The Real Issue Facing Pakistan

Anil Saheb,

I glanced through your response but didn't find an answer to the key question I had asked. I promise to read again tomorrow as it may be in there somewhere.

The question was:

Dollar drop against some currencies is immaterial for US. It has only pushed up the price of French wines and German BMWs. Has it dropped against the Japanese Yen? If not, why not? We can only go further if you answer this.

Dollar dropped steeply against the Euro, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Aussie, Kiwi ... even the SA Rand and the Polish Zloty, but stayed put against the Japanese Yen. Mind you, all these currencies are free-floating. If Dollar drops, Yen must rise. It didn't. Why? Which theory supports that?

The answer is simply US consumption. Japanese goods cannot be dearer in USA because Dollar has fallen all over the world against every single major currency. Yen is a special case. Japan is a US colony. They set the rate where US wants it to be. Unfortunately China will not comply.

That's just 'one' Achilles heel. But there's another which I promised not to tell you. And I won't :)

hamid writes "pardon me for being a traditionalist..."

You're not being a traditionalist, you're trying to imitate being a red neck a few steps away from having the intellect of white trailer trash. That is the propaganda they have been fed by the corporations, i.e. what is good for the corporations (i.e fleecing the people) is actually good for the people (who are being robbed blind). And the fools buy into it, just because they get to drive a Harley and piss down their life's earnings does not mean they are either well off, independant or intelligent...

zeemax/anil,

..... pardon me for being a traditionalist, but i still believe in alfred p. sloan .... he said: "what is fgood for gm, is good for america" ......... and the chinese believe it too .......

from forbes:

Asked which automaker will win China, more than one analyst or accountant says simply, "China will win."

Yes, the world's fastest-growing auto market tantalizes automakers with its potential for growth and profits. American automakers see China as a growth market that could help make up for falling profits at home. They aren't alone. Japanese and European carmakers also have high hopes for China. Volkswagen (otc: VLKAY - news - people ), Europe's largest car company, now sells more cars in China than it does in its home market of Germany.

But the real beneficiary of the automotive investment will be China itself, which is building its own car business with the help of foreign investors, who, according to a law stipulating that an individual foreign investor may not own more than 50% of a Chinese manufacturer, must partner with Chinese companies to enter the market.

Thanks to advantageous laws like this one and the financial and regulatory backing of the government, as well as China's growing economy, low labor costs and enormous population, the Chinese automotive landscape could ultimately resemble that of Japan or South Korea: developed with the help of the West, with Western investors gradually reduced to minor players. Today there are more than a dozen state-run automakers in China.




................. basd on personal experience, i can tell you that gm sold its soul to the devil when it set up saic - today china owns all the technology that gm brought to the table ..... it is the price gm was willing to pay for a share of the market ....... and it is the same with other idustries ........

having said that, it is not a zero sum gain ......... everyone wins except for the suicidal jihadis who think someone has to loose in orde for them to win .........

Zeemax sahib:

All I can say you are deconstructing the picture, and your reconstruction that China can induce inflation, and can crash the U.S. economy does not hold water. Nothing that you have written seals it.

I pointed some fallacies, and you asked me to itemize them and I did. By no means I am an expert. Your answers are still contracdictory and will not construct an argument in support of your basic statement.

My answers will only digress the debate still further. If you believe it so strongly and have the leanings, I do not know if I am in any position to suggest to you that you please advise Al Qaida to immediately get hold of President of China.

I know the secular trends that I have listed are systematically unleashed by dollar drop and inflation.

You keep implying that China will be an isolated economy. You continue stressing, with no base that China will seed LDCs before its domestic consumption. When China as successful as it is in capturing market share in the bulk of the world with its products from 10% of China, will ignore the pathetic purchasing power in 90% China, and go on to first increase purchasing power in LDCs and then sell its prduct. This is absurd and flies in the face of reality.

China's great departed leader, Deng Xio Ping is on record that coastal China has till 2020 after that commnad and control restrictions on lanor movements, and rural Chinese being paid in IOUs for their farm products would create uprising and will not work.

China wants to be in WTO. Seeding domestic consumption is eminent to avoid uprisings. It is cheaper than first increasing the purchasing power and then selling to LDCs. You may not know that Nokia's largest market in the world is not in LDCs or the U.S., it is China.

