Navaid March 21, 2000

Tags: SA , peace , democracy

This paper discusses how the seed of conflict is sown in our evolving identity. It traces the events that has caused escalation of tension, discusses Clinton’s upcoming visit, and speculates the future of the subcontinent.

href="/tag/India">India and Pakistan, the Siamese twins, surviving through a painful birth and division, sibling rivalry that leads to war, and identities interwoven what one does affect the other. It is essential for us to understand the other’s point of view, what is the core of their identity and what is most sacred to them. Then only can we start thinking about living together.

Lets start by taking a look at India and its ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Believe it or not BJP is an extremist party. They have a fundamentalist Hindu doctrine that was the key for it to come into power. The concept of Hindutva or Hindu national identity has been the root thought of the BJP government. Indian courts have been fighting the rise of fundamentalist Hindu powers. It is against Indian election laws to appeal for votes on the ground of religion. This has resulted in Bombay court nullifying election seats won, and later over turned by the Supreme Court. The battles have been fought not only in the courtroom but all forms of media, and other public forums.

I would advice every Indian and Pakistani to read the philosophy which drives BJP (http://www.bjp.org/philo.htm). It has very interesting views of the world. Heed this warning: it is not their view alone, there is a reality behind it that is backed by a majority vote in India. For Muslims, and especially my fellow Pakistanis it is hard to read, because it sometimes strikes deep wounds. Now, if you are scared of the BJP, take a look at the RSS, the secret militant Hindu organization, of which most BJP leaders are lifelong members. (http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/1998/03/03/intl/intl.5.htm l)

BJP rose to power after years of weak governments in India. The whole concept of Hindutva was to carve out an Indian identity. The BJP is seeking to create a Hindu renaissance, and in part it is succeeding. It draws heavily on cultural history of India, but puts a heavy reference to the Arabs, Mughals, Afghans and British powers that have raped the land for centuries. It references the evolution of Christian State, and the West to the modern Separate State-Religion Democracy based on Technology and Commerce. However, it depicts Islam as a stagnant religion, that does not promote progress, has not evolved in thought in its1500 years of existence, brought intolerance to the region, cause bloodshed and has resulted in the division of the nation. The philosophy shows how each invader has tarnished the identity of the Hindu, and how they must now re-seek their identity in their own historical symbols from the Geeta, Vedas and other sacred Hindu value systems.

Lets try to examine the stagnant Islam, the Islam that does not promote evolution and growth. Taking a casual look at Encyclopedia Britannica we can search for “Islam Science”, and find a whole history of influence of Islam on the modern world.

(http://search.britannica.com/bcom/search/results/1, 5843,,00.html?p_query0=islam%20science)

For specific reference of advances Islam has made to the sciences, please refer to a comprehensive list of Muslim scientists, mathematicians and philosophers provided by MuslimsOnline.com, which is referenced by Britannica itself.

(http://www.muslimsonline.com/~azahoor/)

How can BJP just ignore the achievements of Islam and call it stagnant? In fact how can they minimize the tremendous influence the invading cultures have had on India? We can look back at the British with hatred as an occupying force, and reject everything they brought to us. Had the British not invaded our homeland, would we have the railway infrastructure that has been the backbone of our economies? If we had not spoken English, would we be in the information technology race of today? Or would we have had a huge language barrier to the western world, as China does today? These are just two of the millions influences that other cultures have had on us. We can hate them for it, or we can look at it as part of our history, appreciate how it all played out, and how it has made us who we are today.

For the Muslims of India, a Hindutva identity is absolutely out of the question. So in this respect, Hindutva fails to encompass one fifth of the people it is trying to unite. In a democracy having religion-based majority can be very dangerous. It can become a hoard mentality, where the rights of the minority are not protected. The likes of Bal Thackeray in power are what every Muslim and Christian has feared in India, and across the border.

When it rose to power, BJP had a ultra-Hindu stance, with promises to “Crush Pakistan and teach it a lesson.” This type of talk has much de-stabilizing effect across the region. The rise of BJP has had a much larger influence on Pakistan than anyone can imagine which closely tracks the changes in India. Being smaller in size, a small shift in India, results in a much wider and broader change in Pakistan. For example in1998 BJP increased Indian military spending by 14%, Pakistan reacted with a 20% increase, to counter the sheer might and number of the Indian side.

