Truth Behind US-India Nuclear Deal

#46

d-m, watch out there are some changes in canadian tax laws that will affect these trusts in the future. They are called ``oil and gas royalty trusts``.

Wow, Madani saheb!

I don`t follow stock market any longer but from what I read, natural gas stocks are still quite high in Canada. This is because the demand for natural gas in North America is still quite high.

I used to follow Precision Drilling at one point and it is certainly the best stock of its type in Canada.

Re: # 22
DM ji you asked for suggestion. Now there is saying in Arabic a Shepard should not try to shepherd while sitting on camel. But if somebody asks it ispolite to say no as being ignorant. So will try my best. You have commie govt in Canada as they say here that becomes hard as then you need only Canadian companies.
I have little experience in such matter. My daughters husband thinks he is smart and he lost huge pile of money and my daughter complained to me about that. She told him to consult me but he had little “attitude” problem, she was irate. I asked to forgive him and ask me . So I methodically studied and found markets are very efficient and not easy to find easy pickings. He was not smart in such matters but I can not tell my daughter. He believed in High Tech. Now I told them you do not make money in high tech but in low tech or no tech. I found several sectors which can give better returns.
Now related to low or no tech is oil and natural gas and coal. And presently extreme good situation exists in canadin things. It is so good asked my daughter to buy Canadian stocks on NYSE and she is getting better results every month. Presently gas prices have bottomed in short term ( my short term means atleast 4.5 years, 4.5 has meaning but will not explain now, people who understand probability, some thing related to markov chains if explained can understand, if interested study stock charts in terms of 4.5 years cycle, gas and coal) one can do extremely good. If capital gains reach 4.5 years worth dividend one should sell and pay taxes happily. The selection of equities specially selected are such that dividends are enormous.
First drilling company of Canada giant. Precision drilling , presently they are closing many drilling sites and so price is lower range in local sense
Second is metallurgical coal majority used in production of steel , steel may be overproduced and prices are hard to raise so met coal is less demad stock is down
All others are gas and oil ( small part) producers of Canada.
Most pay monthly dividends so its good cash flow.
Names are from americal EXCHANGES. Symbol and div yields.
My feeling is wthin 4 to 5 years prices of gas and oil will jump to recent highs and capitals gains will be enormous combined with stream of dividends.
All Canadians for Dmji appraisal
Symbol % yield
PDS (13.2) Drilling
FDG (12.8) Met coal mining
AAV (18.3)
CNE(14.0)
PGH (15.7)
PWE (11.3)
PVX (11.3)
ENT (17.2)
HTE (17)
MWE (6.6)
ERF (9.5)
I have avoided name which are good but user needs to study niches of those.
Other groups very good are gas and oil pipe lines ( They are almost no risk but steady and boring dividends but may be good for people over 50s who have crossed hump and are happy with steady boring returns), Other group is good but need understanding much more is shipping group huge dividends but buyer should know how to look at Baltic exchange and spot market rates which are changing. I will prefer most to keep away as they are too dynamic. These companies are registerd at many “banana republics” but they pay huge dividends. Before going there one should study pattern of spot rates ( seasonal nature), Dubble hull construction, soon phasing of Single hulls, difference between dry and liquid carriers, Vlccs, , If some has time should study this sector can be profitable. May be should write article. But this being more social economical place no place.
If one can control losses the game is won you have money at end.
NOW do not forget OIL and GAS dev. Corp of our country which is listed on LSE. ( I never understand why they go to European exchanges rather than American exchanges, can somebody tell me, my feeling is that too many and strict disclosers must be problems
) I hope this will give some raw food for thing for finding vehicles for savings and wealth creation.
Good luck every body and great day

The article is all over the place. The conclusions are disjointed from the main thesis that the author was developing - that there was certain amount of unified opposition to the deal amongst indian political parties.
Even under the best of circumstances, india will not be able to replace iranian oil any time soon. It takes time to build new power plants and electric power does not necessarily supplant petroleum.
As to the non-proliferation lobby, they are usually not anti-nuclear - they just don`t like to see any nation other than the recognized five plus israel get legitimate nuclear industry - some of them may even have a warm attitude towards india but they see this deal as a slippery slope where tomorrow, for example, china may make an exception in the case of pakistan or north korea.

#36 by asfand on December 14, 2006 2:34pm PT

Not enough to influence Iranian policy...there`s always china to sell the oil to...

