The tribal areas--heat is on!

Posted by viqarm on Wednesday June 25, 2008 10:29 pm



Jihadism is born.


Unless you're saying the soviet invasion of a'stan created jihadism, you need to qualify that..

Vikramadityaji,

Dont take Indus very strictly. What I meant was Sindh (incl Karachi) and Punjab on one side, NWFP/B'stan on the other.

Regards

"You are being needlessly alarmist. Things are very bad in NWFP/B'stan but the jihadis will never do well East of Indus".

Majumdar Sahib,
I am not alarmed in the least. This was bound to happen sooner or later given the calibre of leadership in Pakistan
post-MAJ.

Also, I realize that geography is not my strong suit - but I suspect that Karchi is West of Indus.

Amin sahib,

A few questions for you.

Why does USA want to stay on in A'stan? Is there any real strategic or commercial importance of A'stan? If not, does it really matter if it goes to Talibs or not?

Assuming that for some reason USA does ask Pak Army to crack down on militants? Why would Pak comply? What are the losses of defying USA and waht are the benefits of complying with?

Assuming that Pak Army goes ahead. The jihadis are as per many analysts ISI stooges. Wouldnt they be sitting ducks for Pak Army or have they like Frankenstein gone out of their control?

Who are the various players who are their in A'stan? How are their interests served by keeping A'stan on the boil?

Regards

Pavo,
That is afghan in you talking! There are more details in this story...

the question of paki intagencies in afghanistan is much debated. i did attend many seminars when this was discussed and the participants included NATO , US forces etc.

in Afghanistan even a new born child knows who is doing the infiltration.

there are various aspects of the issue.the paki agencies have been playing a doule game for long.they need the non state actors also and they need USA also.

now the USA has decided to call the bluff so the new US game plan of this kiani gillani combination . deal with the crooks like crooks . double talk with habitual double talkers.pretend that u think that pakistan is innocent and tell them to destroy their subsidiaries in the tribal area.all a game certainly but that stage is not far when the game will go out of control.then there will be no distinction of riend and foe.even the mughals played this game but in the end there will be ANARCHY Inshallah and the prices of real estate will dive deep down in pakistan.may be plots in nuclear bamboozled islamabad will be dirt cheap.this is not fiction.

my friend ravi rikhye has something to state :--

Ravi Rikhye on How Much Has Changed In Pakistan?

We are uneasy at reading in Jang of Pakistan that the civilian government has delegated to the Chief of Army Staff wide discretion to determine "... the quantum, composition and positioning of the military effort. While the chief of the Army staff would supervise the application of the military, the Frontier Corps and the law enforcement agencies, the instruments of the governor and the chief minister in their respective jurisdictions for law and order, will fall under the command of the COAS for operations."

Let the Editor plainly say that as far as he is concerned, Indian politicians are complete, total, unmatchable buffoons when it comes to their firm control of the military even in wartime. India was stalemated in Kashmir in 1947-48, again in 1965, lost the 1962 war against China, and was only partially successful in the 1971 War because of the braying asses called "politicians". The politicals called off Indian offensives in 1984, 1986/87, 1999, and 2002 intended to sort out the Kashmir problem. They aborted a 1986/87 plan to establish to China India's clear dominance of the Tibet border. They forced the army into a bad insurgency in Sri Lanka without the least comprehension of what they were doing. Admittedly, in many of the cases a supine and subservient army leadership acquiesced or actively collaborated with the civil leadership to undermine Indian national security.

Nonetheless, even though your editor was reckoned as so inflammatory on the subject of civilian interference in the military that a significant part of the establishment thought it might be better to lock him up, he has never, not even once, in 40 years suggested that civilian supremacy over the Indian military should be diluted or done away with in times of crisis.

Like it or not, this supremacy is the foundation on which democracy is built.

His stand on Pakistan and its army is exactly the same: under no conditions should the military be given unconstrained power over the civil power, even in the gravest of national security crises.

The Pakistan Army has always played the defining role in the politics of Pakistan, whether it has done so openly, or behind the scenes. We were very pleased when General Kiyani took over as Pakistan's COAS because he seemed to be free of the petty ambitions that has led the Pakistan military so many times to destroy democracy. We thought he wanted to take the army out of politics completely.

Instead after the civilian government has been restored, he has on several occasions made clear he will not tolerate civilian interference in the military and by inference said that he remains the final judge of whether or not the civilian government is competent to protect Pakistan's security and its national interests. That he has done so with zero bombast, without direct threats, in our opinion makes him a very dangerous Chief. He is known to be a very strong personality and cannot be corrupted. With exceptionally rare exceptions - Attaturk of Turkey comes immediately to mind - strong, incorruptible, and patriotic generals are the easiest to convince they need to take over to save the country.

So you can understand our unease. Why has the Army Chief been given sole authority to decide all military matters related to infiltration on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border? Please note how broad this mandate is in reality. The Pakistan army created the Taliban and continues to use it to further Pakistan's national security. Authorized infiltration from Pakistan to Afghanistan is the biggest problem in the region today. For all the helplessness the Army claims in stopping two-way infiltration, the reality is that unofficial infiltration is a relatively minor problem and the government can certainly make life very miserable for those who conduct operations with its sanction. Afghan militants are not infiltrating Pakistan. The trouble in Pakistan is caused by Pakistan militants who are also the cause of the Afghan fiasco.

And infiltration was for twenty years the key to Pakistan's strategy against India, and is again becoming the key strategy. With complete control over the western border, what is the betting that the Pakistan Army Chief has already claimed complete control over the eastern border? Again, Indian infiltrators into Pakistan are causing no more than occasional indigestion to Pakistan. It is Pakistani infiltration into India that has almost led to war at least twice, perhaps even three times, between India and Pakistan.

In effect all this add up to the unhappy circumstance that the Pakistani civil leadership has abdicated control over national security policy within months of assuming power.

We realize people will say: "But the only reason the Army agreed to restoration of democratic rule was after the civilians solemnly swear they would never interfere with the Army in any meaningful way. Nonetheless, at least there was hope that for once, after the death of Pakistan's founder, the civil government would have control over the Army. There is no no hope.

