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29 July 2003



Pakistan's Power Equation and Geopolitical Future

A.H Amin



We start with the premise that religion was employed by the Muslim elite right from the very beginning to galvanise the Muslim masses ! The masses were galvanised to fight and die in the name of Islam , while the elite classes reaped the harvest ! While this was the case from the earliest Muslim invasions of India we shall only discuss Pakistan's power equation in its present historical context.



The Indo Pak Muslims played a leading part in the 1857 rebellion while the vast bulk of the army that rebelled in 1857 was Hindu ! After 1857 the Muslim elite adopted a policy of "loyalism" to the British.This policy continued till 1947 and after 1947 the British were replaced by the Americans !



Symbolically although it may sound unpleasant one may compare the Indo Pak Muslims of pre 1947 as a damsel , half raped by Hindu and Sikh resurgence saved by an English knight in the shining armour i.e the " English East India Company" ! It is unheroic , but remains a fact ! By 1803 Delhi the old Muslim capital was firmly in Hindu Maratha hands while Muslim majority Punjab and Frontier was firmy under Sikh control ! Muslim ruled Sindh and Bahawalpur were only saved from Sikh occupation since the Treaty of Amritsar of 1809 between the English Company and Sikhs forbade Sikh expansion east of sutlej and in Sindh !



The Indian Muslims were politically backward and saved from political extinction once the British for their own reasons of divide and rule granted them right of separate electorate in 1909 !



The major Muslim leader of pre 1947 Mr Jinnah was initially a pork eating whiskey drinking Indian nationalist but was forced to adopt slogans of Muslim cimmunalism since Gandhi and Nehru sidelined him from main Indian nationalist leadership since Jinnah was not a Hindu , although Nehru was only a born Hindu and an atheist at heart !



Thus Mr Jinnah without the religious slogan was confined to Muslim minority provinces in 1937 elections ! The approach of Second World War and Congress's anti British stand afforded Jinnah with an opportunity to side with the British Raj in WW Two by encouraging Muslim support to British war effort .The British viceroy Linlithgow then asked Jinnah that he must have a concrete slogan ! Thus emerged the Pakistan Resolution of 1940 !



In 1947 Mr Jinnah concluded that since now the British who had saved the Indian Muslims from Hindu domination were gone he must find new protectors ! Thus the US -Pakistan collaboration !



Mr Jinnah's successors were removed by the military usurper Ayub in 1958 and Ayub attempted to transform Pakistan into a relatively modern state led by a monopoly of industrialists and feudals ! The attempt failed in 1969 !



Pakistan's first and only major ideological leader was Mr Z.A Bhutto who coined the term " Islamic Socialism" ! Bhutto created Pakistan's only solid political party and galvanised the masses by slogans of Islamic Socialism and egalitarianism ! Bhutto's ideological appeal and charisma survived his judicial murder by the military usurper Zia.



Bhutto's party remained engaged in struggle with the military junta and won the 1988 elections held in the aftermath of the dictator Zias aircraft crash !



1988 was the turning point in Pakistan's political history ! Bhuttos opportunistic daughter Benazir exchanged ideology for power ! The army and its intelligence set up and a conservative president was given a share in the power and the great Bhuttos daughter excelled not in socialist policies but in financial deals !



This situation enabled the military junta to repalce Bhutto by a military backed Nawaz Sharif twice in 1990 and 1997 ! By 1997 Nawaz became politically mature and turned the tables on the military sacking first a naval chief on charges of corruption in a submarine deal and then the army chief General Karamat for corruption charges in the Ukrainian tank deal !



Nawaz then led Pakistan while Pakistan detonated its nuclear device in 1998 and then went forward to make peace with India which was sabotaged by the army's Kargil faux pas !



Nawaz was overthrown by Musharraf in October 1999 once Nawaz was also planning to remove Musharraf !



Musharraf came to power with high ideals and promises to eliminate corruption but ultimately used the army's coercive anti corruption organ NAB designed to eliminate corruption to buy corrupt politicians to form a pro military party PML Q !



The events of 9/11 proved that the Pakistani military junta had no balls to resist any American pressure and the post 9/11 Pakistani policy again proved a watershed since it divorced the army from Islamic ideology and adventurism which the military had used to secure its very personal trade union of generals agenda since 1958 !



The following are the salient features of Pakistan's power equation :--



1- All political parties are now directly or indirectly manipulated by the army's intelligence agencies either by blackmail , by coercive policies of NAB for involvement in corruption cases or by confinement of various political leaders in jail .Nawaz Sharif and company are politically sidelined , financially on the retreat since their businesses are nearly blocked , and keen to compromise with athe army who no longer needs them. Benazir has no ideological agenda and wants power .She lobbies in the West that she is West's best bet against fundamentalism , an idea which no longer sells since General Musharraf has already proved that he is USA' s best collaborator .The religious MMA despite all its slogans of Islam is either in league with the military intelligence or blackmailed by the agencies or keen to enjoy the rewards of power !



2-The judiciary has been bought by the army or reduced to impotence !



3-The common man is in the grip of inflation and unemployment and is disillusioned with politics .



4-The smaller provinces i.e Baluchistan and Sindh are sidelined and can in the future incline towards secession at some stage !



5- The army has destroyed or corrupted all major political and other institutions and is now fully involved in business and commercial activities of all types !



6-The country's majority province Punjab is led by collaborator politicians who have agreed to be loyal to the military since their corruption has been condoned by the military !



7- The elite classes and the middle classes are by and large in favour of the military junta since it promises order and security .



Out of this the following scenario emerges :--



1- The USA can very conveniently strike any deal with Pakistan's military junta ignoring Pakistani masses aspirations and all political parties since no Pakistani party has any ideology or agenda less personal interest .



2-Within 5 years Pakistan would be as irrelevant to the region as Mexico is to North America or Bhutan to India.



3-The Pakistani politicians if need be would as easily compromise with any occupying power whether it is India or USA just to continue to enjoy their personal perks and privileges !



4-At some stage the Pakistani military would lose so much of its credibility that it would no longer be able to control the situation . This is because within the next five years war would no longer be the favoured form of policy and the existing geopolitical situation would demand that India and Pakistan's huge military establishments are reduced .





Conclusion



If this was to be the future of a state created in the name of ideology,sacrificing millions in the name of religion , a united India was a better option !



If the Pakistani state was destined to be ruled by corrupt politicians and generals it would have been better if India was not divided !



But British imperial interest and the interests of the elite classes demaded otherwise ! Thus the whole farce in the name of religion ! Self deception par excellence !