2004 Democratic Presidential Candidates and Pakistan

The race among the Democratic US Presidential hopefuls is heating up. With the primaries underway, the seven candidates hold debates and issue frequent policy statements on hot-topics such as the war in Iraq, homeland security and the continuing efforts against terrorism. Senator John Kerry has emerged as the front-runner after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary with Howard Dean and Wesley Clark trailing behind. Still, the race is in full swing as the top three candidates revitalize their campaigns for the February 3 contests in seven states. This article analyzes the stance taken by the leading candidates towards Pakistan, tries to gauge their knowledge of the country and what a Democratic White House might hold in store for Pakistan. The research for this article comprises policy briefs and interview transcripts taken from the candidates’ web-sites.

Historically, the perception in Pakistan has been that a Republican administration favors a tilt towards Pakistan and a Democratic one becomes chummy with India. While the Democrat President Carter offered military aid that was labeled “peanuts” by General Zia, Reagan provided state-of-the-art F-16s. Whereas Clinton showed a cold shoulder to General Musharraf, the Republican Bush dined him at Camp David. However, a chronology of historical events establishes that Republican warmth towards Pakistan has always been necessitated by an event impacting US national interests – the US needed Pakistan after the USSR’s occupation of Afghanistan and does so again today for the campaign against Al-Qaeda. At other times, a Republican White House’s policy towards Pakistan has been not much different than a Democratic one. It was President Bush Sr. during whose term the Pressler arms embargo came into effect and was continued during the Clinton administration.

The ex-governor of Vermont Howard Dean is now trailing behind John Kerry in national polls. He is known for his stiff anti-Iraq war stance. Dean’s web-site, when searched for the keyword ‘Pakistan’, returns zero results save for a congratulatory message on August 14th to Pakistani Americans. Searching his interview transcripts at NPR (National Public Radio) and other sites shows him taking a pragmatic posture towards Pakistan – the need to continue partnering with Pakistan and improving intelligence-sharing abilities. Howard Dean has also appointed General Joseph P. Hoar among his National Security team. Hoar served as Commander-in-Chief of US Central Command (CENTCOM) from 1991 to 1994 and has visited Pakistan and met General Abdul Waheed Kakar, the then COAS.

General Wesley Clark with his four-star military background and overseas appointments claims foreign policy to be his forte. However, his policy brief on addressing the threat from Al-Qaeda presents an amateurish solution suggesting that as president he will press Saudi Arabia to work with US forces to create a joint US-Saudi commando force to work the Afghan-Pakistani border where bin Laden is thought to be hiding. Firstly, Clark seems to be implicitly stating that the Pakistan Army, with its 65,000 troops deployed on the porous border, is not capable of or does not want to capture Osama. He states, “We must present President Musharraf of Pakistan with a clear choice. Either work with America and the civilized world to defeat al Qaeda and stop the proliferation of nuclear technology -- or become another outlaw nation". Secondly, he does not seem to be aware that Pakistan’s elite Special Services Group was actually established with the help of US Special Forces and regularly trained at Fort Bragg. Without a doubt, the SSG would be better suited to operate in the Afghan-Pakistan border than “Saudi commandos”. Clark was the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) during the 1999 Kosovo war and as such would not have had contacts with the Pakistan Armed Forces that a C-IN-C CENTCOM does. The frailty of Clark’s proposed strategy was quickly pointed out by Senator John Kerry whose military background is a stint as a Lieutenant during the Vietnam War. Kerry said, “I have great respect for General Clark, but his proposal to rely on Saudi commandos to go into Pakistan to find Osama bin Laden just won’t withstand scrutiny. The Administration can and must turn up the tempo of operations against Al Qaida in Northern Pakistan by intensifying our efforts with General Musharraf, refocusing U.S. intelligence efforts on the border areas, and making better use of the existing collaboration between the U.S and Pakistan.” John Kerry has also shown remarkable insight with regards to the India-Pakistan rivalry by calling for an even-handed approach on the CTBT during his remarks to Congress in 1999. He also demonstrates knowledge of Pakistani internal affairs. For example, in 1992 Kerry co-authored a report for the Congress on the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI).

The web-site of Senator John Edwards tries to establish his foreign policy credentials simply by mentioning that he has met Hamid Karzai and President Musharraf (whom he seems to consider a “Central Asian” leader). Senator Joe Lieberman has also met President Musharraf and he is the only candidate so far who has commented on the recent peace moves between India and Pakistan. However, he feels that the US needs to send a high-level envoy to South Asia to encourage and mediate the talks. This certainly would not be acceptable to India whose successive governments have rejected mediation offers by third parties. Rep. Richard Gephardt, who dropped out of the race after his dismal Iowa performance, had met Pakistani-Americans in Arizona and appeared to be aware of the community’s concerns regarding homeland security laws. Candidates Dennis Kucinich and Al Shaprton are hardly showing up in polls and their policy briefs do not detail a Pakistan or South Asia policy.

At the time of writing this article, the seven-state contest on February 3 is only a few days away. According to a Gallup poll, until the Iowa caucuses the nomination appeared to be becoming a race between Howard Dean and General Clark. However, the polls have surged nationally for Kerry after his Iowa and New Hampshire wins with him leading Dean by 14 points. Whoever gets the Democratic nomination will still face an uphill battle with President Bush maintaining 60% job approval ratings and an unprecedented $100 million collected in election campaign funds. Howard Dean is more leftist than Wesley Clark who has voted as a Republican before. Senator Kerry presents a more balanced view towards Pakistan and seems to be the most knowledgeable about the country. In a campaign where national security issues have loomed large in every debate, all the candidates promise to reform some of the Homeland security laws –especially the Patriot Act– put in pace by Bush and his attorney general John Ashcroft. Dean claims that he will oppose expansion of the Patriot Act and will seek to repeal the portions of the Patriot Act that are unconstitutional. He also promises to protect the civil rights of immigrants detained by the Department of Homeland Security.

A Democrat in the White House may provide some reprieve for Pakistanis and Muslims living in and visiting the US. However, a Kerry or a Dean may not turn a blind eye to nuclear proliferation accusations leveled against Pakistan. The economic and military aid package that was announced by President Bush during his Camp David meeting with President Musharraf may be cut off. If President Bush is defeated, President Musharraf and Pakistan’s Foreign Office must be ready with a strategy to engage the Democrat winner and his administration. Some analysts are now predicting that Kerry will get the Democratic ticket with General Clark as his running mate. This might well be the best possible Democratic setup for Pakistan. General Musharraf may personally feel more at ease dealing with a retired General in the administration. Recall that after his 1999 takeover, the first US contact General Musharraf made was not with the State department or the White House, but with General Anthoy Zinni – the then C-IN-C CENTCOM. Regardless of which party is in power in the US, Pakistan must continue to work on weeding out terrorism from its soil and establishing long-lasting democracy. Only then can US economic investment return to the country and with it, the beginnings of a symbiotic relationship.