So, people can say, "Ravi, why are you complaining? With the Army in full control, its just a matter of time of before it provides India with a causus belli, and aren't you the one who ahs consistently said the problems created by Partition in 1947 can be resolved only by a Final War?"

Since most of our readers are Americans, we cannot bore everyone with fine explanations of the Ravi Doctrine. Basically, however, the Ravi Doctrine calls for India to start the Final War after deliberate planning to ensure all possible factors are working for India's success. The RD abhors a reactive war, which India has conducted on every single time except for 1971, with well-known results: a giant SNAFU. The RD says zero confidence exists that India can win a war it did not start for the obvious reason the adversary then defines the war, not you.

The RD also states, after very extensive analysis, that India needs 10 years of preparation - and complete civil-military harmony on the matter - before it can think of attacking Pakistan with assurance of success given India's political limitations.

The post-China War/1971 War generation is starting to come into power in all walks of Indian life. This is the first generation that does not define itself in terms of British colonialism and its aftermath. It is only when this generation comes to full power, perhaps in the next decade, that the process for the Final War can be begun. By full power we mean leadership of all aspects of Indian life: civil, military, political, corporate etc etc etc.

Any war with Pakistan or China begun before that time will lead to disaster. and yes, folks, China has to be sorted out just as much as Pakistan, and we dont think anyone will argue that India is anywhere near ready to show China its place.

So, people, your editor is worried about General Kiyani and any of his likely successors because they understand very well: letting India have the initiative means the end for Pakistan. From the viewpoint of GHQ, the war - and there has to be a successful war if Pakistan is to continue as a united, successful political entity - has to be begun by Pakistan when conditions are most favorable for Pakistan.

With the good General Musharraf out of the way - and he was definitely going wobbly on the question of India - Pakistan also has a new generation of military leaders coming up that have no memory of colonialism or its after effects. So you can see why the Editor is unhappy about the Jang article and its implications.

yes i agree that chowk has many infiltrators and not the right forum.

these guys have many relatives in the army .colonel yaqub mahsud sandhurst commissioned was an outstanding officer.not promoted by the punjabi establishment . and there were many others from the tribal belt.they could nit be as khushamadi as a punjabi and did not have that pindi jhelum sargodha garain system.baitullah may be getting aid from parts of the establishment but he is an independent actor and he has good inputs about the arm from may kinsmen who served in the army.

Posted by grandtrunkroad on Wednesday June 25, 2008 07:40 pm
HP: if you think Baitullah is being set up as a Zarqawi by the Pakistan army what do you think his motivations are for playing along and what do you think his long-term plan is? "

I would really like to answer this in details but can't do it here.Briefly, these guys are not some educated or sophisticated political operators. They are local thugs and are being paid tons of money and arms. They don't understand what there fate is.
Post you email and I will send you the blog link.

Ijaz and Pavo,
There are few things in your posts that I don't agree with. They are just too much.
I am closing this thread. I will be setting up a Blog soon and send you the link. I think we can't discuss any issue seriously on chowk any more. We will continue this discussion on my blog and I have some more friends who would join in.

Couple of my American friends from DC are interested too. So just wait a few more days. I will email blog link to you.
Anyone interested to visit that blog please post your email here or PM to me.
Thanks all!

Vikramaditya ji,

You are being needlessly alarmist. Things are very bad in NWFP/B'stan but the jihadis will never do well East of Indus. Punjabis (except few belts), Sindhis and Mojos are devout Muslims but not Talibs.

And if the Pak state wants they can still roll back things trans-Indus. Thru politcial and military moves and nation building.

Regards

I had the misfortune of posting this in October/2007. Looking back, the action seems to be proceeding acording to the script a bit behind the anticipated time frame:

-----------------------

... A tale of three decades:

1979 - Russia invades Afghanistan. Afghan refugees head south and east to Pakistan. American support, money, training, and weapons are forthcoming. Mujahideen emerge; Jihadism is born.

2001 - America invades Afghanistan. Afghan refugees again head south and east to Pakistan tribal areas. Southern Afghanistan becomes war zone. Mujahideen morph overnight into terrorists.

2002 - 2005 Pak and American military action in the tribal areas. Jihadist/terrorists organize and mount resistance. Refugees move further south and east towards NWFP settled areas.

2005 - 2007 Further Pak-American military action in Waziristan and Bajaur. Jihadist/terrorists continue to retaliate. Move into Swat, Tank; cameo appearance in Bannu and D. I. Khan.

2007 - Pak determined to act in Waziristan and Swat. Jihadist/terrorists put on suicide bombing, kidnapping and beheading show. Resistance continues. Displacement of radicalized refugees further south and east into the NWFP.

2008 - Pak bombing missions in Peshawar and the rest of NWFP. Kidnappings, bombings, beheading continue. NWFP becomes war zone. Radicalized refugees head for attock.

... Pak militarty high command continues its deep meditation at the GHQ, eyes and minds wide shut. Other orifices, especially in the rear, working in overdrive.
.
.
.
Further into the future - Pak military action in Islamabad. Jihadist/terrorist head for the Punjabi heartland.
.
.
.

Jihadist/terrorists sighted in the outskirts of Karachi. Pak army in full retreat towards the Arabian Sea.

Pakistans Strategic Dilemma



100 days is a long time in history if a country has leaders of substance ! The parliamentary elections of 2008 in Pakistan , it was thought would lead to a great political transformation ! A reasonable expectation provided the motivation to hold these was based on true nationalism and lofty ideals ! What most political analysts missed was the fact that the 2008 elections were designed by powers that matter on the global level as a means to achieve their strategic objectives in the region which comprises Pakistan.For years late Benazir Bhutto at various respectable forums in the west had tried to sell the idea that she was the West's and particularly USA's best bet to deal with the accursed Islamists.Finally in 2007 the idea was accepted an astute political salesman and persuader par excellence that she no doubt was.But strings were attached to the scheme.With master chefs and deputy chefs and kitchen general managers so that the broth finally cooked was according to USA's strategic culinary appetite.Thus the entry into the arena of many strange faces,particularly in the civilian decision making security apparatus was thus no mere coincidence.The USA generally has meticulous methods to identify good collaborators.These are generally identified and finally picked up while they are in junior ranking positions in the law enforcing agencies of Pakistan and its elite Civil service.These men are then groomed,rewarded by promotions and also continuously observed and scrutinized.Some are dropped as was the old fox Ghulam Ishaq first identified by the British and later adopted by American parents from State Department only to be dropped in 1990s when senility kindled the fire of nationalism in that old fox !

