Afghanistan: The Continuing Challenge?

Presently the situation is as following:--
1-You cannot travel from Kabul to Kandahar in a private vehicle .Only in a bus.
2-Afghan Government has clamped 15 % duty on Pakistani goods.Although there is no custom duty on Indian or Iranian goods.
3-Afghan Embassy in Islamabad is discouraging visitors from Pakistan giving them only 15 days single entry visa.Pakistan Embassy in Kabul on the other hand for personal relations grants Afghans 6 Months multiple visa.
4-Taliban have crept in as close as Maidan Shahr in Wardak just 20 miles from Kabul.
5-Development work in Pashtun areas is near zero due to insecurity.

The Ongoing Taliban War in Afghanistan- A Brief Assessment

A.H Amin







The Taliban War in Afghanistan has its origins in the Afghan Revolution of 1978.At that time Khalq and Parcham were the two key groups of the Afghan Leftists.The Khalq was the more rigid as well as extremist while the Parcham was more flexible, opportunistic and urbanized.The Khalq in turn had two groups the Pro Tarraki Khalqis and the Pro Hafizullah Amin Khalqis.

As the Afghan War intensified after the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in December 1979 just like the USA intervened in November 2001 the war became very complicated.The new Afghan Intelligence initially known as AGSA headed by the indomitable Sarwari was later reorganized by Dr Najeeb and was known as the KHAD.When Dr Najeeb became the Afghan President in 1986 the KHAD was headed by Ghulam Farooq Yaqubi from 1986 till his sad suicide in 1992.During this time the KHAD succeeded in having various secret protocols with various Afghan leaders from various factions of the so called Afghan Mujahideen.Most of these protocols were with non Pashtun Mujahid groups.Thus as a result the non Pashtun Mujahid groups were brought closer to the leftist regime and since they were seen as moderates the USSR saw them as future allies in Afghanistan.As a result the non Pashtun areas of the north were relatively undestroyed while the brunt of destruction was borne by Pashtun areas of Afghanistan.

General Yaqubi a great intelligence professional knew that if the Mujahids occupied Kabul he was a dead man.He destroyed many secret documents and killed himself when the Mujahids occupied Kabul abandoned by the Khalqis and Parchamis to them for the sake of peace.

When Kabul was abandoned by the Khalqis and Parchamis in April 1992 following the last minute betrayal of General Dostum a diehard Parchami till then the Afghan leftists dissolved the party and the Pashtuns joined Hekmatyar's Hizb e Islami while the non Pashtuns joined Ahmad Shah Massouds group of Jamiat I Islami.

The ensuing civil war which started after the Mujahid (so called) occupation of Kabul in April 1992 continued till November 2001 when the USA launched Operation Enduring Freedom.During this period a new power alignment took place.The Russians,Iranians and Indian Governments became patrons of the Non Pashtun Groups later known as the Northern Alliance while the Pashtun Groups initially Hikmatyar and later Taliban were supported by Pakistan as well as Saudi Arabia.

In a crude way the struggle drifted from ideological lines to ethnic lines with Parchamis who were mostly non Pashtuns joining the Jamiat of Massoud later known as Northern Alliance while the Khalqis who were Pahtuns joined Hekmatyar and later the Taliban.

The US invasion of Afghanistan was launched with internal collaboration of the Northern Alliance a largely Non Pashtun dominated alliance against the Taliban who were largely Pashtun.True that the Northern Alliance had some lightweight Pashtuns like Abdul Haq , Abdul Qadeer and Siaf , it was a largely non Pashtun group.This led to an ethnic war in Afghanistan in which the Pashtun majority was pitched against the non Pashtun minority which was a US ally.It became immaterial whether a man was a so called Mujahid or a Khalqi or a Parchami.The dividing line became language i.e whether you were a Pashtun or a non Pashtun.The US tried to change this impression first by introducing Abdul Haq and later Hamid Karzai but the popular perception remains that Afghanistan is no longer a Pashtun dominated country. Operation Enduring Freedom the US operation to invade and occupy Afghanistan in late 2001 was hailed as a new kind of war in the US press.Till to date there is no tangible proof that this operation has succeeded.