Your wrong assumptions distort all arguments you present. Another false assumption is that communist commmand and control on market is permanent. It is not.

10% Coastal China will not be able to subjugate 90% internal China forever. Another majorly wrong assumption on your part. It will loose economic leadership and create chaos. Properity and progress has not come because of 90% inside China - never did never did in the past. You are implying that so what 10% is annhilated, 90% inside will support.

Such regressive thinking is often demonstrated by fundamentalists of all shades and colors, gives me shivers. It is similar to the last loosing argument they offer that if they go back to old ways (in this case old ways are still there in 90% China) will be great.

This statement is blind of the truth that once that darn 90% was 100%. And it did not work.

Reformed 10% has catapulted China, 90% still remains drag.

You have extended my opium trade example in wrong direction. I would keep pointing that Chinese despite injustices did not wear suicide belts and blow up in mosque full of people praying on an important festival.

They surely gained a world advantage though 10% of China. Imagine what can be if remainder is brought in, rather 10% is destroyed in the process of inducing inflation in the pockets their trading partner who buys and pays in its currency.

All indications are contrary to what you imply the world is getting more intertwined not less. China will get and will want to get more intertwined. This is the natural to reap after building a very significant competitive advantage.

Now coming to your answer on Musharraff. It baffles me even more. You say he is doing a good job, but he will loose.

I must then ask that if are you a true Pakistani, why would you want him to loose? Why would you not want more Musharraff's be created?

If I were you, I would precisely be asking for more Musharraffs, not conspire him to defeat him. Then I am not a Pakistani and do not understand the psyche. I do like Iqbal's, Faiz and Mehdi Hassan.

I make a following prediction, and I will buy you a beer, if does not roll out in post election Pakistan.

Musharraff has created a great position internationally. He has played very well in the guessing game with the U.S., and collecting and acting on guesses, and managing what is delivered to the U.S. in return.

He will do exactly the same domestically. He will have three options, PML-Q and alliance, PML-N and PPP. I could not believe what I read BB shouting that Nazim's are PML-Q guys and will hire temp police force for 3 days. Zeemax sahib, say eveything but do not say that people in other democracy build grass root level support in any other way. Public prosecutors, after all are hired and fired in America also.

These three parties or their alliances, according to what Romair posted earlier will have approximately the similar seats. No one paty will have a clear majority. He will negotiate with one or two to partner. His only term will be accept him as the president for the next five years. This would mean convert all the ordinances he signed during emergncy into legislation.

If these partners deliver it with Iftikar Chaudhury or whoever, he would care less. End justifies the means, Zeemax sahib.

I must take leave. It was very nice talking to you, and enjoyed it.

Zeemax yaar, it is not that dire as you predict. fromwhat I have seen, PE groups are already seeking manufacturing bases out of china, into the frontier and other markets. Vietnam and Malaysia are going to figure prominent, India is also in teh fray. latin america is also growing but you hardly hear it. Capital markets in Latin america are decades ahead of china ion instrument sophistication, liquidity adn technology.

None of this happens overnight. US is not going anywhere. China doesn't have the US "by the balls"...China is not the only creditor to the US. Japan. Arabs and even India hold tremendous reserves in US $. All these countries will find balance to make it work..an implosion or explosion in the US is not happening. China is well on its way to join the leagues of the big boys..and good for them. this is not done in a vaccum. Their trade policies and monetary policies will have to tempered with American wishes. It is not and should not be an us vs. them..if that is so..China will lose.

... but I think I missed answering your central question, as to how inflation induced by the Chinese can crash US economy.

US consumer is now embedded in cheap Chinese goods. No where else in the world can it find a substitute because labour costs are controlled in China while every other exporter including India is a free market economy. If China has enough markets to take up its production and its US exports peter off, there will be a massive drop in consumer spending in the US. You like to use the word 'lifeblood' or something like that, consumer spending is the 'lifeblood' of US economy. If that goes, the phenomenon of 'stagflation' will occur for which the Fed cannot do anything but cut rates till zero, for domestic production to pick up, but even if it succeeds, will that production be as cheap? Perhaps, but only in a 1929 scenario.

There won't be an alternative but to find production from elsewhere as cheap as the Chinese one for americans to buy.

And where might that come from? Only through occupation of China. No other way.

Cheers till tomorrow!

