Suicide attacks: Is there an end in sight?

From the tales of the Assassin sect during the Crusades, the Japanese Kamikaze (Divine Wind) bombers during the second war to the Cyanide war in Sri Lanka and the Hizbullah militia in Lebanon; the use of suicide attacks as a tactical weapon has gone a long way and became a reality in the guerrilla strategy of many an organizations. For the most part it remained an eastern phenomenon and still continue to be so.

The bombing of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and later the incidents of 9/11 have added to the dangers, scope and damage that effective terror strategies could cause.

In modern history the suicide attackers were the Japanese Kamikaze bombers who used their planes to attack the US warships. In the Okinawa battle, Americans lost some 300 warships and over 5000 lives. Perhaps this was the main factor that moulded public opinion in favour of atomic bombs against Japan in order to achieve prompt victory, keeping in view the loss of lives associated with lengthy conventional war.

During the 1970s, the Tamil Tiger rebels in Sri Lanka brought this technique for the first time to the South Asia and also started using women in these attacks. A female member of LTTE killed former Indian premier Rajiv Gandhi while the rebels also killed Sri Lankan president Ranasinghe Premadasa in a suicide attack.

The 1983 suicide bombing in Beirut killed more than 300 American and French troops and culminated in their withdrawal from the Lebanon.

The 9/11 incident and the following years witnessed a surge in the number of the suicide attacks and “out of more than 700 suicide attacks that have been recorded in the course of modern history, over 70 percent have taken place since 9/11.” [Hekmat Karzai Himal Magazine July 2007]
The use of the suicide attacks being cost effective and sure way to inflict heavy losses upon enemies with least damage has become a crucial weapon in the hands of terrorist groups.

The attacks have become strictly a Jihadi phenomenon over the years. Traditionally the suicide attacks were carried out against the foreign enemy but the paradigm shift came when the army, police and even civilian population were targeted in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

During three decades of the Afghan war, the first ever suicide attack was carried out against the Northern Alliance leader, Ahmed Shah Masud, by the Al-Qaeda operatives just days before the 9/11 incidents. In the following years of the US occupation, the ratio of suicide attacks was significantly low but it gained momentum in 2005 when the bombers hit 55 times and in 2006 bombers attacked struck 118 times. Similarly, nearly 58 have been carried out by the June this year.

The rise of suicide attacks rests on two issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan i.e. the concept of Badal (revenge) among Pukhtoons and secondly the inability to fight the American and Pakistani forces by local tribes, the latter reason is also true for Iraqi resistance.

The rise of the suicide attacks among the local resistance groups is in itself a new phenomenon, because compared to the Al-Qaeda these groups have shortage of resources and training, and most importantly, carrying out a suicide attack is something like a Herculean task for an obscure organization. It is also important to know how they get their recruits trained in this art. It seems that the break-up of the Al-Qaeda structure forced their men to infiltrate other smaller organisations and carry out their activities under the umbrella of these organizations.

However, in the case of Iraq and Afghanistan there are chances that the attacks will continue with less intensity if the present pace is difficult to maintain, given the US and other forces presence in two countries. But in case of Pakistan where the attacks recorded a surge in the recent days, it seems the collision path that the Jihadis have taken against the government is difficult to maintain. Moreover, if they maintain the intensity at the same level, then it is highly probable that the public will rally behind the government and it is most abhorring thought for the Jihadis and the same thought had kept them at bay to strike in the midst of the public.

The case of Pakistan is interesting as before the 9/11, suicide attacks were unknown in the country but when the country rallied in support of Bush’s “War on Terror” the radical elements started to launch attacks in Pakistan, the first being on a bus of the Pakistan Navy in Karachi where nearly 11 French engineers were killed and there was no looking back.

The current year is remarkable as the rate of Taliban activity and suicide attacks surged in the country. The first wave started in the tribal areas where threatening letters to the barbers and CD shops were followed by suicide attacks and ambushes on security forces, and this situation spread to the areas under the active control of government.

During the first seven months of 2007, nearly 22 suicide attacks were carried out in the country and the deadliest spate of attacks started after the military operation against the Jamia Hafsa students in Islamabad in the first week of July. In these attacks more than 200 died and scores of others injured. During July, nearly 13 attacks were carried out, and most of them aimed at the security forces.

The militants have also received many setbacks over the past few months, including the expulsion of the Uzbeks militants from the North Waziristan by the locals, but the deep-rooted tribal tradition of Nanawati (Refuge) and Malmastia (Hospitality) has helped the terrorists find shelter and protection among the conservative tribal public. The US has also hinted at carrying out attacks against the terrorist hideouts in the tribal areas that has spread restlessness in Pakistan.

The government deals signed with the militants have also collapsed on various occasions and the recent one was scrapped by militants after the Jamia Hafsa operation. Despite all efforts of the government agencies in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the suicide attacks will remain a major weapon of the Jihadi groups in near future unless some sort of political settlement is reached and that seems impossible keeping in view the US displeasure over the deals signed with the militants in the tribal areas of Pakistan. In this way the suicide attackers will continue to hit the headlines in both the countries while the governments will remain bogged down in the plethora of the repercussions in the face of growing attacks in the days to come.