Strategic Naivette-A.H Amin-June 2005-Afghanistan Strategy

Strategic Naivette

A.H Amin

23 June 2005


There is little doubt that Afghanistan is the new US Philipines just like Pakistan is the old US Philipines.Afghanistan was never the invincible tract of land as projected in cold war anti Soviet propaganda.Saved from Russian domination by British Grand Strategy Afghanistan initially followed a skilful foreign policy soliciting aid from both USA and USSR but the path was narrow and finally the fall from the narrow rope on which Afghanistan had walked came in 1973 when at last the Soviets gained ascendancy.My old comrade Watanjar removed Daud Khan as swiftly as he had brought him with all the dash and elan that only a Paktiawal has !

Then began the grand party for the Pakistani military junta led by the tailors son Zia.The Pakistani military junta had a grand party gobbling huge chunks of US aid alongwith CIA sleuths,Afghan so called Mujahideen etc.The party ended in 1989 when the Soviets withdrew,not because the Afghans were more martial or the ISI subtle but because the USSR had its own very personal Russian internal problems.Note that while 60,000 Americans died in Vietnam only 14,000 Soviets about one third Muslim died in Afghanistan.

One may give 100 marks to the agency that removed the Zia regime from the scene by the grand strategic crash of the metal Lockheed bird carrying the Pakistani military junta straight down to the Hindu Shamshan Ghat (where the Hindus burn their dead) near the bank of the Sutlej River on that grand glorious very hot summer day of 17 August 1988.Mangoes Zia was fond of and that may have been a link to that final solution " Man Goes" ! Anyhow it was a great achievement ! I would say far greater than 9/11, with far lesser human casualties ! One valuable casualty was the US Ambassador , probably Jewish , but in Grand Strategy there are sacrifices and Raphel no doubt was a martyr !
Where is Jihad without Stingers ! Where are the Mujahideen ? The Talibans are motivated but they can snipe against USA without any success for next 100 years unless they find a good foreign patron.Pakistan is a puppy.Taliban need a larger donor.They should borrow a leaf from Afghan NGOs.Find a good donor and then buy a cruising and a nice house in Wazir Akbar Khan ! The Khalqis and Parchamis had an ideology what is the ideology of the Afghan Interim Govt ?

The gist of the strategic-political situation is as following :--

The Taliban or all anti US forces are not a Pakistan specific phenomena but have links with the whole Islamic world.
The present Afghan regime is as potent as Shah Shuja,Karmal or any puppet regime.
The Pakistani military junta is undergoing a crisis of rediscovery and rethinking.
It is not possible to seal the Pak-Afghan border.
The USA is in Afghanistan for at least three to five decades with a precise tangible strategic agenda.Like any regime it will not withdraw until it has made its investment cost effective or unless its strategy leads it to a Clausewitzian culminating point.
Plots like Zalmay assasination attempt etc are just one part of the psy ops war being waged to reduce Pakistan to size.Fair enough since USA has legitimate strategic concerns.
The USA has failed to hit the real centre of gravity of anti US forces which is psychological not physical i.e not Helmand,or Pakistani tribal area etc but ideological.
The USA has so far failed to pump in enough muscle or grey matter in the Afghan Interim regime.It is not even as much as 10 % potent compared to the Najib or even Karmal regime.
The real US targets are not Taliban or Islamists but far larger actors.Central Asia ,China and the Middle East while the Pakistani military junta with its old fashioned nukes is a smaller puppy which can be fixed with one well planned strike from Bagram.No big deal .
The real danger to the USA is a possible combination of anti US forces aided by China and Russia.In Russia the problem is political and Russia needs a new Lenin or a Trotsky to reorganise,otherwise it has the strategic muscle.China is also gearing up but will take another ten years to match USA.This ten year is the critical time span and USA has to fix China by 2015.That is one main reason why it is in Afghanistan.