The Mahsuds know fighting and have fought well whether it was Flanders or East Africa or whether it was against the British colonials ! Between 1914 and 1918 they killed 246 British soldiers and their Indian camp follower mercenary soldiers , capturing 400 rifles ! 180 major crimes in 1915 alone with 100 victims dead and 93 fat Hindu moneylenders and businessmen kidnapped ! In April and May 1917 the Mahsuds had bagged 207 in killed , nearly all regular army men both British and Indian , wounded some 140 and captured some 238 excellent standard British Indian Army issue Lee Enfield Rifles ! All with force of conviction backed by tremendous stalking skills and some Lee Enfield Rifles ! The Mahsuds serving in the British Indian Army did equally well ! They bayoneted a British officer at Bombay ! The British exasperated at their inability to instill timidity docility and meekness in the Mahsuds unlike many other races of Indo Pak Muslims declared that “ Mahsuds were a byword for unreliability” ! Many deserted to the Turkish and German lines in France , Egypt and Mesopotamia returning to Waziristan to carry on the real war against the colonial masters !The British were thus forced to disband most of the ten pure Mahsud companies of the Indian Army after the First World War !



While 421,000 Acres were distributed in West Punjab as Jangi Inams to the more misguided , pliable mercenaries in the Chenab and Bari Doab , for fighting against the Turk Muslims , the tribal areas were gifted with more forts , aerial bombing and destruction of whole villages ! It is an irony that these tribals figure nowhere in the history textbooks in Pakistani schools simply because no Wazir or Mahsud writes books for the various text book boards ! What is happening in Wana is a mere continuation of that story ! In 1919 the enemy was the British Empire , today it is the American Empire !



The Tribals do not have sons living in Boston or brothers working in American corporations barring few exceptions ! Their life script is not a green card or a Canadian Visa in the best tradition of “ Hop Step and Jump” from Lucknow , Karachi to Toronto ! They are not interested in pleasing glorified section officers of state department , sheepishly and obsequiously referred to as US Assistant Secretaries of States by the Pakistani Foreign Office !



The tribesemen are the men who resolutely charged the British Indian troops armed with Gatling Machine guns and Breach loading artillery guns with knives and muzzle loaders ! The British were so deeply disturbed that they lost faith in their weapons ! British officers rationalized their failures by alleging that their rifles lacked stopping power to check the tribal charges ! It was stated at staff debriefings that the then new caliber 303 lacked the stopping power of the previous caliber 457 rifle ! Secret forensic tests were then carried out on the corpses of Pathan Mullahs who had been already executed by firing squads using various types of ammunition ! Today we hear of corpses of Chechens being sent for DNA tests ! Perhaps to discover how to make them as docile timid and meek as soldiers from many US vassal Islamic states !



On one dark March 1915 night Jemadar Mir Mast Afridi another indomitable tribal from Tirah made history not by shamelessly collaborating with the British to get some squares in Chenab colony like many from rain irrigated areas of Gujar Khan , but by deserting with 14 other Afridis to the German lines in France ! Mir Mast was awarded a very high German gallantry award Iron Cross by a personality no other than the German Kaiser and then sent to Tirah to carry on the Jihad against the British !



The Mahsuds and Wazirs are masters of ambush , raid and concealment ! They know the regular military tactics on their finger tips since many are ex servicemen , deserters or descendants of freedom fighters ! They may not know the art of getting a good ACR or pleasing multiple bosses starting from those in uniform till US state department clerks or section officers , but they know how to polish off one man with one round !



The tribesmen do not need three inches of neat whiskey to raise their spirits ! They rely on their faith in God or on some cigarettes fortified with Cannabis in case of the less pious ones ! They do not speak the Pashto of Mardan or Nowshera corrupted by ease and luxury thanks to Upper and Lower Swat Canals or easy jobs in the Nowshera Garrison !



What is happening in Waziristan today is no clash of terrorists with loyalists ! Loyalists certainly on one side but no terrorists opposing them ! If Loyalism is toeing the US State Department line then anyone opposing this line cannot be dubbed as a terrorist ! One may ask the US loyalists that where was their Islam when sons of middle class Jullundhur Pathan generals were smuggling Stingers to UAE or when grandsons of military tailors from Jullundhur were playing in millions stashed in UK bank accounts ! At that time Waziristan was El Dorado and today the Geo TV calls it a haven of terrorists !

