The Uncertain Future of India-Pakistan-Iran Pipeline

````Why is it that our planes crash, our buildings collapse at the slightest tremor, our cars burst into flames, we don`t have even a half-standard football stadium in the entire country, but when it comes to nuclear energy, it`s a national issue?!... `` (An Iranian blogger on an Iranian web site)

.......could be a Pakistani blogger on a Pakistai site or an Indian blogger on an Indian site....

#62 by nasah on February 3, 2006 11:33am PT

China Leaps Forward
The people`s republic is embarking on the world`s biggest nuclear building spree.

what caused bigger environmental damage: Exxon-Valdez or Three Mile Island..

what`s causes more pollution: The oil tanker traffic in the gulf or the nuclear industry?

#62 by nasah on February 3, 2006 11:33am PT


now the thorium reactors -- currently no sensible mind can envision a day when a country all energy requirements will be met by nuclear power plants


Pray tell: why?


Talking of such esoteric concepts like the thorium nuclear plants for future energy needs of 1 billion Indians


If you expect the current supply of oil to be available to 1 billion Indians and 1.3 billion Chinese at a reasonable price, you`re dumber than Amhedinejad..


with the help of that shifty lyin cheatin Uncle George and his Congress of blackmailers.


That`s the whole point of the FB reactors...Throrium is available in India..a lot of it..

now the thorium reactors -- currently no sensible mind can envision a day when a country all energy requirements will be met by nuclear power plants -- I think it is as absurd as the claim by intellects like Ahmednejad that Holocaust never happened.

Talking of such esoteric concepts like the thorium nuclear plants for future energy needs of 1 billion Indians reminds me of my travel on the road between Agra and Jaipur....

its a 200 hundred Kilometer two lane `Highway` -- the `main artery` of India most traveled tourist road.

What we found that around 40 kilometer of that road was washed away LAST year `heavy monsoon` -- making it a one lane highway with pot holes as big as the craters on the moon -- looked the Americans had just bombed the place with the Moabs....

it took us 7 hours traveling mostly on shoulders of the road some times in the fields below the road -- at crawling speed -- to reach Jaipur at the dead of the night with no repair crew in sight in the day time anywhere on that stretch of the battered maddening road -- the traffic stopping at every few miles to allow (gracious Indians) one side to negotiate the one lane -- before other side could do the same...

There were instances of head-on collision avoided only by hair breadth.....

When I asked in the hotel lobby to a state functionary -- don`t the Desi feel any shame showing the foreign tourist the battered `one lane highway` before showing the grandeur of Indian Maharajas and the splendors of Indian Moguls....

no sir -- we have not done much on that road because we are planning to build a SIX lane highway between Jaipur and Agra starting next year in its place -- as soon as all the court cases are settled for lands along that highway....

Kaun jeeta hai teri zulf kay sur honay tuk -- till then how about putting the other half of the goddam lane along that bombed out 40 kilometers....stretch..for crying out loud...

this is the same goddam thing happening with India-Pakistan-Iran pipeline.....all that stinking gas business can go to hell because we are about to nuclearize the whole goddam country.....with the help of that shifty lyin cheatin Uncle George and his Congress of blackmailers.....

Priorities....priorities....priorities....a Himalaya of F’cked up priorities……that’s what India is….even in the hands of these shameful Unprogressives of the United Progressive Alliance walas….

to complete my last sentence in #60: ``...and nuclear power, given its great environmental risks made apparent by chernobyl and three mile island, is not considered by these ``path breaking`` nations at least, to be one of these environment-friendly fuels of the future.

dost mittar: i think that you and i will still be around to see alternative, environment friendly fuels become a reality. While Iranian mullahs are clamoring for their ``right to nuclear power``, the fact is that the path-breaking nations of the world (which remain the US, europe and japan) are in fact headed in a different direction, namely that of environment friendly fuels.

There is an increasing urgency to environmental issues, given that reality of the long-predicted global warming is already upon us. Windmills are already providing a significant share of power capacity in places like Denmark and Germany and the US. And there are a host of other ways of course.

DM Sahib,
I support the pipeline project. This investment will make Pakistan crucial to India`s strategic interests. Who knows? One day, a determined India could take over all of Pakistan in the name of national security - thus saving many Pakis from their current misfortunes. God works in strange ways. :)

re: Thorium reactors
DMji,
Please go to this link (In 2002 the regulatory authority issued approval to start construction of a 500 MW prototype fast breeder reactor at Kalpakkam and this is now under construction by BHAVINI. The unit is expected to be operating in 2010, fuelled with uranium-plutonium oxide (the reactor-grade Pu being from its existing PHWRs) and with a thorium blanket to breed fissile U-233. This will take India`s ambitious thorium program to stage 2, and set the scene for eventual full utilisation of the country`s abundant thorium to fuel reactors. Four more such fast reactors have been announced for construction by 2020.

Initial FBRs will be have mixed oxide fuel but these will be followed by metallic-fuelled ones to enable shorter doubling time.)
Also, see the following link:
India unveils ATBR (Designed by scientists of the Mumbai-based Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, the ATBR is claimed to be far more economical and safer than any power reactor in the world.

Most significantly for India, ATBR does not require natural or enriched uranium which the country is finding difficult to import. It uses thorium -- which India has in plenty -- and only requires plutonium as `seed` to ignite the reactor core initially.

Eventually, the ATBR can run entirely with thorium and fissile uranium-233 bred inside the reactor..)
It remains to be seen if the design can be put to practical use.