(http://www.nyu.edu/globalbeat/southasia/tiwar060598. html)

This has affected every aspect of life in Pakistan. The biggest victim has been the education sector, which has a shameful 2.3% of budget allocation. (What is the future of a nation that does not invest in the education of its youths?) Similarly the Hindutva calls rang aloud in the ears of the Pakistani clergy who in turn called for a strong Islamic identity.

So lets take a look at the Pakistani identity? I know I am going to insight a lot of passion here. What makes us good Pakistanis?

Being Muslims, being proud of Muslim heritage, of achievements of Islam on history, science, of Islam being the fastest growing religion in the world, of having a nuclear arsenal, of standing up for the rights of other fellow Muslims who live under suppressive regimes around the world. We are very proud to have liberated Afghanistan, and will help resolve Kashmir.

Most of us trace our ancestry to Arabs, Persians, Mughals or Turks. Special merits go to those who track ancestry to Royal or directly to descendents of the Prophet. This is very fine, until you take an anthropological view of the situation, and compare it to East Africa. Most of the Swahili people from Kenya claim the same decent as we do. All of the merits, gains, and richness of their society are attributed to the Arabs, or Persians. They have a very rich culture that is much more than what a few thousand Arabs or Persians brought along, yet they do not realize this. To someone from outside the region it seems ridiculous that these people deny their own culture that existed before the Arabs came. It is obvious that the rich culture survived and just assimilated Islam into its value system. To someone from outside, these people look as African as they come. Yet the one- percent foreign blood molds their identity.

Similarly, it is very hard for us to even contemplate that most of the Muslims in the Indian subcontinent were not direct descendents. They converted to Islam under the reign of the “merciful” Muslim rulers. Just realize this, though our national history give examples of their mercy, world history from across the globe tells us that Muslim excursions to spread Islam were not so merciful, or tolerant of the pagans who worshiped idols. Furthermore, it is hard for a Pakistani to appreciate that much of our folklore, songs, traditions, customs, myths, and everyday life style did not all originated from the Arabs, Persians, Mughals, but evolved over thousands of years in the subcontinent with our ancestors, right here in the Indus valley.

The ancient cultures of the Indus Valley civilization, including Harrappa and Mohenjo-daro, date back to 3300 BC. These cultures were rich in scripts, trade, architecture, art, music and customs. They were highly developed and technologically (relative to the times) sophisticated civilization. The archeological studies hint towards ancient practices of farmers, fisherman, pottery and other basic of life, which have strong resemblance to practices, used today in certain parts of Pakistan. These cultures were also the birthplace of the Hindu religion. (http://www.harappa.com/har/harres0.html)

Another thing to consider is the population size of the Muslims in the subcontinent. Of course, there are exceptions to this, but for most part, the 440 million Muslims of the subcontinent can not all be offspring’s of a few thousand Arabs, Persian, Turks and Afghans that came over. Especially since the total current population of Mid-East is just about 150 million.

This is a sticking thorn, and strikes deep at the heart of Muslims and Hindus. It is a global trend for Muslims to trace their ancestry to Arabs and Persians, and deny the ancient cultures. On the other hand, Hindus feel they are invaded, looted, raped and forced into another religions. This is something that is deep rooted and a source of our identity.

Apart from the original cultures of the Indus Valley, we borrow heavily from the cultures of the neighboring Indian states of Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Plus we have an a lot of influence from the immigrants who brought in cultures of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana, Andra Pradesh and many other states deep within India. Similarly, India has to appreciate the richness of the Arabian and Persian influence on its cultures.

Examples of deep Indian nature of our culture is can be seen in every aspect of our lives, including our marriage traditions, superstitious myths, and even Qawali music that we consider Islamic. According to Hindu mythology classical music has a divine origin. Both the Vedic and the Gandharva systems of music were nurtured in the hermitage of Rishis, and songs of devotion and prayers are an integral to prayer and traditions. Amir Khusroo, father of Qawali (Kawali) style of music, showed his remarkable genius 900 years ago by combining the concept and themes of the religious Indian ragas with devote songs to saints of Islam. The chorus of claps signifies how angles in Islam are said to clap when divine souls are in their presence. Qawali music evolved over time and is not only enjoyed by Muslims and Hindus alike, but thanks to Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan, it has a significant following around the globe.

