Dhananjay < Phukan March 5, 2002

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href="/tag/Pakistan">Pakistan from becoming a moderate Islamic nation, were responsible for the attack in the Indian Parliament. Due to the events post September 11 and the fall of the Taliban these forces may be on their way out but will not go quietly into the night.

Their strategy is simple. If Musharraf does nothing he will be toppled by conflict with India and American pressure. If he cracks down and is seen as weak on India, he will be toppled by loss of the Army. So who are the beneficiaries of this cabal to create conflict in the subcontinent. This question needs some analysis. Let us first examine how valid are the fears of a full blown nuclear war or a non-nuclear full-blown war or a limited war.

Outcomes and Scenarios

Everyone’s worst nightmare imagined is a full-fledged war between the two neighbors with extensive loss of life and economic damage and a possible nuclear

exchange. However that is unlikely to be the case. A more likely scenario is confrontation escalating into a full blown, bloody war that will probably last barely three weeks. At the end of the period Pakistan running out of breathing room would threaten a nuclear strike on India. Intense International pressure (from the onset of hostilities) would force a UN cease-fire with withdrawal to pre hostility positions.

The world fearing a nuclear war (which could destroy the Earth’s environmental system and its financial system) will then force a settlement on India and Pakistan. Kashmir (both the Indian and Pakistani portions) possibly gains independence as a UN protectorate. Jammu, Ladakh, Baltistan and the Northern Areas may or may not be part of this international protectorate. This outcome would a defeat for both India and Pakistan and thus a full war is highly unlikely. The possible winners thus of a war between India and Pakistan are the Kashmiri nationalists, as they would gain independence from both India and Pakistan. Yet their desire to trigger a war between India and Pakistan to get their independence will be highly tempered by their realization that their homeland would be the battleground for the subcontinent’s perpetually squabbling siblings. After the fighting is over between India and Pakistan, Kashmir may end up worse off than Afghanistan.

Eliminating Al Qaeda and Bin Laden are crucial to America’s security and survival. Hence the US will not let the subcontinent’s warring siblings throw a spanner in its works. The Americans will quickly stamp any sizeable confrontation. Yet the distraction may enable Bin Laden or Al Qaeda fighters to escape. These fighters would get a short but crucial break to escape from Pakistan in the event of Indo-Pak conflict

Any war, even a limited war would consume and destroy the Musharraf regime and destabilize Pakistan as a state. Pakistan already is facing serious economic,

social and political challenges to its nationhood. The Jihadi elements and Islamist elements of the Pakistan military would benefit greatly- currently

they face threats under Musharraf. A war is perfect to radicalize the Pakistani population and the Islamic world even with terrible loss of life while simultaneously removing the threat of the Musharraf regime. Hence the Jihadis and Islamists in the Army and ISI would be beneficiaries from an Indo-Pak conflict.

It is unlikely that the Musharraf regime would trigger a war with India over Kashmir and plant the seeds of its own destruction. Pakistan’s last best chance for a military solution in Kashmir was in 1965. Since then the proxy war in Kashmir was used to pressure India into negotiation. Events of September 11

have changed ground realities leaving Pakistan scrambling. Outsourced an I/T department is a challenge for a well-managed Fortune 500 firm. Pakistan by outsourcing its Kashmir strategy and proxy war to the Jehadi groups has created a monster within itself that it must now slay fast.

General Musharraf Not in Complete Control

It is unclear at this time whether Musharraf is in complete control of the Pakistan State, Government, and Army and especially of its entities like the ISI. During the recent Afghan campaign, Northern Alliance commanders reported Pakistani regulars fighting and later being evacuated from Kunduz, Afghanistan despite General Musharraf’s orders to withdraw support for the Taliban months before. It appears that rogue elements of the ISI and their Jihadi clients are again attempting to conduct their own strategy and policy. It would not be past them to coordinate or enable an attack on the Indian Parliament as a prelude to removing Musharraf.

They can gain in both cases. Musharraf is gone if he does not act leading to a war with India. If on the other hand he Musharraf compromises too much with India or is seen as America and President Bush’s patsy willing to give up the Kashmir cause, he would lose support from within the army and his regime would collapse like a house of cards.

Indian Compulsions and Limitation

On the Indian side a war would take away a few years of economic growth. Remember the “Onion” fiasco in 1998- the BJP lost several state elections when they could not keep the prices of onions in control. In India “It’s the Economy Stupid”. Pakistan’s Kargill fiasco helped the BJP come back to power, yet jingoism will not help it retain its incumbency. A war’s economic aftermath’s economic slump and inflation would make the “onion” look like a small wave in comparison. The BJP government and its NDA coalition would lose the next series of elections and India would be ruled by very weak coalitions. The economic reforms pace would slow down. It is unclear who in India (other than the Kashmiris) would benefit from starting a war. Goodwill and International

support gained by India with great in the last few years would evaporate faster than camphor in a hot day. India can kiss good bye the billions of dollars of foreign investment it seeks, the Permanent UN Security Council Seat and any US alliance benefits.

