The New Bedfellows

It has been often contended that the civil society of Pakistan is far ahead in thinking compared to civil-military establishment and the politicians. This proposition seems truer now than ever before. Yet, in complete disregard for the wishes of the people, new alliances are being made. It is as if the old order is not ready to accept the new realities.

Despite inheriting distrust of the politicians, General Musharraf has had to deal with them all. The role of MMA finished when the seventeenth amendment to the constitution was passed and General Musharraf got a new lease of life. PML-Q has served till late but its poor performance in bailing out Musharraf both out of judicial as well as the red mosque crisis has left a bad taste in the mouth. If there was a period of doubts, it is over now.

PPP is a different case. It is against rowdies, who are bent on destroying the peace of the country. It is enlightened and moderate, and in a situation in which Pakistan finds itself, it is a party to be trusted. Obscurantism must be shunned. General Musharraf had made up his mind long time back. If Pakistan is to survive, it needs to radically modernize itself. It is probably because of this that he had no qualms in giving more than Colin Powell asked him for, almost six years ago.

With Benazir Bhutto, Musharraf can form an ideological alliance. He can be assured of the continuation of his policies: the most pronounced that of being the junior partner in the war against terror. None of his present allies has been as vocal on this issue as Benazir has been.

Benazir’s statements on the war on terror have proved sufficient enough to please Washington. US, which saw no alternative to Musharraf till late, has at least started contemplating a role for Benazir to rule side-by-side Musharraf in the coming years. Washington encourages such an arrangement for it will keep the military on board on one hand, and would bring down the public unrest on the other.

Pakistan army is stretched to its limit. Ms Bhutto will help the military like her father before her, who brought some 90,000 prisoners of war home in the aftermath of humiliating defeat in the 1971 war. Benazir may have been corrupt but she can rescue Pakistan. She enjoys a good reputation in the West and can avoid such problems as an attack on the North West borderland by the allied forces and a halt in the flow of US aid.

As an aggressive Prime Minister, she can also take the brunt of the extremists from within Pakistan. Up to now President Musharraf has dealt with it all. Now that he is getting on in years, he needs a successor who is ready to peruse his policies towards modernization and development.

With PPP on board, Musharraf would definitely kill, or at least seriously weaken the future opposition. Nawaz Sharif has already been cornered. All his erstwhile friends and party members have taken a shade under the protective khaki uniform. This time the share for PML-N and for the MMA would be even less, and a relative majority for Ms Bhutto would be ensured. A road for development, progress, enlightenment and moderation would thus be cleared.

In the face of a reinvigorated Judiciary, and with the fears of some, if not all, of the extra-constitutional executive actions being challenged in the Supreme Court, it is best for General Musharraf to be on the sidelines. He needs the constitution on his side and is no more on dictating terms. The president would be content with his policies being implemented. If there has to be a confrontation between the executive and judiciary, the Prime Minister will deal with it. A stronger Prime Minister is needed for this reason. The present one, having no personality and popular support, dismally failed to protect the president.

Can Musharraf then paint himself in the corner? Can he be content with the usual presidential powers? Can someone, who has enjoyed unlimited power at the top, withdraw himself? He can’t have all. A stronger Benazir is not likely to be easily controlled. We have seen how popular leaders have been historically been hard to tame. Junejo got out of Zia’s hands; Jamali got out of Musharraf’s. Will it be that easy then for Musharraf to pull strings sitting at the back? Is another confrontation in the making?

Popular support has its own dynamics. We have seen how the Chief Justice felt so strong when he received public sympathy and support. Benazir’s stature as a popular is sure to cause problems for Musharraf. But it can also be protective and soothing if Musharraf gradually withdraws himself from the mainstream political controversies.

It is not going to be smooth sailing for Benazir. We are living in difficult times. Her hard line stance against the Islamists would keep her on her toes, and would require military support all the time. Rising inflation, and the rising hope of common people would also challenge her in ways more than one. Also, she may have to form alliances in the center as well as in the provinces, which would reduce her power to a considerable extent.

General Musharraf cannot have it all either. If he has to survive at all, he has to now learn to share power. Uniform is the thing of the past. The chances for him to retain it, are indeed low. Consequently, he will have to be content with the usual presidential powers, which are still quite overwhelming. He would keep the power to remove the prime minister and will also exert power through the body he made himself—the National Security Council, where he would be central as a link between the civil government and the military.