According to US claims (Refers - Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war- Carl Conetta-2002-PDA Monograph # 6 , 30 January 2002) following was achieved :--



1. A reasonable estimate is that 3,000 to 4,000 Taliban coalition troops died, including those killed in battle, captivity, and by strategic bombardment.(Refers- Kirk Spitzer, "Green Berets outfought, out thought Taliban," USA Today, 7 January 2002, p.1) Among these dead may be 600-800 "Afghan Arabs" affiliated with Al Qaeda (out of an original total of 2,000-3,000). Notably, only a fraction of Al Qaeda fighters -- perhaps 25 percent -- are pledged members of the organization; the remainder are foreign volunteers brought to Afghanistan to fight in the civil war under Al Qaeda auspices.

2. Approximately 7,000 Taliban and foreign troops were prisoners as of 15 January; less than 500 of these had been transferred to US custody. A disproportionate number of the prisoners held by the Northern Alliance militias were foreign fighters, especially Uzbek and Pakistani.

3. Most of the top Taliban leadership has survived the war and eluded capture; many are in Pakistan and seeking to re-integrate into Afghanistan . Of more than three dozen Taliban leaders on the Pentagon's "wanted list," more than 12 have been killed, injured or have defected.

4. At least eight of the 20 top Al Qaeda leaders and aides pursued by the Pentagon in Afghanistan are believed dead. However, only two had been reported captured as of 15 January. Eleven training camps affiliated with Al Qaeda, and many other Al Qaeda facilities in Afghanistan, have been destroyed or overrun.

The same US observer analysed US success or failure as following :--



1. The Alliance victory and Taliban collapse profoundly altered the national and regional strategic situation in several ways -- none of them auspicious in terms of long-term stability:



2. First, the rapid victory of the Alliance and collapse of the Taliban released centrifugal tendencies throughout Afghanistan , giving warlordism, banditry, and opium production a new lease on life. This essentially erased the one positive feature of the Taliban period. An immediate effect was the aggravation of the country's humanitarian crisis. A longer-term effect will be greater difficulty in building a unified polity and resilient civilian authority.

3. Second, the advance of the Alliance and defeat of the Taliban altered the principal lines of opposition in Afghan society. Rather than following a "Taliban versus anti-Taliban" axis, conflict reoriented along purely ethnic, tribal, and sect lines. Within this, the position of Tajik and Uzbek minority interests advanced disproportionately. This will likely lead to a new bipolar configuration in the country: Pashtun versus non-Pashtun. The ethnic reframing of the Afghan struggle altered the political implications of US military operations in the country, which had focused almost exclusively on Pashtun areas since late-November.

4. Third, the increased salience of ethnic, tribal, and sect lines of division also increased the centrifugal pressures on the international coalition supporting the operation. Notably, the Alliance victory had substantially increased Russian influence in Afghanistan , contrary to US interests and to the dismay of both Pakistan and Iran. Indian interests (tied to the Tajik militias) also advanced substantially. These developments increased the prospects for intensified regional contention over Afghanistan.



This is not a brief written by an ISI general but the expert analysis of a US scholar.




The Afghan mission, NATO's first deployment outside of Europe or the US, is the alliance's biggest ground operation in its history with 35,000 soldiers currently in the country. The majority of these troops hail from the US and the UK. The ISAF currently has five regional commands in Afghanistan: north, south, east, west and Kabul . The ISAF's headquarters are at Camp Warehouse , 16 kilometers east of Kabul.

According to Brigadier General Patrick de Villiers of France, the ISAF's mission in Kabul is to hold Taliban insurgents in check while winning the hearts and minds of the local population by pursing small development projects in conjunction with local leaders to improve living standards while respecting local religion and culture.The same generally is the stated NATO/ISAF mission in Afghanistan.

The Turkish Armed Forces will lead the Kabul Regional Command mission until 6 December, when Italy takes the helm until August 2008.

Some Facts and Figures



NATO troops breakdown in Afghanistan as of early 2007 (based on interviews with various ISAF officers and authors own estimates)



United States, 12,000

Britain, 5,200

Germany, 2,750

Netherlands, 2,100

Canada 2,200

Italy, 1,800

France, 1,000

Romania, 750

Spain, 625

Turkey, 475

Norway, 350

Denmark, 325

Belgium, 300

Hungary, 200

Portugal, 180

Greece, 180

Bulgaria, 150

Lithuania, 135

Czech Republic, 100

Estonia, 90

Slovakia, 60

Slovenia, 50

Latvia, 35

Iceland, 15

Luxembourg, 10

Poland, 10

Non-NATO

Sweden, 350

Australia, 200

Croatia, 120

Macedonia, 120

New Zealand, 100

Finland, 100

Albania, 30

Azerbaijan, 20

Ireland, 10

Austria, 5

Switzerland, 5




The present situation is that the Taliban are controlling large parts of the following provinces :--