The Indian military while larger and somewhat better equipped than Pakistan’s does not have the techno edge that the Israelis have over the Arab nations let alone the US versus the Taliban comparison? Retired Indian General and strategists have argued against a full blown war against Pakistan not just due the nuclearization but for the absence of strategic rationale behind a war. A limited war may punish Pakistan and call its proxy war backed by nuclear bluff, but would be highly counter productive at this point. General Musharraf’s appears to be not only Pakistan’s best bet but also for India and the United States. Any successor to General Musharraf at this juncture is likely to be even worse for India. Yet it is a perfect time for India to pressure him and use the America rhetoric and actions in Afghanistan to make the Americans put strong pressure on Pakistan to rein in the Jihadis.

Despite Pakistani fears to the contrary- India would not like to conquer and absorb Pakistan back, even if that were possible. When 3 Million disgruntled Kashmiris have been a headache, a 150 Million angry Pakistani Muslims would change the political landscape of the Indian democracy. Some Ill willed Indians might want to see Pakistan weaken and impoverish itself and allow India to dominate the sub-continent. Pakistan’s wealthy and elite has fulfilled this ill wish by shamelessly plundering, looting their country and then settling abroad in expensive mansions. India’s Sonnet Et Lumiere of its military might is just that- a sound and light show to pressure Pakistan and pressure America to further pressure Pakistan. It served three purposes. The first to assuage the outrage felt by Indians of all hues that the Parliament was attacked.

The second was to pressure Pakistan to crack down on its Jihadi elements. The Third is to send a signal to Pakistan that the bleed India by a thousand cuts strategy in Kashmir, has not tired out India nor its military might. This is critical for India as the end game in Kashmir may be about to change and

relatives strengths of Indian vis a vis Pakistani positions would decide the denouement of the settlement of Kashmir. I am expecting the intense American pressure on the Indian and Pakistani leaderships to start if not accelerate, back room Track II diplomacy.

Conclusion

The fundamental truth is that the Jihadi groups are a threat to both India and Pakistan and especially to Pakistan and the Musharraf regime. The Jihadis will never forgive him for having sided with the US after September 11. If General Musharraf does not neutralize them he does so at his own peril.

General Haider’s brother’s assassination shows what General Musharraf and Pakistan is up against. This killing was to intimidate the Musharraf regime,

its officials, army officers, soldiers, police officers and Nazims and also an ominous sign of what these groups are capable of doing unless neutralized.

Colin Powell is correct that the terrorists seek to destroy Indo- Pak ties and the Musharraf government. The more Musharraf cracks down on the Jihadis’ and Islamists the more likely they are to stage spectacular terrorist attacks in India or Pakistan and hence they must be crushed rapidly with an iron hand. India must be patient with Pakistan and give enough time to follow through. India must also not weaken General Musharraf, as he appears keen to make a

break from the past. It is imperative at this time that India and Pakistan maintain communication even if through Track II or back door diplomacy .As JFK said

“ Let us not be afraid to negotiate but let us never negotiate out of fear”

Through out the Cuban missile crisis the Kennedy Administration kept diplomatic contact with its Russian counterparts and saved the world from World War III.

The subcontinent ‘s leaders have consistently let down their people.

The changes since 1947 are staggering, Germany has reunited and again become a world power. Germany and France have made their peace after centuries of warfare and their strong friendship cum partnership become the two feet of the European

Union. Even the Koreas are talking and the thaw has become permanent. Russia under Putin and the US under Bush in ten years have moved past the Cold War

mindset to ally against enemies. China has cast off its ideological chains and is an economic giant. Yet India and Pakistan, who were not too long ago the same

people and retain cultural, emotional ties. Millions of divided families straddle the border, yet India and Pakistan still cling to the past, stubbornly refusing to learn anything and yet forget nothing. The price of this hostility is paid by everyone- - from the poor who die from bad healthcare or starve, to the middle class and upper class like the readers of Chowk.com, many of whom migrated to the West as India and Pakistan could not provide enough opportunities.

Anywhere else in the world, sensible leaders and practical diplomats would have found a way out. An Andorra like solution for the Indian and Pakistani parts of the Kashmir vale followed by a free trade zone for the entire subcontinent that would lift millions of people out of poverty and regain its economic place in the world. The world has changed and moved on and so must our hearts and minds in South Asia. I hope and pray that India and Pakistan display the same sagacity and wisdom as other parts of the world. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity- India has a statesmanlike if aged Vajpayee as its leader and Pakistan has General Musharraf who has shown the wisdom and refreshingly different sincerity from his predecessors. This is a crucial time and the

stakes are very high for the billion plus people in the subcontinent.