“As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods; they kill us for their sport”. (Shakespeare in King Lear).


Balakot city was completely flattened by the October 8 earthquake. It is located on top of two fault lines and was declared as the “red zone” by the government with respect to future construction. The new Balakot city project has been inaugurated by the President recently; the place, called Bakryal, is located between Manshera and old Balakot. It will accommodate 50,000 people; the appealing part is that the planned city will be an eco-friendly city as no trees will be cut to make way for the houses and facilities which, of course, will be earthquake safe.

The people of Balakot were initially not very receptive to the idea of shifting to the new place. They are, though, prepared to get allocations in the new city but don’t want to let go of their respective lands in the old city as well. It is said that people are that part of state that does not know what it wants. But it is natural for these people to want to stay in their native land; they are also confused as to whether they will actually find the new place livable. Mistrust of authority is ingrained in the psyche of our people and for good reasons too. The perception of the people is that the new place might be artificial as compared to the city they have inhabited for so long and where their fore fathers are buried. The new area might also not be very attractive for tourists- the main income source for the people; no river touches the new city although it is green and picturesque. With the reality slowly sinking in, it is now said the about 93 percent of the people are in favor of moving to the new city.

With the rehabilitation process well underway, it would be worthwhile to talk about our state of preparedness to manage any future disaster situations. The International Conference on Earthquake Risk Management (ICERM) has been hosted by ERRA in Islamabad in April; experts in risk management, readiness, mechanism of decision making for disaster prevention and post disaster strategy, from Japan, Turkey and Iran- all earthquake prone countries- have shared their respective experiences.

In Japan many parts of the country have experienced devastating earthquakes and tidal waves in the past. The Great kanto Earthquake is the worst in Japanese history; it hit the Tokyo region in 1923 in which about 142,000 people may have died. In 1995 the Great Hanshin Earthquake struck the city of Kobe killing 6434 people and destroying the city completely (completely rebuilt with in a decade). The Chuetsu area was rocked with a quake with strength of 6.9 on the Richter scale on October 23, 2004; it killed 39 and injured about 3000 people.

On October 8, 2005 we rudely awoke to our nightmare that killed 73,000 and rendered about 3.5 million homeless. That was the fateful day when we were reminded of the Quetta earthquake that may have killed above 60,000 people back in 1935.


The relative experience of the two countries presents an extraordinary comparison in terms of the number of lives lost. The Japanese loss of about six thousand in 1995, though great in absolute terms, seems small compared to the millions of lives lost in 1923. We lost sixty thousand lives in Baluchistan back in 1923 and then in again more than seventy thousand in 2005. We learned nothing from our own tragedy and loss of 1923 and certainly nothing from the Kobe and Chuetsu Earthquakes in Japan and how they evolved their risk and disaster management.

With economic cost over 300 billion rupees there has been no serious effort to assess and understand the human and social impact. The rehabilitation process is weighed down with issues ranging from amount, manner of payment of compensation to the role of NGOs in a conservative community to the fate of landless affectees. Is the help getting across to the people who need it the most in a society where chicanery and sycophancy has its rewards? The society is, however, experiencing a change where, for example, the women of the area have been afforded opportunities to work with the NGOs for the betterment of their communities.

In our times the dynamics of the urban life dictate regulation of human activity with in the larger context of our ecosystem that is unrelenting in its determinism despite human ingenuity. Earthquake has been termed to be rather benign of all the natural disasters since it does not kill people by itself except by way of landslides; buildings kill people. Margalla Tower was the only building in the capital that wreaked havoc on its unsuspecting inhabitants while the rest of Islamabad stood firm despite being shaken by the quake. This naturally points towards substandard construction and faulty design architecture. No one could be held responsible.

Earthquakes simply transfer the movement that occurs along the surface of the earth to the buildings. It has not been possible, so far, to predict earthquakes even with our current knowledge of geology and the phenomenon itself. There can be no “earthquake proof” buildings since they have to be made of steel and concrete in large part; most dangerous quakes lie between 6 and 8 on the Richter scale and buildings can be made to resist the jolts of that strength. Islamabad, interestingly, was upgraded to the “moderate-high” category from “moderate” a few years back but no one noticed that since we have short memories and the last big one happened in 1935.

