Last Rites in Kashmir or a New Journey?

H P
Jun 6, 2005
It is time to Dissolve this issue to everybody’s satisfaction. Can it be done?

This year has so far witnessed some very welcome changes in Indio-Pak relations. There is no that some gentle pokes, persistent and optimistic propositions by the US helped both countries in steadily moving towards a peaceful and meaningful discourse. Several theories are out there to rationalize the US support to the process. Whatever the reasons, the process itself is on the fast track and it seems that the hardliners opposing better relations between the two countries are hard put to float their usual skepticism. The interesting part of the whole saga is that the army and its COAS are the strongest supporters of better relations with and their concessions over negotiations though not exactly galvanic revelations still represent a significant departure from the long stated Pakistani position. The army’s biggest spokesperson Gen. Musharaf is not willing to put a timeframe on the process although his civilian spokesperson and a former hawk is predicting a reasonable solution by the year 2008.

Going by the nature of the conflict over and the long-drawn-out positions that both and have taken over in the past, a solution within the next three years seems like an unreasonable expectation. If the army and the hawk raise the expectations, then it is fair to assume that they have finally stumbled on some solution acceptable to all parties to the conflict. Over the years, both countries have dug so many deep pits over the issue that any overly cheerful statement raises the question: What are the reasons of this ?

’s had remained in the Pak Army domain and as the army exerted its control over the civilian structure in , the issue became its raison d’etre. The political commentators, politicians and the diplomats in and outside the subcontinent have rightfully assumed that the army was a major obstacle in resolving the issue and improving Indo-Pak relations.

Borrowing the US Vice President Dick Cheney’s mantra, 9/11 changed everything. During the last four years, many myths, truths and assumptions in the international relations have been tripped up. Once the US broke the international Jihadi support network and forced the Pak Army to adjust its policies towards Islamic fundamentalism, the Pak support for Jihadi in has also diminished. However, the history of the problem goes far back and the Jihadi intrusion was just one aspect of the total debate between and .

It would be pointless to discuss the oft-repeated history of conflict now. However, both and never followed a consistence in . Despite a long fifty years of control, wasted several opportunities to de-fang this issue and failed to build a majority support in thus allowing the proxies to disrupt the status quo at will.

The Indian reluctance to invest-both politically and fiscally- in also meant that it could not neutralize the Kashmiri opposition to its rule. Over the years, had remained a thorn on the Indian side; still mostly managed to keep the issue confined without adversely disturbing economic or social progress in the other parts of the country until 2002, when it multiplied its costs by adding regular armed forces to the borders.

affects deeply. Removing the issue from ’s defense, would make it hard for the army to justify ever-increasing defense budgets that often exceed acceptable levels of GDP share. In the last 50 odd years, the army had used and the defense of persistently to undermine any effort to sustain a democratic or civilian set up in .

The sudden urge of the army to resolve the issue and the change of heart surely appears to have thrown lots of political observations and calculations off the charts.

The Pak- off again on again dialog started a couple of years ago. Despite hefty nudges and strong support from the US, a strong mistrust of each other held up the process. It was hard for Indian diplomats and politicians to negotiate with the Pak army as the army did not have an exactly impeccable record of good negotiation with . On the Pakistani side, trusting the BJP and its warped sense of history was a hard pill to swallow. Like the Pak army, whose meddling in the civilian affairs in depended on anti Indian-ism and the fear of Hindu dominance, the BJP, its allies the RSS, and the whole Sangh Pariwar counted on the anti , and Anti Muslims stand to gain political foothold in . Both the BJP and the army talked about the Confidence Building Measures but the parties to the negotiations were so far apart in trusting each other that the CBMs were long on rhetoric and short on actions.

The new Congress inherited the BJP skepticism and initially it was slow to move the negotiations with forward. The Indian National Congress has a record of good negotiations with . Pakistani diplomats and public officials feel more comfortable working with the Congress than any other political group in . However, confidence is a two way street and the army still had not proven that any Indian could easily be convinced of its sincerity in a meaningful dialog or move forward in negotiations hoping that the army would follow through on agreed resolutions. The Pak army, sensing the reluctance and skepticism on the Indian side, provided conclusive goodwill measures to affirm its seriousness and determination to take some risks in moving the dialog with forward. Gen. Musharaf first suggested working through different sectors of . This was a significant concession as it implied that is willing to work on some piecemeal solution to the problem. This solution though unique had so many pitfalls that could not get its allies in to go with that. Then Gen. Musharaf moved a step further by suggesting his most astonishing proposal of not bringing the referendum demand up in negotiations with . The dropping of the referendum demand, even temporarily, meant that would work on a bilateral solution of the issue. Gen. Musharaf’s initiative set the wheels in motion. On the eve of his visit to during a match, made an important concessionary proposal with a seven-point action plan to ease the situation for Kashmiris and to provide a symbolic share to in a few matters important to the economic well being of Kashmiris. The Indian showed its dedication to the process when it brought out all its big guns to inaugurate the Bus service between the two . The next step for is to remove the pockets of militants that still operate in as quickly as possible and begin to withdraw its army from the populated areas of allowing the people to regain control of normal civic functions.

