Hazardous Endeavors

Israel seems all set to again cross the ‘blue line’ and enter Lebanon after withdrawal in 2000. That ‘event’ did mark optimism for the hot conflicts of Middle East to avert, and new millennium seemed less intent on violence. But that was then.

This specific territory, southern Lebanon is where Hezbollah has support and here central government is said to be powerless against the Militia. Intermittent attacks on borders have been prevalent ever since the withdrawal, with Hezbollah showing dissent against the Israel Army but the assault and kidnapping of the Israeli troops opened up the Pandora Box, or at least that’s what is being quoted now and again by the Israeli side and its allies.

By the look of it, the Plan is to attack by Missile and Bombs, taking Air Space and dispersing the civilian population. The strategy surly resembles one used by US in Iraq before ground attack. If such is the case, then all the ‘conciliatory talks’ that have seemed be taking place are a distraction, and only appeasing deception of modern times. It is quite evident that the parties involved are bias towards Israel, with US being a long standing Ally. The fact that Israel wants Hezbollah to Disarm is the main reason for their adventure and no peaceful consequence can come, till Hezbollah is ready to Disarm its militia, which it won’t and it isn’t being asked to do that either.

Only, relevant appeasing single sided peaceful settlement can be that UN intervenes, even though Israel has given that option a go ahead, there isn’t any neutral country ready to send its army, there isn’t any lobbing from any country for that course either. It’s only been the Secretary General and he alone has limited power.

If UN troops are deployed, Hezbollah will have trouble to form new strategy, it would have to rethink, if they camouflage and disband for sometime or to attack the UN troops as well. They would lose momentum if they disband, but lose man power, resources and support if they do latter, so it could be a quandary. It is a win-win situation for Israel, and so it has delayed action for time being and is continuing missile and air attack.

Mean while Hezbollah has support of the people, it seems to be gaining that everyday, the sprits in country are high, and a chance of combat has increased the support for Hezbollah, and people seem to be finding certain nationalism. The theory of cohesion is in display, by which people gather around when confronted with common threat or danger. In past, the dictators have used that to gain support of masses, however today scenario is different for many Arab Leaders, their personal moral is down and historically the defeat at hands of Israel is piercing. So the Hezbollah finds that support, which antecedent Kings and leaders craved to achieve. There is no surprise, hence, why there are songs being sung in praise of Nusrullah.

The Combat is almost inevitable, Israel’s new Prime Minster would try to show himself as ‘tough’. Such intentions are clear by the retaliation shown by Israel after 12th July incident. He also would want to win the next election, and Israel always has the history of choosing the toughest person for the job. The success of the combat will also help Israel gain an upper hand over Hamas as well and of course Hezbollah always thought to be instrumental in the Israeli withdrawal in 2000. However, the consequences are too many, if the Israel loses, it will consider UN troops as a much better alternative. Of course if Hezbollah concedes the prisoners and goes back from borders that too would be acceptable, but unlikely to happen.

The form of attack by Israel will be quite similar to US

1. As in process, to evacuate Civilians and to break camouflage of Hezbollah, by throwing missiles on town and cities. So far this has been a success for Israel, they would want fewer civilians in combat zones (i.e. cities) because any civilian causality in actual war fare will always be counted in their tally and that would mount international pressure. It also creates less distraction to track down Hezbollah militia. So far, this missile attack also has had many countries to come with different counter proposals instead of full scale attack.

2. If the situation doesn’t change, and no other option remains except for Israel to give up or attack, its likely Israel will attack. The combat will be against a guerrilla army, and mostly in cities. The strong hold will belong to Hezbollah and they can achieve victory by causing more causality to Israeli army. So far the ratio is 1/20, but if they increase that and which is quite possible as is visible in wars earlier than this, they may be able to change the course of action even the war. Stalin Grad comes to mind, where Russians were able hold down mighty Nazis for days till they gave up, one of the first and pivotal victories of allies in the Second World War.

3. Of course, if the Israelis gather up all the cities they plan to hit and take over them, then we see that they shall remain there. Because It would want to finally eradicate any dangers from this side of the border, many strategically places might also come under Israel’s Map indefinitely. A victory on this side will surely allow Israel to have upper hand in the region, for once and all.

Wars are never acceptable and this is a similar case, the two sides are by no means similar in anyway, the power and Might of Israelis is much greater than that of Hezbollah. However, if victorious this victory of Israel will have it more likely to become regional leader, but the cost of loss will also be great. Arabs might feel themselves redeemed and powerful again, the invincibility of Israel will be lost.