Why the American War on Terror is Failing Miserably

majumdar #104 Costa Rica would be a great model if there were no external threats to Pakistan.

India, as you may know, has initiated wargames across the border - hardly a gesture designed to assure Pakistanis that they can let their guard down even as the country goes through internal struggles.

#104 DashDot: Your answer (i.e. condemning an entire generation of Pakistanis) gets an A for emotional satisfaction for someone raised on hate-Pakistan fodder, but gets an F for objective insight. :-)

Re: # 101

Second, Unless structural adjustments are made whereby no ambitious general can ever dream of overthrowing an elected government again in Pakistan, this struggle of the military vs the civil society of Pakistan will continue.

So, the big question is the one I had for HP in #97 - How does one ensure that the Pakistan military never overthrows the constitution in future?

This will never happen with the current generation of pakistani leadership. You will have to wait for a few years befor this happens. The current generation are venal, vicious and extremely feudal. Venal and vicious are negative characteristics to have in a politician, but when combined with the thrid one you get a mess.

You also need to get over the hangover of martial races concept....and it is this and the lack of opportunty for the young man with no money/backing etc are two of the main causes.....in fact I would say the "lack of opportunty" is the main cause....

Tahmed sahib,

(How does one ensure that the Pakistan military never overthrows the constitution in future?)

You may consider the Costa Rica model, it abolished the military simply to avoid military coup about 50 years back. Today it is the most prosperous and progressive nation in Mesoamerica. That too without any oil.

Regards

#99 majumdar/Dash_Dot: Who knows how this plays out. Two things seem certain:

First, the civil society in Pakistan, led by the lawyers, is not going to give Musarraf a comfortable dictatorship of the kind enjoyed by one of the middle east clowns (Mobarik, Gaddafi who is not just a dictator for life but is grooming his son, and Assad who inherited his dictatorship). And this is despite Musharraf's best efforts at destroying the civil society of Pakistan and promoting mullahism in its place (following the Mobarik Manual on Job Security for Dictators).
Second, Unless structural adjustments are made whereby no ambitious general can ever dream of overthrowing an elected government again in Pakistan, this struggle of the military vs the civil society of Pakistan will continue.

So, the big question is the one I had for HP in #97 - How does one ensure that the Pakistan military never overthrows the constitution in future?

Dash,

{The civilians will carry the can for a fiasco (killing pakistanis and/or not delivering) - the army will come out smelling of roses and we are back to square one.}

That is indeed very likely. If the kanjaroons succeed, Army gets all the credit, if they fail and concomittantly there are large civilian casualties, all the blame falls on the bloody civvies.

Having said that, the most likely outcome of the war in NWFP is a prolonged insurgency (like JK, NE India) without clear cut victories. And for that reason it is important that popular governance return so that the GoP can carry the whole nation along rather end up like 1971 fighting against its own people.

Regards

Re: # 92, #99 #98

ineresting scenario is this - Mushy gives up uniform to become prez, Bibi as PM, Kayani as COAS a good troika and heirarchy. (Internally it might be different, and given the NSC's composition it will be so).
It would be interesting to see what happens on the NWFP/FATA fronts. Note, the army is not able to make the unpalatable decisions (decisions which on the surface appear to benefit the US (see#92)), but the civilian govt headed by Mush as Prez and BiBi as PM will make those decisions and hand them to Kayani who will implement them. The civilians will carry the can for a fiasco (killing pakistanis and/or not delivering) - the army will come out smelling of roses and we are back to square one.

On the other hand, the civilians might just take this opportunty and ensure that power does not slip from them again. Somehow, i doubt this will happen with this generation of leadership in Pakistan. We will have to wait for another before it happens (I call it the Manto generation for want of a better phrase).

Tahmed sahib,

Assuming of course that Mush steps down as COAS what happens next?

Does Kayani come in and say "Thank you, sir and Khuda Hafiz" as Yahya is alleged to have told Ayub and dismisses him as Prez as well

or do we have a troika again - Kayani, Mush and BB ruling over Pakistan as peons of the West

or a genuine democratic order with fresh elections chosing a new electoral college which elects the new Prez as well as PM.

