Time for Musharraf to Quit

In his Foreign Policy address in Washington (DC) on July 15, the Democrat Presidential candidate Barrack Obama specially dilated on US-Pakistan relations with special emphasis on the fight against terrorism. About President Musharraf he said, “Make no mistake: we can't succeed in Afghanistan or secure our homeland unless we change our Pakistan policy. We must expect more of the Pakistani government, but we must offer more than a blank check to a General who has lost the confidence of his people. It's time to strengthen stability by standing up for the aspirations of the Pakistani people”.

This statement unambiguously, is indicative of the change that would come about when the new president takes charge of US. Obama proposed extensive funding in non military sectors besides the military allocation so that Pakistan could advance as a viable and economically strong nation. His emphasis was on strengthening the social sector so as to stabilize democracy in Pakistan.

Earlier the New York Time in its July 11 editorial on Pak -US relations wrote ’Washington has made a lot of policy mistakes in Pakistan — most notably supporting Pervez Musharraf for far too long. It has forfeited most of its credibility with the Pakistani people and reinforced their belief that the fight against extremism is “Washington’s war” and not also their own’

These comments serve as the writing on the wall and shadows of coming shape of things. The next prospective president of America is clearly stating that president Musharraf whom he calls as general was no more an effective person as he has lost the confidence of his own people. It is a loud and clear message that even if president Musharraf some how hangs on to the presidency till January 2009, he cannot stay any longer with Obama as the next US President. The powerful opinion paper New York Times too is harping on the same theme of no more depending upon President Musharraf because he has lost his trustworthiness with the people of Pakistan besides his utility as an effective combatant in US sponsored war against terrorism. These are definite indicators to which the policy of United States is going to move.

President Musharraf‘s natural impulse for remaining in power is understandable. But he would have been justified in remaining at the helm, had the society been less fractious as it is now or the unremitting spate of suicide killings would not have been there. The suicide bomb galore is in retaliation to his war against the Islamic militants and also per force against the tribal belt. He cannot as such rule peacefully for a longer period of time. It would, therefore, be in his best self interest to resign and let the political process take its own course. It can be surmised that with his departure from the political scene of Pakistan at least there should be some kind of respite in the bomb blasts and target killing.

The saga of famine, scarcity and unremitting spike in prices of commodities, the agonizing power outrages, the paucity of water, the plummeting stock exchanges and a pervading despondency have struck the length and breadth of Pakistan. All these phenomena in public judgment are the spillover of his and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz’s governance. Understandably, if all was well during the past 9 years what is this all about: curse of god on a people for not obeying a divine and saintly president? The fact is that he has failed. Nobody is indispensable, all the more a military dictator singing to the tune of foreign masters ever since he assumed power. His misrule however doesn’t absolve politicians of their criminal and delinquent conduct and record.

Very few instances can be quoted in history when glory descended on a person like a windfall. Ruthless warriors killed millions and ransacked whatever came in their way to capture the foreign lands or to rule over their own people. Pity, mercy, compassion or blood kinship do not matter in the way of grabbing power and authority. History is replete where individuals, unabashedly, killed their family members and close relatives for ascendancy and power.

In contrast, President Musharraf was singularly lucky to become Pakistan’s powerful head of state without firing a bullet. When he boarded the plane in Sri Lanka on the fateful day of October 12, 1999, he did not have the faintest hunch that after a few hours he would become an absolute potentate in Pakistan. The Amazing swing in fortunes was not of Musharraf’s making because till that moment he was loyal to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It was the result of the clumsy initiative of the then Prime Minister to sack him.

Like all humans, Musharraf in no angel. If power came to him in that unpredictable fashion, he adopted a natural course to retain it. The people of Pakistan welcomed his advent as the head of the state of Pakistan. There was then a pervasive bitter public opinion about the Muslim League government headed by Nawaz Sharif. Musharraf was hailed as a redeemer against the oppressive demeanor of the outgoing regime. He could have become a civilian ruler if the developments in neighboring Afghanistan would not have compelled him to become a fighting partner of the West and the USA against the fundamentalists’ militancy. He had no choice. In that closed alley situation that was the only pragmatic policy to save Pakistan from the vengeful wrath of a super power.

