From the Continuum

Greetings from the Kew (pronounced Q) continuum. For those not familiar with our omnipotent species (a rather caricatured view of us was presented on Star Trek - The next generation, a show that needless to say, is no longer on the air) we are the ultimate travelers of the universe. We use the first person plural pronoun in referring to ourselves and time and space offer us no obstacles. As you have probably guessed (if you have not, then it is probably better that you cease all attempts to read further at this point) the mysteries of the universe are no mysteries to us and we travel extensively. In this particular account, we will be referring to our visit to the alpha quadrant. To be more specific (a quadrant does encompass a volume far larger than anything most humans can imagine) to the Milky Way Galaxy which contains the Solar System and the planet Earth.

What is that we hear? Even a single planet is too large for you puny mortals to comprehend? Oh, very well then! If you must insist then we will specify additional coordinates. At this present time, my attention is focused on the southern part of the continent of Asia on a country that calls itself Pakistan!

Pakistan, the land of the pure (a sobriquet on which we choose to reserve judgment) is not at all unlike its bigger neighbor to the south east. They both seem to enjoy congregating in large numbers to watch a bunch of people in white clothes hit a cherry red round object all over a large field. We have yet to arrive at a complete understanding of this ritual but given the concentration and time invested in it, it probably signifies some kind of a highly evolved religion. It does remain unclear though, why these two neighbors (with common religions) continue to be at each others throats. Interesting as that discussion might be, we will refrain from it (at least for the current time). This particular venture into the land of the pure is to examine their new found drive towards wealth and prosperity for all its citizens.

The economic picture in this, the land of the pure, has not been very encouraging for most of the 50 years of its existence. Over twenty billion dollars in foreign aid over the last twenty or so years has been instrumental in keeping the economy afloat (those in need of proof of our omniscience can confirm these and all other figures from sources like the CIA fact book on Pakistan). Foreign aid though, is not something that any people can count on for ever. And as times have changed, this vital resource has begun to shrink. To counteract this the government has instated a policy of fast track economic growth - succeeding in generating real growth of 5 to 6 percent, making Pakistan one of the fastest growing economies in the modern world. Population pressures continue to be the key though. At its present rate the population will double in 25 years, effectively negating the results of the growing economy. But these (we suspect) are well known facts and such of limited interest for the purpose of the present discussion.

The more interesting question is the direction chosen for the newly restructured economy. As is the case with several of its so called third world comrades, Pakistan has opted to align itself economically with the powerful industrialized nations. A useful tactic, particularly if these countries are the only realistic source of the investment vital to the success of any sustained growth. But is it a wise choice for the long term prosperity of its own people?

At this point it is not difficult to imagine the stirrings of a heartfelt protest arising in at least a significant percentage of our readers. Hardly surprising, when one considers that the these are the very same people most likely to benefit the most from the direction that the nations seems to be choosing for itself. "It is not just a matter of making the middle class more prosperous", one can hear the cry go up. "Can't you see that a stronger middle class will be able to invest in the economy and provide more employment thus spreading the fruits of prosperity over the spectrum of society?"

We Kew have no political leanings (though some wise asses have been known to smirk at that statement) and so I will desist from interjecting my own comments at this point. It is however, interesting to note what Professor John Kenneth Galbraith has to say on this - "Trickle down economics is like feeding oats to one end of a horse, and expecting the birds to subsist on the droppings that result from the other end". Be that as it may, we will ignore Prof. Galbraith's little dig for the time being. Let us stipulate that with the world wide decline of socialism and demand side economics it would be political suicide for any government to talk about anything other than the supply side model. But there are ways to grow an economy and then there are ways to grow an economy.

"We have become a nation obsessively devoted to high stakes financial maneuvering as a short cut to wealth". A fair description of Pakistan or India, or China (or several other "emerging markets")? Maybe, but it was used by John Maynard Keynes to describe the United States of America - just before the great depression of the 1930s. The reference made by Prof. Keynes is to the type of efforts resorted to in an attempt to maintain prosperity. The great industrialized societies of modern times have built on just that - INDUSTRY! It is only when these societies moved away from manufacturing and into the fast growing sector of services that we first began to observe chinks in their hitherto impenetrable economic armor.

Industrial production in Pakistan accounts for 20% of the GDP and agriculture for another 25% (with agriculture employing 50% of the labor force), you do the math but it sure looks like there appears to be considerable room for improvement in the "productive" side of the economy. So what does Pakistan do? The push is on to march into the twenty first century. Communications is thriving (a cellular phone in every {middle class} pocket - soon), the financial and banking sector is booming (stocks, loans, investments), foreign automakers are flocking and building/construction is accelerating to breakneck pace (we will continue to ignore the political/law and order situations in Karachi and Sind in general). Wonderful! Maybe the supply siders actually know what they are doing! Except that one should notice that except for the automotive industry, none of the other growth areas listed above have any significant
impact on industrial production. These appear to be service based sectors that do not actually produce but yearn for fast returns on the backs of nothing. Even the construction "industry" becomes nothing more than high stakes gambling as people speculate on the growth in real estate prices and dump projects that slip even marginally in providing fat returns. Maybe things are not so wonderful after all, especially if one keeps in mind the history of post Reagan America - more jobs at lower pay!

We at the continuum may be omnipotent but we are not immune to headaches. And that is what such analyses tend to give us (our readers probably suffer worse fates). So we will stop here, for now. In future visits we will stay away from dry subjects and focus on things of more interest. Politics, Cricket and SEX! That got your attention didn't it?



Adios from Kew!


[Author's Note: Kew from his vantage point is able to see issues in quantum entirety. Though he makes an effort to explain what he knows, it is nevertheless difficult to understand him without introspection. Readers are suggested to read Kew when they have the time to think.]