Starting from the End

“What we call the beginning is often the end. And to make an end is to make a beginning. The end is where we start from.” T.S.Eliot

The ‘beginning of the end’ is a popular cliché. However, it may well apply to the recent political turmoil in Pakistan. Wishful thinking aside, what is the reality behind the rhetoric?

It is true that Mr.Musharraf has outlived his welcome. People who initially welcomed his takeover after the corruption ridden years of Ms. Bhutto and Mr.Sharif have now realized that he has no more to offer than they did. While his hand picked Prime Minister, Mr.Aziz, boasted about ‘growth’ the average person on the street has seen nothing to justify the enthusiasm. Inflation remains high as does crime, corruption and environmental degradation. Property values have sky rocketed making owning a home a far away dream for most. Wages have stagnated relative to costs of living and infrastructure continues to crumble.

Wapda and the ministry of power have implemented an emergency load shedding plan to plug the gap between electricity supply and demand leading to more misery for millions.

On my most recent visit to Pakistan a couple of months ago, I was reminded of my adolescence when the lights used to go out for hours at a time. My American born and raised children complained plaintively that nothing was happening when they turned on the light switch, a novel experience for them. While cricket surely does not rank high on the national list of priorities, the World Cup debacle followed by the recent controversy where the Australian team is refusing to tour Pakistan because of unspecified ‘security issues’ only reinforces the general sense of a country out of control and adrift. Religious extremism continues to mushroom, despite the government’s pledges to stamp it out and Pakistan remains on most Western countries watch list as a ‘country of concern’ for fomenting terrorism.

It is these factors that form the backdrop of the current street protests by lawyers, doctors, teachers and other educated, middle class professionals who were previously a loyal constituency of the former General. Mr. Musharraf and his minions argue, laughably, that this issue should not be ‘politicized’ (as if the summary firing of a Supreme Court Chief Justice by a serving General and self-appointed President was not a political statement in and of itself). In 1986, the return of the late Ms.Bhutto to Pakistan following an American brokered deal was a tumultuous affair with millions (including the author) pouring out into the streets of Lahore to welcome her. That seminal event was followed in rapid succession by elections, the death of General Zia-ul-Haq and the restoration of democracy (albeit in a hobbled manner and for a limited amount of time). This time around, unfortunately for her, her return was far less auspicious. How will things proceed this time?

Despite protestations to the contrary, the government is visibly nervous. An all out popular uprising against the present government would be a disaster for Pakistan’s current ruling circles. Police and military repression is still possible but if applied too vigorously, would risk splintering the army, the ultimate nightmare scenario. For the national security state, a more preferable approach is continuing to spread terror via their proxies, the ubiquitous ‘jihadis’, usually illiterate or semi-literate men willing, for various reasons to immolate themselves and others in a fiery bomb blast. The unpredictability and violence of such events tends to lend further menace to them akin to the frequent and usually meaningless ‘Orange alerts’ issued regularly by the US government.

In addition, with a US presidential election approaching, the powers that be in Washington and the Pentagon cannot be seen to be too open in supporting a ruthless crackdown by an unpopular military dictator, especially with Mr. Bush’s own popularity ratings hovering in the 20 % range. Mr.Musharraf is also increasingly seen as a liability for America’s ambitions in Afghanistan where he and Mr.Karzai are increasingly at odds.

This leaves the door open for some kind of accommodation between the Army and the political parties. It should be remembered that for all their sloganeering, it was Ms. Bhutto and Mr.Sharif who rescued the army when it was in crisis between 1986 and 1989. Considering their popular support at the time, they could have taken concrete steps to shackle the army and institutionalize civilian rule. Instead, they concentrated on undermining each other while the army bided it’s time and waited for the next opportunity.

Ms.Bhutto had said publicly that she would be willing to work out an arrangement with Mr.Musharraf that would allow him to retain the presidency and even his post as army chief. This, of course, would have been a complete betrayal of the people of Pakistan. As it happened, the Army and their sponsors were not willing to tolerate even that token nod to popular rule and Ms.Bhutto’s fate was sealed.

As for the people of Pakistan, they would do well to remember the words of the great French revolutionary, St.Just who said that those who make revolutions halfway only dig their own graves. If they have roused themselves to come on to the streets, they should continue pressing the regime until it collapses. They should then demand free and fair elections with no preconditions. All retrogressive, anti-worker, anti-women and discriminatory legislation should be scrapped immediately, Mr.Musharraf must resign forthwith and the army should return to its barracks. In addition, the constitution must be amended to make forcible removal of a civilian government treason, punishable by death.

The authority of the Supreme Court and the Constitution must be paramount.

However, we should remember that Mr.Musharraf’s policies, like those of his counterparts elsewhere in the world are simply following the dictates of the World Bank and the IMF which demand favorable investment climates and maximum return on investment at the expense of spending on education, health, employment, the environment etc. It is only when there is an international movement to refuse these disastrous dictates that real development can begin. Historically, the regions and economies that have developed the fastest and furthest are those that have radically violated the so called ‘structural adjustment policies’ prescribed by international lenders. Following those dictates invariably leads to immiseration, environmental disasters and human misery. The government of a small, resource poor country like Pakistan cannot, unilaterally, oppose these behemoths. However, a genuinely democratic government, representative of the people of Pakistan can begin the process and lead the way for the rest of the region.