India Votes for Stability

The Indian Voter loves to confound the pundits and pollsters alike. Against all predictions, it has returned the Sonia-Singh team to power with a comfortable lead. All results are not in at the time of this writing but it appears certain that the Congress and its allies will have enough seats to form the government with the help, if necessary, of some smaller parties. The Congress has made gains in almost every state, except Bihar, and has staged a remarkable comeback in U.P which it had lost since the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992.

The results show the wisdom of the Indian voter who has endorsed the dignified way in which Dr. Manmohan Singh has managed governance of the country during the last five years and Sonia Gandhi’s solid backing of Dr. Singh in the matter of governance, while keeping political management of her own party as well as the coalition partners in her own hands. The Party has done extremely well in the metropolitan cities which shows that the urban middle class also approves Dr. Manmohan Singh’s policies.

While it is too early to do a detailed analysis, some tentative observations can be made: The BJP’s negative campaign, calling Dr. Manmohan Singh weak and “nikamma� backfired while Dr. Singh’s dignified demeanor during the campaign helped the Congress. L.K. Advani was seen to be a tired old leader whose sole contribution to the national politics was the demolition of Babri Masjid and communalising politics. The BJP’s campaign against the government’s handling of terrorism was effectively countered by the Congress as the record of the BJP-led government was even worse; it was during its rule that the Parliament was attacked and its foreign minister was seen on television around the world escorting terrorist hijackers to Kandahar.

An important outcome of the election has been the weakness in the influence of the Left parties. It was feared that the Congress will need to go back to the Left Front to form a government, in which case, Prakash Karat would have exacted a hefty pound of flesh for extending his support. The Congress should now be able to form a government without the support of the Left and implement its agenda of economic reforms without hindrance. Another important outcome is the weakening of the dalit leader Mayawati in U.P, who was being projected as a potential Prime Minister if the Third Front had obtained enough seats. This would hopefully act as a sobering influence on her and lead to a less arrogant Chief Minister.

The election has also seen the passing of the Congress baton from mother to son. Rahul Gandhi played a prominent role as a campaigner in this election and seems to have impressed voters with his charm, modesty and maturity. He seems to have particularly captured the imagination of the youth of the country. The way in which he has resisted the pressure of his party men and women to project him as the Prime Minister shows that he is a sensible man and not easily vulnerable to sycophancy. Instead, he would perhaps serve as an “apprentice� in Manmohan Singh’s next cabinet.

When detailed results are known, it will be found that the Congress has regained the trust of the minorities that it had lost. Muslims, who had abandoned the Congress after the demolition of the Babri Masjid, have come back to their old home and have probably played a decisive role in the Congress victories in places like U.P and West Bengal. Sikhs, too, seem to have forgiven the Party after it chose to get rid of people like Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar who are believed to have instigated riots against the Sikhs in Delhi in 1984; their support may have played a significant role in the Congress victory in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.

L.K. Advani is likely to accept that he is not destined to be the Prime Minister and resign as the leader of the Party. This means that the clamour for Narendra Modi to assume the leadership of the BJP will get louder. The leadership of the Party is his for the asking but it is to be seen if he would like to give up the comfort of the Chief Ministership in Gujarat to warm the opposition benches in Delhi for five years.

The re-election of Dr. Manmohan Singh should bring comfort in both Washington and Islamabad. Barack Obama apparently thinks highly of Dr. Singh; more importantly, the U.S does not have to worry about the “pesky� communists derailing the smooth bilateral relationship between Indian and the U.S.A. The U.S was particularly afraid of the Third Front coming to power with the support of either the Congress or the BJP. As far as Pakistan is concerned, it is probably too busy in domestic turbulence to pay attention to the Indian domestic scene, but it too should be happy to not having to reconfigure its relationship with its big neighbour with a new government.

All in all a good result for India.