Seen in the above premise Pakistan's strategic dilemma remains a combination of following factors.Its collaborator classes including the army,the particular ethnic composition of these collaborator classes and the opportunist life script of these collaborator classes.Seen in historical context Pakistan was dominated by classes with roots in Imperial British Pre 1901 Punjab which included all land in between Jamna River in the east till the boundary of the settled Trans Indus Districts later renamed the NWFP after 1901.The tribal areas were not part of these collaborator classes.Sindh was of subsidiary value as it was not the main army recruiting area nor the crucial frontline province bordering Afghanistan behind which lay the main British threat i.e Czarist Russia.The Punjab became crucial after both Punjabis and Pashtuns from settled areas collaborated with the English East India Company against the rebels of 1857 who were led by Muslim troops of Ranghar and Hindustani Muslim ethnicity.This loyalty was but natural as the English East India Company had saved the Muslims of Punjab and settled area Pashtun districts from the Sikhs in 1849.British policy regarded Punjab as it existed in pre 1901 as its sword arm and best collaborator.The same trend continued after 1947.No less a person than Mr Jinnah realized that Pakistan could not exist without US military support.He made a bid for US support but was cold shouldered.Pakistan's civil service elite and the generals in line with best tradition of Punjab collaboration (and by that is meant pre 1901 Punjab including settled area Pashtuns) made concerted efforts practicing sycophancy and ball shining with USA.The exercise in boot licking finally worked out when the USA decided to employ the Pakistani state as its many minor dog catchers in the region.This was the time when Pakistan's army chief Ayub claimed that his best friend was CIA chief Dulles and Pakistan's army was USA's army in any operation against USSR and not only that against brother Muslim Iranians in safeguarding Iranian oil fields then held by the Anglo American oil interests.

Short words are best and shorter paragraphs and sentences even better.But Pakistan's chequered history cannot be expressed in brevity.The conspiracies were so complex and so soiled that the filth of gutters could pass as natural mineral water in comparison.After 1965 when the USA shunned Pakistan Pakistan's elite rediscovered Islam and made a change of paternity from US to Chinese.The trend accelerated after a humiliating defeat in 1971.No less a man than Z.A Bhutto played with Islam by declaring the Ahmadis non Muslim and banning liquor in army messes.The trend accelerated in 1977 after a US inspired coup in Pakistan in 1977.Following the leftist coup in 1978 in Kabul Pakistan's ruling military junta decided to have multiple strategic parentage which included China,USA and Saudi Arabia with the stated purpose of Islamic jihad in Afghanistan.The same trend continued with uninterrupted breaks till to date.

One major development in this period was the disillusionment of the Islamists with Pakistan's ruling military-civil elite after 9/11.This was a clear breach although it can be said that the Islamists have a certain base in Pakistan's military and intelligence set up.Nevertheless 2001 saw a clear divide.The country was divided ,the army was divided and challenged and Pakistan's non state militant actors decided to be independent of the military intelligence establishment.

The scenario which is likely to unfold is as following.The Pakistan Army which is now percieved as a Punjabi force in the Pashtun regions of Pakistan will be launched into new conterinsurgency operations.It will not make much difference and will only created further crisis.The army has been forced into doing this operatio as without US help it cannot survive.The situation will continue to deteriorate and the tribal areas would become a permanent ulcer for the Pakistan Army.All this would then justify a US operation.Basically heavy bombing with mopping out done by Pakistan Army.The whole exercise is all planned and both the Pakistani army and the new Pakistani political set up is a signatory to this protocol.As a matter of fact that is why the USA had forced Musharraf to have a ceasefire with the present ruling PPP led coalition in Pakistan.

This is the basic reason why the USA decided to employ a new combination of collaborators in Pakistan.A supposedly popularly elected government in Pakistan.The whole exercise was planned in advance.Nothing was randomly done.A change in the army top brass.A democratic revolution.All done with meticulous planning.Pakistan's civil military elite given another chance to prove the 1857 collaborator tradition.Pakistan's civil military ruling clique is however now the epitome of total failure.It is now a country deeply divide and at war with itself.

Thus the Mohmand attack by USA.A carefully planned exercise to sell the idea that if Pakistan's army does not act against the tribals and their Islamist friends Pakistan would be destroyed by USA.The Mohmand attack was done by the USA with full knowledge of the Pakistani establishmnt.Basically the Pakistani establishment wants to sell the idea that the USA can attack Pakistan so Pakistan Army must launch an operation in the tribal areas.Thus a new exercise in Punjab tradition with a Khattak and Yusufzai and perhaps a little Marwat mixture.The British must have briefed the Americans that in Muslims the Punjabis and in Pashtuns some tribes can be trusted.Thus a new exercise in collaboration par excellence.

However Pakistan's strategic dilemma now is that its raison d etre its Islamic ideology has been deeply compromised.Pakistan was created in the name of Islam but at that time too the Muslim elite was just using Islam to protect their class interests.Later over a period of time many in Pakistani masses discovered the concept of Jihad in Afghanistan and Kashmir.The test tube baby created by Pakistani intelligence and CIA got out of hand after 1990.The USA finally decided to silence the grown up test tube babies who had meantime multiplied after 9/11.A strategic decision was made to use the Pakistani forces as the tactical garbage collector.Further it was decided by the USA and NATO to play the ethnic card in Pakistan.On one side the army was pressurized to destroy the tribal Pashtuns.Thus two dual objectives were achieved.Destroy the army's credibility and destroy the Islamists.Thus achieve USA's strategic objectives in the region.Deny freedom of manoeuvre to all US forces.If Pakistan is destroyed and later Balkanised Al Qaeda is destroyed.Afghanistan is pacified and even Iraq can be controlled ! On 25 March 1971 East Pakistan was handed over to the Pakistan Army and Pakistan's Balkanisation was initiated.At that time US policy makers were happy that this would reduce communist influence in the then Bengal.Now on 25 June 2008 Pakistans Prime Minister has handed over the tribal area to the army.Pakistan may not recover from this unkindest cut of alls.May Allah help Pakistan.

