An Empire in the Making

A new empire is on the upsurge in the Middle East. The fabled land of Persia, located in a formidable region bordered by the windswept mountains of Central Asia to the north and the Mesopotamian desert to the West, has been home to one of the most ancient civilizations of the world – a land that has seen rulers such as Darius and Cyrus the Great, been sought after by conquerors and challenged the mighty civilizations of its time.

Cognizant of their history and aware of the world around them, the people of Persia have been credited with some of the most important contributions to humanity. Today, Persia is again reasserting itself, poised to oversee what may be one of the most profound geopolitical reconfigurations of our time – the unmistakable debut of a resilient, self-contained empire on a regional scale in what is probably the single most strategically important region of the world.

The decades old Iranian conflict with the West, especially the US, assumed new proportions after the largely unexpected election victory of President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, a purported radical said to have participated as a hostage taker during 1979 crisis at the US Embassy in Teheran. Coupled with the severe ideological differences between the two countries, Iran’s determination to achieve nuclear self sufficiency is widely seen as a mounting challenge to the prevailing balance of power in the Middle East. And with the only nuclear power in the region - Israel - hinting at its inability to curb the nuclear ambitions of its Aryan neighbour, the possibility of a significantly altered Middle East is seeming all the more plausible.

That a new Persian imperialism is on the rise can be gauged from a couple of factors. First, Iran is now presented with colossal, unprecedented opportunities to consolidate and expand its power base. The erroneous American invasion of Mesopotamia and the subsequent empowerment of its Shi’ite majority may have given Iran the very break it was seeking to make inroads into its very important Western neighbour. A strategic blunder of the gargantuan proportions, the invasion of Iraq has unleashed a power that America did not anticipate and is ill-prepared to confront. Iraq’s Shi’ite majority feels a marked empathy towards its Persian neighbour, not least due to the fact that Iran houses some of the most revered Shiite shrines in the world. And with Shi’ite revolutionary parties like the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraqi gaining mainstream acceptance in Iraq, Iran enjoys a special significance in that country. And with coreligionist majorities enjoying influence in Lebanon and pressing for emancipation in Gulf Arab states such as Bahrain as well as in neighbouring Saudi Arabia, Iran may feel tempted to act as the nerve centre for a the region’s Shi’ites, leading a new Shi’ite crescent as King Abdullah put it. Iran may yet become a new core state at the centre of a new Shi’ite civilization.

Secondly, if previous record is anything to go by, Iran is more than likely to cash in on a strategic opportunity, especially one that presents itself so conveniently. Iran’s foreign policy has been consistently guided by an expansionist Islamist ideology. Iran has consistently followed a proactive, opportunistic policy of attempting to injure American and allied interests in the region. Iran’s consistent policy of supporting Hezbollah milita in southern Lebanon in order to harass Israel and to spread its Islamist ideology can be a good predictor of its future strategic choices.

Third, there is considerable reason to expect that Iran may eye Iraq’s oil reserves due to its own rapidly depleting hydrocarbon resources. With a young population, a rapidly expanding economy and a burgeoning military-industrial complex, Iran is seeking to develop industrially. Cheap oil from the second largest oil reserves in the world at its doorstep may provide Iran with just the solution to sustain its growth.

Fourth, Iran is led by a megalomaniacal hardliner who, there is ample reason to believe, may have grand designs for his nation - expansionist plans bordering on the messianic. An Islamist riding on popular support and an unabashedly anti-Israeli agenda, Ahmadinejad has had no qualms about expressing his vitriol for the Jewish state. Recently, Ahmednejad stated that he had felt bathed in a divine “light” that had engulfed him for the duration of his speech at the UN. Furthermore, the Iranian president’s recent decision to appoint a hardline cleric awaiting the return of the mystical 12th Imam as his mentor may provide some orientation as to the direction the Persian nation may take.

And finally, America’s manifestly faltering position in Iraq may invite an Iranian move to fill that power void. Strategic ambivalence resulting from poor planning will probably cost the invading power dearly. There is ample evidence that America is apathetically tolerating the Islamist Shi’ite parties in Iraq such as SCIRI and the openly anti-American Muqtada al Sadr. The latter has secured a massive power base in Iraq without having to compromise on his populist image as an anti-American revolutionary. The recent clamor about not cutting and running may turn out to be a reactionary response to a possibility that now seems increasingly inevitable: the American withdrawal from Iraq, which may materialize sooner rather than later. Whenever it does happen, the surrounding circumstances are almost certain to provide Iran with greatly expanded influence in Iraq. Indeed, events may yet prove that Mesopotamia may be sucked into the orbit of Persia as a satellite state. If that happens, Iran will become the single most powerful nation in the Middle East.

The coming decade will most likely see the emergence of a nuclear armed Iran as the single most influential force in the Middle East, a state at the centre of a revived Persian empire strategically poised to exert its influence on both Europe and Asia. And with the waning of American presence in the middle east coupled with Israeli resignation to Iran’s future, the Persian nation may emerge as a force to be reckoned with.