Beginning of an End

In law, there is not much room for secret agreements, as such agreements are just understandings between the parties concerned. A decision in favor of Nawaz Sharif is not a surprise. Considering the Judicial activism, it was a foregone conclusion. With the decision of the apex court, Nawaz Sharif has surmounted all the difficulties concerning his return to Pakistan. It is just a coincidence that his life is spared by those he attacked when in power.

Sharif’s expected reentry in Pakistan is creating a new power configuration. The Supreme Court’s decision has come earlier than expected. While the back channel diplomacy is still lingering on in case of Benazir, Nawaz Sharif has proposed to enter through the front gate. Running after Benazir seems to be a thing of the past for him now.

Despite efforts, Sharif’s dialogue with Benazir did not work out well. The mutual distrust was too much to be ignored. She had her reservations, as a comfortable alliance had always been in place between the religious parties and the Muslim League, both of which had also formed electoral alliances before. This alliance had also worked together under the banner of the IJI—a grand alliance especially formed under the auspices of ISI and the MI to confront Bhutto’s PPP. Not just this, they have also felt closer on ideological issues. Even now, there is not as big a criticism of Shujaat-Fazal ul Rehman negotiations, as there has been of Musharraf-Benazir.

Moreover, it was the PML under the leadership of Nawaz Sharif that opened up an endless series of litigations against Benazir and her husband. A politics of torture found its victim in Zardari, who was jailed for years. The politics of intolerance also resulted in Benazir’s self exile which continues till today. Side by side such real measures, Sharif also started media trial against the Bhutto family to tarnish its image in the public. This strategy, however, backfired and resulted in deteriorating the image of all the politicians including his own.

But it was, primarily, the clash of leadership that never let PPP and Nawaz league to trust each other. Both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto are rivals. Benazir feared losing her separate identity if she stood side by side with Nawaz Sharif. She made sure that the PPP maintains its separate identity in the organized agitations in front of the Supreme Court during the Chief Justice’s case. PPP also held its ground and issued clear statements on the Red Mosque issue. The leaders, consequently, were well aware that they were in for a confrontation and that their interests clash; the glory that they were after could only fall in the hands of one.

Despite such differences, the challenges they face are common, the most important of which is that their political parties are in disarray. This factor seriously curtails their powers. They may claim to have massive popular support but they don’t have unified parties under their command. The party structures have been eroded in the last several years. It is a tougher challenge for Nawaz Sharif since the other faction inherited the entire structure of the PML in his absence. He has to build anew. It is a grave challenge and the time is running out.

The same old faces have been seen circulating in different parties. Already efforts are being made to remain relevant in the next set up. It is a test for both of them to try and clean up politics. But the choices are especially harder for Nawaz. Almost his entire party betrayed him, including those who won election of 2002 in his name. On one hand, is the political expediency, and on the other, ethics and morality. Expediency requires a re-absorption of at least some former members of PML-Q in Nawaz league. It is the only way to break the official Muslim League. But such an act puts Sharifs on a moral low ground.

The second crucial challenge is posed by the seventeenth constitutional amendment, which bars them both from becoming Prime Ministers again. Supreme Court cannot come to their rescue on this. For this amendment to go, a two-thirds majority is required in the parliament, which in an uncertain time is hard to manage. Furthermore, the seventeenth constitutional amendment gives the president the power to dissolve the assemblies, not to mention the unwritten power that Musharraf enjoys of buying and threatening MPs and MNAs through the ISI and MI using national exchequer.

The biggest of all challenges is Musharraf himself. He still has initiative, especially when he has the support of the biggest political party in the parliament, which owes its life to him. The PML-Q would go all out to have him reelected as the President. And if the going gets tough, Musharraf can always resort to extraordinary measures. Not much can be ruled out in the heat of politics. Both emergency and martial law remain real possibilities, especially when it is a matter of saving the country. A de facto martial law can be replaced by a de jure one!