Sridhar

re:#55 by dost-mittar
Dost Mitterji,
The Oil pipeline, even if it were to become a reality, would pass through Balochistan which is at present going thr` an insurgency. Since the transit fee will go to Pakistan and would not benefit the tribals of Balochistan in anyway, i foresee a lot of problems. Tribals opposed to the deal may simply blow the pipeline and stop the gas from flowing! That is easy given the terrain.
Also, Pak is still India`s enemy. would India be willing to trust Pak to ensure a continuous gas supply? Would not India be giving Pak a major leverage to exploit and browbeat India when it suits the country?
Sridhar

re:#52 by dost-mittar on February 3, 2006 7:29am PT
rsridhar#35:

(I have been reading about the ``Thorium breakthrough`` for as long as I can remember. Until that dream becomes reality, India would have to be dependent upon Uranium...)
Funny u say so because the BARC scientists only very recently presented a paper in an international seminar where they presented a design of FBR utilising thorium.
So, perhaps it is now becoming a reality.
If India lacks the technology, all the more reason for India to collaborate with US that has the technology or the scientific expertise.
What has iran got to offer? It is all Gas (no pun intended!).
Sridhar

anil#43:

If this pipeline gets built, it would be by a private consortium. Part of the US opposition to this pipeline is that the US businesses cannot bid for it due to the US restrictions on investment in Iran. The plan seems to be that each country would be responsible for constructing pipeline through its territory, this is perhaps why Ambanis are perhaps the most enthusiastic supporters of this project. However, the issue of security will not be resolved by private participation; people who want to sabotage would probably have an added incentive if it hurts western interests.

ranjit:44
Interesting analysis. India already depends upon Saudis for a substantial part of her oil needs and her cosying up to them to compensate for potential loss of Iranian source makes sense.

If there is a turmoil in Iran due to external attacks or domestic opposition, I doubt that Pakistan would be in a position to fish too much in the troubled waters. It can only do so through Balochistan where it is facing problems itself. However, Iranian Balochs are sunni and not too happy with the shia rulers and may want to make a common cause with their southern counterparts in case of domestic strife.

ranjit, burpinder:
Despite Ahmednihad`s ``Aa bail mujhe maar`` attitude, I do not think that Iran is going to become Iraq anytime soon. Unlike Iraq, Bush is careful not to talk of military action, except saying that that option is not ``off-the-table``. Even Israel does not have too many long-range airplanes to keep sustained air-attacks. And sustained attacks would be required as Iranians have hidden their nuclear assets at several locations. After the first attack, the surprise element would be gone and the attacker would have to destroy Iran`s radar and defense apparatus for successful offensive. In the meantime, the Muslim world would be up enflamed even more.

#52 by dost-mittar on February 3, 2006 7:29am PT


I have been reading about the ``Thorium breakthrough`` for as long as I can remember.


And i`ve been hearing about how a pipeline through Pakiland can bring Indo-Pak peace and brotherhood for as long as I can remember..

The fast breeder is more likely to materialize than the whole India-Pak thing..

in any case, please tell us why the IPI pipeline will be any more secure than the paki pipelines running through balochistan which get blown up daily..

bjkumar#36, 48:

Happy New Year to you too!

You have made some interesting comments. Yes, the future world demand for energy will be driven more by the emerging economies, esp. China and India than of the developed world. This is for two reasons - one is the explosive demand for energy by both consumers and industries in these countries and secondly because the developed countries are taking more proactive measures to use energy more efficiently - witness the incentive programs for improved insulation, more efficient light bulbs, energy ratings of appliances, hybrid vehicles and the Kyoto accord which has not been signed by either China or India, Indians even waste more water with every flushing of their toilets than their western counterparts. The West`s unwillingness to share new technology with emerging economies is also a problem.

I also agree with you regarding the positive effect of this nuclear deal with the US on curbing the nuclear weapons race on the subcontinent. Another positive spin-off that I see is that the safety issues of India`s nuclear reactors under international inspection will become more transparent. From time to time, one reads alarming reports about radiation leakages from Indian nuclear reactors. This may be one of the reasons why Indian nuclear scientists incharge of these reactors are against the proposed deal. Bringing them under IAEA regime would ensure that they meet the stringent international safety standards and prevent potential Chernobyls in India.

pmishra#37:
Since when have we set Saudi Arabia as a benchmark for religious tolerance? And why is not visiting Rajghat an insult to India or even Gandhi? They don`t visit the grave of even their Prohet whom they revere the most.

ahmedmadani#40:
Thanks for pointing out to some pertinent issues of pricing and Iranian compulsions to sell their gas. I do not think that the pricing issue would be critical in the final analysis. If Iranian gas is cheaper than the alternative sources available to India or Pakistan and if the best price Iran can get for its gas is from these two countries, then the two sides will eventually come to a negotiated solution.

nasah#various:

Bhaijaan, you are right that India is moving away from Iran only because of the US pressure, though not necessarily because of the Mulford opening his mouth too widely. I am sure Nicholas Burn had made the same point in his various meetings with Shyam Saran and other interlocutors and Indians knew what had to be done, Mulford only made Manmohan Singh`s job more difficult.

I think that India needs both the nuclear deal and, in the long-run, natural gas from Iran and/or Bangladesh. The deal is needed because without it, India will run out of supplies for even some of its existing nuclear plants. And the way Iran is going, it may not be a dependable source anyway if sanctions are imposed on it.

rsridhar#35:

I have been reading about the ``Thorium breakthrough`` for as long as I can remember. Until that dream becomes reality, India would have to be dependent upon Uranium. But dont you worry, we Canadians have a lot to spare. :)

#50 by nasah on February 3, 2006 6:09am PT

Pakistan is an enemy country..A pipeline through Pakistan is a bad idea..even if the gas originated in Afghanistan..