Watching Poverty Grow

Dear Rashid Sahib,

very thought provoking article with statistics. i really enjoyed the last paragraph
Generations of Pakistanis are condemned to a life-time of hard labor on empty stomach, to pay for the war, army, ministers, senate, parliament, international aid, loans and donations, and they will remain indebted to the donor countries without receiving a dime of help. The military and their feudal allies borrow on behalf of the people to keep their business running while the people sink deep in debt and poverty.

aslo you brought up a great point on Benazir Income Plan. i have heard that if you give me a fish, you feed me for a day. if you teach me how to catch a fish, you feed me for life. instead of creating jobs and opportunities, we are given the masses free amounts for doing nothing. lets call it benazir indolency program.

malikrashid,
Pakistan remains behind India and Bangladesh in terms of literacy. But it made significant gains during Musharraf years, according to World Bank data below:

Literacy in Pakistan rose from 45 to 54 percent between 2002 and 2006, and net primary enrollment rates increased from 42 to 52 percent. But Pakistan’s participation rates remain the lowest in South Asia and there are wide male-female, inter-regional and rural-urban disparities:
- Only 22 percent of girls, compared to 47 percent boys, complete primary schooling
- Female literacy in rural Balochistan is only 32 percent compared to high urban male literacy rates (80 percent among urban male in Sindh

http://www.worldbank.org.pk/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/SOUTHASIAEXT/ PAKISTANEXTN/0,,contentMDK:21608863~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~print:Y~theSitePK: 293052,00.html

malikrashid,
Pakistan's education bashing has become a favorite pastime of many analysts in Pakistan. So, for objective analysis, let's look at India's educational quality.

A few Indian schools in top tier, such as the elite Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), can be reasonably compared to world-class schools, but the American investors and businesses have finally learned the hard way that there is huge gap between the few tier one schools and the tier two and three in India. The quality of education most Indians receive at tier 2 and 3 schools is far below any acceptable quality

Looking at the top 500 universities in the world, one can see a few universities from India and a few more from Muslim nations such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. Many new world-class universities are now being built in several Muslim nations in Asia and the Middle East, and they are attracting top talent from around the world.

A survey of human resource professionals at multinational corporations in India revealed that only one quarter of engineering graduates with a suitable degree could be employed irrespective of demand (Farrell et al., 2005). Another survey of employers shows that only a handful of the 1400 engineering schools in India are recognized as providing world-class education with graduates worthy of consideration for employment (Globalization of Engineering Services, 2006). These results suggest that engineering degrees from most Indian colleges do not provide signaling value in the engineering labor market. Hence, low quality (in the labor market sense) engineering schooling has come to predominate in the education market. The current situation, with an abundance of low quality engineering schooling, is considered objectionable by many in the Indian polity and is also projected to stifle growth of the Indian economy (Globalization of Engineering Services,
2006).

Here's an anecdotal assessment of the quality of Indian graduates by an India I saw recently on Chowk.com:

"I don't think all university graduates are conversant with English( though it is not immaterial)...At least my sister and so many others from West Bengal (MA degree with decent knowledge about the subject)...
15%-20% graduates from India are good enough...
From my own experience and campus recruitment, I am engaged in, the fresh Engineering Graguates even in Computer Science are not employable...They lack something, which is required for the industry....For example, you ask people about sorting algorithms, everyone stops at quick sort, though the book and syllabus covers everything...
90% of the people do not know, application of signly linked list and where it should be preferred...what about B+ tree?...basics of file system...basics of memory management...It is not that rosy, the way some people in USA tries to project...but the basic advantage, we had is, we know we are from disadvantaged section and most of the people are too concerned on job related stuff....that makes people in India faster learner (specialy girls)....And you are correct; even with 20% employable graduate, India should be able to challenge the intellectual supremacy of USA....So are Chinese people....but not in near future ( 10/15 years)"

In terms of the quality of secondary and tertiary education, India also ranks very low among the emerging economies, according to a study published in Silicon India. The drought of education in India has reached the extreme as it ranks sixth among the seven emerging economies of the world, in terms of education quality. The country has scored only 3.3 points in the study, in terms of primary, secondary, tertiary and demographic parameters, while Russia topped the chart with 7.3 points.

