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The Autumny Summer of 2008

Posted: Oct 10, 2008 Fri 11:10 am     Views: 381    Interacts: 3

It appears that after the Breton Woods, the world is gearing to take the shock of the biggest financial crunch since the crash of 80s.
The Oil Crises of 1973 triggered a snowball of petro dollars with oil producing countries. However by 1989, it has been successfully converted into the debt of third world countries through institutional and state controlled borrowing and lending.
The Soras crash was short and swift. It proved how individuals blown by the winds of free market economy and liberalism could effect the nation states.

However controlling the biggest finance and brokerage houses, USA did not feel necessary to apply any checks. The power of SECP was marginalized in face of high speed computer simulations that promoted the finance houses to take more risks.

Today the crises places the Asian Finance Houses that had hedged investments in the US System through lending are likely to suffer most.

The cycle may lead to some constraints on liberalism as also test the existing alliances of major economic blocs.


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Latest comments
Posted by quin on Saturday October 11, 2008 06:15 pm
sorry, I somehow missed this. I suggest if possible to develop your thoughts on this topic into an article for FP.
Posted by ijaz_gul on Friday October 10, 2008 07:42 pm
The Foreign exchange reserves with private Banks are the issue because Dubai has become a very big currency market. The question is where will these dollars be deposited. Not in financial institutions. They will remain in pockets or some very reliable banks.

Must also remember that exchange flows are monitored a la WOT.
Posted by ijaz_gul on Friday October 10, 2008 11:30 am
Pakistan will survive this financial meltdown despite a High Intensity Conflict that rips it. The focus of investors will shift for a short time from Stocks and Banks to Real Estate, speculative buying/selling. Within the next 12 months, agriculture production despite Indian arm twisting of rivers will give a respite to the strained GDP. GNP will grow due to devaluation. The government has curb to luxury imports, consumer items that can be substituted domestically and look for some deferred payments on major imports. GDP is not likely to sink as low as 3.7. At worst, it may remain just below 5 and above 4.

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