This is a clash of two philosophies of life ! One that values the freedom of man and another that is enslaved by green cards , palatial bungalows and dominated by social climbers ! One consisting of descendants of freedom fighters and another consisting of descendants of economic migrants or recipients of Jangi Inams in Chenab Colony !



The USA aims at instilling docility timidity and meekness in the Islamic world ! Waziristan is one decisive testing area in this exercise !

The Mahsuds know fighting and have fought well whether it was Flanders or East Africa or whether it was against the British colonials ! Between 1914 and 1918 they killed 246 British soldiers and their Indian camp follower mercenary soldiers , capturing 400 rifles ! 180 major crimes in 1915 alone with 100 victims dead and 93 fat Hindu moneylenders and businessmen kidnapped ! In April and May 1917 the Mahsuds had bagged 207 in killed , nearly all regular army men both British and Indian , wounded some 140 and captured some 238 excellent standard British Indian Army issue Lee Enfield Rifles ! All with force of conviction backed by tremendous stalking skills and some Lee Enfield Rifles ! The Mahsuds serving in the British Indian Army did equally well ! They bayoneted a British officer at Bombay ! The British exasperated at their inability to instill timidity docility and meekness in the Mahsuds unlike many other races of Indo Pak Muslims declared that “ Mahsuds were a byword for unreliability” ! Many deserted to the Turkish and German lines in France , Egypt and Mesopotamia returning to Waziristan to carry on the real war against the colonial masters !The British were thus forced to disband most of the ten pure Mahsud companies of the Indian Army after the First World War !



While 421,000 Acres were distributed in West Punjab as Jangi Inams to the more misguided , pliable mercenaries in the Chenab and Bari Doab , for fighting against the Turk Muslims , the tribal areas were gifted with more forts , aerial bombing and destruction of whole villages ! It is an irony that these tribals figure nowhere in the history textbooks in Pakistani schools simply because no Wazir or Mahsud writes books for the various text book boards ! What is happening in Wana is a mere continuation of that story ! In 1919 the enemy was the British Empire , today it is the American Empire !



The Tribals do not have sons living in Boston or brothers working in American corporations barring few exceptions ! Their life script is not a green card or a Canadian Visa in the best tradition of “ Hop Step and Jump” from Lucknow , Karachi to Toronto ! They are not interested in pleasing glorified section officers of state department , sheepishly and obsequiously referred to as US Assistant Secretaries of States by the Pakistani Foreign Office !



The tribesemen are the men who resolutely charged the British Indian troops armed with Gatling Machine guns and Breach loading artillery guns with knives and muzzle loaders ! The British were so deeply disturbed that they lost faith in their weapons ! British officers rationalized their failures by alleging that their rifles lacked stopping power to check the tribal charges ! It was stated at staff debriefings that the then new caliber 303 lacked the stopping power of the previous caliber 457 rifle ! Secret forensic tests were then carried out on the corpses of Pathan Mullahs who had been already executed by firing squads using various types of ammunition ! Today we hear of corpses of Chechens being sent for DNA tests ! Perhaps to discover how to make them as docile timid and meek as soldiers from many US vassal Islamic states !



On one dark March 1915 night Jemadar Mir Mast Afridi another indomitable tribal from Tirah made history not by shamelessly collaborating with the British to get some squares in Chenab colony like many from rain irrigated areas of Gujar Khan , but by deserting with 14 other Afridis to the German lines in France ! Mir Mast was awarded a very high German gallantry award Iron Cross by a personality no other than the German Kaiser and then sent to Tirah to carry on the Jihad against the British !



The Mahsuds and Wazirs are masters of ambush , raid and concealment ! They know the regular military tactics on their finger tips since many are ex servicemen , deserters or descendants of freedom fighters ! They may not know the art of getting a good ACR or pleasing multiple bosses starting from those in uniform till US state department clerks or section officers , but they know how to polish off one man with one round !



The tribesmen do not need three inches of neat whiskey to raise their spirits ! They rely on their faith in God or on some cigarettes fortified with Cannabis in case of the less pious ones ! They do not speak the Pashto of Mardan or Nowshera corrupted by ease and luxury thanks to Upper and Lower Swat Canals or easy jobs in the Nowshera Garrison !