As per the Assocham study, India was at the last position in terms of quality of secondary education while Russia and Brazil had maximum scores. The quality of tertiary education in India was lowest among the other emerging nations. The points it scored on the scale of 2, was 0.1. Even though the demographics of India are considered its strength, the country has scored the minimum in this too and was ranked at last place. Moreover, in terms of students enrollment for primary education, India is highly incompetitive with the gross enrollment ratio standing at 98.1.

"Serious attention needs to be paid towards the education system. India may stand to loose its competitive advantages against the other countries in long term if corrective measures are not taken to strengthen the Indian education system qualitatively," said Sajjan Jindal, ASSOCHAM President while releasing the ASSOCHAM Eco Pulse (AEP) Study 'Comparative Study of Emerging Economies on Quality of Education'. It was carried out on the basis of 20 parameters relating to primary, secondary, tertiary education and higher education and demography and data provided by UNESCO, IMF, WEF, Financial Times was used for the purpose.

Among the rest five countries, China has secured second place with scoring 6.7 points, while Brazil has positioned itself at third place with 5.56 score points as the quality of education in Brazil remains stable across all levels of primary, secondary and higher education. Mexico has been ranked at fourth place on the strength of its higher education. South Africa, a relatively new entrant to the club of developing economies, has managed to be on fifth place on the strength of its tertiary education and demographic qualities though it lags far behind in primary education. However, Indonesia stands at the last position with an overall score of 2.68 points. The gross enrollment ratio is highest in Brazil (148.5), followed by China (116.2) and Russia (113.8). Even Indonesia (110.9) and South Africa (105.1) enjoy better enrolment ratio than India.

However, only in terms of teacher-student ratio the country outsmarts all as in India for every forty students, there is one teacher.

Are the harsh judgments of Pakistan's higher education quality justified? Especially, when compared with other mainstream institutions in the region? You be the judge.

Mr. Haq
Since I find you comparing India and Pakistan often, I will really appreciate if you compare education in the two countries. I look forward for your analysis and info on this. Thanks.

Mr. Haq
Since I find you comparing India and Pakistan often, I will really appreciate if you compare education in the two countries. I look forward for your analysis and info on this. Thanks.

Pakistanis are not alone in their suffering. In fact, Pakistan ranks at 61 on World Hunger Index, considerably better than India, Bangladesh and others in the region. Here is a recent Times of India report headlined "India Tops World Hunger Chart":

NEW DELHI: India is failing its rural poor with 230 million people being undernourished — the highest for any country in the world. Malnutrition
accounts for nearly 50% of child deaths in India as every third adult (aged 15-49 years) is reported to be thin (BMI less than 18.5).

According to the latest report on the state of food insecurity in rural India, more than 1.5 million children are at risk of becoming malnourished because of rising global food prices.

The report said that while general inflation declined from a 13-year high exceeding 12% in July 2008 to less than 5% by the end of January 2009, the inflation for food articles doubled from 5% to over 11% during the same period.

Foodgrain harvest during 2008-09 is estimated to be a record 228 million tonnes. However, the requirement for the national population would exceed 250 million tonnes by 2015.

India ranks 94th in the Global Hunger Index of 119 countries, the report said.

Brought out by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), the report points to some staggering figures. More than 27% of the world's undernourished population lives in India while 43% of children (under 5 years) in the country are underweight. The figure is among the highest in the world and is much higher than the global average of 25% and also higher than sub-Saharan Africa's figure of 28%.

More than 70% of children (under-5) suffer from anaemia and 80% of them don't get vitamin supplements. According to the report, the proportion of anaemic children has actually increased by 6% in the past six years with 11 out of 19 states having more than 80% of its children suffering from anaemia.

Percentage of women with chronic energy deficiency is stagnant at 40% over six years with the proportion in fact increasing in Assam, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana during the same period.