The US pressure was the initial motivating factor for and to talk, but now enough enthusiasm is building up in the general and especially in the valley that the momentum may help the negotiations but there are still thorny issues out there that have to go through some tough negotiations. Concessions, goodwill gesture, and public enthusiasm would not bring the results until there is a clearly defined goal to resolve any issue.

The question remains as to why the army would be willing to accept any solution that would eventually undermine its own position within Pakistani politics. The reality is that in the last twenty odd years, the army has sufficiently discredited and weakened that they cannot currently capitalize on to challenge the army for political gains. The army learned a lesson when used the issue to mount a campaign against Gen. Ayub Khan and garnered enough public support to destroy all army supported in . Now, are not in a position to repeat that feat. The army itself has penetrated ’s economic and social structure so deeply that can only work with the army to join the power structure.

This still is just one aspect of the story. The US pressure, after the Afghan , has forced the army to realign its internal political support system. For a long time, the army relied on religious- to play a supporting role. These parties assisted the army in all endeavors. Now the changed international situation demands that these obscurantists are consigned to the dustbin of history. The pressure to liberalize and modernize and discourage the fundamentalists and inspired conservatives is forcing the army to look for allies in the mainstream and middle of the road parties that can help move the country towards the center. The US has made it clear that and the army’s economic future is interwoven with an open, liberal, and a progressively democratic society. While the US wants to help the army with equipments and supplies, it also wants to play a role in overall geo-political maneuvers in the area.

The US needs to maintain a control on human and material resource to continue to dominate the world economic system. While can provide the largest pool of human resources, ’s proximity to the material resources ensures predictability in resource management. For the US makers, both and also need to develop a working relationship that precludes any chance of a future deadly and possibly nuclear confrontation between the two countries.

is more or less a centerpiece in the unspoken “restrain ” US . To divert investments to or to some extent , both countries need to ensure secure environments for investors. Indian need of foreign investment is far greater. The current flow of Investment will only pick up momentum, if the infrastructure in is ready to facilitate large-scale manufacturing. There is an immediate need to upgrade decaying railroad, seaports and airports. The need for investments in these areas alone exceeds $150 billion. also has some legitimate foreign goals that are important for its economic growth. The conflict with creates an impression that the Indian capitalists and political leaders lack the vision to move beyond their local conflicts.

History serves as a witness that conflict with works to the benefit of the supporters of dogma in . The internal Indian politics is not immune to this rule either. There is really only one problem between and . Once that concern is laid to a rest, there really is nothing that can hold both countries back from making great strides in economic cooperation. With the current international favoring the region, all initiative would be of great importance. Nevertheless, the million-dollar question defining a solution to the problem remains.

The issue really has no solution that can resolve this problem to everyone’s delight. There are so many emotions, national egos, and political survival issues attached with it that neither the Congress nor the army would ink something that could bring an instant political to one or the both parties.

No matter how people sift through many solutions out there, the probability of a resolution to everyone’s satisfaction is zero. The best course in such a situation is to find a way to dissolve the problem through some mutually agreed steps that would not provide the knives wielding opponents any chance to strike.

Both Indian and Pakistani state machineries excel in dragging their feet, shoving issues under the rug and bringing the decision making process to a crawl in their respective internal systems. They may need to extrapolate those skills and experience to the conflict thus eliminating the need of a “quit-claim” clause in any agreement to anyone’s detriment.

The feel good statements, the enthusiasm on both sides and the talk of good news within three years leads to one and only conclusion that the current leaders in both countries may be well advised to dissolve this issue for the benefit of both countries. It is doable and optimistically, we should see the bits and pieces of this process wedged between growing bilateral and cultural relations. At the end of three years, we may see a , which is open to all with a state that listens to both countries without undermining anyone’s sovereignty.

The US and interests would begin to collide in the near future or right after the current and fundamentalism menace is done with. The world may see a revival of the cold type confrontations and encirclements between the US and . Both and will need to work together to be in a position to maneuver the expected escalation in any Sino-US conflict to this region’s favor and achieve the economic stability and prosperity that both countries deserve.