What is happening in Waziristan today is no clash of terrorists with loyalists ! Loyalists certainly on one side but no terrorists opposing them ! If Loyalism is toeing the US State Department line then anyone opposing this line cannot be dubbed as a terrorist ! One may ask the US loyalists that where was their Islam when sons of middle class Jullundhur Pathan generals were smuggling Stingers to UAE or when grandsons of military tailors from Jullundhur were playing in millions stashed in UK bank accounts ! At that time Waziristan was El Dorado and today the Geo TV calls it a haven of terrorists !

This is a clash of two philosophies of life ! One that values the freedom of man and another that is enslaved by green cards , palatial bungalows and dominated by social climbers ! One consisting of descendants of freedom fighters and another consisting of descendants of economic migrants or recipients of Jangi Inams in Chenab Colony !



The USA aims at instilling docility timidity and meekness in the Islamic world ! Waziristan is one decisive testing area in this exercise !

#137 Posted by zeemax on December 26, 2007 11:41:52 am


They are not dependent on exports because 90% of China still has a fixed wage system and state enterprise.


Are you for real?

Why don't you visit china and tell this to a chinese person.

The assertion is that Pakistan Army and USA can easily cut the taliban Line of communication is also incorrect.

1-The USA has less than 10,000 active troops in Afghanistan able to act as interdictors.20,000 are committed in admin,line duties etc.Of the 1900 KM frontier in which Talibans are active just 300 KM is actively cordoned by Pakistan Army.

2-The major Taliban area of ops Helmand and Kandahar which is more than 600 kilometres long has no Pakistan Army troops.

3-Terrain wise sealing Afghan Pak border is near impossible.

The article carries many major factual and analytical errors:--

1-The writer refers to Northern Tribal Areas.This is an absolutely new term ! Waziristan the main area of insurgency is not in the North but south of NWFP.Both North and South Waziristan Agency.

2-The writer states that British had good relations with tribes.Absolute nonsense.No connection with facts.Between 1848 and 1947 the British had to launch more than 500 expeditions against the NWFP tribes.In 1947 the British were maintaining more than 2 regular army divisons in tribal areas apart from FC.

3-The writer states that settled areas were more anti British.Absolute nonsense.In First World War tribals led the anti British movement.Mahsuds of 130 Infantry bayoneted a British officer.Mir Mast Afridi defected with 14 Afridis to Germans in France and was awarded Iron Cross by Kaiser.After First World War Afridi and Mahsud rdruitment was severely reduced in Indian Army since they were regarded as disloyal.

4-After partition tribals were OK because Jinnah wisely withdrew all the army from tribal areas.

5-Its a new assertion we are hearing that tribals from Pakistwn were fighting in Afghanistan.All major Afghan parties were Afghan based in manpower.I am living in Kabul for last four years and have had continuous interaction with many tribals since 1979.A Pashtun from Pakistan is instantly picked up by his dialect and even the way he dresses.

6-The political reality is that Pakistan is having no genuine political party ready to deliver the goods.The writer has given a rather simplistic solution without a solid rationale.

7-Its a repitition of what Hussain Haqqani has written in Between mosque and military.

#128 Posted by anil,

You raised the point that Chinese can cause crash in the U.S. economy through inducing inflation.

Yes I did Sir.

1. it is naive and based on anger and emotions.

It is based on none of the above.

2. two economies are interwined.

For the start yes, but that's not the Chinese plan for these to remain intertwined.

3. inflation will disturb exchange rate mechanisms that would harm China.

Inflation in US? Or China? If you mean inflation in US,it will strengthen Yuan against USD (Real Effective Exchange rates are determined by inflation differentials).If you mean inflation in China, that will weaken Yuan and make it even more export competitive.

The competitive advantage of the Chinese is around 40% despite the 12%appreciation of their currency in 2 years. Unless inflation in USA exceeds 40%, the Chinese will still have a cost advantage built into the exchange rate.

4. Growth in LDC markets requires seeding, even then it will not be a substitute for loss of share in the U.S. market. Chinese are no more benevolent than European colonialist to do things in LDCs purely out of goodness of Chinese heart. There priority is limited to securing supply energy and resources, not developing consumer demand for their products and services in LDCs.

