Survival of the Fittest

PART I – THE FACE OF AGGRESSION

Introduction

On March 19, 2003, as the armed forces of the United States and Britain stepped across the international border of Iraq, the world order that was established after the WWII collapsed. The first casualty of this aggression was the United Nations, which is now reduced to the level of the Red Cross. As the geopolitical order of world has begun to change, the nations all around the globe have already started to re-adjust their position in this chaos and are struggling to occupy a position on the upper rungs of the food chain. In the coming days, the stronger nations will try to re-assert their domination in a bid to re-define their sphere of influence and weaker nations will have to give way or fall victim to the natural selection.

Some might argue that a new world order was bound to emerge after 9/11; whereas others may argue that the US aggression on Afghanistan was the first step towards the establishment of this order, but the fact remains that it was the ending of the writ of international institutions that has pushed the whole world into the realm of un-known.

The steamroller that is currently paving the way for the smooth establishment of the unilateral totalitarian order, dominated by US military power, will not stop at just Iraq, there are a lot more wrinkles that need to be straightened out. And now that this steamroller has gained momentum, an irreversible course of action has set into motion and it won’t stop at nothing short of achieving at least these objectives:

1. An absolute control over world energy resources

2. Tight control over world trade and economics – with right combination of military power and control over energy resources.

3. Crushing any ideological movements that resist this new order.

Pakistan in the Food Chain

Regardless of the outcome of US invasion of Iraq – whether Iraq becomes Americas very own Gaza Strip or the bastion of freedom and prosperity – one thing is certain that throughout the foreseeable future, US has decided to maintain a militaristic posture from now on with the Arab world in particular and Muslim world in general. Since there is no room left for politics, in a world where Doctrine of Preemption is no more an academic debate but a reality, the response to that militaristic posture will definitely be in the same terms. In order to prevent such response, United States is left with no other option but to disarm any or all weapons, which could be used by those who will decide to resist that military posture. It is a vicious circle. As the United States will press the Muslim governments harder and harder to get rid of not only their weapons of mass destruction but also the anti-American elements, the un-representative regimes, in order to protect their fiefdoms will become more brutal and oppressive towards their own people; the popular resistance in turn will bounce back with even more ferocity. It is quite obvious today, that general public in Muslim lands is overtly in opposition to this kind of hegemony, whereas un-representative governments are treading on a razor edge to keep the balance on both sides. It is an impossible act. So the only option that US would have in near future would be to enforce its demands through military pressure. In such situation, the question whether Pakistan, currently or potentially, is a threat to US interests or not is not debatable - under the Doctrine of Preemption there is only one way left open for all parties.

The reasons why US would want to disarm Pakistan have been discussed ad nauseam in international, American and Pakistani media. It is beyond the scope of this article to discuss in detail each and every reason, but keeping the above discussion in mind some of the reasons may be:

1. Pakistan is the only Muslim nuclear power, with a viable delivery system. It is quite possible that anti-American sentiments that are at highest level today might cause a change of leadership through a civilian or even a military revolution. A déjà vu of Iran.

2. Either the new government might prove to be extremely hostile to US, from the American perspective, or during the transition there is a chance that the anti-American elements get hold of nuclear assets.

3. Pakistan is also nearly self-sufficient in the production of conventional weapons.

4. In the emerging new World Order the ports of Karachi and Gowadar will become extremely important, from both economic and militaristic point of view – especially if and when petroleum lines will be laid down from Central Asia to the Arabian sea.

Pakistan in the Cross Wire

The American agenda with respect to Pakistan would carry at least three inviolable objectives:

1. Complete nuclear disarmament, along with abandoning of the delivery systems

2. Complete destruction of not only the infrastructure but also the intellectual capabilities that might cause a revival in foreseeable future.

3. Post-disarmament policing, to ensure that objective #1 & 2 are achieved and enforced.

In order to achieve these objectives political pressure may be imposed initially, on Pakistan, which may turn into a deadly military conflict.

Achievement of the Objectives

In case United States, decides to disarm Pakistan of its nuclear weapons, missile defense system, and the military infrastructure, the modus operandi would be very different than that used on Afghanistan or Iraq. The economic noose tightening will not work this time because of internal support that government of Pakistan will have, in case of such confrontation. The United States won’t have the strategic support of other nations in this endeavor like it did against Afghanistan; and it won’t get a chance to disarm Pakistan using UN inspectors prior to the invasion. The telltale signs of American intentions, however, would surely be the usual ones i.e. building up a case against Pakistan using the propaganda machinery. The process has already begun.