1. Ghazni (Andar District,Muqur) At least 30 % of the province by day and 60 % after sunset till dawn)

2. Zabul (At least 75 % of the province)

3. Uruzgan ( At least 55 % of the province)

4. Helmand (At least 80 % of the province)

5. Paktika (At least 20 % of the province)

6. Khost (At least 20 % of the province)

7. Paktia (At least 10 % of the province)

8. Farah (At least 55 % of the province)

9. Kunar (At least 20 % of the province)

10. Laghman (At least 20 % of the province)

11. Kapisa (Tagab district)

12. Kandahar ( at least 45 % )


Communications :---



1. Kabul –Torkham Highway is 90 % safe but there have been incidents of attacks on oil tankers.Many of these are however insurance frauds done by owners of oil tankers coming from Pakistan or by their crew who first sell the fuel and then put the tankers on fire.

2. Kabul-Kandahar Heart Highway :-- It is unsafe for any kind of civilian traffic between Muqur in Ghazni till Shahr e Safa in Kandahar and from Maiwand in Kandahar Province till Farah Rud and Adraskan in Herat Province in between 1600 in the evening till dawn.

3. Kandahar-Spin Boldak Highway :-- Safe during daytime but unsafe after 1600 till dawn.

4. Kabul-Mazar-Hairatan Highway :-- Safe 24 hours except odd cases of robberies.

5. Kabul-Kunduz-Bandar Sher Khan Highway :-- Safe 24 hours except odd cases of robberies.

Suicide Bombings :--



My personal study indicates that 70 % of suicide attacks against US/NATO/Afghan National Army/Afghan National Police occurred in Kandahar and Helmand Provinces ,15 % occurred in Kabul Province and 15 % in Khost,Ningrahar,Ghazni and Kunar.This scribe personally witnessed three suicide attacks and did manage to capture one on the camera in September 2006.According to some statistics compiled by Century Foundation New York the approximate casualties were as following :--

According to the Associated Press the USA has suffered as of Friday, Sept. 28, 2007, at least 375 members of the U.S. military had died in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan as a result of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001, according to the Defense Department. The department last updated its figures Sept. 22, 2007.Of those, the military reports 249 were killed by hostile action.

According to US Think Tank Century Foundations updated report of September 2007 casualty breakdown in Afghanistan was as follows:---



September 07, 2006

By the numbers: Casualties, Sept 2006

Here are the latest casualty figures I could find (Sept 7, 2006):



Violence related deaths in past four months: 1600 Source: AP

Coalition deaths since 2001: 466 Source: CNN

Non-US coaltion deaths: 137

US wounded in action since 2001: 893 Source: CNN



Breakdown of NATO/ISAF Casualties (Source Century Foundation/CNN)

US: 329

UK: 39

Canada: 32

Germany: 18

Spain: 18

France: 9

Italy: 6

Romania: 4

Denmark: 3

Holland: 3

Sweden: 2

Norway: 1

Portugal: 1

Australia: 1








AN ASSESSMENT OF EVENTS



The Taliban and USA had no conventional match so it was logical that the Taliban disintegrated initially in face of the US bombing offensive and later ground attacks of Northern Alliance as well as the US forces.



The Taliban's started re-grouping after mid 2002 having realized that the USA and its NATO allies had sparse ground forces.Initially they targeted NGOs and construction companies but by 2004 they started applying the tactics learnt in Iraq in Afghanistan.



By 2005 they were generally organized as regional battle groups under a command and control system.An assessment of this is shown on the map.Each regional group comprised a hard core of 150 to 350 and a total mobilized armed strength of 1000 to 2000 fighters.



According to a study done by this scribe for an international client IEDs were initially imported from Datta Khel and Pishin but later each regional group started manufacturing their own IEDs.Weapons and munitions were bought from Iranian Baloch and Kurd smugglers or from groups in Central Asian Republics.Most of the weapons were smuggled via Iran.



Taliban control over Helmand and South Nimroz ensured that they controlled the main drug transit routes hence this enabled them to maintain a strong leverage with Pakistani and Iranian Baloch tribes.