Another thing hard for Pakistani Muslims is to appreciate the achievements of Indians, especially Hindus. However, Pakistanis are just as disillusioned about Indians as they are about us. I would advice everyone to take time to browse through the India contribution website:

(http://www.hindubooks.org/sudheer_birodkar/india_contribu tion/). This is an amazing historic compilation of achievements by Indian. It is not well known that important concepts like medical surgery, geometry, algorithms, the zero, astronomy, cosmology, measurement of the Earth’s circumference and orbit arose in India several centuries before their rediscovery around the world and in the West.

The aim of this discussion is to show no matter how different we think we are as Muslims and Hindus, our cultural heritage is the same, and that should be able to appreciate the cultural differences and achievements of the other side.

Another aspect of our identity is helping suffering Muslims. For Muslims the concept of brotherhood has always existed in history. Since the partition, Pakistan has always provided support for the struggle in Kashmir. However, “helping fellow Muslims” philosophy was given a new dimension once we entered the Afghan conflict. To understand the situation as it panned out, let us look back and trace the tragedy of the Afghanistan, and its link to the chain of events leading to the recent escalation of tension.

The people of Afghanistan paid a heavy price for being the playground for Russia and America to fight out their ideological differences. The society has been ravaged by years of war, and destruction. With more weapons and opium than food and medicine the social fabric has disintegrated, and the people of the land are reduced to anarchy. Under such extreme conditions, only extreme faith can enable the people to survive. What else can desperate people can cling to for hope? For war ravaged people faith in Islam is extreme and is as distorted as their reality.

What the world has to bare witness is the repercussions of this proxy war on the events that followed. First people to feel the affect were the neighboring countries to Afghanistan. To the North lie Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. To the East lie Pakistan, India, and China. To the West lies Iran.

Pakistan beings the biggest supporter has felt the most impact from the war. At the peak we housed more than three million Afghan immigrants, who brought along their guns, drugs and extreme religious views. Currently there are said to be around 700,000 refugees remaining in Pakistan. Because of their influence on Kashmir, and their role in the lucrative weapon and drug trafficking network, the Afghans (1% of the population) tends to have a disproportionately large influence on the whole of Pakistan.

The drug and weapon trafficking that came with out Afghan guests, has had a heavy toll on Pakistan. There are 4.3M drug addicts in the country, that is 3.6% of the population. (http://www.ipcs.org/issues/articles/187-pak-suba.htm) Last year, it cost $56M for rehabilitation and control measures. Although no official figures exist, it is believed that one fourth of Pakistan’s GDP comes from drug money. Even more dangerous is the combination of drugs and arms. Can we stop ourselves from becoming the next Columbia? The good news is that drug eradication and alternative (DEA) efforts have helped reduce drug production in Pakistan. There was a 26% drop from 1997 to 1998. However, production in Afghanistan has ballooned, and now accounts for 40% of the world’s opium production. Iran and Pakistan are the main trafficking routes for Afghan drug trade.

(http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/pk.html http://www.state.gov/www/global/narcotics_law/1998_narc_repo rt/statements98_explan.html

http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_a ffairs/speeches/archives/1999/ps020299.html)

In a city such as Karachi, this combination of weapons, drugs and extremism has left a bloody trail through the late eighties and nineties. Countries such as the USA were founded with the right of the citizen to bare arms imbedded in the constitution. However, introduction of arms to a culture that traditionally solves disputes through other means can be disastrous. Fights that were settled by sticks were now fought with bursts of AK-47 bullets. The social ramifications were horrendous.

Following the end of the Afghan war, one can track the out flow of Afghan weapons and freedom fighters (seeking a cause) to hot spots of Muslim uprisings across Asia, Europe and Africa. These weapons gave new teeth to dormant freedom struggles in Palestine, Egypt, Algeria, Sudan, Central Africa, Bosnia, China, Chechnya and Kashmir.

