Pakistan: General Elections in 6-12 Months?

Pakistani veteran politician Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed has predicted fresh general elections in 6-12 months, while talking to Dr. Shahid Masood in a Geo TV program “Meray Mutabiq� (available at http://pkpolitics.com/2008/04/19/meray-mutabiq-19-april-2008/). Sheikh Rasheed has given several reasons in support of his prediction.

I am not a fan of Sheikh Rasheed because of his establishment-friendly and status-quo sort of politics which at the end does not provide any good to people of Pakistan. However his prediction holds true due to various reasons. Although he offers various theories like Nawaz Sharif would like to become prime minister after Pervez Musharraf’s downfall and will break way with Asif Zardari. However you must consider his past and his ties with Pervez Musharaf and Q-League to understand what he wants to achieve. Although his main objective must be to divide the coalition but there are reasons for me to also think likewise.

Soon after the elections the president’s camp was very week. They were wondering how and when the new government will move against them and will remove Pervez Musharaf from office. Because of their weak position they were just playing wait and see and were putting brave face before public. On the other hand the current coalition government has its own problems. Asif Ali Zardari not long ago was considered the most corrupt person in Pakistan’s history and his wife Benazir Bhutto’s government was twice dismissed due to his corruption. Asif Ali Zardari had no role to play in Pakistani politics just before the murder of Benazir Bhutto. Benefited from the Benazir’s murder Mr Zardari was able to claim his hold on PPP and then the party received the sympathy votes to become the largest party in February 2008 general elections. One should not forget that both Benazir and Asif Ali Zardari’s return to Pakistan was due to the highly controversial deal with Pervez Musharaf. Pervez Musharaf offered them to take back all corruption cases pending against them in return for Pervez Musharaf’s acceptance as President. Therefore it was not possible for Asif Ali Zardari to move against Musharaf especially when the current Musharaf installed judiciary was actively working under NRO dismissing cases against him. A very simple question is: Why Zardari will favour those judges who think that constitution and law is supreme and might reopen cases against Zardari after invalidating NRO? Doesn’t that sound a recipe of disaster?

On the other hand the Nawaz Sharif and his party’s stance through out was of anti-establishment, anti-status quo and pro democratic force. They championed the cause of restoring judges and establishing the writ of the constitution. The dramatic increase in their number of seats in national assembly reflected the mood of civil society. Also Nawaz Sharif and his party do not enjoy the same corruption cases which are a hallmark of Mr Zardari’s party. Therefore it will be a political suicide for Nawaz Sharif to break his promise about restoration of judges. As of today the PPP leader has ridiculed the Pakistani nation about his promise of restoration of judges within 30 days. He has shown great resemblance to Pervez Musharaf in this regard. Former has so far broken all of his promised with the nation. It will be a great achievement for Asif Zardari and PPP if they break the promise and keep the coalition intact. Surely there will be damage to PPP image but there will be more damage to PML(N). However if PML(N) gets out of coalition then it will suffer the wrath of establishment and Government but it will survive politically.

Nawaz Sharif and his party may feel betrayed by their coalition partner but they must know that there are no lasting friends. People of Pakistan voted pro-Musharaf forces out on 18th February and they will do it again when provided with a chance. But they will do it for them who weather the test of times.

Indeed there may be new elections very soon, because a government which have lost people’s confidence will find it difficult to overcome the crises which Pakistan today faces.