So What Gives?

Those who have followed Jaswant Singh’s achievements in the last two BJP-led central governments will readily acknowledge his ability to project a strategic vision and pursue it in a sustained, politically astute manner. His series of behind-the-scene dialogues with Phil Talbot helped India come out of the international pariah status post the 1998 nuclear explosions. These negotiations not only improved his party’s image in American eyes, but also contributed to an amicable and trusting relationship between the two countries that helped the Manmohan Singh government in no small measure in arriving at an exceptional agreement on nuclear cooperation. If America needed to feel assured that such a nuclear cooperation would not become a matter of regret and a liability should the Congress government be replaced by the right wing BJP, Jaswant Singh’s strategic dialogues under Vajpayee surely provided it with such an assurance.

Meanwhile, the Indian press talked about Jaswant Singh’s closeness with the Clintons through such trivia as the young Ms. Clinton referring to him as “Uncle”, which may or may not have been accurately reported. Jaswant Singh brought back the hijacked passengers from Kandahar, and subsequently deflected the criticism of having given-in to terrorist demands by saying that he was merely covering up for Advani like a good party loyalist. His earlier book(s) created around him an aura of a thinking, intellectual statesman on the lines of Pandit Nehru who was known for his “Discovery of India”.

And yet, all along, Jaswant Singh also maintained an image of his meek respect and total submission to the BJP hierarchy. His recent self portrait as the loyal Hanuman of the BJP shows a certain savvy for image projection.

All this track record should show Jaswant Singh to be a very able politician who has the pulse of his electorate, of his own party of the past many decades, of the megatrends in world politics, and of the currents and under-currents within political India.

Against such a background, the recent series of events starting with the publication of his new book on Jinnah and the Partition and culminating with his expulsion from the BJP would seem self-defeating, or even suicidal. His statement just after the book got published, saying that having taken a stand against the party’s professed convictions he was “ready for the noose” indicates he knew how the party would react. Why would a mature politician and loyal party member turn suicidal? There has to be a method to this madness.

As shown by the recent Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s mass appeal seems to have eroded. Its Hindutwa related rhetoric, whatever its original and intended merit, has been successfully reinterpreted and projected by the opponents as a narrow, parochial vision for the country, if not downright communal and dangerous path for a civilized society to take.

In internal party meetings, BJP researchers are reported to have concluded that Hindutwa and Narendra Modi’s extreme right wing policies have hurt BJP’s prospects of returning to the helm of affairs in India. Yet, there does not seem to be a clear acceptance of such an analysis within the BJP leadership. Modi and even Advani seem to be unwilling or unable to jettison the baggage cultivated by them as a winning political platform for so many years starting around the Ayodhya days.

With Pakistan showing progress towards a commitment to democracy, rebuilding its institutions on democratic lines, and manifestly trying to rid itself of its past misdeeds; and seeing the active political and financial support its present leaders are getting from the United States, it is becoming increasingly clear that the BJP supporters need to have a viable alternative to Advani and Modi and their outdated policies.

As it is, there has been a leadership vacuum in BJP after Vajpayee’s retirement, and it is not clear whether Advani with his advanced age will be around as a force to reckon with during the next elections. Narendra Modi has been talked about a potential leader due to the success of economic policies in Gujarat and his success in turning Gandhiji’s Gujarat into a strongly right-wing electorate. Yet his popularity remains confined to a small section of India – he is not welcome in many Indian states, and the only Super Power routinely refuses him a visa.

Given such an evolving background, Jaswant Singh’s latest book is designed to show to the world in general, and the USA and the moderate Indian electorate in particular, that he is the next best candidate to lead the country when Congress next loses power. Even the fallout of the publication of the Jaswant Singh’s book, and his expulsion from BJP, should be seen as an essential temporary setback, in Jaswant’s quest to become Prime Minister. While Narendra Modi’s reflex action in banning the book in the state of Gujarat, and his attempts to seek a country-wide ban can be seen as symptoms of political rivalry, in effect such actions only help Modi and BJP look bad. Not a bad development for Jaswant Singh.

As the political game unfolds, we should not be surprised if the BJP sees in Jaswant Singh its next leader who has the potential to lead it to success in the national elections, and invites him back with honor. Such a development would naturally be resisted tooth and nail by the Modi and his supporters in the party, but they would not succeed. The other option would be for Jaswant Singh to start his own BJP-like party, but that would only delay BJP’s return to power.

Time will tell.