Re: # 41
I am against nuclear energy the way it is produced which against humanity and produce stuff that can kill people in huge numbers over long term by slowly poisoning. Even against hydroelectric also as when take out energy of water and then people drink water creates not so good water as its like juice without vitamins and minerals it can no be healthy. It is good possible that light when takes power from turbine driven, produced by nuclear energy produced steam can start slowly emitting radiation like nuclear poison through light and kill over next 50 to 60 years with nuclear diseases. Only coal or gas produced power is contamination free as it releases poison, radio active material in air and air dilutes every thing. If I am super rich I will use only big candles which does not produce pollution which can kill you slowly.

Re: # 23
Dear Mr Nasah….. Your name is Hasan and you write alphabets in Arabic style, when I read that way it becomes any way its enigma ..

Now kindly read how Indians are in words of president Nixan. Now he was very devious himself. And when he qualifies some body means its real hard case of Saitan.
Nixon write in his memories

“Pakistanis are straightforward and sometimes extremely stupid. Indians are more devious, sometimes so smart that we fall for their line”,

He had also pointed out that the Indians manage to fool the American ambassadors to New Delhi and referred specially to their envoy at the time, Mr Keating. He revealed that the gentleman had wanted the US to “help India push the Pakistanis out (of East Pakistan)” and that, “Keating, like every ambassador who goes over there, goes over there and gets sucked in.”
Now he said he was not crook but when he says such things every sane person has to accept he is telling truth..

Look general president is straight forward thin as arrow and straight. He said good things about MMSING. But Mr. Singh showed gratitude Indian way and poisoned mind of Mr. Bush and backstabbed President. By doing wrong propaganda when he visited usa. He made false allegations against Pakistan like reckless nuclear proliferation making country, supporter of talibans and with thousands and thousands of madressahs , making factory production of Jehadis based on hatred of other religions etc. All pack of lies. When it comes to get benefits they are not shy to lie and magnify. All he did just so Pakistan does not get same Nuclear deal and brainwashed your American president and cheated him. He talks soft and slowly but stabs nicely. Fortunately we are getting better deal from China.

I am against this deal as its detrimental to Pakistan, china and America and for Indian people. Indian people will be subjected to radiation desease in big numers as they built shoddy buildings and recently they were building roof of atomic plant roof came down it was so bad. They are cheat and bad building will lead to leaking nuclear light ande killing in millions due to nuclear disease.
Have good day.

Ref dost-mittar #22

{harimou#21:
``So, when do you plan to start bhajan rounds in your neighborhood singing the praise of the Nehru-Gandhi clan?``

Not anytime soon:-).
[btw, bhaijaan is a term of endearment, not devotional singing] }

Bhai-jaan, I understand that term quite well. However, Dec 14 is the beginning of the month of Margazhi and here in Tamil Nadu we have people going around singing bhajans praising Ram, Krishna, Kartik, Ganesh, Shiva, etc., early in the morning. The finger-cymbals are used to keep the `taal` (beat). Having woken up several mornings in the past to bhajan singing in the month of Margazhi, I couldn`t resist connecting your singing the praises of Jawaharlal and Indira to the morning bhajans I am so familiar with.

Goat-Brain-in-Curry Sauce aka Asli-Masanamuthu aka Soysauce is already making the morning rounds with bhajans about Doctor Artist Leader Chief Minister the Fund of Compassion.

Even Yasser Latif Hamdani and his wife Ayesha Sarwari had gotten into the act (but about a month earlier; this must be because they use the Islamic lunar calendar) with a twist: they are denouncing the casteist racist pig Gandhi along with singing the praises of Jinnah. Sort of like denouncing Satan while praising Allah, I suppose.

asfand #10

`` US gains from this Nuke deal as follows:

1) Minimalize the Iranian influence on India by reducing India dependency on Iranian oil
2) Make Iran cash strapped as Indians will be able to produce electricity by Nuclear means thus will be buying less oil from Iran.
3) More influence in India due to dependency on US supplied fuel.
4) Weaker Iran directly translates more security to Israel.

Iran-Pak-India oil pipeline is already history as Indians pulled back from the project. ``

What makes you think India or Pakistan can afford the prices Iran charges for natural gas ?

`` Why is US doing all this:
So when the time come for marching orders against China, India will not be able to resist. ``

The India-China-USA triangle will be interesting exercise in geo-poliitics for decades to come. India and USA are hedging themselves against a potentially aggressive China. If China acts in a peaceful manner the alliance will be an exercise on paper.

China is the largest trading partner of USA and second trading largest partner of India.

Urstruly #1

`` I see India-US nuclear deal as one of the blessing in disguise for Pakistan. Over the years the Us aid has nothing but a crippling effect on Pakistan and it has only resulted in the haramkhori and corruption of the ruling class. Pakistan has always made great strides everytime opportunity presented itself to keep a distance from US sphere of influence. As US tilts itself closer to India, Pak will get closer to the Chinese and Pan Islamic influence - which is good for us. ``

India-US nuclear deal is no different from China`s deals with the West/USA for nuclear technology.

