The Forgotten Economics of SAFTA

Further to Post#2, talking about SAFTA is opening the lock of the gate of Reunification. Are we ready for that or is it acceptable to us in the ultimate?? Because when people, goods and services start moving freely then this question is difinitely going to arise in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh? We cant run from this reality. This issue will have to be discussed openly along with the peoples.

All these issues are to be deliberated and sorted out only then we can talk on economics and trade.

As far as trade and business is concerned, we should not worry too much. The people of the subcontinent have centuries of trade experience. It is not going to happen in the long run that one group will lead and others will suffer.

But the social cost can be tremedous of which we dont have any idea what it may be ?

My opinion on the subject is that a free trade agreement in the subcontinent will not be without a huge social and cultural cost to the smaller countries. We have to accept it first.

If we look at the demography, Hindus and Muslims will be the two most dominant groups. Hindus concentrated in India. Muslims concentrated in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Here we have to keep one thing in mind is that the spritual and cultural seats of both Hindus and Muslims lie in the mainland India only. Indo-islam does not have any seat in Pakistan or Bangladesh. This would tremendously affect the societies of Pakistan and Bangladesh that more and more common people will look towards Indian mainland as their materialistic and spritual destination. This would definitely spark anti-India feelings in Pakistan and Bangladesh. SO HOW FAR WE ARE GOING TO ACCEPT THIS SOCIAL CHANGE NEEDS TO BE DELIBERATED AND DISCUSSED. It should not happen that when Bollywood(which is not Indian but actually Hindu+Muslim Cultural Entity) starts ruling the minds of the people and then there is a hue and cry. The social and cultural impact of SAFTA will be so much so much on Pakistan and Bangladesh that they may be in the danger of losing their identities in the eyes of themselves as well as the world. We have to keep this mind.

As for India, when Hindus and Muslims of the subcontinent in their gigantic numbers come closer, there would definitely be an uneasiness amongst other minorities. How would India cope up with that? What would the Sikhs feel?

I feel before there can be any meaningful talk on SAFTA, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh should ponder carefully how much impact of SAFTA can they take on their societies. Otherwise, SAFTA will prove to be a disaster.

I would request the author to elaborate how these matters are going to be tackled before the economies are integrated together.

It`s not hard to estimate the beenfits of free trade..if you include afghanistan in it Pakistan is naturally suited to be a trade hub. The old stat was $3b of indirect trade between Pakistan and India..and I am sure if you add in trade done through places like Malaysia and UAE it would be a lot higher..similarly Pak-Afghan trade if liberalsied would be in the billions as well..