The Localization Of International Politics

The one element, which seems to be amiss and is hardly considered in the present Middle East crisis, is the role of the domestic politics in the United States. The former Democratic speaker of the House of Representatives, Tip O’Neill, was correct when he stated that all politics are local. It is the domestic politics in the United States, which is fuelling the present crisis, but in a manner that most people have yet to realize.

The Bush administrations’ support of Israel is not so much a result of the historic American pledge to defend Israel, as much as it is a reflection of the sagging fortunes of the Republican party itself. With the November mid-term elections only a few months away, there is a danger that the Republican majorities in both the houses, based on razor thin margins, might be lost and if that happens, the Republican revolution of 1994 will be over. The American support for Israel in the present war in the Middle East is primarily grounded in the desire on the part of the neo-cons of the Republican party to re-energize their core constitutency.

The core constitutency, which the Bush administration is catering to is the evengelical supporters of the Republican Party, who see the existence and defence of Israel as a covenant with God. With the United States bogged down in Iraq and with the situation in Afghanistan fast turning from euphoria to dispair, the core constituency of the Republican Party saw its political believes gradually discarded and their political attainment slipping beyond its grasp. The political idealism and believe structure of the American evengelicals, who supported the Bush administration in 2000 and re-elected it in 2004, have been suffering one policy set back after another since 2003 invasion of Iraq.

They have also started to question the political intentions of the Bush administration and the neo-cons within it as a deviation from the stated policies of the Republican party, as those policies were re-confirmed in the party’s election manifesto of 2004. This growing disenchantment, between the core supporters of the Republican party and its officals in the Bush administration, has periodically spilled over into the public domain in form of intra-party policy disagreements. The result of all this disharmony in the Republican Party has been that it has lost its political focus and cohesion, which girded it ideologically and allowed it to pummel the Democrats in 2000 and 2004.

With the mid-term elections looming and the Repuplican fears of retaining their majorities increasing as the intra-party fissures spread, over policy issues and policy implementations, the Repuplican Party is realizing that it cannot win the Congressional elections of 2006, without the committed support of the American evengelicals. By suppporting Israel unconditionally, even though most American diplomats privately admit the long term damages to the American Middle East interests from such a policy, the Bush adminstration is heralding a return to its ideological stance, which it hopes will find favor with its’ core constituents and allow it to win the mid-term Congressional elections in 2006.

Consequently, the United States’ government will offer unconditional support to Israel in the present conflict in hopes of regaining its lost political influence with the American evengelical groups that support the Republican party. This would also explain, why the United States does not favor an immediate cease-fire in the conflict. It also suggests that with an eye to the mid-term elections in November 2006, the United States will not support any end of hostilities, which do not favor Israeli interests, before the November elections.

Through such a policy, the United States seems to be suggesting a political schedule to the Israeli government that it has till November in which to wrap up the problem in Lebanon, with Hizbollah. In either case, this seems to be a credible date for the end of hostitilies, because if the Democrats regain the control of the Congress, they might seek to impose a slight rein on Israeli actions and if the Republicans manage to retain their influence in Congress, they will have to agree to a cease-fire under a mounting international pressure. In this sense, the international community, though it is making demands for an immediate cease-fire, is realistically not optimistic about such an eventuality till after November 2006 Congressional elections are over in the United States.

Hence, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon-Hizbollah will not be allowed to become a regional crisis, but it will be allowed to simmer locally for the near foreseeable future.