Amin,
Yes I remember having taught you at college in your teens. Even then you were a breed apart from others and bent on reaching your independant conclusions based on good reading habits.

Amin,
Yes I remember having taught you at college in your teens. Even then you were a breed apart from others and bent on reaching your independant conclusions based on good reading habits.

Amin sahib/ HP sain,

Somehow I dont see how a fine fighting force like the Pak Army can be beaten by a bunch of rag tag fighters. Looks more like a conspiracy to get rid of the civilain Govt/

Regards

Posted by pavocavalry on Wednesday June 25, 2008 07:50 pm


1-The Indians will open an aid channel with insurgents through third parties posing as al qaeda and islamists.


Indians will aid the insurgents?

If this is the level of analysis among the paki strategic community, it's no surprise that pakiland is in the shape it is in...

the english east india company hired two of the sikh khalsas own generals lal singh and tej singh to destroy the khalsa which according to british historian colonel malleson was the best fighting machine in the then india.may be the americans hired pakistans generals , specially musharraf to do it.the present chief has hardly any control.this the time when the critical time span is over.now decisions or plans will not control events but events will control the decision makers.

i agree with my old instructor ijaz gul.

pakistan has been divided.civil war is on and will quickly go into settled areas.no army can safeguard a country internally if its populace is against it.

musharrafs collaboration is now showing its fruits.collaboration pushed too far and for personal reasons.zia also pushed it too far and was roasted in top quality aviation right on the hindu shamshan ghat on basti lal kamal on the sutlej.

an army oficer may become a general by khushamada and qaum bandi and stealing DS notes but at Datta Khel he has to be a man and this is a demoralised lot.Musharraf that American anaesthesist demoralised this army.this country is lost.

this is not a fighting army now .its a land mafia army now.

and finally, the army will stand disgraced in front of its people. The only custodian of Pakistan's nukes would have been shamed and decimated by its very own.

What a war. By the people and for the people. Thats called ECONOMY OF EFFORT

whats going to happen is as following :---

1-The Indians will open an aid channel with insurgents through third parties posing as al qaeda and islamists.

2-the afghan khad is already active through old khalqi pashtuns in afghan intelligence.

3-pashtuns in afghanistan will swell the ranks of tribals as they did even when fakir of ippi was fighting the army.

4-the pashtun portion of pakistani army would be severely demoralised and marginalised and the paki army would lose its multi ethnic character which it has with pashtuns and ranghars and sindhis ( although less)

5-the war will be intensified in pakistans settled areas right till karachi.

6-Even USA will use agent provocateurs to aid tribal insurgents so that they hit the paki army with maximum force and USA gains both ways , that is if a paki soldier is a killed or a tribal is killed.

And we have a political leader telling th army what to do.The master has to control the hounds.The army is a tool .If its allowed to be the master then no hope for the country.this army was a colonial collaborator force before 1947 and has remained so till to date and will outlast this country.they are very useful and cheap tactical garbage collectors of USA.

Just to refreshen memories, here are some of my views posted earlier.
----------------------------------------------------------
In the past six years Pakistan Army has taken flak from many quarters for the political decisions of its Commander, General (retired) Pervez Musharraf. These anti military chants however symbolic are in the backdrop of the biggest challenge the military has faced in internal security. The casualty toll of officers and men runs in thousands and continues to rise. Where are these sacrifices leading to? And why must we die for a cause, rejected by many Pakistanis are questions that are bound to trouble the soldier’s mind.
--------------------------------------------------------
9/11 gave a twist and time jump to events complicating Pakistan’s security concerns. The deliberate exclusion of Pashtuns from the political process in Afghanistan alienated the battle hardy Pashtun tribes and created an overlap between the Al Qaida Islamists and Pashtun. Northern Alliance was allowed to operate in Pashtun areas shattering the precariously held balance in Afghan politics for centuries. Any Pashtun quest for withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan was seen as an Al Qaida Threat. As the threat from both merged, Pakistan’s security concerns became graver.
----------------------------------------------------------
Standoff with India in 2000-2001 forced Pakistan to undertake military deployment in the East. Some security analysts believe that this Indian deployment was consented by USA. To further complicate security concerns, India went public with its ‘Cold Start Doctrine’ forcing Pakistan into forward deployments by pulling out formations from the Afghanistan Border. This made the geographically pervious frontier even more porous for militants to cross into Pakistan which they did.
-------------------------------------------------------
The flow of the so called Afghan Jihad into the autonomous tribal areas of Pakistan was facilitated. The US sponsored marshalling area to fight USSR was turned around. As in Afghanistan, a cocktail of religion and Pashtun nationalism diminished the role of Pakistani tribal maliks, who had controlled the area for hundreds of years. Pakistan lost political control of the area. Indian consulates operating close to Pak Afghan Border infiltrated insurgents to mix with the Taliban. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) resurfaced.
NOW ADD RUSSIANS, CHINESE, UZBEKS, IRANIANS AND EFCOURSE SAUDIS.
-----------------------------------------------------------
The army has run into an ambush. It now operates in a most hostile and unfriendly environment. Every operation is watched, every communication eavesdropped and treacherously, every movement ambushed. There are pro Pakistan Taliban, Afghan Taliban, nomadic revolutionaries of the Al Qaida strain, Chechens, Uzbeks, Uighers, Tajiks, criminals and smugglers to name a few; each with the strings attached elsewhere.
--------------------------------------------------------
From the mock jehad of the 80s, the region has now moved into a web of a mock anti terror fight. The objectives are two.
1. Control of Oil Resources.
2. Cut Nuclear Pakistan to size.
Till these two do not materialise, situation in Pakistan will get from bad to worse. Though I may sound alarmist, the inevitable is now in sharp perspective.