The USA and its NATO allies appear to have the following strategy :---



Control the key airfields of Afghanistan with minimum strength.
Hold Kabul in strength.
Show piece patrolling in Southern Provinces giving the impression that the ISAF/NATO is active but in reality avoiding pitched battles or any heavy troop copmmitment.
Rebuild the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police.This may take many dccades.Actual fighting indicates that both the ANA and ANP have extremely limited value while operating independently.Thanks to US insistence the Afghan Army was destroyed effectively in the period 1989-92 and building a effective army may take many decades.
It appears that the long term strategic purpose of Afghanistan was to dominate the regional states as well the resources by occupying airbases which would enable the USA to attack targets of its choosing , may they be WMDs or other installations.Effective countermeasures by President Putin of Russia however severely limited US influence in the Central Asian Republics.
Pressurise/armtwist Pakistani into destroying the main Taliban bases in Waziristan and North Balochistan.


The Taliban strategy is as following :---



Harass Kabul Herat Road disturbing container movements.
Cause attrition on British-Canadian troops in Helmand and Kandahar the Pashtun heartland thus demonstrating to all Pashtuns in Afghanistan that the Talibans are a major player.
Dominate the major drug production areas in the south and the main drug export routes thus financially sustaining the ongoing war.
Carry out continuous suicide and IED\bombings in Kabul and surrounding area sapping morale Of anti Taliban forces and demoralising civilians.
Carry out selective IED/Suicide Attacks against US Forces and US Civilans
Targeting the Afghan National Police which was not completely disintegrated in 1988-92.The Taliban know that the hard core of the Afghan Government is the ANP trained by the indomitable Sayyid Gulabozai.The Afghan National Police has at least 25 % officers trained in ex USSR and is very professional as well as patriotic.Thus the attacks on Afghan National Police by the suicide bombers as well as IEDs.


ANALYSIS







The strategic challenges that the USA confronts are complex and challenging and the present US leadership lacks the strategic talent to find a solution.Just sitting in Afghanistan and Iraq is not the solution.If not a reverse it is certainly not a success for USA and its allies.And every day spent in Iraq and Afghanistan without striking at the real centre of gravity is a strategic failure of USA.







Using the Northern Alliance as main Allies



The USA was seen as friends of Non Pashtuns in 2001.This created an alienation and feeling of betrayal in Pashtuns both in Afghanistan and Pakistan .This fact was admitted even by US scholars.Professor Rasul Amin who is this scribe's personal friend offered a very interesting explanation of this US failure.According to Prof Rasul Amin who was also Afghanistan's first Education Minister the main US advisor who according to US decision makers possessed Solomon's wisdom about Afghanistan,Zalmay Khalilzad was a non Pashtun.Rasul Amin stated in various discussions that Zalmay was a Changharay ( of Hindu/Indian origin) and not a Pashtun.He thus carried a conscious as well as unconscious bias against Pashtuns.This led to his advocating a course in US policy as a result of which US position became very partisan and negative in the eyes of the Pashtun population.



The USA achieved little by this favour ironically.The Northern Alliance's real allies and saviours were the Russians,Indians and Iranians and this remains the present position.To rub salt in the wound today the Northern Alliance propagates that they singlehandedly removed the Taliban understating and under emphasizing the impact of US aerial bombardment on Taliban.Thus although without USA intervention the Taliban would still have been ruling Afghanistan,the USA failed to gained the goodwill that they deserved from the Northern Alliance.The Northern Alliance knows that their permanent allies are Russia,India and Iran while USA is a dangerous ally which can change its policy at any times.Thus US policy laid the foundation of a possible division of Afghanistan into Pashtun and non Pashtun parts.This may take a decade or more but a foundation has been laid.



US strategy is not aimed at pacifying Afghanistan



The force ratio of USA and its major NATO allies is so low that it is not designed to pacify or control whole of Afghanistan.The major US targets its appears were the airbases and those they occupied.These airbases will go a long way in enabling the USA to strike at a multiple number of targets in the region.This has already led to China and Russia becoming better allies and has not served US policy.