In politics wheeling dealing is a part of the game. It was the political folly of the relgious outfit to allow him to retain the uniform besides the presidency till December 2004. The changed circumstances one of which was a commitment to USA to become an ally against the Taliban and AlQaida bands, necessitated that he should remain in uniform. Thus he antagonized a powerful of the religio-political clan section. It appears Musharraf, more or less, remained at the mercy of the events as these unfolded themselves. His love or lust for power indeed grew stronger and stronger in due course of time which has become a norm in the third world countries.

The events of last year notably the sacking of the Supreme Court’s chief justice betokened the beginning of the fall of Musharraf. The public opinion started taking a sharp and vigorous turn against him thanks to the legal community’s countrywide movement for the release of sacked chief justice and other judges. It turned out to be a clarion call for change of government and for the creation of a civil society. The February elections this year were in fact the corollary of the unremitting crusade waged by the lawyers, human right activists and media for President Musharraf to doff his military uniform and hold fair elections. In the meantime Musharraf committed more blunders such as muzzling media and proclamation of emergency in Nov last year.

One of the credits that president Musharraf can claim in his favor is to hold acceptably transparent and smooth elections. Ironically the first such types of free and fair elections were held by another military ruler Yahya Khan during whose tenure Pakistan was dismembered in 1971. Musharraf will not sit on another dismemberment of the remaining Pakistan but would certainly be adjudged as the one who in the process of saving Pakistan left it more fragmented, rife with culture of suicide bombing and violence. He will also be held accountable for pushing Pakistan further into the lap of United States and thus overriding the interests and integrity of this nation for bounty money. Grinding poverty and social chaos would be added to his litany of misrule.

Now it transpires that by entering into an alliance with USA for combating terrorism Pakistan has hurt itself more than serving the cause of the patrons. President Musharraf will go down in history as one of those third world leaders who by playing as the second fiddle to West exposed Pakistan to religious militancy which remains well entrenched despite massive military operations. At the end of the day, people of Pakistan were totally disillusioned with President Musharraf as a good ruler whose presence at the political landscape of Pakistan could not be tolerated any further. The unbearable cost and dearth of staple food and power outrages are proving to be the proverbial last straw to aggravate public outcry against him. How long would he be able to hold on to the presidency with an ambivalent government and non compliant parliament cannot be presaged?

America is definitely looking beyond Musharraf. United States, of late, has come to the conclusion that in view Musharraf’s weak position in terms of public support, control of armed forces, disarray of his own political party, the worsening domestic situation, the task of combating terrorism or militancy cannot be effectively carried on by him. That is why strong signals are emanating from Washington for support of the newly democratically elected government and to strengthen it economically besides military aid.

Once again the judicial activism is coming back with full fury and calls of vengeance including the warning of civil disobedience. The lawyers are likely to come very hard on Musharraf once again. They would also not spare the PPP government and might go to any length to castigate it. The political government may find a way out and come to an understanding with lawyers. But Musharraf would look a dispensable heavy baggage even by the PPP government which so far is perceived to be on his side. The people already teetering on the brink of disaster by way of collapse of civic and social services would be fueled by the lawyers’ fresh call of starting the movement for restoration of the sacked members of judiciary.

To forestall such a horrific situation, the PPP presumably would act fast this time and would not thwart attempts aimed at forcing Musharraf to resign or else for his the impeachment. The government might also agree to restore the judges through a simple executive order with a prior tacit consent from the reinstalled judges that they would not touch the NRO, a presidential amnesty for Zardari and his ilk. If that assurance comes today, the PPP government would not hesitate for a jiffy to restore the deposed judiciary. But judiciary’s reinstatement apart, Musharraf’s abdication from power is foregone as America and PPP government seem to have reached a tacit understanding on that issue.