HP: if you think Baitullah is being set up as a Zarqawi by the Pakistan army what do you think his motivations are for playing along and what do you think his long-term plan is?

the main factor now is that the Islamists are out of control of the army and its int agencies,now its clearly punjabis versus pashtuns. that always was the case as the afghan war was the punjabi war to destroy the only pashtun ruled country in the world.

their will be serious military consequences.america wants the paki punjabi khattak yusufzai army but only as a tacical garbage collectors.denuclearation will be done and the paki politicians and generals will be kicked , which they thoroughly enjoy.

corection not 50 % but more than 60 % .Mujahids were an uneducated lot and could not have functioned an hour without these trained professionals.May Allag bless the soul of great General Yaqubi the great friend of many Pakistanis in exile in Kabul.

goatbrain: exactly what agency is "US MI"? You don't know what you are talking about...this is asia times part 2..

HP Sain ,the Soviets were taking between 30,000 to 50,000 Afghans to training every year to USSR and various Warsaw block countries.Inyelligence to institutions at Tashkent and Kharkov,airforce to Kiev,police to Riga,Kharkov,Kiev and army to Frunze Military Academy.A man born in 1965 went to academy in USSR in 1987 may be and did 5 years may be.Now those guys are major generals if good and majors if not prooted.They constitute the 50 % of the Afghan police army intellience foreign ministry civil service.last year i had a lady a Phd in economics from Moscow and a lady a Msc in petroleum engineering wotking with me as sub consultants.All these are in the government,ministries,NGOs etc.After 1992 they did changed sides for survival and were accepted as its the Afghan tradition.But they stil have the same ideas.Thats why he Northern Alliance is so refined and educated.The Afghans know that whatever the propaganda the USSR was a sincere friend of theirs.Not one Afghan was taken by the USA for a long course in USA.At that time USSR was taking 30,000 per year on 3 to 5 year courses.

HP,
YOU are painting a milder scenario than it is.

No, i left about a year back...the stuff that i hear now is even shocking to me.. A LOT has changed during this past one year... you are right about the zarqavi analogy... if these generals wanted to eliminate thugs like mangal and mehsud, then i dont think it would have been that big a problem... they are playing a double game... but how long you think they can carry it out? or are you saying that the US needs people like mehsud in the tribal areas to blame their lack of successes in Afghanistan on?

But I think our generals have always treated the tribal areas as the main tool in their obsession with the strategic depth... an experimental ground of sorts... i mean one can understand why zia would allow only religious parties to open shop in the tribal areas and ban progressive ones... but the same policy was continued through out the 90s and then musharaf too, did not address this policy... and that is just one blatant example of how much the people in charge actually want things to improve... or maybe how helpless they are in front of our military establishment.

But I think there is a limit to how much the army can spend interms of its credibility sooner or later they will have to eliminate names like mangal and mehsud... and claim victories in their war... only to be replaced by others name a few years down the line...

No, i left about a year back...the stuff that i hear now is even shocking to me.. A LOT has changed during this past one year... you are right about the zarqavi analogy... if these generals wanted to eliminate thugs like mangal and mehsud, then i dont think it would have been that big a problem... they are playing a double game... but how long you think they can carry it out? or are you saying that the US needs people like mehsud in the tribal areas to blame their lack of successes in Afghanistan on?

But I think our generals have always treated the tribal areas as the main tool in their obsession with the strategic depth... an experimental ground of sorts... i mean one can understand why zia would allow only religious parties to open shop in the tribal areas and ban progressive ones... but the same policy was continued through out the 90s and then musharaf too, did not address this policy... and that is just one blatant example of how much the people in charge actually want things to improve... or maybe how helpless they are in front of our military establishment.

But I think there is a limit to how much the army can spend interms of its credibility sooner or later they will have to eliminate names like mangal and mehsud... and claim victories in their war... only to be replaced by others name a few years down the line...

Adam,
“the pak army has a very high rate of killing people in friendly fire incident”

Brutality is a part of every army. When in trouble, they tend to shoot their way out. I think the army will start out with a propaganda campaign that the tribes are killing the Pak army for two goals.
1) It will make the reluctant army conscript to fire on Pathans
2) They will hide their own brutalities and use every channel to show how brutal Pathans are. They used the same approach with Bengalis.

“is to bolster the local opposition to these jihadis... recently baitullah's men slaughtered a jirga of bhittanis..”

You are missing the link here. The army has no intention to create goodwill or support there. They need to clear up the area for the US because the supposedly Taliban support in the area. Baitullah is army. They would rather kill his opponents to make him a leader. Baitullah will be like Zarqavi of Iraq.

“mangal bagh is consistently attacking ansar ul islam... preping up these local warlords will keep these guys busy in the tribal areas while the army can crack down on elements in the settled areas... barging into the tribal areas will again have the same result...”

Why do you think they plan to be in the settled areas?

I think the Army will not fight in the settled area. Too much ill will all over the country. They intend to fight in Tribal areas. You know these mangal shangal are army props.

“Also, another very worrying development is these various wahabi sources of indoctrination... from peace tv to al huda academy, they are all spreading the poison...”

They are fking ISI-CIA people doing their job. I hope Pathan catch them at least in the settled areas.
Media will not help you there. They will concentrate on nawaz, zardari or other dramas while the army is fking up the tribes.

Are you around Peshawar?

I think a military incursion would have the same effect as before, the jihadis are adept at leveraging the tribal unity against intruders. Furthermore, from what i followed through newspapers the pak army has a very high rate of killing people in friendly fire incident (dunno if those are intentional), which only adds to the ranks of the jihadis.

the best option IF the army is sincere in taking this menace on, is to bolster the local opposition to these jihadis... recently baitullah's men slaughtered a jirga of bhittanis... under the divide and rule doctrine the ideal thing right now would be to give full support to the bhittanis... we sent plain clothed soldiers in afghanistan in the 80s why cant we do the same here?

mangal bagh is consistently attacking ansar ul islam... preping up these local warlords will keep these guys busy in the tribal areas while the army can crack down on elements in the settled areas... barging into the tribal areas will again have the same result...