Given the horrendous overall cost that an earthquake may entail, a risk management strategy needs to be developed; the contours of which could be:

1. There should be an informed debate that addresses the basic need for having a strategy in the first place in terms of cost/benefit analysis. Would it be better to have it and not need it or need it and not have it when the time comes (God forbid).

2. The Crisis Management Cell (CMC) needs to be staffed with real professionals. CMC can pilot and own the nation wide debate and be the forerunner in initiating, advocating and coordinating the changes that may be needed at the policy and implementation level.


3. A legal frame work is needed to ensure that the new building codes are implemented. It is a sad fact that the building codes Islamabad had since 1986 were not enforced.

4. An Institutional framework may be in put in place to improve our study of the phenomenon through national and international cooperation, sharing of geological knowledge and impact information.

5. There is a need to boost capacity and professionalism of our police, fire and rescue services and civil defense organizations. Fire safety regulations need to be made an integral part of our building codes.

The death of so many children in schools was the most saddening part of the Pakistan Tragedy; evacuation drills may have minimized the loss.

6. Our town and urban planning must take into account latest research in seismology while architects and civil engineers must be trained to design and construct buildings according to a dynamic building code.

The Japanese are using rubber or other resilient, materials in the foundations of multistory buildings to reduce the shaking effect through base isolation which is said to be the best available technique in this regard.

7. Evacuation sites must be planned that can cater to the needs of the evacuees. In Japan parks have been designed as shelters with earth quake resistant underground water tanks, storehouses for food etc.

8. Electricity, gas and telecommunication services need to have their own disaster preparedness plans that incorporate post disaster capabilities in restoration of services. This will help in maintaining social order and prevent confusion.

9. The local governments can play a vital role in educating the local communities in earth quake prone areas. In Japan it is very common to see public signs that guide the people about the places to go in case of an earthquake.

10. Enforcement is where our people have been let down with all the laws, policies and recommendations on the book. What will ensure applicability of new building codes in this rent seeking culture?

11. A workable system of accountability that is swift in taking cognizance of corruption, willful wrongs, complicity and criminal negligence.


Apart from a few workshops and conferences that dished out one thing or establishment of new parking places for people, we have done little to look at the subject in terms of a long term perspective. Social well being justifies the existence of authorities, institutions and statute. There is, for example, little evidence that will show that the new building codes are in fact under enforcement in Islamabad. High rise towers and Apartment projects conceived and constructed by unscrupulous developers are springing up at good speed and the public has not been made aware as regards building controls.

It is said that you can no more win a war than you can win an earthquake. Comparing Pakistan with Japan with to respect the subject would not go far. (Japan has been the single largest donor to Pakistan in social sector). They invested about 300 million USD, after 1995, only in developing parks as evacuation areas; their essential urban infrastructure is geared to respond to an earthquake to mitigate impact with on going research. All that does sound fancy for Pakistan that uses aid to fund its development projects; but how much, for example, of Japanese expertise in construction of high rise buildings has gone into our new building codes?

In December 2004, Pakistan had hosted the international conference on volunteerism and the Millennium Development Goals; date of quake: 8th October, 2005. One might at this stage want to conclude that we are as prepared as we were at 8:40 AM on October 7th, 2005.

Civilized societies that are organized around rules and institutions, are geared into action when nature strikes; our tragedy brought the nation together, if only for a short while, in 1923 we were a colony, struggling to find our voice; in the last 60 years we have made choices that have given us the present future. We have a responsibility to our people and more so to our children in securing their future. What is good governance if not decision making in the public interest and respect for rights of the individual?

Allocating resources to a cause that seems chimerical or even politically incorrect compared to other pressing issues and fanciful obsessions of our governments. But let’s not be shaken out of slumber in 2095 only to mourn the decimation of our children-again.