Of course, now the circle comes back to Kashmir. The struggle of Kashmir plays a center stage in our identity as Pakistanis. Traditionally if a political leader wants to rise emotions, they can do it in the name of Islam or Kashmir. Anyone opposing them would be considered either un-Islamic or non-Patriotic. It was a trump card in any political rally. With the advent of the armed uprising in Kashmir, Politicians have played this card very frequently to gain prominence. Meanwhile, on the other side of the border, rising Muslim voices, the Kashmir struggle and the increasingly annoying Pakistan gave BJP extra fuel to form a national identity based on Hindutva. Of course, the repercussions of BJP coming to power were huge in Pakistan. Politicians with moderate views suddenly started singing the songs of extreme religious leaders, as the masses started paying heed to the open threat from next door. There was an increase in calls to arms for the political resistance groups in Kashmir, and a lot of the Afghan weapons and fighters made their way into Kashmir. It is not a coincidence that the armed uprising in Kashmir started after the end of the Afghan war. The flow of arms and organized training in guerilla warfare, from war hardened Afghans commanders set the stage for a sustainable uprising that could stand up to the 600,000 Indian troops stationed in the Valley.

PLO once branded a terrorist organization by the West a decade ago now enjoys limited autonomy and was visited by President Clinton. Would not Pakistan like to see the same fate for Kashmir? We would all go to heaven for playing a role in getting them the right to their freedom. What are we willing to stake to liberate Kashmir? Most of us are willing to give some form of assistance. The formula is simple, provide moral support, pump in more arms, train the freedom fighters in Afghanistan, and let the Pakistani army provide auxiliary support. But the question is interpreted as what can we afford to give up. We never think about what it is costing the Kashmir’s in terms of their lives. In the best case, the uprising in Kashmir reaches a new level, 100,000 people die and India finally decides to give the people autonomy. Most Pakistanis would feel they have won, and would rejoice. But what if half of Kashmir has to die before India lets it go? What if nearly everyone dies and only 100,000 people remain in Kashmir, and then India decides to give it up. Would that be a victory? Are we too blind to see that we can turn Kashmir into another Afghanistan? Pakistan has to decide at what cost to the Kashmir s are we willing to liberate it.

The next important symbol of our identity is our nuclear bomb. In 1998 BJP united the Indian nation with the ultimate sign of Indian identity, the Hindu-Bomb (H-Bomb). The day after the blasts, Indian PM proclaimed that they had taught Pakistan a lesson, and that Pakistan should not dare challenge a nuclear power. They proclaimed India was as powerful as the USA! Of course Pakistan followed blindly into the suctions with its Islam-Bomb (I-Bomb). So proud we are for having turned a nuclear nation, masses filled the street with support, waving flags and banners. Let me not understate the strategic importance of the nuclear deterrence for Pakistan. It is a path we were was locked in, after India tested the very first bomb in the 1970s. For us not to have nuclear capability would be suicidal. It would have been equivalent to USA dropping its nuclear program in the middle of the cold war, while Russia piled up weapons. Yet, it is a sad path to take for both nations. All it takes is one stupid mistake, and we will have nuclear holocaust.

This chain of events starting from the end of the Afghan war has lead to high emotions, rise in drug and arms trafficking, religious fanaticism, nationalistic passions, nuclear escalation, and brought us close to another war.

What difference will Clinton’s visit make? What is he really here for? How will the dynamics of the Internet economic impact growing IT infrastructure of the subcontinent? What will happen with the religious fanaticism in the subcontinent? What is at stake in Kashmir, apart from our pride? What will happen with the impending fresh water crises of the subcontinent? Finally, where do we go from here?

What Clinton is seeking is Non Proliferation Agreements, commitment to signing the CTBT, strengthening efforts to eradicate drug trafficking, opening up of Indian/Pakistani economy, trade agreements, IT talent and resources, Pakistani terrorist concerns, return to democracy in Pakistan, and stability of the region to boost investor confidence.

CTBT and Non-Proliferation:

Clinton’s visit is unlikely to have a drastic immediate influence on the dynamics of the region. Both the countries are suspicious of America. But India has the first mover advantage in most situations, while Pakistani response is more of a reaction and rather predictable. India exploded the bombs, so did we. If India signs the CTBT, so will we. So is the USA looking to talk directly we India, and we will probably follow suit without a problem. So being the follower, we frequently loose a leverage. However it is doubtful that either country will sign the CTBT at the current stage of the game.

