Rethinking Foreign Policy -- Can Pakistan and India Agree?

Ho-hum...Paki government gets busted lying to it`s own people..Unfortunately for the deluded pakis, reality is a female of the canine species..

Economic growth figures revised downwards

By Khaleeq Kiani

ISLAMABAD, March 12: The government has significantly lowered economic growth forecasts made in the annual plan of the federal budget for 2005-06 because of lower than expected growth in agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

Subsequently, the government had revised the estimated GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate down to 6.2-6.4 per cent during 2005-06, instead of the budgetary target of seven per cent, a senior government official told Dawn.

A few days ago, the revised estimates was approved by the National Economic Council under the prime minister on the basis of mid-year review by relevant government agencies. The official said that the final growth rate might be even lower. Services sector is the only major segment of national economy that is likely to meet its budgetary target of 6.8 per cent.

The annual plan had forecast the GDP growth at 7 per cent by projecting 4.8 per cent growth in agriculture, 9.5 per cent in industrial manufacturing and 6.8 per cent in services sectors. However, the agriculture sector’s growth estimate has now been revised to 3 per cent while the estimate for industrial sector’s growth has been put at 9.0 per cent.

ADB says most FBS data unreliable

Staff Report

ISLAMABAD: Most economic data compiled by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) is not reliable and there is a need to make the data based on facts so that the future line of action could be drawn more realistically, said the Asian Development Bank (ADB) here on Monday.

``The economic data of FBS is, often, not based on facts. It is often contradicted by senior officers of the government,`` said ADB official Ghulam Qadir while replying to a question at a briefing in the presence of the ADB country director Peter L. Fedon.
He said the FBS had given data recently that had suggested that the country`s exports were growing by 28 percent. While the fact was that Pakistan`s exports were growing at around 13 percent in the first six months of the current financial year, he said.

Inflation exceeds budget target

By Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD, March 5: There has been a decline in foreign exchange reserves, a fall in large-scale manufacturing and the core inflation crossed 11 per cent during the first six months of the current fiscal year, while trade and current account deficits have surged by more than 100 per cent, according to the finance ministry.

Ref Ramanujan #133

[I have a better idea. Let`s give them the part of Jammu and Kashmir under out control, and just as a gesture from a big brother, let`s give them Punjab, Rajasthan, and one other state of their choice - they get to pick.]

Nope, we get to pick. Waste Bengal. Let them deal with the Bengalis once again!

Re: # 141

KSE loses 379

KSE sheds 379 as bears take over market in Pakistan -
`Pakistan Times` Business Desk

KARACHI: The Karachi Stock Market on Monday remained in stiff grip of bearish trend despite signing of the PTCL deal with Etisalat and announcement of final results with regard to discovery of oil and gas in Manzlai situated in Tul Block of NWFP province.

With the lazy business trend in the market, the 100-index closed at 10095, down 379 points.

The trading in the KSE began with rise of 141 points which went up further 10 174 points thanks to trading in Oil Fields, PPL, OGDC and Textile sectors.•

#143 by iron_mask on March 14, 2006 3:21am PT


Pakistan on the other hand wanted it as soon as they heard India would get it.


Then they were slapped down by Dubya and they told us they never really wanted the deal anyway..just like the inbred retard telling us PAkiland has a piddly 40mill$ in IT exports because Pakiland never really wanted to get into IT..or manto telling us, basically, the pakis don`t make engines in pakiland because they don`t want to..

hmm...i see a pattern..

Trade gap widens to $7.4bn in 8 months

The other reasons for surge in imports this year was massive tariff rationalization on machinery, raw materials, used vehicles and consumer goods, which encouraged import of these products thus putting more pressure on the foreign exchange reserves of the country.

Re: # 140


Trade deficit rises to $936 million in February


Trade deficit rises to $936 million in February


ISLAMABAD: (updated on: March 14, 2006, 16:45 PST): Pakistan`s trade deficit widened to a provisional $936 million in February from $916 billion in January, and $617 million in February 2005, official data showed on Tuesday.

The cumulative trade deficit for the July-February period was $7.43 billion against $3.47 billion a year earlier, the data from the Federal Bureau of Statistics showed.

In the 2004/05 fiscal year (July-June), Pakistan`s trade deficit was $6.213 billion, almost double the $3.278 billion posted in the preceding fiscal year.

Analysts said the full-year trade gap was likely to end up around $10-11 billion, given the rising oil bill and increasing machinery imports.

``The rise in machinery imports is due to the liberal import policies of the government and growing local industry,`` said Mohammed Sohail, director research at brokers Jahangir Siddiqui Capital Markets.

``But the government is yet to control the oil import bill because of the high global prices. The oil import bill alone is likely to cross $6 billion this year,`` he said.

The data showed exports rose to $1.27 billion in February from $1.23 billion in January and were up 9.3 percent from the February 2005 figure of $1.16 billion.

Imports increased to a $2.21 billion in February from $2.14 billion in January and were up 24 percent from the February 2005 figure of $1.79 billion.

Sohail said the government should be able to finance the rising trade deficit comfortably this year, but could face problems in 2006/07 (July-June) fiscal year.

