India-Pakistan talks: the endless cycle

Re: # 160

Harimau,

Vintage stuff ... enjoyed it. By the way, I think the Army should be limited to newspaper, don`t you? Otherwise who knows what other means they would use in the future? By the way, since when has RAND become the benchmark for predictions?

Zeemax:

Sometime back I had asserted that the Lebanese would go after the Hizb. Of course, strictly speaking, I was wrong. But are you keeping up with the news? It seems that the Sunni elites are after the Hizb. What say you?

#161 by GT

By the way, since when has RAND become the benchmark for predictions?

GT, if people can conjure up predictions while sitting idly in their bathrooms, I`m sure RAND eminently qualifies to become the benchmark for predictions. At least, there is an analysis and method to their predictions.

#160 by harimau

I don`t see how you say that Hu Jintao & Company are trying to wriggle out of their claim over Arunachal Pradesh, when days before Hu`s visit the Chinese ambasador categorically states without even the niceties of diplomacy that it belongs to China. China gave up its claim over Sikkim, but has reiterated the same in case of Arunachal Pradesh. So that`s the chinese way of making it clear to India that trade may grow, but territorial issues remain.

As for trade, the Chinese strategy is to form strong links with niche producers of fossil fuels and minerals to ensure uninterrupted supplies to feed their growth. They don`t care much about whom they can sell their dvd players to, because the world including India snaps these up anyway, but rather who can sell them the vital natural resources they don`t have - rather than all being gobbled up by G7 from producers under their political influence. For this reason, they have cultivated Iran and Sudan for Oil, India for iron ore, and CARs for gas, while they are building Pakistan`s Gwadar port solely as the clearing house for all these pipelines and tankers (and not for any other commercial activities).

It is quite naive to say that China would be worried about $20 billion in trade going up in smoke. With $1 trillion in FX reserves ($1.2 trillion if you add Hong Kong), and a virtually slave market in the wealthiest countries of the world - 20, 50 or even a hundred billion doesn`t make a dent. They`re entering niche markets for political influence alone.

That is the great game being played. Whoever between China and the West has control of uninterrupted natural resources, wins down the road. The loser gets nothing.

#161 by GT

It seems that the Sunni elites are after the Hizb...

This was to be expected. In fact Saudia was the first to criticise Hazb in this summer`s war, and now some others have joined in. I think this is precipitated because of the shift in US policy from `staying the course` to `getting off without being trampled` in ME and Afghanistan. Once this happens, Northern Afghanistan and most of Iraq will become Iranian surrogates, while Lebanon will again become a Syrian satellite. In these events the Sunni power brokers as well as global Jihadis will have to be content with just Southern Afghanistan as their sandbox. Therefore attempts to discredit Hazb - the main vehicle for expansion of Iranian influence.

#162 by harish_hyd

I`m sure RAND eminently qualifies ... an analysis and method to their predictions.

And, pray, what that method might be?

#162 by harish_hyd

And, pray, what that method might be?

Do you really want me to answer that or are you being rhetorical?

....contd... #163

The list of members/observers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) should be quite an eye-opener:

Members: China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan.

Observers: India, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan.

#166 by harish_hyd

Nope I`m being serious.

#168 by zeemax

Nope I`m being serious.

You will find more info here than I could ever write up here:

http://www.rand.org/standards/standards_general.html

#163 by zeemax

[That is the great game being played. Whoever between China and the West has control of uninterrupted natural resources, wins down the road. The loser gets nothing.]

Yup. Pakistan`s good friend may or may not win. But India will surely lose.

Read and weep, you Hindoos from India. You lose. It`s a fact, like it or not. Ha!

Zeemax,

The prices of most commodities are at record high levels no doubt but these are normal business cyclical highs and although it seems counter-intuitive, the prices of commodities would fall again (now I dont know when, if I could I wouldn`t waste my time sitting on chowk) at some point of time.

So, take it from me that control of natural resources would achieve nothing and that most countries would be well-advised to invest in human resources/technology than waste time and money in buying (commodity related) assets (such as oil fields, iron mines) at inflated prices.

Regards

#171 by majumdar

Majumdar,

It`s not about price. It`s about supplies - at ANY price. You can`t manufacture Iron Ore and there`s no substitute for hydrocarbons. Without either of these, the industrial revolution is dead!

#169 by harish_hyd

Thanks. I can`t find that report about the Pak prediction. Do you know which one is it?

#170 by krishna_abcd

I never said that! If your friend wins, you win too. But that doesn`t seem so likely the way things are going. Does it?

#173 by zeemax

I can`t find that report about the Pak prediction. Do you know which one is it?

If my memory serves me right, I don`t think it was RAND that made the Pak prediction; it was the CIA, but I could be wrong.

Re: # 163

Zeemax sahib:

``....So that`s the chinese way of making it clear to India that trade may grow, but territorial issues remain....``

This is very profound statement, that Pakistani leaders can also say, so that everyone can win. Free-trade between India and China will create world`s largest market for posterity, as it will put 40% of humanity in it. No matter how you slice and dice it, you will find most consumption and most production of both goods and services.

No one wonder both want to cooperate even on nuclear energy too. Their economic growth rates are capable of producing such a market, which will need energy that could suck Arabian oil fields dry in ten times faster than the U.S. can empty it. Alternative to hydro-carbons is crucial.

Can you live in CO2 greenhouse, when these economies use hydro carbons? The trade-off of making nuclear fission energy safer will be where R&D wiil go. Cold fusion is not possible so far. If the world has to have equitable growth and allow Asia to create a dominant market, alternative to hydro carbon is so essential.

Anil