Also, another very worrying development is these various wahabi sources of indoctrination... from peace tv to al huda academy, they are all spreading the poison... there also has been a drastic change in the mindset of the people of Peshawar... those need to be countered for the long run through media and other channels... but the problem is that when it comes to islam we are a big khasi qom... i mean just look at the media's coverage of the recent ahmadi issue or the growing militancy in the tribal areas... they are simply numb... i dont know if its fear or something else but these jihadis need to be countered on ideological grounds as well cause this disease is spreading pretty fast.

"The Afghan drinks like no one else and they are a great people"
Telling me! I had a great time with them back in Pakistan,in tribal areas and also in LA.

I am just surprised! Khalqis and purchamis must be old now. I thought the Taliban purged the Kabul bureaucracy when they took power.
Anyway glad to hear some nationalists still carrying on the fight in Afghanistan!
That poor country has been fked royally by everyone including the Russians.

I used to read a blog by an afghan who appeared to be a khalqi or a purchami but that blog is gone now.

I have read this article.
Don't agree with this!
Referring to 9-11
"Their mercenary calling has been given a God-given opportunity! Without any deliberation, the military junta gave the US near divine status and offered their mercenary services against a neighbouring Muslim country."

The Pak army had a big role in 9/11. The phone call, the u turn and the rest is just drama!

soviet trained and still leftists at heart i must add . the main strength of northern alliance are also the leftist parchamis.Russians still have more influence in afghanistan than americans.

its not that KHAD now but note that still despite US efforts some 75 % of Police , Army,Intelligence and Foreign Ministry in Afghanistan are Soviet trained.My main condition in employing any person in my company was where he was in 1978-92.I preferred only khalqis and parchamis and they were good.the mujahids in afghanistan were called murdagaos which means P____s . Yes ISI cultivated some Khalqis like Tanai who was a general but Tanai is the most despised man in afghanistan.most parchamis joined Jamiat of Masud and Khalqis Hekmatyar but at heart they still have the same ideology.The Afghan drinks like no one else and they are a great people .their mosques were not used as stables after all .they have some pride , some spine.

