The Forgotten Economics of SAFTA

#50 SRIDHAR SAHIB

Your enthusiam about India is well founded. It is not in thin air.

If you look at the world, the developed countries have reached a saturation level of development. Their per capita figures speak so. Now, the technoligies are also reaching a plateau. We dont see new products coming up that often as they were coming up in 1970s and 1980s. 1990s were totally driven by Computers. Not much seems to happening as far as new products are concerned. So the future growth is going to come from China and India. The western technology can develop only if it cuts its costs. It can happen only in two ways. One, if the western countries lower their standard of living i.e. accept lesser pay-checks or the technology development is outsourced. Cheap technology is developed and then its fruits can be shared by one and all. India needs the western world for reduction of its poverty and western world needs India for its cheaper labour force. Its not a marraige of convinience,rather it is a do or die for both. So the business and strategic convergence of USA and India is well thought of and practical. USA by keeping India on its side wants to blunt not only China but Europe as well.

Coming to Pakistan, we share a strange love-hate relationship with them. I think Pakistanis are now realising that may be Partition was a mistake..and if not then rivalry with India is definitely a mistake. Whatever Pakistanis may think about us but we know from our hearts that we respect its independence and we respect its religion Islam. What we criticize is certain aspects of both which are detrimental to both of us.

I am quite confident that Pakistan is changing its attitude towards India and we must also change ourselves. We should speak out our hearts to each other and tell that this what we think of you. Now its up to you to change our thinking.

And finally, we should not hide from Kashmir. It is something which is to be resolved. Whether right or wrong, it is one of our international obligations which we have created out of our own foolishness. It is we who have made Pakistan a party to it, we must remember. Therefore, we should discuss with them sincerely, tell them our difficulties, suggest them practical solutions which we can implement. This has to be done at people-to-people level. It is we have to do not the governments because they will never do it.

re:#49 by bolta_aaina
One of the exciting things (at least from an NRIs perspective) that has happened in the last year or so is that India is now seen as forging a stretegic relationship with US, much like the one Turkey has. India`s trade with US was always one sided but now many Indian businessmen are going offshore, buying companies etc etc. This is commendable.
Having said this, i will also say that India can grow and prosper only if her prosperity brings prosperity in the neighbourhood. If India prospers to the detriment of say Pakistan, Pak will continue to play truant and cause trouble for India. Trade is essential to prosper and i hope India will have a booming trade with Pak, Bangladesh much as she has good trade with Srilanka.
Even though i left US many years ago, i keep in touch with India and visit India regularly. So, i am not out of touch with current realities as u seem to think.
Present generation Indians think India is suddenly becoming a developed nation. Far from it. An average American still earns more than 50 times an average Indian. About 200 million Dalits lead wretched lives in India. An additional 200 million live on less than 1 dollar a day. Exciting times are for the middle class, accounting anywhere between 120-200 million. Do your math. India is a long way from becoming a developed nation. One study predicted that if India were to develop at 8% GDP growth, it would take her 20 years to reach the level of Thailand!
Still, i share the enthusiasm. India trying to come out of her poverty with such seriousness is an exciting news indeed.
Sridhar

#46 SRIDHAR SAHIB

How do you I address to you... Look ``Bharat Mata Ki Jai`` is a passe now. India is changing very fast atleast at the mental plane. India-2005 is totally different from India-2003, thoughtwise. Manmohan Singh`s India is totally different from Vajpayee`s India. MS`s India is being more appreciated in being more professional in approach. AB`s India has become a laughing matter particularly Vajpayee`s attitute towards Pakistan and Musharaff like ``Aar-paar ki ladai``, ``Dosti kaa hath``, ``Attot Ang`` etc. etc. The image of Pakistan is also different now what it was during AB`s time. It is being appreciated that Pakistan has done a lot in breaking the back-bone of Jehad in Pakistan--even if under american pressure..no problem.

Most or almost all of Indian Posters in this forum are NRIs(No one posts his comments during Indian daytime). Depending upon when did they leave India, their views express views of those times. Generally, earlyand mid nineties but definitely NOT post 9/11. Post 9/11 and american presence in the region, wot etc. has also changed the perceptions both sides of the border.