Pakistan plans to dip into international capital markets for funds before the end of June.

Roadshows for a eurobond issue are expected to begin by the end of this month. The government has mandated Citigroup. Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan to handle the issue.

Pakistan also plans to issue global depository receipts (GDRs) for the Oil and Gas Development Co. Ltd., the country`s largest listed firm.

``The government should not face any problem this year to finance the deficit due to a combination of inflows from the planned eurobond and GDR issues, as well as privatisation proceeds,`` he said.




Copyright Reuters, 2006

Re: # 140

State of the economy


A deficit of 4.5 percent of GDP in current account means that the country is living much beyond its resources and the gap has to be filled by external borrowings. The investment flows from the IFIs to which Salman Shah alluded in his presentation are not some kind of outright grants but would create additional external liabilities with the known adverse consequences. Privatisation proceeds to bolster foreign exchange reserves is also a one-off phenomenon.

The government has so far failed to put together any form of a realistic plan to bridge the huge increasing gap between exports and imports of the country. In the absence of both short and long-term corrective policy measures, the twin deficits in the external sector and the budget may soon reach unsustainable levels.

#150 by iron_mask on March 14, 2006 4:01am PT

sheesh...you don`t get it do you? A high trade deficit/inflation was part of the plan and Pakiland has met it`s financial goals(even if they had to import used cars and pass it off as capital goods(machinery)....

WTF are you? a non-prophet tahmed certified indian? a hateful hindoo?

banking sector news (Manto`s fav example) - god I am becoming like the fav guy on chowk (we all know who it is) thank you manto for pushing me!

High budget deficit prompts excessive borrowing

High budget deficit prompts excessive borrowing
M ISRAR KHAN
ISLAMABAD (March 14 2006): The soaring budget deficit has forced the government to excessive borrowing from the banking system, surpassing the annual limit by 49.21 percent, which in turn would increase inflation, the State Bank of Pakistan reported on Monday.

Economists believe that the increasing trend of government borrowing from the central and scheduled banks would hurt its efforts to tame the soaring inflation.

The State Bank (SBP data) showed that the government`s net borrowing for budgetary support from banks (scheduled and central bank) from July 1 2005 to February 25, 2006, stood at 147.21 billion, consuming 50.21 percent (Rs 49.21 billion) more than the target of Rs 98 billion for 2005-06.

During the first half (July-December) of the current fiscal year, the federal government suffered a budget deficit of Rs 136.684 billion.

According to the State Bank data, the government`s borrowing from local banking system (a major source of domestic financing) showed a steep rise. The data showed that government borrowing from the central bank was also on the rise, while decline was noticed in case of scheduled banks.

It highlighted that the government had borrowed about 29 times more (Rs 147.21 billion) from the central and commercial banks than what it borrowed in the corresponding period of last year, which was Rs 5.016 billion.

Economic experts believe that the rising budget deficit could further increase debt burden. They say that if the current rising trend persists, by end this fiscal the budget deficit may surpass the target of 4 percent of GDP.

According to the data, the central government`s net borrowing rose to Rs 128.392 billion between July 1, 2005 and February 25, 2006, from Rs 9.917 billion, which it retired in the corresponding period of last year.

The provincial governments` borrowing also increased to Rs 18.818 billion as it was Rs 14.934 billion during the corresponding period last year. Thus on balance, the overall government borrowing for budgetary support stood at Rs 147.21 billion during this period.

The central government borrowed Rs 161.79 billion from SBP as against Rs 138.774 billion of last year. However, it retired Rs 33.398 billion earlier borrowed from the scheduled banks.

The bank further said that provincial governments during the period borrowed Rs 16.437 billion from the central bank against the amount of Rs 16.256 billion during corresponding period last fiscal.

However, borrowing pattern of the provincial governments from scheduled banks breached the stagnant trend, which for the last few months stood at Rs 612 million.

This time it jumped to Rs 2.381 billion which shows that they have again started borrowing from these banks. During the same period of last fiscal year they had retired Rs 1.322 billion debt of scheduled banks.


Copyright Business Recorder, 2006

#151 = neither arjun_m but one who would like to wake up everyday and smell the fresh coffee being made in the kitchen (hey its on a self-timer!). Hate blocked sinuses - they distort the world.

actually all of this is government propaganda to hood wink the indians and make them complacent. I am a believer. (now that is not an original line - its from a song - let me come clean here before Miss Erudite starts complaining about lack of originality and plagiarism (T)

actually all of this is government propaganda to hood wink the indians and make them complacent. I am a believer. (now that is not an original line - its from a song - let me come clean here before Miss Erudite starts complaining about lack of originality and plagiarism (T)

#154 by iron_mask on March 14, 2006 4:12am PT

Remember this joke of a piece that manto posted more than a year ago..pakis were out dancing in the streets celebrating their imminent rise as an IT exporting country..

I remember some paki acquaintances tell me, in the late 90s, that Pakiland was building IT parks too and Pakiland would be giving India a run for it`s IT money...that was then...6-7 years later Pakiland is stuck at 40million$/yr while India should do close to 20billion comfortably..