Non proliferation of nuclear technology and terrorist uprising is a key issue for Clinton. India now has a conventional arms export industry in a nascent state. Nuclear proliferation is more of an issue with Pakistan, with its I-Bomb and rising Islamic sentiments.

Drug Trafficking:

Clinton would be eager to work with Pakistan on beefing up support for the narcotics eradication and alternative program. From Pakistan’s point of view, we have a critical social problem of drugs, law and disorder in our society. This coupled with rising passion and extreme view can send us down the path of anarchy. There is a commitment at the highest level of the government to disarm the populace. The first steps were to suspend issuing new firearms licenses, and the provincial governments banned public carrying and display of arms. The more difficult part will be to deal with drug trafficking problem. Pakistan needs international help to detoxify its society. An epidemic of this proportion has probably infected every aspect of social infrastructure in Pakistan. This includes police, political leaders, customs, and the armed forces.

The military has been showing a commendable vigor in reforming corrupt and non-functional sectors of the national infrastructure. However, the corruption accountability process exempts current serving members of the military and judiciary. The military can go about reforming other institutions only if it is be able to weed out the bad elements from with-in itself. The few current staff members who are corrupt will cause the most damage to the reputation of the military, and undermine its objectives.

For example In 1997, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) arrested and court-martialed a key DEA Pakistani employee involved in an operation to identify corrupt GOP military officials smuggling heroin to the United States, although the United States strongly protested the charges, the incarceration, and the individual's treatment while in jail. Despite repeated requests at the highest levels to release him expeditiously, he remains in jail, serving a 10-year sentence at hard labor, reduced to 5 years on appeal. It is occurrences like this that compromise the integrity of the entire government and the military.

(http://www.state.gov/ww w/global/narcotics_law/1997_narc_report/fs_pakistan.html)

T hough we have succeeded in reducing opium production within our borders, the explosive growth in production in Afghanistan increases total amount of drugs in our country. The trail of drugs and weapons does not end in Pakistan. From there it goes by land to India, through Iran and Central Asia to Europe. (http://www.state.gov/www/policy_remarks/1999/990226_beers_n arc_briefing.html ) To slow smuggling of drugs across the border, Iran and India needs to work closely with Pakistani authorities. However, this is probably not going to happen anytime soon. In the meanwhile, the people of the countries will suffer the corrosion of this virus.

Terrorism and Threats to American Interests:

From the American point of view, terrorism is mainly concerned with Bin-Laden and his network of operative that threaten American interests. However, there have been pro-Bin-Laden elements in Pakistan, who served with him to liberate Afghanistan. Pakistan has to tune down voices with-in Pakistan that make specific threats against America. These types of threats are damaging to the national interest of the Nation. Pakistan is walking a very fine line, to keep America satisfied with its efforts and not to anger the very strong pro-Afghan lobby in the country.

Both India and Pakistan have had an acute problem with terrorism in the past decade. Apart from the dispute in Kashmir, Pakistan backed the failed uprising in Punjab. India in retaliation supplied training, money, firearms and bombs to terrorist factions like Al-Zulfikar within Pakistan. There are frequent reports in Indian and Pakistani newspapers of enemy agents caught with explosives, guns, drugs, and money. In some cases official diplomatic officials are caught plotting criminal terrorist activities and expelled from the country.

The recent Kargil drama and hijacking incident has given India an angle to brand Pakistan a terrorist state. There is a growing Indian lobby in the USA that is pushing to put Pakistan on the list of nations that sponsor international terrorist activities. However, if USA puts Pakistan on the terrorist list, it would be a sure way of turning the country into one. Religious leaders will probably take the lead in condemning the USA, and rebel everything that is the Western. The path down this road is very dark and scary. What happens when you band Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the same group. Pakistan could barters nuclear technology to Iran, in exchange for Hataf-3 (1,300 Km range), and cruise missile technology. Furthermore, the drug industry will probably rise to new heights. This will affect every single country in the world. (http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/archives/199 9/lauder_speech_042999.html)

Besides America can not afford to put Pakistan on the terrorist list because of its immense market potential. By 2050 Pakistan will become the third most populated country in the world, behind China, while India would take the lead. As with China, American economic benefits out-way the moral problems they have with the way the country operates. Yet Pakistan can be arrogant about this issue. From a strategic point of view, it would be best for Pakistan to cut down ISI adventurism, keep a low profile in Kashmir, and make visible efforts in Afghanistan to bring Bin-Laden to justice, or at least make an effort to clip his wings.