PRAVDA Sep, 24 2001







Pravda.RU:Main:More in detail

16:20 2001-09-24

A.H.AMIN: THE INDO-PAK ARMIES AND THEIR MERCENARY CALLING

As the adage aptly describes, there is nothing worse than to do the right thing for the wrong reason. We may modify it slightly by rephrasing it as doing the right thing, or the supposedly right thing, for the wrong reason!
The pre-1947 Indian Army was a mercenary army composed of villagers from barren, rain-irrigated areas of India! These mercenaries were employed against their own people right from 1757! The Sepoys (as these mercenaries were called) fought for money just like the Senegalese in French occupied Africa fought for money! These mercenaries comprised many nationalities and religions. They killed the Santhals in Bengal and the Martathas in Central India; they destroyed Tipu Sultan in 1799; they fought against the freedom fighters of 1857 when a greater part of the Hindustani mercenaries rebelled against the British masters! They fought against the Punjabi Sikhs, who later on were enlisted as mercenaries! They fought against the Afghans in three wars during 1839-42, 1878-80, and in 1919. In addition, they fought in countless expeditions in the Trans-Indus Frontier from 1843 to 1946, destroying livestocks, razing villages to the ground, and destroying wells.
Internationally, these mercenaries fought against the Muslim Turks in the First Great War, against the Chinese in the Opium Wars and the Boxer Rebellion, and against the Germans and in the First and Second World Wars: all races that had nothing against India! In short, these men fought for a living against anyone, whether they be Muslim Christian, Buddhist, Indian, Turkish, German, or Chinese for a living! Espirit de Corps was a cleverly coined British ploy to galvanize these mercenaries.
There were exceptions to the mercenary rule. In 1857, the Bengal Army, some three-fourths of which was Hindustani Hindu led by one fourth Hindustani and Ranghar Muslims mostly from cavalry that rebelled against the English East India Company! Unfortunately, India was not a country, and the English Company found eager mercenaries in the northwest! They were eager to loot Delhi and panting to get land grants, Jangi Inams, and many more carrots that the cunning English colonials promised! Opportunism became the rule of Indian society, now known as Indo Pak, whether it was poets, educationists, lawyers, civil servants, or soldiers! The Indians were a defeated people and they thought that the White man was invincible! There were some exceptions to apathy when Sher Ali, a tall, muscular Pathan, stabbed the British Viceroy Mayo in the Andaman Islands in 1872! However, Sher Ali was an exception, and most Indians were far more pragmatic and opportunistic than a Pathan convict in Andamans! Thus, nobody remembers Sher Ali today except the Pashtun Students Federation, where his photograph tops the gallery of heroes! Sher Ali was ,however, an exception, and sycophancy and appeasement remained the cardinal lifescripts of most Indians. Some motivated Pathans of the tribal area minus the more opportunistic people of Mardan Charsadda Swabi Kohat and D.I Khan carried at the struggle that had its origins in Sayyid Ahmad Brelvis guerrilla war.
Then came the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05! The myth of European superiority was broken! Some audacious men, mostly Bengali Hindus, decided to strike back! A bold man called Rash Behari Bose actually attacked the British Viceroy Charles Hardinge with a bomb containing gramophone needles and nails while he was entering Delhi in 1813. Unfortunately, Bihari failed to kill the viceroy. However, terror struck at the heart of the British! Their viceroy was attacked not in far flung Andaman Islands but in the newly created imperial capital Delhi and not by a Wahabi but by a highly educated Bengali Hindu. Rash Bihari escaped, but the Indian Army did not wake up from the slumber of their mercenary sleep.
The First World War was yet another testing ground for the mercenary Indian Army. In the words of one British historian, the Punjabi Muslims stood staunch as a rock while there was a question mark over the Pathans. He did not ,however, add that these disloyal Pathans were not from settled districts of Mardan or Charsadda Kohat or Peshawar but from the tribal areas and from D.I Khan. Some Indian military men were ashamed of their degrading mercenary status and did rebel against the British. Notable among these were the Hindustani Muslim Ranghars of the 5th Light Infantry, who for some time captured Singapore; the Afridis of various Frontier Force Units, notably the indomitable Mir Mast Afridi; and some Mahsuds from the Mahsud Companies of the 129 and 130 Baluchis. Lastly, there were the Pathan Squadrons of Curetons 15 Lancers (the Punjabi Muslim Squadrons remaining pragmatically loyal).
All these men died, but all men are mortal. Is it death that our rulers are afraid of or is it a billion dollar package that will give them immortality? Is collaboration at the rate of few billion the golden lesson that they are leaving for posterity? A pragmatic lesson one must say. One important development took place during the First World War. The Sikh Ghadrites, a group of Punjabis, some Hindus, and mostly Sikhs, did manage to subvert the Indian Army from their mercenary calling. They did not succeed, but many soldiers of scribes unit 23 Cavalry were court martialled and executed for conspiracy against British Empire. On the whole, the Indian Army remained staunch even when martial law was imposed in Punjab in 1919, Gujranwala was bombed, many civilians flogged or made to crawl in the public, and many hundreds of civilians were killed by the army. The only inspiring incident of the Indian Army not being a mercenary force occurred in the 1930s, when the Garhwali Hindus soldiers of a unit of the Royal Garhwal Rifles refused to fire on the Pathan Muslim Redshirts demonstrating against the British. The Indian Army remained largely loyal in WW II, minus the Indian National Army in Burma. By and large, Indian independence had no connection with the Indian Army, who remained loyal mercenaries to the end to their British masters.
In India Nehru reduced the army to its correct place, i.e. a servile instrument of policy of the civilians. In Pakistan, because the Muslim League the political party that led Pakistan, there was an a party of soldiers with a mercenary past, and with nothing to do with the political struggle to free India, they were able to usurp power. Since they were leaders of a mercenary army rather than a national army, they made the USA their godfather, making professions of being the vanguard of the USA, whether it was the protection of Anglo-Iranian Oil Fields or supporting Anglo-French claims over the Suez Canal. In the process of this abject appeasement, they managed an aid package from the USA. This was sufficient to make the Pakistan Army a sophisticated army but insufficient to win a war against India, not because of material reasons, but because of poor higher leadership and strategic and operational ineptness.
All throughout this period, the common Pakistani was anti-US anti-West, pro-Arab, and pro-Muslim. However, the common man was only a servile tool , democracy having been destroyed by 1958. The army remained a mercenary army with little national participation. It fought the 1965 War well, albeit at a battalion level, since beyond the battalion level, the more senior ranks were ones who had been programmed by the pre-1947 British to be company commanders at best. The 1965 War proved to be a watershed in Pakistani history, since it made clear the fact that the army was not a national army , since it was without participation from the country’s east wing! This fact was realized by General Yahya, the new C in C, but it was too late. The result was a civil war followed by defeat in a conventional war and the break up of Pakistan into two states. Few lessons were learnt, and soon, the country’s first post-1946 democratically elected government was dismissed amidst allegations of superpower involvement. The army came with a 90-day promise to hold elections, which were never held. The gap between the people and the army grew, and the situation was saved only by the fact that the Zia military junta found a new master, more correctly a new paymaster, in the USA once the USSR invaded Afghanistan. For next nine years, Pakistan fought the USA’s war against communism, only to be conveniently discarded like an syringe with a decade long life. A syringe used to inject poison into the Red Army and then thrown into the incinerator of history!
Within three years of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, the USA was all keen to declare Pakistan a terrorist state; the Americans have short memories. Something like an impromptu encounter with a lass in a bar, followed by an expression of eternal love and everything forgotten the next day after the desired objective is achieved.
Suddenly, in September 2001, precisely on the 11th of September, the USA suddenly woke up from a thirteen-year attack of insomnia and remembered that they had a very close friend called Pakistan: cheap friend led by a machine with a mercenary past. Thus, the latest US-Pakistan nexus. What is the motivation of Pakistan’s military elite to appease the USA? They are a bunch of men who came into power in an impromptu manner and suffer from a crisis of legitimacy. Since the end of the Cold War, mercenaries were no longer in demand and Pakistan’s standing army was getting little aid from USA or any potential mercenary masters.
The strikes September, 11th 2001 changed everything! Once again, Pakistan’s elite got a chance that they had last received in 1979. Because they had missed one in the 1990-91 Gulf War, this time they are in no mood to miss another! Their mercenary calling has been given a God-given opportunity! Without any deliberation, the military junta gave the US near divine status and offered their mercenary services against a neighbouring Muslim country. Soon, this stand was rationalized by the military dictator in the name of Pakistan’s best interest; that India would benefit if Pakistan did not go on its knees to appease the Americans; that the Israelis would attack Pakistan; that the USA was lesser of the two evils. Pakistan, the so-called bastion of Islam despite its 500,000 man army and an arsenal of nuclear weapons, is literally crawling in diplomatic language to appease the Americans. If this state created in the name of Islam is so vulnerable, then it should be declared the fifty-first state of the USA. It be a Puerto Rico or Panama with a US military presence. Why all the macho talk about being Momins and soldiers of Allah? Soldiers of Allah who will be doing sentry duty around prospective airfields from where US aircrafts would fly to subject Afghanistan to fire and destruction! If a few billion dollars are so important, then what is the difference between Sepoy Khudadad who fought for 18 Rupees a month in the 1920s for the King and against his enemies? If this country cannot survive without oil imported for free or on a subsidized rate from a neighbouring country, why waste the tax payers' money on a foreign ministry that consumes some 28 crores per day! God may have made us poor, but we became Be Ghairat (Shameless) by our own choice!
There have been too many strange coincidences in the last month. The death of General G.A Khan, the descendant of the indomitable Alizais who defied British orders to fight against the Turks in Mesopotamia 1915 in Mesopotamia. The reader may note that the 15 Lancersso was an all-Muslim unit, but only its less pragmatic Pathan Squadrons refused to fight against the Turks, while the more pragmatic Punjabi Muslim Squadron obeyed orders like sheep. At the time of the blast, Pakistan’s top intelligence official was in USA. The Chinese decided to make a port at Gwadar, which could also be a naval base. The Talibans were close to complete victory in Afghanistan!
The year 2001 is a watershed in Pakistani history. Either Pakistan will be condemned to be a country ruled by mercenaries, or it will became a true republic, an Islamic Republic or whatever one may call it. Are we so weak that one threat from a bully with an average IQ sends our leaders , so-called martial men who wear camouflage commando jackets, a clear and total violation of the army dress code, of the Pakistan army down to their knees? What is the use of a Chinese policy if one ultimatum evaporates all the resolution that our military leaders are supposed to have? It makes one think whether or not the Holy Kaaba is in Mecca or a few thousand miles further West.
To stab your neighbor in order to gain a few billion is being rationalised as pragmatic foreign policy. Even a courtesan called Hazrat Mahal did not collaborate with the British, fighting the war of Independence in Lucknow. She did not surrender even once Lucknow was recaptured in March 1858 and died in exile in Nepal. Pragmatism would have meant accepting a pension that the British offered her and settling in India. However, this dancing girl was not a mercenary!
What has happened? Our rulers have accepted the role of glorified coolies and camp followers of the USA! This country's rulers had sold their souls in 1954 once the first major treaty with USA was signed. After a great deal of kicking during the period of 1990-1999, they regained some pride.The year 2001 has robbed this nation from being a nation of resolute man. We have been auctioned for a few billion dollars. Auctioned because a superpower wants access to the strategic underbelly of Russia and China. Auctioned because of valid strategic reasons. Our leaders have not learnt anything from Machiavelli, whom they do try or claim to read. The men who collaborate with any superior power or play bargaining games with it are the first targets. Thus, the fate of Liaquat in 1951, the fate of Bhutto in 1979, and that of Zia in 1988. We have everything written on the wall. Its only the lack of perception that makes us blind. Even Russia and China will be the losers! This so-called attack will stop on the Oxus River or at the Wakhan Strip. It will spread on into Chinese Turkestan (Sinkiang), Tajikistan, Kazakhastan, and to the Urals. If there is a minor Muslim separatist threat in China or Russia today, after a few years, these separatists will be getting Stingers to fight with until Siberia, Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and Sinkiang are sattellites of the Western powers. The Iranians are secretly rejoicing, but they must not forget that a Sunni Afghanistan is less of a threat than an Afghanistan administered under a US or UN mandate. The Talibans in all probability may be crushed, but Afghan nationalism will survive! Their will be new groups, new Ahmad Shah’s, nd new Hikmatyars who will fight a new Holy war against US occupation with Chinese- and Russian-supplied weapons, such as those from the CIA during 1979-88. The Russians must forget how the USA had behaved when they occupied Afghanistan in 1979. 14,000 Russians died, most because of of weapons supplied to the Afghan resistance by CIA. The USSR must redress the balance of 1979-88 during 2001-10. Let the invaders come and settle down in Kabul and Kandahar and then send gifts of 100 body bags each day to their home country!
Is this country a private security agency that can be hired for a few billion dollars? If that is the case, why not lease our forces to fight as mercenaries as they did before 1947? Never in Pakistani history was collaboration so openly defended and propagated. Even Finland, a country far smaller than Pakistan, fought without US or British aid honorably for a certain duration of time. Are the
Indians such a threat that we have to compete with them in being timid and shameless? The mercenary calling of our state has once again triumphed! The "bastion of Islam" is too weak to withstand one verbal volley of a man who is angry about something that has happened many thousand miles away from this country. To compound things further, we have journalists, thinkers, and so-called experts busy writing articles for Hazoor ka Iqbal Buland Karna!
Opportunism, which was instilled in us by the British in 1757, has once again triumphed! Two countries were created in the name of religionto date,i.e., Israel and Pakistan. Israel has fought for its ideology. Ironically, Pakistan has retained its mercenary character. Wrong, forever on the throne and truth, forever on the Scaffold!