Material motivation of various major participants exposed



One good result of the war is the fact that materialistic motivation of many majopr participants has been exposed.When the USSR intervened in Afghanistan in 1979 the then Pakistani military regime adopted a policy of aiding Afghan rebel groups on the slogan of Jihad.Today with more than 20 Christian countries occupying Afghanistan and with Pakistan facing a more grave threat on its Western borders there is no talk of Jihad now.The motivation in 1979 was to get foreign aid and this has remained the motivation in 2001.The same is true for the so called Mujahids of 1979-1989.They fought a Jihad against a non Christian USSR and are now major vassals of more than 20 Christian countries occupying Afghanistan.



Taliban a force to stay on the scene



In pure military as well as political terms the Taliban are a force that will stay on the scene unless there is a major change in US strategy.This would not lead to US withdrawal but it would certainly make Afghanistan's Pashtun and non Pashtun divide deeper.The USA would be the loser as the Northern Alliance regards Russia as a more solid and reliable friend and ally.The Taliban will dominate the south and the drug trade and there dominance would ensure that the Pashtuns remain relatively uneducated.Thus fundamentalism would be strengthened in the Afghan South and the regional threat will remain functional.



Taliban's Ability to acquire SAM capability will be a serious challenge to USA/NATO



Presently the Taliban have no SAM capability but if they acquire this the whole balance in Afghanistan would seriously tilt against the Americans/NATO.Presently the NATO is the master of the land battlefield because of dominance of the skies.This has enabled it to occupy Afghanistan with minimum forces and to economise on the war expenditure.A few SAMs can however change the whole situation.



IED and Suicide Attacks Main Strength of Taliban



The Taliban have mastered the use of IEDs and have a large reservoir of suicide bombers.These are two formidable weapons that they possess against which the USA/NATO has no countermeasure or remedy.







Conclusion



The Afghan battlefield will see few decisive battles and would continue to be a slow war of attrition in which the NATO/ISAF will rarely see the faces of their enemies.Time is on the side of Taliban.The NATO/USA has to decide on a definite strategy unless their aim is just to control the strategic Afghan airfields as jump off points for attacks on other regional countries in the next decade.Pakistan lost the good will it should have had in Afghanistan because its foreign policy was controlled by non Professionals.This failure started from removal of Agha Shahi from the Foreign Office.Shahi was not in favour of doing everything that the Americans told the Pakistanis.He was a seasoned diplomat.After his exit the Foreign Office passed into hands of soldiers turned diplomats with an over ride gear from General Zia and the so called Silent Soldier.

Seen in retrospect Pakistan's Afghan policy was a failure and the threat in 2007 to Pakistan's integrity is far more grave than in 1979.In this scenario the Taliban are a major contender.They have acquired a fearsome reputation not only as warriors in the Pashtun areas but also in the eyes of their NATO opponents.However the talk of engaging them is impractical.The battle that they are fighting is to the bitter end and this fact has to be digested by all decision makers on all sides.The Taliban have succeeded in destabilisng the region and herein lies their nuisance value.



Published Defence Journal October 2007 Issue

TEXT OF COMPLETE LETTER SENT TO DJ


This refers to Dr Hamid Hussain's article on ISI and Afghanistan published in the Defence Journal , Karachi.

Dr Hamid's criticism of the ISI bosses and the Pakistani generals is generally valid although i must add that he has been too polite.

I published his article on Afghan War when I was Journal of Afghanistan Studies in Kabul in 2004.The same was later reproduced in DJ.The article made many in the Pakistani establishment and Afghan establishment very unhappy and angry as I was told so by Professor Rasul Amin the head of the Think Tank that publishes that journal.

It is good that Dr Hamid Hussain is in USA while he writes these articles.

General Akhtar Abdul Rahman's main coup in getting promotion from the usurper Zia was while he was General Officer Commanding the 12 Division is Murree in 1977.He regularly spied on Mr Z.A Bhutto then under arrest in Murree and played on Zia's fears.This good reporting paid Akhtar dividends when Zia promoted him to head the ISI.

One of the reasons why Zia removed him from ISI was the intermarriages between the generals sons and daughters of then Generals Zahid Ali Akbar and General Rahimuddin ( the one late Maj Gen Iftikhar wanted to court martial in 1971 for disaappearinf from his brigade in Chamb).Zia rightly calculated that Akhtar by intermarriages was getting too powerful.Old fox and seasoned player that Zia was.

