BB's projected landslide

Despite the conflagration in the NWFP and FATA regions, Benazir's looking set to see her party through toward a massive victory. Nawaz Sharif's absence is the biggest factor. PPP could have ended up as the largest party, but without NS in the picture, a majority of seats in the NA for the PPP is foreseeable.

Speculative, but alternative breakdowns are even more so. BB's cornering the Army, blessed by America, and most importantly, the only leader in the country that commands a solid following. It is not that difficult for political leaders to take a stance that their followers are chanting. But those who turn down the chants of their followers and still compel them (albeit with lots of grumbling) toward a (seemingly) less desirable direction, those leaders are in a league of their own. BB's managed to do the latter.

She could conceivably take 35 seats from Sindh (out of 61). 27 was the count in the last election without her in the country. Punjab has 148 seats. Currently PPP is the second largest party in the Punjab. A distant second. Without Punjab's most popular leader (whose party in the last elections was tied a pitiful third with the independent candidates), PPP has the floor set. There's general agreement with the way Shah Mehmood Qureishi has organized and prepared the party in Punjab managing to successfully organize large rallies. Winning half the seats in Punjab is not an impossible target - and if the Q-League is left to fend for itself - ie in a free and fair election, we could see BB outdo ZAB's performance in the Punjab (especially with the anticipated turn coats). NWFP would have been the most competitively contested province with the ANP, PPP, MMA and PML-N/Q (at least in two of the districts). Re-teaming with Sherpao (with two seats) could get her a few additional seats in NWFP. Not sure how it'll work out in Baluchistan. But NS's absence has left BB with an opening to secure an out-right majority in the 272 seat NA.

This is a likely scenario particularly if BB gradually moves to start calling the shots. Being the only national party, with a solid vote-bank across the different provinces, PPP's return to power could prove helpful in a disintegrating country.

It's not ideal, but there's a political vacuum. And the Punjab and Sindh aren't going fundo and MMA's heavenly Mush-blessed tenure is over.

Hopefully PTI can bag a couple of additional seats in the process.