Return to Democracy:

The USA government wants a strict timeline to be set-up by the GOP for return to democracy. America does not want to be seen as condoning a military government. However, this issue is probably going to go un-addressed. In the past decade democratic Pakistan has been in total disarray. The corrupt political parties have looted and plundered the economy, initiated cycles ethnic violence for political gains, and has rendered the civic institution very ineffective. The task ahead for the military government is very difficult. It has to bring the economy back on track, reduce religious fanaticism, earn international acceptance, deal with corruption and fight drugs and arms trafficking. All of these changes will not happen over night. It would be useless to turn back to democracy without a complete overhaul of the national governing infrastructure.

The people of Pakistan are behind the military because it has stopped the decade of madness. It has provided stability, security, checked corruption, and nurtures economic growth. Historically, during periods of military rule Pakistan has consistently seen GDP growth rates of over 6%. However, under the struggling democratic rule of the past decade, average growth has been around 3.5%.

This is not an effort to condone military rule. The point is America needs to be more sensitive to the needs of the people of Pakistan for this moment. While the countries around the world are enjoying economic great boom, our economy has been continuously spiraling down. For now we need a period of stability to get back on track for economic development. However, in the long term, democracy will be essential for the people to self-govern and have the freedom granted to them by the constitution of Pakistan.

Opening up of Indian/Pakistani Economy and Trade Agreements:

Clinton knows the Subcontinent is going to play a huge role in the world economy. There is plenty of money for American investors to put into our growing economies. The reason is that for America to continue its economic boom every American multi-national business will have to make deep paths into Indo-Pak cities and shantytowns. For that America needs Pakistan and India to open up its markets for international investment and competition. This visit will pave the way for trade agreements that USA would be interested in signing with India and Pakistan that would enable export of goods from the USA.

IT Resources and Technology Explosion:

For Clinton, the IT resource of the subcontinent is the key to sustain the Internet economy boom of America. The first target to woo is India to secure IT talent. Nearly every fortune 100 company in the USA has an IT office in India. Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu, is a visionary and has been a key figure in creating India’s top software export park. (http://www.andhrapradesh.com/cm/profile_of__mr.htm) Naidu, proclaimed as the CEO of his state, runs the government as a professional streamlined business based on a modern technology infrastructure. Naidu has wine and dined with Bill Gates, and is sure to be a key person for Clinton to meet.

Internet start-up craze will probably hit India around 2005-2010. The All-American story of the garage engineers, who take an idea to IPO and become millionaires overnight, will creep in the bloodlines of the millions of subcontinent programmers. The craze will turn the zombie programmers into full-fledge money hungry risk-taking entrepreneurs. This will lead to an idea explosion and a gold-rush fever like never seem before in the subcontinent. As the world sees one subcontinent success after the other, American venture capital for off-shore start-ups will become more common.

Pakistan has been left behind in the IT field. There is a growing gap in literacy rates, and quality of higher education in India and Pakistan. With its high standards of technical education, Indian technology institutions have become the center of attention for global IT talent hunt. This has given rise to the booming IT industry in India. On the contrary, the Pakistan IT is currently 20 times smaller, and is falling behind. Unless Pakistan turns around and invests in education, it is going to be crushed by the growing global economic influence of India. However, Indian does not have an infinite resources of IT latent either. Around 2005, as the price of talent in India skyrockets, international interest will increase in the cheap Pakistani IT industry. The Indian IT industry will probably be 50 time bigger than Pakistan’s by that point.

For Pakistan to compete with India in this century we have to rethink our education system, technology infrastructure connecting schools and businesses. Some may argue what good is a high-speed national Internet infrastructure when that money could be spent towards other development tasks. The key is that, the returns on IT infrastructure are much quicker, and a IT growing economy will provide the money for further development of the country. Again, it is a matter of resource management, and vision of Naidu from across the border should serve as an example of how he made Hyderabad, little known city, into a prominent hot-spot on the global IT map.