In order to achieve the above mentioned three objectives Americans might employ one of the following schemes or a combination thereof:

Case I: Calculated Elimination of Top Leadership

This is one of the most likely and cost effective scenario. The strategy would be a repeat of Zia-ul-Haq mid-air-explosion episode. The alternative leadership will be prepared before hand. While the status of constitution is in limbo, the procedure to change the leadership is less than defined. So, if and when such "accident" occurs, this alternative leadership will be pushed ahead to assume control. In the ensuing, but deliberately created, internal chaos and confusion, this alternative leadership might "give in" to the external pressure, and "to preserve the integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan" may declare disarmament. Once such declaration is made, what remain are just procedural details with an essential component of policing.

Case II: India attacks Pakistan - Anglo-American Coalition provides support

This is also most likely scenario. In this case we should expect a three-pronged attack. In the North, India’s first priority would be to cut off the Karakoram Highway to China. India might use its air bases, which are already established in the Northern Afghanistan, to cut-off any air route as well. A part of Indian army in Kashmir will try to capture the highway, whereas another part will try to push the Pakistani resistance to South, making Islamabad more vulnerable. The third prong will concentrate its aggression somewhere near the Bahawalpur-Sadiqabad area to cut-off Northern and Southern Pakistani command. The main objective of India here will be to capture territory and one or more sizeable cities in Eastern Punjab and Sindh.

The Anglo-Americans would assume control of the seaway, and assure Pakistan that its supply lines for fuel and food would remain open through sea, if it doesn’t use the nuclear option. A sort of diplomatic support along with some weapons may be promised for not using that option. Meanwhile, they will provide considerable logistic and material support to India, overtly and covertly, so that India could achieve its objective of capturing territory. Once the invaders will be sure that the Pakistan is ready to negotiate, they might impose conditions such as weapon inspectors, abandoning of nuclear option, etc. in return for preservation of territorial integrity and reconstruction. Indian Army along with Anglo-American forces will be used for post-war policing.

If such aggression should occur the Pakistani response, as to how it defends itself - whether it uses nuclear option or not - falls into the category of tactical planning, which is beyond the scope of this article. We will only discuss strategic plans in the Part II of this article to figure out ways to prevent such aggression.

Case III: Anglo-American-Indian Coalition Attacks

This is relatively less likely scenario albeit it is the most dangerous one. Keeping the military tactics of US army in mind, in this case the attack would be swift and severe; the first wave of attack will be on defense installations; in the second wave US will try to neutralize the Pakistan air force, in the third phase the infrastructure that supports the supply lines will be targeted; in the fourth phase the civilian populations will be targeted to demoralize them. Pakistan may be deterred from using its nuclear option, by threat of a nuclear retaliation. And even if Pakistan uses its nuclear option, it will affect mostly Indians and not Anglo-Americans, because Anglo-Americans won’t set foot on Pakistani territory until India will give the go-ahead signal. It is quite possible that a tactical nuclear device may be used over a Pakistani city before the ground invasion begins. It is most likely that the ground invasion will be two pronged - from the Arabian Sea at two points: Gowadar and Karachi and through South Western part of India, so that the Southern Pakistani territory could be cut-off. US will also use its bases in Afghanistan and in Central Asia to launch air attacks. The target will be the Karakoram highway to cut off the supply lines from China. India on the other hand might use its ground forces already in Kashmir to capture the highway. In this case Indian Army will be used against Pakistan for post-war policing.

Case IV: India Imposes a Limited War, Followed by the Economic Embargo and Isolation by the "Coalition".

This scenario may be scary for the ruling elite of Pakistan, but is least likely, because in the emerging new order, there are a lot of nations, especially, France, Germany, and Russia etc. who have already begun to coerce other nations into their economic sphere. France (7% of world GDP) has shown quite an interest in Pakistan, lately, and Germany, which has the third largest economy in the world, has long-standing established economic relations with Pakistan. The EU would also try to re-assert its role. Currently EU seems weak but that is because of the uncertainty that US lead attack has imposed on them. It will emerge stronger.

