Stage Set for BB’s Prime-Ministership?

The opposition parties are in disarray over the issue of mounting a campaign against General Pervez Musharraf. Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) wants the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD), to formulate a joint strategy with it to make such a movement effective. But there is a clear divergence of views on this, between the two political entities.

The Chairman of the ARD, Amin Faheem enunciated the schedule of the anti-Musharraf campaign last week. The ARD will kick off its anti-Musharraf campaign with a public gathering on December 6 in Peshawar. This will be followed by rallies in Azad Kashmir on December 13, in Sialkot on December 20, in Sukkur on January 2 and in Sargodha on January 14. On the other hand the MMA has already announced its own protest campaign.

The MMA wants Gen Musharraf to step down as army chief before December 31, as stated in the 17th Amendment, but the ARD says it does not accept Gen Musharraf as army chief or president and wants the 17th Amendment renounced as well. It wants to completely oust Musharraf from politics. The ARD is also suspicious that the MMA may use the ARD to achieve its objectives of getting Musharraf out of uniform but still support him as a civilian president, to safeguard and strengthen their two provincial governments.

But the problem for the MMA is that it has already accepted General Musharraf as president and signed a deal with him on the LFO, thereby accepting the 17th amendment. Technically, it is not possible for the MMA to now reverse its stance on the LFO and declare it to be infructous and unconstitutional. The ARD does not have this problem since it was not part of the deal, which the MMA struck on its own without at the time taking the ARD into confidence. Presently, the ARD is on the periphery of the system, unlike the MMA, and has nothing to lose. On the other hand, in theory, were it to actually get rid of General Musharraf, it would stand to gain immensely.
The MMA has, therefore, fallen into a trap of its own making. In the 2002 elections, it secured 11 percent of the total vote; clean sweeping the NWFP and bagging a significant number of seats in Baluchistan. It formed a government in the NWFP single-handedly and got into a coalition with the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Q in Baluchistan. Both needed each other to keep the mainstream and nationalist parties out.

This was an optimum arrangement for the MMA and allowed it to maximise its political advantage. Its twin political objectives were to retain its governments in the NWFP and Baluchistan while simultaneously appearing as the genuine opposition to the central government. This set the pace for negotiations on the LFO. The reason the MMA also kept sleeping with the ARD was, that it did not want to lose the popular perception of a genuine political opposition while never really severing links with the government’s negotiating team. It finally penned a deal with the generals, which not only secured its provincial governments but also allowed it to be formally declared as the opposition in the National Assembly. Maulana Fazlur Rehman, was anointed as the leader of the opposition in the NA, even though Makkhdoom Amin Fahim of the PPP showed more strength in the House.

But, Musharraf’s reneging on the promise to doff off his uniform by December 31st has made MMA look like a bunch of political yahoos, who have been trumped by the generals.

The above political scenario is now going to be changed in the next few weeks. This has been heralded by the imminent release of Asif Ali Zardari. A full-bench of the Supreme Court of Pakistan has granted bail to him, after eight years of incarceration. Political pundits are of the opinion that Zardari’s release is part of a deal between the government and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). A political deal with PPP was perennially in the offing. But what was the catalyst that accelerated this deal, at this point in time? Two major reasons could be causative: One the Musharraf regime wants to cut the mullah-brigade to size, since they have outlived their utility after helping Musharraf usher in the 17th Amendment; secondly there has been a tremendous pressure on Musharraf, recently, from the EU and Commonwealth to end the marginalization of the mainstream political parties.

A strong attributive factor could be the exit of Colin Power from the second Bush administration and the advent of the super-hawk, neoconservative Condoleezza Rice as the Secretary of State. Musharraf needs to demonstrate, that the political dispensation he is heading is political plural and more representative.

The contours of the deal with Benazir’s PPP are not clear. But it is widely assumed that she would be offered the Prime Minister’s slot plus a substantial number of cabinet posts, after general elections to be held around March 2005. The PPP will be assisted by the power that be to win a majority. The new political construct is likely to be headed by Musharraf as a “civilian” president.

The release of Zardari is the initial gambit in the emerging political paradigm.
Does it sound like déjà vu’, a’ la 1988?