The report said that the ambitious Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) was failing. "Apart from failing to serve the intended goal of reduction of food subsidies, the TPDS also led to greater food insecurity for large sections of the poor and the near-poor. These targeting errors arise due to imperfect information, inexact measurement of household characteristics, corruption and inefficiency," the report said.

It added, "Another problem of the TPDS was the issue of quantity of grain that a household would be entitled to. The TPDS initially restricted the allotments to BPL households to 10 kg per month. For a family of five, this amounts to 2 kg per capita. Using the ICMR recommended norm of 330 grams per day, the requirement per person per month would be 11 kg and that for a family of five would be 55 kg."

The Union Budget of 2001 increased the allotment to 20 kg per month and raised it further to 35 kg in April 2002.

The report also questioned the government's definitions of hunger and poverty. "The fact that calorie deprivation is increasing during a period when the proportion of rural population below the poverty line is claimed to be declining rapidly, highlights the increasing disconnect between official poverty estimates and calorie deprivation," it said.

"Nutrition security involving physical, economic and social access to balanced diet, clean drinking water, sanitation and primary healthcare for every child, woman and man is fundamental to providing all our citizens an opportunity for a healthy and productive life," said Prof M S Swaminathan.

Almost 80% of rural households do not have access to toilets within their premises. The figure exceeds 90% in states like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa and MP.

The proportion of stunted children (under-5) at 48% is again among the highest in the world. Every second child in the country is stunted, according to the health ministry's figures.

Around 30% of babies in India are born underweight.

Not long ago I would have agreed 100% that Pakistan's army has sunk the economy and for no good reason. My view has changed recently for two reasons:

1- Engergy/Water crisis has drowned us (pun intended). Shortage of energy has mutilated our growth- lack of water has stunt our growth:

2- Recent onslaught of mullahs and army's response has severed the umblical chord attaching the mullahs and the army.

As long as Pakistan's army stays the course to rout out the fundamentalist thugs- they will have my support (and money).

What to talk of concessions,the guaranteed Constitutional rights are not "granted" by the short sighted which is one of the reasons why we are where we are now and all of us have to pay a nine times heavier price and that too eroded by rampant inflation,please-a stitch in time saves nine !

You are right about the tax issues. the machinery is old, under developed and not equipped to actually get the revenue flowing. What is coming is through withholding taxes. Direct taxation always has taken a back seat in Pakistan's economic management and frankly I do not see it improving in substance. We may go on raising taxes on salaries but it will not take us anywhere.

Thanks for your response and I appreciate the valuable info you provided. The IMF loan that Pakistan needed in an almost emergency situation a few months ago stipulates that Pakistan's budget deficit be kept below 4.6%, hence the government intends to borrow locally and internationally to cover-up the difference.
I totally agree with your assessment that agricultural income should be taxed to broaden the tax base but the government insists that they could raise tax from the efficient use of the present structure. The deliberate negligence or hypocrisy of the rulers is obvious. There has been no measure in the budget towards a reconciliation between the federation and provinces. Again, it shows ignorance towards a very sensitive issue.
The information on India could be helpful in some ways but I do not think that a comparison of the problems and possible solutions could help resolve issues that Pakistan faces.

Pakistan's budget represents only about 11% of nation's gdp. So, even a 5.4% budget deficit is minuscule in the overall national context.

Pakistan's problem is structural, with so few people paying taxes. For example, the entire farm income earned by the big feudal elite is exempt from taxes. It needs to be taxed like any other income to generate sufficient funds to deliver basic services like education, healthcare, infrastructure, sanitation, poverty alleviation etc.

At the same time, there is a need to incentivize and encourage a robust, well-funded private sector to address the monumental needs of human development in Pakistan.

Across the border in India, the Indian governments takes in about 17% of the gdp as revenue. But, in 2009-10 budget, fully two-thirds of it is allocated for non-productive, non-dev uses like military, police, various paramilitary and security forces and debt payment. So people's needs for education, healthcare, poverty alleviation, sanitation etc. get very low priority in the Indian budget.