PART II – THE FACETS OF DEFENSE

It is the nature of this beast i.e. defense planning, that it is done with keeping the worst-case scenarios in mind. No war, in the history of mankind, is ever fought with the best of intentions; rather every war is fought with the worst ones. So when nations formulate their strategic defense plans, they do so with the worst-case scenarios in mind. Pakistan, or any other third world country, cannot afford war in this day and age. So Pakistan can ensure its safety only if it convinces others that an aggression against Pakistan will be unaffordable for them too. But first, we have to convince ourselves that such deterrence is possible to create, then we can figure out the ways to achieve it with in the constraints that we have.

The New Doctrine of Deterrence

The strategic plan that I put forward is based on the doctrine, which can be summarized in one phrase i.e. "India Defends Pakistan". This doctrine can further be explained in the following words.

If there is a credible, overwhelming and persistent threat to Indian integrity, defense, and economic interests, from Pakistan- in case a third party (in this case, US) threatens the security of Pakistan - India will act as a deterrent in a bid to defend both; and thus Pakistan can avert an aggression.

In other words, the defense of Pakistan is based on the concept of deterrence. And this concept is only feasible if either India buys into it voluntarily or it is forced upon it. The idea is that if Pakistan is pushed into a tight corner through aggression, it will drag India into it as well. India should be made to realize that Pakistan would not let India prosper and go about its business if aggression takes place. There is an incredibly important lesson one can learn from Iraq’s failure of strategic planning in this regard. Had it had a credible threatening mechanism in place in the first Gulf War, before its forces entered Kuwait, the Arabs of the surrounding countries would have dealt directly with Iraq rather than inviting US to their soil. Pakistan must avoid committing such mistake.

So, in order to defend Pakistan, it must achieve two objectives:

1. India must buy the idea that the aggression on Pakistan, by anyone, will have formidable and dire consequences for India.

2. Make it impossible to police Pakistan in a post-war scenario.

These objectives cannot be achieved overnight, but we can certainly set the wheel in motion, while the window of opportunity is still open. There are certain steps that Pakistan must take to establish viable multi-layered lines of defense to ensure its survival. A brief description of these lines of defense is as follows:

First Line of Defense – Politics & Debate

Our first line of defense lies in a strong political system. It is time that the politicians and military resolve constitutional issues through negotiations. The politicians and especially military junta must listen and listen good that all the perks and privileges that they enjoy today are because of Pakistan and the generosity of its people. In case Pakistan comes under US attack there will remain no such perks or privileges rather all the officers including and above brigadier level may be tried in the Marshal Law courts of General Tommy Franks "for oppressing their own people". President Musharaf must understand that after what happened to Air Marshal Mir Mus’hif Ali Khan, his own life is in extreme danger, not only from the militants but also from the CIA. No one lives forever, but sharing power with the politicians can reduce this danger. That is the beauty of a democratic system. It protects you if you protect it. Politicians and Generals must take following steps to ensure safety of Pakistan (and theirs as well):

1. Article 58(2) B of the constitution must be aborted, so that the legislature gets some teeth and does not remain just an assembly of rubber stamps.

2. Legal Frame Work must be aborted and all constitutional amendments be made as per the procedure laid down in the Constitution of 1973.

3. In return for item 1 and 2, Musharaf may be elected as President of Pakistan for the life of this assembly.

4. But after three years, Musharaf must take his uniform off and become a civilian President.

5. After Musharaf becomes a civilian President, Army must phase itself out of civilian affairs.

6. These actions will be protected by an agreed 2/3rd parliamentary votes.

7. After completion of the tenure of this assembly, elections should be held according to the Constitution of 1973.

The political lesson that any nation can learn from the tragedy of Iraq is that any powers invested in one person whether through democratic system, as in case of US, or through dictatorship, as in case of Saddam, is a recipe for disaster. Humanity has suffered immensely, equally by both democratic and dictatorial systems. The interference of military in political affairs is absolutely unacceptable and this raises an important question that whether there is mechanism in place in the current political structure of Pakistan for keeping Musharaf from turning into another Saddam or not? The fact of the matter however is that the state apparatus is being used today against people of Pakistan – violating their most basic human rights. Didn’t Benazir use state machinery against people of Pakistan besides being an elected Prime Minister? Similarly, Nawaz Sharif did turn Pakistan into a fascist state besides being an elected official. The solution to this problem is not concentration of all powers into one individual or an institution like Army, the solution is the power sharing. The United States loves people like Saddam and Musharaf. It encourages unrepresentative regimes to turn against their own people. It isolates regimes from their power base and people from leadership. Since, the incident of 9/11, the US is using Musharaf regime to fight its war against those who resist its hegemony in Middle East and in the process Musharaf is using this opportunity to crush its own domestic opposition. Recently, the capture of alleged Al-Qaida operative, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, from the house of a Jamat-e-Islami official is viewed skeptically even by the American media, which contends that JI official was wrongly implicated in this capture. It is time that Musharaf regime stops such fascist shenanigans.