In Afghanistan the ISI had little strategy as agreed by many ISI hands who worked with Akhtar.All that Akhtar was saying in the conferences was that Kabul must burn ! There was little work north of Hindu Kush and North of Hindu Kush the ISI was not effective as clearly proved by later events from 1989 till todate.

One had to be living in the Pakistan of 1979 to understand the true motivations of the then Pakistani tinpot military junta to launch the so called Afghan Jihad.Neither it was purely Afghan nor a Jihad since it was manipulated by non Afghans and the main motivation was not to support the Afghans but to ensure that a military dictator who had usurped power in Pakistan in July 1977 survived.Pakistan was isolated in 1977.Roads were such that one could not travel between two main towns like Lahore and Multan without breaking the cars shock absorbers.

The Afghan War started a grand party for Pakistan's ruling elite and even Pakistan.Afghan refugees were cleverly and criminally used to solicit US and Saudi aid.All glorified as Jihad.False are the claims of todays Pakistani Government that Pakistan gave refuge to Afghans for free.All was done for money and politics.The greatest vindication of this fact is the fact is that now that the US forces are in Afghanistan no Paskistani tinpot dictator talks about Jihad.If the USA came to aid the Afghans in 2001 so did the USSR do so in 1979 but today this is being distorted.

The indiscriminate bombing/rocketing of Kabul was the most cowardly act.Many including wives of senior ministers like Gulabozai died in these rockets.Residential areas were rocketed including the apartments of Makroyan Kunha and Shahr e Nau.This policy was sanctioned and approved at the highest level by Akhtar.No Afghan Government in exile was created in Peshawar as it would have checked Akhtar's hold on ISI funds.

The loss that the so called Mujahideen inflicted on the Red Army was peanuts , just 14,000 killed with so much of foreign aid and advanced munitions.Most of the Stingers were sold and resold and this was good business.Actually my ongoing research proves that the standard of living of the so called Mujahids and many Pakistani generals improved during and after the so called Jihad .Today the so called Mujahideen are sitting in ministries with USA and 26 countries occupying Afghanistan.At least the Soviets were not Christians ! Thank God ! Today there is no Jihad although a foreign power is occupying Afghanistan ! It was all about money and staying in power when the Soviets occupied Afghanistan and all about money and staying in power when the USA occupied Afghanistan in 2001.The faces have changed but the modus operandi is the same !

The so called Mujahid leaders that Akhtar backed were non entities and they were backed because they were good yes men .This is proved by the fact that they immediately forgot their old patrons when the USA occupied Afghanistan and changed loyalties.

The so called Afghan Jihad was a failure as Zia and Akhtar were US pawns.When they did not dance to the tune they were removed with immaculate perfection !

About General Baig however I would slightly differ with Dr Hamid ! Baig had a better intellect but when he became the army chief the environment geopolitically speaking had changed.

There is one last phenomenon which occurs recurrently.Once Pakistani generals are rejected by the Americans they do start criticising the Americans.

However it must be understood that the USA has a far more long term agenda in Afghanistan than USSR ! The USSR played a major role in freeing many Afro-Asian nations by militarily supporting guerrillas ! They helped the Arabs in fighting Israel and now that they are not there Muslims are being kicked everywhere in Iraq and even dear Afghanistan where Akhtar fought the so called bear.

One last thing which must be remembered that Jihad has a link with technology and Talibans are being mauled in Afghanistan because they have no SAM missiles.

The Afghan War was a failure not only for the Pakistanis but the Afghans also and the threat remains.If Afghanistan was fragmented as a state, many other states face the same fate in its neighbouring region.While the Vietnam Communist Jihad was a success the Afghan Jihad was an undoubted failure.The threat that Pakistan and even Afghanistan faces today are far more grave than in 1979 as time will prove.The US Presidential candidates are issuing far more deadly statements than Brezhnev or any Soviet leader.The USSR kept its cool during the Afghan War while today the US politicians are talking about attacking Mecca and Waziristan and the latter may actually happen.
It is worthwhile to compare the standard of living of the Afghans who were in key positions in 1979 and 1988 and those in Pakistan . This is my first hand observation in Kabul and confirmed by many of my friends who were in Al Zulfiqar and ANP in Kabul while struggling against the military usurper Zia.