Shahid Javed Burki was one of Capt Clueless` favorite writers before he blasphemed against paki self-delusions..then capt clueless pulled his name from his profile page..

In the wake of Bush’s visit

By Shahid Javed Burki

During this brief visit, President Bush went to four cities, one each in Afghanistan and Pakistan and two in India. He went Kabul and Rawalpindi-Islamabad as a war president meeting his soldiers in Afghanistan and the soldier-president in Pakistan. He went to Delhi and Hyderabad in India as the leader of the world’s largest economy which was at the frontline of creating a new global economic order. He talked of war and military action in Afghanistan and Pakistan but economic and human development in India. While talking about war, he seemed more comfortable in Kabul, a willing and enthusiastic ally, than in Islamabad, a somewhat sullen and increasingly disenchanted partner.

In this process, President Bush left behind a greatly uncomfortable Pakistan. This was the first time he was visiting this part of the world. While his impressions about India were formed by the contacts he had with the members of that country’s diaspora in Texas, his impression about Pakistan was limited to his dealings with President Pervez Musharraf. Both impressions were highly positive in the sense that he was impressed with the people of Indian origin living and working in the state of Texas and he was comfortable in his dealings with the Pakistani president. These impressions became the basis of his approach towards the two countries of the South Asian subcontinent. He talked to the Indian people in India but only to the Pakistani president in Pakistan.

He was impressed with the levels of skills, dexterity and enterprise the Indians possessed. He believed that such a population would not only help the country to which they belonged and make it possible for it to climb to great heights. He was also convinced that the Indians could contribute massively to global prosperity and peace. He saw this kind of Indian in the various audiences he addressed in Delhi and Hyderabad. The only “common people” he came face to face in Pakistan were a bunch of cricketers; he was kept safely away from the rest of the population.

With President Musharraf, George Bush has developed a relationship of trust. Here was a man who had risked his life to join America’s war on terrorism. If his resolve was weakening, as was sometimes suggested by some of his advisors and some parts of the American press, it was not because the Pakistani president was being devious and was playing tricks. It was because he had to take into account his own internal compulsions. President Bush understood his mission to Islamabad as a part of the American effort to get Pakistan and its leader even more committed to the fight against terrorism.

These impressions were reinforced by the senior members of corporate America with whom President Bush and his administration are always in close touch. They saw enormous opportunities in India but only visible as well as hidden dangers in Pakistan. I don’t think political analysts based in Pakistan have fully comprehended the enormous influence of corporate America on public policymaking in the United States. India Inc., the term which is used to identify the corporate leaders of Indian origin in the United States, have cultivated very close relations with their American-born counterparts. They are at the forefront of the current Washington effort to assign India a role in the American administration’s vision of a new world order. No such corporate constituency exists for Pakistan.

During President Bush’s visit to South Asia, America’s task in India, therefore, was to help that country become an even more effective player in the global economy, the global political system and the global society. Having already invested heavily in the country, the American corporations want India to become a part of the global production system. This involves not only the IT sector and that of heath sciences. It also includes industries such as automobiles, steel, chemicals, oil and gas. To take only one example, Indian exports of automobile parts in 2006 are likely to exceed $1 billion.

Corporate America does not have significant investments in Pakistan — and consequently no such interest — in the country other than putting a lid on Islamic terrorism which threatens economic activity in the important Middle East region and South Asia. With this as the background it should be easy to understand why President Bush took such different positions in India and Pakistan. In Pakistan he understood his task to help Islamabad contain the menace posed by the rise of Islamic extremism, in India he wished to help the country move to the front of the global economic system.

Having dealt with the subject of first impressions and their impact on public policy in the first article, I had planned to write one more piece about the overall impact of the visit on South Asia — on Pakistan in particular. However, given the way the visit took place; what was said in the countries visited; how the American president was received in the four cities to which he went; and the reactions in the countries that received the president, it appears I will need more space. I will continue with the subject next week.

What did President George Bush leave behind after his four day visit to South Asia? This was the second presidential visit in five years. On the previous occasion not much was expected in Pakistan from President Bill Clinton. At that time, the West was not happy with General Musharraf; he was generally regarded as a military usurper who had set back by years — if not by decades — Pakistan’s political development.

India, of course, was different. The Americans saw it as the world’s largest democracy managed with the same kind of chaos and panache with which they ran their own government. The American corporations, after having gone to China, had begun to discover India. In discovering it they found the two giants to be very different. China offered a workplace where a disciplined labour force could efficiently produce the goods needed by the American consumers and parts and the components required by the American manufacturers. India was different.

Whereas China had the industrial muscle, India had the brains; China produced the machines that worked in its factories to produce all kinds of products for export, India first developed and then deployed brains to produce softwares that made the machines and the factories work. Pakistan was nowhere to be found in this new order of industrial and service production.

#140 by anil

If Zeemax can tell us more about who were the senders of $14-billion dollars in two months?

Did I mention `reverse capital flight`?

Rgds

Iron mask

Refer to 52.

Re: # 158
yes! I did glug that heineken (sp???) but the numbness was illusory!

Manto you need to have the same occasionally....nevermind you get stronger stuff in lahore(T)