The Pakistan Army must understand by the war experiences of 1948, 65, 71 and 98 that the real strength of any army is the people of the country. Nothing demoralizes a soldier more when he is ordered to point his gun towards the people, especially the people of his own country. The military junta should also keep in mind that the top of the list charge against Saddam Hussain was the suppression of his own people. It is time that army starts establishing good relations with people and accept their sovereignty.

The people of Pakistan must raise their voices against what is happening in the corridors of power in Pakistan now a days. They must realize that the situation today is not very different from that in 1971, when another General was haggling with politicians in a bid to stay in power as long as he lived. And when all that was happening the enemy was knocking at the gates.

It is also necessary, both at government level and at public intellectual level, that an open no holds barred debate must start so that the general public might be made aware of the nature and extent of the looming danger before it is too late.

The Second Line of Defense – Military Preparations

There are five tiers of military defense that Pakistan should start establishing at this time:

Tier 1 Defense: The first tier of defense is the armed forces of Pakistan themselves. I hope that an internal review of lessons learned from the latest Afghan and Iraq wars has already begun. Our first objective in order to create a viable deterrence, as discussed above, was stated as " India must buy the idea that the aggression on Pakistan, by anyone, will have formidable and dire consequences for India." In order to create such a deterrent Pakistan must improve its missile system, and strengthen its air defense. Almost all Indian industrial cities must be with in the range of these missiles. Pakistan Air force must be capable of inflicting irreparable damage to the Indian infrastructure and economics. New bilateral defense agreements and treaties must be signed with China, France, Germany, and Russia. With in next two years Pakistan must also conduct nuclear tests and develop tactical devices.

Tier 2 Defense: Our second objective in order to create a viable deterrence was stated as "Make it impossible to police Pakistan in a post-war scenario." In order to achieve this objective it must be understood that the people of Pakistan are its best defense. Even the best army in the world cannot fight unless it is backed by its own people. There are certain steps that we must take to organize this tier of defense. Some of these steps are:

1. As a first step towards preparation for the defense from a potential invasion all the reservists under National Cadet Corps and Janbaz Force must be recalled and retrained with small and medium size arms and ammo. They must be trained so that they could independently plan and execute sabotage missions and setting up ambushes. Especial emphasis must be given to train them for handling shoulder fired antitank and anti-aircraft weapons. In order to train them and build a sort of people’s militia, the military veterans of Afghan war can be of great help.

2. In the second phase ordinary citizens especially from countryside should be trained with automatic weapons. The training must include how to assemble and gather strength in case an invasion comes. These people must be trained but should not be given weapons at this time, however they must be told how and where to get weapons when time comes. Depots for fuel and weapons should be established all around the countryside from where the weaponization should begin at proper time.

3. An infrastructure for food storage and rationing system should be developed. There is no need to implement such a system at this time, but we must at least take steps to ensure that an efficient system is established quite rapidly if needed.


Tier 3 Defense: In this tier of defense, the Kashmiri freedom fighters must be retrained and re-armed with heavy weapons. The idea is to keep a considerable number of Indian armed forces engaged in the Kashmir valley. They must be trained how to attack supply lines and sabotage the infrastructure, in case India tries to cut off Karakoram Highway or invades from the North,

Tier 4 Defense: At a certain stage in future, Pakistan will have to decide as to when and how to start re-arming the freedom fighters in Afghanistan. It is necessary to do it in order to keep our Western border, relatively less vulnerable. It is time that the plans must be prepared and links should be established for the time when it comes.

Tier 5 Defense: One step that Pakistan should take right away is to establish economic and military ties with all 17 freedom movements that are currently going on in India so that whether India invades Pakistan itself or in collusion with a foreign force, these movements should be able to divert aggression by sabotaging Indian infrastructure and logistics mechanism from inside.