Dr Najib who was President of Afghanistan from 1986 to 1992 lived in a common apartment in Makroyan.Till his death he had no house.
Sayed Gulabozai the Interior Minister from 1978 till 1992 till to date does not have a car cor even a house in Kabul.He is so popular in Khost from where he hails that he got the highest number of votes from Khost in Afghan Parliamentary Elections of 2005.While General Akhtar hardly ever left his HQ in Islamabad to expose himself to fire , Gulabozai fought from the front and was a fearless military commander as minister of Interior leading the Sarandoy troops.
The indomitable Aslam Watanjar who planned and executed the Saur Revolution Coup of April 1978 and who I met in Russia in 1995 and 1996 and became a good friend was penniless and died in sad circumstances in 2000 and is buried in Oddessa.
Bariyali the close relative of President Karmal died penniless in Germany in early 2007 and money was collected by Afghan refugees to finance his body's transportation to Kabul.
No PDPA leader who served in the Afghan regime from 1978 to 1992 has a house in Wazir Akbar Khan , Kabul's most posh locality while most of the houses in that area are owned by former so called Mujahid commanders. General Ulumi who was PDPA Corps Commander in Kandahar in 1986-89 and fighting against the so called Mujahids is still so popular that he got the second highest number of votes from Kandahar in 2005 Elections.
Now compare the above with life style of General Zia's son . Zia was from humble background.So was the case of General Akhtar who led the so called Afghan Jihad and now his sons are multi millionaires and sitting ministers in the present Pakistani Government.

The so called Afghan Jihad was a success for many Pakistani and Afghans in personal terms.But these were a small minority.For the vast majority of Afghans it was a failure.Afghanistan lost the flower of its leadership,intellectuals and infrastructure !


kind regards

Agha

Originally Published Defence Journal Karachi-October 2007 Issue

GT, you may be misunderstanding IB and urstruly.

Neither IB nor Urstruly would have any problem with a stable Afghanistan were it to be ruled by or if it gave an important political role to the Taliban of Pakistani Madrassas. That has been the single focus of Pakistani government's efforts for a long time, and there isn't much of a contention over that issue among Pakistanis in general (differences between Pakistanis in general and Pakistani generals over Pakistan's external policies are grossly over-estimated anyway).

With due apologies to the writer (a digression):

In #7, I had mentioned that a democratic and friendly govt. would be to India's advantage. By this I do not mean that the Kashmir issue would go away. I believe that the majority of people in Pakistan want Kashmir to be a part of Pakistan. I also believe that they have no clue as to how it is to be done. Since roti, kapda and makaan are very important, it is very likely that clueless Pakistanis, Indians and Kashmiris will sit down and genuinely try to resolve the problem. In the process we can hope that only hundreds (instead of thousands) die.

IB:

" Destabilization of Afghanistan – helps Pakistan there can not be any doubts about it."

I do not know whether you are being sarcastic, but the destabilization of Afghanistan surely helps India. I can think of at least two reasons:

1. A stable Afghanistan would require (a) the Taliban playing an important role in the polity and (b) a stop on aid to terrorist activity directed at the West. In such a scenario, the Taliban will direct its activity towards India (which the West never cared about or cares about). Given India's present ability, it cannot do much to counter such activity if they were to indeed take place.

2. A stable Afghanistan would lead to stability in the tribal regions of Pakistan. Assuming that the power of the Pakistani army is a constant, this would lead to more trouble in India especially Kashmir.

IMHO, India cannot wish for a stable Afghanistan without a democratic and friendly Pakistan. It is sad that the birthplace of Pannini, Kautilya and Chandragupta Maurya (possibly) has to go through such trouble for the benifit of Pakistan and India. Perhaps, India again needs a Porus to rise in Pakistan to save India from the turmoil generated by today's Alexander.

harimau,
I aplogize for the typo - I meant 5 million
as for the 80,000 dead in Kashmir - thats partly to do with both of our country of origin ( Pakistan / India ) . I know Kashmiris back in Birmingham , Manchester , Bradford , Halifax etc.. who still are active in Kashmir in terms of donations / finance and human resources. There is a genuine independence movement going on in Kashmir - (Indian part ) there's a JKLF chapter in Pakistan ( but thats like a salt in flour ) .
Anyhow in those 80,000 dead in Kashmir - they are not only Kashmiris but brothers/sisters from Pakistan.