Future Conflicts:

Information espionage and terrorism (http://www.infowar.com/), race to the space (http://www.isro.org/), and first man to the moon are some of the battles we will fight in the distant future. Like mice in a maze, we know not better than to play our roles in this game.

But can we learn to solve Kashmir issue before the impending freshwater shortage hits us? No amount of technology solves the need for fresh water for an over populated country that needs to feed its people. According to UN, in 50 years the population of the subcontinent will double (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/Papers/gkh1/chap1.htm), while the fresh water resources will be cut in half. So the average person will receive about one-fourth the amount of fresh water available today. This is below the basic survival level, and will be the seed for conflict in the Kashmir region. This is especially true because Pakistan derives 36% (http://www.gci.ch/GreenCrossPrograms/waterres/gcwater/study .html) of its fresh water from the rivers that originate in India. The country that controls the source of water, controls life. Along the way both the nations will be harmed to the teeth with nuclear arsenals, and missile delivery technology to takeout every single city across the border.

So where do we go from here?

India is well on its path of economic development, and is set to become a global power by the mid-century. However, Pakistan is at a critical turning point in time. We have three ways to go from our current state.

First option is to keep down this path of escalation of fanaticism and fighting. Within a year, we will probably be involved in another proxy war on Kashmir. Even if we don’t do that, there are enough elements inside Pakistan who chant “Death to America.” We will get branded as a terrorist nation, as a result cling to extreme faith every closely and turn into a nation of extremists. Forget that rescheduling of IMF loans, America will vote against us at all cross roads. Our economy will nose dive and collapse. Of-course, that will drive us to openly make calls to destroy America, support the cause of Bin-Laden, Iran, Iraq, Sudan and who ever else comes along. Pakistan will become a starving North Korea that exports the Islamic-Bomb to feed our masses.

Even if we don’t get labeled a terrorist nation, all out war will break out sooner or later. Like other wars of the subcontinent, it will probably last less than a week. It is not a matter of who wins or looses. Both sides loose when there is a what, its just a matter of who looses more. Apart from the mass destruction of property and life, it will set back our economy by another 10 years. The foreign investment erodes, economic stalls, we keep spending on defense, meanwhile the population keeps growing.

Second option is to patch up the economy and continue the struggle in Kashmir. Lets say the military government takes out half of the corruption, improves the law-and-order, and kick-starts the economy. Once we get going, we get back to supporting armed struggle of Kashmir, with a heavy military budget that continues to damp the long-term economy growth of the country. If we keep pilling debt the way we have been the next generation of Pakistanis will be born under so much debt that they will not be able to pay it off in their life time. By 2025 India would have become significant economic power, and would be able to apply a lot of global influence. India would be able to afford to have a 10 times military budget, and force Pakistan to keep spending high, and crush our economy. No need to fight a war, our poor economy, starving masses, lack of water, and life long international debt will itself be the biggest loss.

Last option is to totally rethink where we want to go from here. In a fast changing world information technology is going to play an ever-significant role, on which nation is at the top. The military government goes on a vendetta to eliminate drugs, arms, and corruption from our society. We then turn around significantly reduce military spending and invest heavily on education and information technology infrastructure. We prepare ourselves for the world of the 21st century. We do a complete turn around as Japan did after World War II. It restructured itself to become an economic power instead of military power. The motivations are the same: be better than your competitor, except it is a more constructive way to channel your hatred and competitive energy.

What is the solution? Where do we begin to solve more than half a century of pain, mistrust, hatred, and bloodshed?

The solution to a peaceful future has to start with our national identity. Can we forge a new identity for ourselves that is not based on past exploits and religious differences, but our shared cultural heritage? Politicians have to stay away from using the ethnic and religious sentiments they are so used to exploiting. We have to form an identity based on our cultural heritage. The USA is a great country with a national identity in an open society that value diversity, and enjoys freedom. It has stumbled its way in history to keep redefining its character. Parties get elected for based on pending social issues they can solve and not based on inciting anger, hatred and pain. This will probably not happen any time soon, but there can always be hope.

Born on the same planet

Covered by the same skies

Gazing at the same stars

Breathing the same air

We must learn to happily progress together

Or miserably perish together,

For man can live individually,

But can survive only collectively

(Atharva Veda – Indus Valley Civilization 2000 BC)