The Third Line of Defense – Economics

The first step that Pakistan must take at this time is to get out of the WTO before 2005 when it will become compulsory for Pakistan to abide by its no-taxation-and-tariff trade regulations. In case an embargo is imposed on Pakistan before an invasion we would not want to kill local entrepreneur and manufacturer by not protecting them at this time. We need them strong and profitable. Besides, the future of WTO and several other international institutions seems to be bleak. Pakistan must take advantage of this opportunity. It is time that Pakistan starts establishing bilateral trade agreements with countries around the globe; especially, countries like Germany (third largest economy in the world), France (contributes 7% of the world GDP), and Russia are desperately seeking to expand their influence around the globe. The EU at this time also appears to be weak, but that is because of the uncertainty that attack on Iraq has caused. In near future, EU will also assert its role more forcefully to protect itself from economic collapse in the post-Iraq war world.

The Fourth Line of Defense – Ideological Movement

Lenin once said "It is impossible to predict the time and progress of revolution. It is governed by its own more or less mysterious laws" and at another place he said, "No leader can start a revolution; all the circumstances that start a revolution already exist; a man then assumes leadership and leads it". Today, Bush may be the most hated person in the Islamic world, probably as much hated as Hitler is hated by Jews, but one day Islamists would thank God, for putting Bush in charge of post 9/11 America. What Bush has done for Islamist’s cause in the past two years, could not have been accomplished by Islamists in probably for another century. Bush’s declaration of war on rest of the world has given unprecedented moral credence and popularity to their cause. If we look at Pakistan, the creation of an ideological workforce was already underway at Islamic schools called madrassas, throughout the country. What that workforce ever needed was an intellectual leadership, which can only come from the urban middle class. And that is exactly what is happening today. If we look at the political history of Pakistan we see that throughout the course of history the urban middle class and rural agrarian class were at two opposite poles in their political aspirations. Only briefly this distance was reduced in Z.A. Bhutto’s tenure in early seventies when urban worker and middle class and rural agrarian class were able to field in the common ground. But there is a huge difference between then and now. At that time such union emerged only because of the charismatic personality of Bhutto, his personal aspirations and not because some ideological volunteers or campaigners had worked for it. But now, first time in the history of Pakistan two opposite poles are trying to coalesce together again because an ideological workforce has been working for it in madrassas for years.

The evidence of this phenomenon is the victory of coalition of Islamic parties in the elections. Their stand on the international and especially domestic issues has exonerated them of the accusation that they always support dictators and imperialists. It is only their conduct in this time of test and tribulation that has made it clear that their agendas and goals transcend personalities. And today when even nations are selling their loyalties to the global imperialism they have stood their ground. Today in Pakistan they are the only voice demanding the restoration of democracy, establishment of social justice, preservation of the Constitution and respect for the democratic institutions; and not only that they are working hard towards achieving it. This stand has put them on a moral high ground as compared to all corrupt politicians, secular left and usurping generals. It has earned them a unique and unprecedented respect, credence to their cause, and love for their ideals. Today, they have become a force to be reckoned with in the political structure of Pakistan.

Today when religious right is the only one standing up for the sovereignty of Pakistan, the secular left is standing numb with shock. Who would have thought that after the collapse of Soviet empire, the pantheon of awe-inspiring Capitalist gods where they had just started prostrating, would prove to be a sand castle. Who could tell that the reverie of their newly found Capitalist paradise and the fancy of the new Promised Land were so hollow and so without soul. And every time they see a statue of Saddam pulled down they imagine the invincible pillars of pantheon crumbling down with it as well. In the coming days when they will revive from this shock and go through the phases of denial and anger, they will have to make a choice -a choice between giving in to the Imperialism and neo-colonialism and pretend that nothing happened or stand up to it.

In the coming days, however, there is a chance that looming threat of global imperialism may bring yet two another opposite poles together i.e. religious right and the secular left. It is not totally out of question. It has happened before and such coalition has proven successful to ward off imperialism before. One example is that of Algiers where they joined hands against French imperialism and were successful. Another example is that of Iran where they were also able to expel American imperialism together.

Such radical social changes are spontaneous, self-propelling and have a momentum of their own. But such changes sometimes bring forth the long awaited leadership along with the sincere and dedicated voluntary workforce. And that is what forms the invincible line of defense.