Ref IB #3

[First the refuge problem – I think we Pakistanis are the most welcoming people on earth ; if 20 refuges are awarded asylum in the United Kingdom at one go – hell will break loose . I still read how the British reacted to allowing Muslims/Hindus of Indian Origin to move to England (they have overseas British passport). We welcomed more then 50 million refuges]

The entire population of Afghanistan is not 50 million. Here is the data on Afghanistan from the CIA World Factbook:

Population:
31,889,923 (July 2007 est.)

Age structure:
0-14 years: 44.6% (male 7,282,600/female 6,940,378)
15-64 years: 53% (male 8,668,170/female 8,227,387)
65 years and over: 2.4% (male 374,426/female 396,962)
(2007 est.)

If you eliminate the 0-14 years category (since they were not even born in 1979 when the Russians invaded Afghanistan), the approximate population at that time would have been around 25 million.

So, along with that 50 million refugees, you need to talk about the 80,000 Kashmiri dead, how Islam is the religion of peace, etc. Those statements all go together very well.

I think the common sense suggests that whether there is a military dictatorship or democratic government in Pakistan, it is in the greater interest of all social classes of Pakistan and Pakistan as polity that neo-colonial occupation is Afghanistan should never let breath a sigh of relief. These western neo-colonials are mischief makers, unprincipled theives, and mass murdrers. They must be contained.

harish_hyd bhai - ( nothing against you personally , respect your opinion)

When Pakistan went against Soviets - it was in our own interest; we were left out with no option to against the giant bear (USSR) because we knew of there designs. They didn’t come into rocky – land locked country like Afghanistan for nothing – there eye was Pakistan; Balochistan to be precise. They started supporting anti-state elements of Balochistan before they entered Afghanistan. So like the British – we dragged Americans to the war.
You are correct when you point to the whole of tribal belt – which will be sorted out soon – funny thing happened yesterday one of there chiefs actually requested the new messiah of Pakistan – Chief Justice to take action. I am a Mushraff supporter in going after rouge elements in Tribal Areas – and in times to come things will improve with the jirga-agreements. There’s a joke on patans – that ‘once a khan was praying and right next to him was a gun and a pack of cocaine – when he finished his prayers – someone asked Khan Sahab – why Pray and Sell Cocaine at a same time – isn’t it hypocritical ? Khan replied ‘Prayer is part of my religion – Selling Cocaine my Business’ – and dealing with this lot is not easy.
Yes, we suffered from all what happened – anyone would have suffered. First the refuge problem – I think we Pakistanis are the most welcoming people on earth ; if 20 refuges are awarded asylum in the United Kingdom at one go – hell will break loose . I still read how the British reacted to allowing Muslims/Hindus of Indian Origin to move to England (they have overseas British passport). We welcomed more then 50 million refuges – the economy, social-culture was suppose to get effected. In this case you rightly pointed towards the ak47 / cocaine culture.
At a same time when we make genuine efforts to make peace – and halt support to freedom fighters in Kashmir; silence our intelligence operations in India what does Indians do? They take advantage of the situation. This should stop.

#1 by IB

Yaar IB, you should be careful about what you wish for..they may come true. The same cockiness was evident amongst Pakis when you supported the Mujahideen against the Soviets. Just look at the tribal areas now, your own army personnel are asked to move around in civilian clothes for security reasons. Even Indian Army personnel in Kashmir don't feel this threatened.

As you sow, so you reap. If the first round (the heroin and Kalashnikov culture) didn't teach you anything, the second round (the war on terror) surely will.

Destabilization of Afghanistan – helps Pakistan there can not be any doubts about it. The Pashtuns are feeling deprived of and this is causing unrest – where lot of pashtuns who went back to there villages after American Occupation – are now coming back to join Talibans not because of religious reasons but out of ‘Nationalism’ – a new phenomina amoung Pashtuns.
We in Pakistan – are playing a good game now ( shows that we have learnt a lot ) . We have learned a lesson from the Americans that ‘if you can’t fight your enemy then join them’ and that’s what we did and slowly but surely in a process of reaching our objectives.

a) The killing of Governor of Kandahar was a step in the right direction
b) Penetration into new Afghan Army / Govt. / Northern Alliance and Hazara Forces of Hazrat Ali are steps in the right direction


As far as our tribal belt is concerned – this was bound to happen as this was a refuge for the thugs/ criminals anyway and army stepping into the area bound to cause friction in the area. I think Pakistan should play dirty with both American and Afghans and should do whatever for the national security specially since the large Indian presence in Afghanistan.