Chief Justice’s Chess

The current judicial crisis was ignited with the coercion of the Chief Justice by the ever-lasting Army Chief and the ‘referendum-ratified’ President of the country. Instead of bemoaning this event we ought to be grateful to the country’s most powerful man. He has unwittingly opening the possibility for revamping our State and its institutions. Forget his stale agenda for enlightened moderation and democratic reform. It is his current ‘non-judicial’ action which will be most remembered.

The present season of untoward happenings brings to mind the importance of freak events that can trigger major transformations in nations, regions and across the globe. These events invariably occur in unstable regions where institutions have not been established or have started to fail. This is not to suggest that we are witnessing the equivalent of the killing of the Archduke in Sarajevo which ignited World War I, or the dismantling of old Russia in 1991 by the masterstroke of Gorbachev’s Perestroika. What we may be seeing is the dawning of realization in significant number of citizens - not surprisingly, those of the legal community - that the blatant and continued violation of law by the representatives of the State will promote a rapid decline of the nation into catastrophic lawlessness. That unless the sanctity of the judiciary is restored and justice is made transparent and applicable to all, macroeconomic progress spouted by this government as its major success will be reduced to a sham.

Why has this realization taken so long to occur? Are we witnessing a transformational phase in this country? Or is this a mere blip in the collective realization of our malaise only to disappear with the application of further coercion or balm? Is there an easy way to understand it? Let’s see if the ancient game of chess, founded in these parts, can give any useful insights.

There is the fable of an ancient Indian mathematician who invented chess. The emperor of India was so pleased with the game that he asked the mathematician to take anything in his kingdom. The mathematician replied with utmost modesty: I only ask for a meager amount of rice placed on the squares of the chessboard: one grain of rice on the first square, two for the second, four for the third, and so on. Each successive square would have grains of rice double the number of the prior square until all 64 squares of the chessboard have had their said amounts.

The total number of grains of rice on the first half of the chessboard is 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 + 128 + 256 + 512 + 1024 ... + 2,147,483,648, for a total of exactly 232 − 1 = 4,294,967,295 grains of rice, or about 100,000 kg of rice, with the mass of one grain of rice being roughly 25 mg. This amount is about 1/1,000,000th of total rice production in India per annum (in 2005)!

The total number of grains of rice on the second half of the chessboard is 232 + 233 + 234 ... + 263, for a total of 264 − 232 grains of rice. This is about 460 billion tonnes, or 6 times the entire weight of the Earth’s biomass!

On the 64th square of the chessboard there would be exactly 263 = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice. In total, on the entire chessboard there would be exactly 264 − 1 = 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of rice.

What’s all this grain computation got to do with the CJ and Pakistan?

The chess fable illustrates the consequence of exponential growth! It begins slowly and no one notices. But then before you know it you have reached the center of the chess board and things really begin to make an impact. Smart societies latch onto potential exponential perturbations much earlier through their sensitive institutional antennas and avoid run-away changes that wreak havoc. Some, like ours, wake up at the brink of disaster and rush to put their homes in order. If only our politicians and educated helmsmen had transferred their knowledge of growth of personal wealth to that of exponential growth of our problems – same mathematics, different application – we may have avoided the mess we find ourselves in.

The CJ has pointed out that we are in the middle of the chess board and headed for cumulative disaster.

I recall the day I sat in the Supreme Court listening to managers of the New Murree project represent their case in front of the full bench. There is a heinous plan to transform the pristine forest of Patriata that naturally filters the water for the twin cities of Pindi and Islamabad into a pleasure ground for the ridiculously rich of this country. Before us was the demolition plan of a unique ecosystem with direct economic and health benefits to millions of people.

A few weeks before this historical suo moto hearing in the Supreme Court, the CJ had received a dossier opposing the proposed destruction of Patriata forest. It brought to his attention the setting up by the Punjab government of the New Murree project with its luxury hotels and the for-foreigners-only enclaves. Within hours of reading the material and consulting his colleagues he had issued orders to call to court the New Murree Development Authority and Punjab’s Chief Secretary (who did not appear) fully aware of the authority’s backing by the big muscles of the country. Due to the timely intervention by the CJ work on the Patriata ridge was stopped until proper assurance about protection of the environment was provided by the developers. A reliable source tells me that this order holds. The press, however, ought to present frequent updates to the public and remain vigilant.

The lesson to be learnt from all this is that even a single person in a key position of power can create significant tremors within a flawed system, eventually leading to reform. This can embolden institutions such as the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency to shows its teeth and stop destructive mega-projects such as the Centaurus high-rise buildings complex in Islamabad. It can curb the excesses of the Capital Development Authority, and prevent its overzealous Chairman from ruining the natural wilderness. It can stop the take-over of Sindh’s two islands by Arab companies. It could make consultancy firms honest, which otherwise mint money justifying environment-destroying projects. It could compel environmental NGOs and national institutions to work on pressing issues, providing effective solutions rather than the cosmetic ones that foreign donors often demand of them.

The coming days and months will determine if, having reached the middle of the chess board, we can see beyond and avert the disaster that is on the other side. The CJ has shown the way; it is for us to convert this ‘crisis’ into a boon.