Regards

majumdar #95: While nothing Musharraf's government says carries any weight, given how easily he reneges on what he has said. It does seem though that he cant really stay on as military chief - and to my mind the credit for this goes to the bold stand the Chief Justice took last year when he refused to accede to Musharraf's demands to give him the benefit of legal cover to remaining a President in uniform.

Once the wardi is gone, Mush's power is bound to unravel it seems. The bigger question of removing military interference from politics and returning power to the Pakistani people thus comes to the forefront (see my post to HP below).

HP #92 That editorial was for Hamidm to consider, as you will note. Since he had been up in arms about maulvis being the problem (as Mush has been claiming), and this editorial indicates that Mush's game is up. And that to me is progress, since (as I have been pointing out to zeemax earlier), the mullahs are merely musharraf's bogeymen that he has used for job security.

On the bigger issue, I of course fully agree. The military in Pakistan has to be put in its place - it's job is to serve the Pakistani people, not rule over them. The central question is How?

To me there has never been a better time than now to do now.

HP #92 That editorial was for Hamidm to consider, as you will note. Since he had been up in arms about maulvis being the problem (as Mush has been claiming), and this editorial indicates that Mush's game is up. And that to me is progress, since (as I have been pointing out to zeemax earlier), the mullahs are merely musharraf's bogeymen that he has used for job security.

On the bigger issue, I of course fully agree. The military in Pakistan has to be put in its place - it's job is to serve the Pakistani people, not rule over them. The central question is How?

To me there has never been a better time than now to do now.

Masadi sahib,

The peon of the West (Mush that is not Tahmed sahib) will be stepping down as COAS by the weekend it seems.

http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/nov/21pakemergency2.htm

"Pakis tan President Pervez Musharraf [Images] may quit as army chief as early as this weekend, the government's top lawyer said on Wednesday.

"The issue of President Musharraf's uniform is now a matter of days," Attorney General Malik Qayyum told reporters at the Supreme Court.

If the apex court announces its verdict on a petition challenging Musharraf's re-election in uniform by Thursday and Friday, the president might doff his uniform by this weekend, Qayyum said.

The attorney general also indicated that Musharraf was likely to take oath as early as Saturday or Sunday.

The military ruler's re-election in the October 6 presidential poll was challenged in the Supreme Court though five of the six petitions were dismissed by Musharraf's hand-picked judges on November 19.

The remaining petition, described by legal experts as a minor one, will be taken up by the apex court on Thursday.

Musharraf was unofficially declared the winner in the presidential election, which was boycotted by the opposition, but the Supreme Court had barred the Election Commission from issuing the official notification of the result till it decided on his candidature.

After declaring emergency on November 3, Musharraf sacked most of the judges of the Supreme Court, including many of those who were hearing the case related to his re-election.

New judges who endorsed the emergency were sworn in later.

Musharraf has insisted that he will take oath as a civilian president for his next term once the apex court validated his election victory.

The Election Commission on Tuesday announced the schedule for the general election to be held on January 8."

Regards

Editorial from tahmed states "The state of emergency he declared did not facilitate the army's fight against extremists, as he claimed, but it allowed him to fire a dozen Supreme Court judges who were considering legal challenges to his highly manipulated "reelection" as president. "

"Firing" the SC was a mere distraction, the real issue was the uniform. The SC would have hopped to, as they did by allowing the election to go ahead in the first case by terming the objections "umnanageable" (what kind of BS was that?) That said, these same editorials did not make any issue of the SC when the same judges took oath under the earlier PCO or when a democratic setup was illegally usurped by Musharraf earlier, at that time Bush, without even knowing the name of Musharraf was all parises for him, they do not mention anything about the judges that hopped to to the earlier dictator the Zia ul Fcuq, they were all praises for him, and they will be all praises for the next ul Fcuk that the military coughs up when it coincides with US motives in the region. After a while dictators have to be discarded because the "office" a new situation makes them get too independant and forget who put them in the position in the first place, they get all confused about "sovereignty", in other words "wo ipni awkaat bhool jatey hain", and the the American "democracy" path to "dictatorship" kicks in just like the dictator's, "dictatorial path to democracy". Flip side of the same f'ing coin....