A.H.Amin

"the ex serviceman tirade against musharraf is an exercise with secret blessing of the army to restore army's credibility "

Agree with that entirely. It was partly their presence that cause aitzaz to run away from the dharna!

Punjabi or not, the army has lost credibility big time. I have not seen so many abusing the army in Pakistan. In the old days, the amry was like the gift of God and during a speech during zia period in Lahore some people tiried to beat us up. Calling Sindhi ghadar.

It is healthy change and would have amounted to a lot for democracy but the army won't let pak stay united, if the army has no role to play.

Khalqis are still around? They are resilient!

Yes Khad has a big role but ISI has many contacts from the old days!

iran has also two other allies in tribal areas.Turi tribe in parachinar is 100 % shia while bangash in kohat are 30 to 50 % shia.note that in lal masjid operation many pakistani officers were shia so there was the sectarian angle also.

the ex serviceman tirade against musharraf is an exercise with secret blessing of the army to restore army's credibility saying oh it was that hindustani clown who did so and the real martial boys are the punjabi muslims who were dominated by 6 % sikhs and only rescued by the english east india company.

however as i see the punjabi army has lost its credibility in the pashtun belt forever.now it has only yusufzais and khattaks who are supreme opportunist like the punjabis .

it was the british army till 1947.after all the brits saved the punjabis and settled area pashtun from rape by the sikhs.badshahi mosque was a stable.now its USA's army.in guerrilla war the conventional forces cannot win unless the unconventional forces lose.the tribal area is heavily charged with propaganda.on one side is the punjabi christian army propaganda.on the other side the old khalqi element in khad is active in tribal areas.by the way most of these khalqis joined talibs or hikmatyar.mangal is ISI's man brought as a showpiece to create some nonsense value when he attacks the NATO/US supply routes.the afghan talibs are getting strong however.its impossible to travel from kabul to kandahar by road.