If the India-US nuclear deal is blessing in disguise for Pakistan there is no reason for Pakistan to demand it. China would not be criticizing the deal.

It beats me how the goldless pork eating Chinese are okay for Pakistan.

#36

asfand, thanks, that was really interesting.

Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA).
ILSA requires certain sanctions on investments over $20 million in one year in Iran’s
energy sector.

Agip (Italy), Statoil (Norwegian) and various Korean and Japanese companies are big investors in Iran energy sector so there is some standard loophole they use around the ILSA. but seems like if Uncle Sam wishes it has big club to hit India over the head with, if required.

Re: # 26

India buys 7.5 percent of total oil exports of Iran.

The full article is on the following link.

http://www.fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/70294.pdf



``India’s External Affairs Ministry reports that India-Iran commercial relations are
dominated by Indian imports of Iranian crude oil, accounting for roughly 85% of Indian
imports from Iran each year. The value of all India-Iran trade in the fiscal year ending
March 2005 increased by 36% over the previous year, reaching more than $1.6 billion (by
comparison, U.S.-India trade was valued at about $27 billion in 2005).13 Iran possesses
the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, while India is among the world’s leading
gas importers. With a rapidly growing economy, India is building energy ties to Iran,
some of which could conflict with U.S. policy and the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA).
ILSA requires certain sanctions on investments over $20 million in one year in Iran’s
energy sector. It expires on August 5, 2006, but there is pending legislation to extend it
(S. 2657; H.R. 5877), as well as to modify it (S.333 and H.R. 282). Under a reportedly
finalized 25-year, $22 billion deal, the state-owned Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL)
is to buy 5 million tons per year of Iranian liquified natural gas (LNG). To implement the
arrangement, GAIL is to build an LNG plant in Iran, which Iran does not now have.
Some versions of the deal include development by GAIL of Iran’s South Pars gas field,
which would clearly constitute an investment in Iran’s energy sector. India currently buys
about 100,000-150,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil, about 7.5% of Iran’s oil exports.
It is also widely reported that Indian refineries supply a large part of the refined gasoline
that Iran imports. Gasoline is heavily subsidized and sells for about 40 cents per gallon,
and Iranian refining capacity is insufficient to meet demand. Such direct purchases and
sales of petroleum product are not generally considered violations of ILSA.``

This is a well written and balanced article. It has a positive outlook and has not distorted perspectives or facts.
Both US and india, particularly India , have to learn to live with each other as they do represent the hopes of the Humanity`s ultimate welfare.
Both US and India have developed a working system which may allow diversity to flourish with minimum suffering on any individual group.
That does not mean that they have found the panacea for human existence but rather that both of them have to keep vigil to continue progressing in rational directions.

sorry, Perkovich is at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace now.

d-m, the situation is very complex and the knee-jerk free pass you give to them sticks in my craw. here`s a brief exposition:

some are principled, like IMHO Perkovich (read his book, its the best on the Indian nuclear program), he proposd an alternative to the july 7 agreement which from my perspective is consistent with the rest of his views on India (he is at brookings and you can read his stuff there).

On the other hand people like Jeff Lewis and David Albright (see some of their stuff at armscontrolwonk.com) are pure scam artists. for example DA came up with this idea on how tenders floated by AEC/BARC led to the Khan network developing better specifications for some equipment (in his opinion ``fed information into the khan network``) I cannot imagine a more obvious attempt to sling mud in hope that some of it will stick. But these guys are very influential and prominent members of the NPA community. Similar is also the work of the ``Wisconsin Project`` of Gary Milhorin (sp?), read up about that.

What about their behaviour for the whole of the late `80`s-late90`s when everyone and his dog was aware of the functioning of the Khan network but large segments of the NPA establishment (in alignment with US policy) kept silent over it. How come even today China is scarecely mentioned with regard to the Khan network (again in line with US policy).

This unfortunately in my opinion proves that large segments of the NPA community are far from ``principled``, they very cearly have their agenda`s.

arjun2#30:

``So the fact that he`s` working with an industry group completely impeaches the points he makes about nuclear energy?``

My assumption is that the industry group they are working for is set up by the nuclear industry, in which case it is similar to an anti-smoking advocate changing his tune after being employed by the tobacco industry.

But, hey, why are you arguing with me as if I am against nuclear energy? I am not. As far canucks, we wont mind selling a Candu or two of our own.:)