HP mian we all know why the peon of the West tahmed is doing by these posts, he is pushing the US pov, he will not condemn the institution supported by the Americans that coughs up one dictator after another, he will merely look at individuals because that will do nothing to change the relationship that ensures lack of democracy and the master/slave relationship that the US perpetuates through its occupation force. You can see through this peon's posts pre Feb 2007 and the kind of vitriol he has for Musharraf now was absent then, why? because he is merely pushing what happens to be popular with the US at the current time in its adjustments in the area....

#91

Editorials like this have only one purpose: look after the US interests. The problem in Pakistan is the Pak army not this general or that general.

Any editorial, write up or comment that says Gen Ash Kiyani "Gen. Musharraf's likely military successor, Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, a pro-Western moderate" is basically BSing. Is Kiyani more pro west than Musharaf or is he more moderate than Musharaf? What is there to prove his credential? The US wants to replace Mush with Kiyani. In essence just the same person with a different first and the last name.

Intelligent Pakistani should be calling for the end of the army rule. This is one hell of an opportunity to get rid of the army for good. The non sense like Kiyani is Pro West only means that he is acceptable to the US as the next President of Pakistan. What would Pakistanis gain if Kiyani becomes the President? It is the same old, same old shiat.

This is the real reech ka naach that we are witnessing...we need to get off madaripan that gives us a new reech every five years who still dances to the same old tunes. Every five years or so we get a new Pro west Army general as the President. This cycle has to be broken and it is not going to break by posting WP's editorials on Chowk. This is arjun's game and only arjun is dumb enough to play this. Why should others emulate him?

All this WP editorial means is: Naya jaam laiya puranaa Sharabi!

hamidm #81 An editorial that you might find useful when trying to understand the problem.

Gen. Musharraf Is the Problem
An end to Pakistan's political crisis is incompatible with his personal ambitions.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007

...It is increasingly clear that Gen. Musharraf has become the foremost obstacle to ending Pakistan's state of emergency and revitalizing what has been a losing battle against Islamic extremists.
..Every major step Gen. Musharraf has taken in the past two weeks has been aimed at preserving his hold on power, at the expense of his country. The state of emergency he declared did not facilitate the army's fight against extremists, as he claimed, but it allowed him to fire a dozen Supreme Court judges who were considering legal challenges to his highly manipulated "reelection" as president. Yesterday the new judges appointed by Gen. Musharraf dismissed most of the challenges; they are paving the way for him to remain president even as they destroy the nascent independence of the Pakistani judiciary.

..Musharraf has sought to appease the Bush administration by announcing parliamentary elections for early January. But he has refused to lift the state of emergency and has suggested several times that he will hold the vote under de facto martial law. That would save Gen. Musharraf from the political and legal challenges that could flow from a restoration of the rule of law, since his actions after he suspended the constitution have been hugely unpopular and blatantly illegal. It could also allow him to control the results of the elections and prevent a strong showing by Pakistan's two largest secular political parties, which oppose him. But it would make a mockery of democracy and ruin the chance for Pakistan's moderate center -- its political parties, jurists, journalists and civil society groups -- to unite with the army against the growing threat of the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

The Bush administration, which for years has made the mistake of wedding itself to Gen. Musharraf rather than working to strengthen the country's secular institutions, at last is backing away slightly. President Bush telephoned the general to ask that he step down as army chief; Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte said after meeting Gen. Musharraf on Saturday that "emergency rule is not compatible with free, fair and credible elections." Mr. Negroponte also met with Gen. Musharraf's likely military successor, Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, a pro-Western moderate. But the Bush administration is still clinging to the idea that Gen. Musharraf can be induced to make a deal with opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, though she has said publicly that she will no longer work with him.

In reality, it is difficult to imagine a positive outcome to Pakistan's crisis that does not involve Gen. Musharraf's retirement. The country's best interest, and that of the United States, lies in restoring the constitution, reinstating and strengthening an independent judiciary, reopening independent media without restrictions, and holding free and fair elections in which all Pakistani parties are able to participate. As Gen. Musharraf himself has recognized, he cannot survive in office under those conditions.




http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR 2007111901197.html