It is true that during most of the nineties, Pakistan had monopoly over Indian Phyche. Jehad in Kashmir and their Cricket Team were the major contributors. In 2005, (sadly) Pakistan is a fading star of the Indian mental sky. The IMS is now being totally dominated by USA. The second heavenly body is China which is being looked as future competitor and also because India Inc is inveting heavily in China. The new stars of the horizon are ASEAN countries Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia. This is beacuse of the rising incomes , cheaper air fares and favourable exchange rates, the much coveted ``foreign travel`` is now possible for Indian Middle Class to these countries. Lahore and Karachi are getting replaced by Singapore, Bangkok and Kualalalumpur, again sadly.

So all in all, India-2005 is much more sympathetic and considerate to Pakistan than it was earlier. It wants to resolve all bystanding issues( taking america`s help and influence,of course) with Pakistan and let both countries move ahead.

Nepal, Bangladesh, Srlanka ,Bhutan and Russia are alomst forgotten. It is America and only America now..not even Japan, UK , France or Germany. ``Shining India`` is actually ``Shining America``.

#44 HP

Thanks for your comments. I shall be discussing the issue with you from time to time.

Thanks once again for your clear and impartial views.

``It does not mean that debate does not take place. It does! In the Pakistani society people that matter have strong links with each other and with think-tanks that operate to help the establishment in defining and understanding the issues. Pakistan foreign office has some bright tacticians who work on different options. So a robust debate does take place but it is never thru the media.``

Didn`t know that about Pakistani political system...I might have to rethink at least some of my impressions, in light of this insider`s view.

re:#14 by masadi
Dude,
why don`t u migrateto Cuba, the only surviving communist bastion today?
Sridhar

re: SAFTA is a non-starter
India is busy fencing off its borders with Bangladesh to curb terrorist infiltration from that nation. It already has such a fence in place across LOC in Kashmir with Pakistan.

FTA with Srilanka has benefitted both nations, more so Srilanka.
TATA wants to invest heavily in Bangladesh.
This investment is supposed to correct the trade imbalance that exists with that nation.
article
.
However, this deal has, of late, run into problems. India haters in Bangladesh are calling this deal a sell out. The deal is in limbo and may not take off.
For trade to happen between nations that share borders, peace is essential. Mexico has benefitted immensely from trade with USA. So has Canada. It is a pity that both Pak and Bangladesh are havens for terrorist ideologies that threaten peace and trade.
Sridhar

#42 by bolta_aaina

“will be acceptable to Pakistani general public and establishment? Will they agree for LOC as the permanent border for India/Pak and soft border for Kashmiris?”

The real truth is that a good number of Pakistanis don’t care about Kashmir at all.
But the people that care have a strong lobby in the Pakistani establishment. Mostly these people are Punjabis that moved from east Punjab after the partition and Kashmiris settled in Punjab and some others from the northern Punjab bordering India.

Pakistani establishment considers the Kashmir issue an important part of its foreign policy. Kashmir issue does help them to maintain their control of the country. Let me say this again that the Pak army would keep this issue alive for as long as it can. I hope you follow me when I say that Kashmir would be another Balochistan for the army and they would never accept Kashmir as part of Pakistan contrary to their stated position on this issue. The “Kashmir banega Pakistan” is a slogan for the masses and fellow travelers.

Now, for the meat of your question; Pakistani media has long learnt to follow the army line on this issue and it is in the best interest of everyone to not to cross the army on this issue. It does not mean that debate does not take place. It does! In the Pakistani society people that matter have strong links with each other and with think-tanks that operate to help the establishment in defining and understanding the issues. Pakistan foreign office has some bright tacticians who work on different options. So a robust debate does take place but it is never thru the media.

The Pakistan media or the journalists don’t wanna tread in the murky waters of the Kashmir issue but have no problem using it to whip up anti Indian sentiments in Punjab.

Soft borders or LOC in Kashmir would be acceptable to most of the Pakistanis outside of North-north eastern Punjab. As I understand it, the army floats many options in the Pakistani media to confound and confuse the diehard groups in Punjab and that enables the army to have a sort of room to maneuver in negotiations with India. In the end, the army has to sell soft borders/LOC ideas to its constituency within and outside the army or they will not fly.

Re: # 32

I am afraid it is not. Because, Delhites and Bombayites have accepted themselves to be the part of India but majority of Kashmiris have not. The opinion of Kashmiris is divided amongst joning India, joining Pakistan or becoming independent. We have to accept this bitter truth.

#36 HP

I have gone through the the link and your article on Kashmir.

Looking from here, it seems and looks probably certain that Indian Government/ Establishment does not have any for Kashmir. It just trying to buy time--for what only they know Sometimes some balloons are thrown out through the media followed by contradictory statements by the Govt. The hottest one that a consensus is being reached between India, Pakistan and Kashmiris, with the blessings of the US, that LOC is to be converted into permanent border for India and Pakistan. It will be a soft border for Kashmiris so that they can travel on either side freely. India will give a fair degree of autonomy to its part of Kashmir to the extent that Kashmir may join groups like OIC as a separate entity. Pakistan will also follow suit.

Hurriyat Chairman Mirwaiz Farooq has a floated the idea of United States of Kashmir, which it appears also has the blessings of New Delhi. How I`Bad thinks about it is not very clear. USK is nothing but existence of an autonomous United Kashmir within the soveignty of Pakistan and India. The two Kashmirs would be separate in some sense i.e. may be in their local governance ,and joint in some sense like movement of people, goods and services.

If such an arrangement is proposed before the general Indian Public, it may accept it provided they are assured from Pakistani and Kashmiris as well that by this arrangement ,the thorny issued of Kashmir between Pakistan and India will get resolved for ever and the two countries can then look forward for normalising diplomatic ,trade and cultural relations.

So far, nothing concrete has emerged in Pakistani media that what are the views of GOP and general public regarding this concept of United States of Kashmir? The only thing which is heard from Pak Media is that India is not moving fast in resolving the Kashmir Issue. This creates discontent in Indian public that what are the possible solutions to Kashmir on the table on which any movement can be made. Presently, there are none visible and if some possible solutions have indeed been worked out ,let them come out in the open. The GOI has its standard stand of Atoot Ang, no compromises, maps cannot be redrawn etc. etc. So it all leads to confusion.

Now my question to you is--That as the idea of USK(whatever it may mean in the long run), which is being toyed by a person no less than Hurriyat Conference Chairman who is perhaps the only (Non pro-India) worthwhile Leader left in the valley, will be acceptable to Pakistani general public and establishment? Will they agree for LOC as the permanent border for India/Pak and soft border for Kashmiris?

What do you think?

HP #39
In India a person is literate who has attained skill in reading, writing and comprehending simple text.

Regards,

Faruk

``Take Bombay. What would happen to ``aamchi mumbai`` if the Juhu Beach and Marine Drive get crowded with rich sindhis? ``

aina, aamchi mumbai including the areas you mention is absolutely bustling with rich sindhis. are you for real?

#38

To answer your question: first thing we need is to find out what is the literacy criterion per the Indian census bureau.

I am NOT looking for the meaning of the word ``literacy`` in the dictionary; I am looking for the criteria. Please post that from the Indian census bureau so we can discuss the numbers you posted.

Thanks.

HP #21 “Currently there are gaps developing between the Muslims in India and Pakistan. The pace of Indian Muslims’ intellectual development is much slower than Pakistan/BD Muslims.”

The literacy rate for Indian Muslims is 59% (2001 Census, should be higher now) Pakistan’s literacy rate is 54% (2004) was lower in 2001. Bangladesh’s literacy rate is 43%. So how is the pace of Indian Muslims’ intellectual development is much slower than Pakistan/BD Muslims.

Regards,

Faruk

Bolta-Aina , I said on some other board that with due respect , you are an idiot. People of India won`t even give away Siachen inspite of the great cost involved. If you think we are going to tolerate losing any control over Kashmir - you are seriously deluded. For India , Kashmir problem is already solved. We got what we want. As long as the land remains with us , there is no problem. But we dont mind wasting time talking about it - all the CBMs , P-to-P and stuff.

#28 by bolta_aaina

Discussion abt Kashmir belongs to another thread “Voyage to the Valley by
Divya Rajagopal” in the Journey section. Please see my reponse on that thread.