You need to remember China is still a communist country. It is a centrally planned economy. There is no compulsion of monetary policy or market behaviour. They are not dependent on exports because 90% of China still has a fixed wage system and state enterprise. All they need exports for is for import coverage. I suggest you look at their trade surplus and see how much exports they can easily sacrifice for influence in LDCs.

5. Chinese will seed domestic consumption before LDC.

No they won't. They will encourage domestic consumption only when they can produce enough domestically and not to be reliant on imports.

6. Chinese are more vulnerable to inflationary pressures than they can harm.

That's true to some extent. Inflation in China is high and they do not manage it through manipulation of their exchange policy regime. All the export dollars are bought by their central bank and paid-for in domestic currency, which adds to the aggregate money supply and results in inflation. But they're happy with it. They don't want to hike rates to curb inflation but instead do it through subsidies for essential items from the national exchequer. No one is complaining.

7. U.S. currency is more than U.S. currency, it is also the currency for cross-border transactions, and therefore blood of the world economy.

Correct. But the value of the USD does not matter to US domestically, which is why it has fallen this year due to the interest rate policy of the Fed (see the current account deficit reducing as a result). It does however matter to everyone else. There's something called the 'Bretton Woods II'. The LDC exporters to US have no choice but to prop USD up against their own currencies. So I agree that it won't collapse.

8. Its devaluation (which would be inevitable due to induced inflation) will tilt the flow of this blood in favor of the U.S. and not China.

See above. The domestic market in US is large enough so that dollar ups and downs do not impact it. They might sell more aviation and defense equipment, but that's about all. Dollar's fall or rise does not make any difference to the domestic US consumer.

9. Any such attempt by China will wipe its reserves faster than they can crash the U.S. economy.

You mean my comment re shift of China's exports elsewhere? Firstly it won't hit it's reserves at all given their present strategy. Please study the pattern of Chinese exports to EU. Secondly, even if it does, it doesn't matter for China because US treasuries are worthless for China anyway.

Look, let me tell you a little story.

When the British were shipping Silk from China to Europe, the ships were coming back empty. So they hit upon the idea of stopping in India on the way and picking up opium for China. The Chinese never forgot that.

For China, 'THEIR' ships are now coming back empty from USA. US will never return their money if Chinese demanded it back. And don't worry too much about that 'negotiable' stuff.

10. While holder of the U.S. debt papers - in China in this case will suffer and shrink its net asset value.

True. Who cares? Certainly not the 'people' of China. It is a communist country. Sir, how many times do I have to remind you?

11. China's economy is a producer economy and will suffer more, as its input costs will go up and paid for in higher value currency. While it will receive payments in future for the output paid for in dollar.

Before saying this, you should see what inputs China imports at all except Oil.

12. Inflation will cause loss of value of the U.S. value, which make the U.S. economy more competitive, which already is world's most productive, most efficient and among the highest working hour economy.

Yes they will sell more planes and guns. I already answered this.

13. This can cause loss of jobs in China's low value added manufacturing. I gave a reference to Nike's master plan on greenfield projects anywhere, which can set up, start and shift production in 90 days to anywhere. LDC's will take making of t-shirt and Nike shoes, than t-shirts and Nike shoes from China.

What loss of jobs? Only in the 10% coastal regions. Rest of China's jobs are guaranteed by the State. Besides, most of the inputs for the coastal export juggernaut is actually made in the 'communist' part of China by State-Owned enterprises.

14. Chinese - U.S. end game is a few decaded away. China is in no rush to deplete its reserves in indulging in such war games, and will not satisfy anyone's anger or jihadist tendency.

That's your view and you're entitled to it.

15. I also said that I do not completely understand, and also suggested that neither do you, the complexities of calculations of dollar drop, which would be one of the many affects to Chinese induced inflation to crash U.S. economy.

Bhai, Dollar drop against some currencies is immaterial for US. It has only pushed up the price of French wines and German BMWs. Has it dropped against the Japanese Yen? If not, why not? We can only go further if you answer this.

16. Finally, I concluded that instead of being angry support the best game in town that is being played by Musharraff.

Yes he's playing a good game, but he will lose.

Regards.

#119 Posted by ijaz_gul
#120 Posted by hamidm2

I am kind of surprised at your insistence on using the Praetorian model in Egypt and Syria. They are not the only models. Think about Turkey, Spain or South American states of the sixties or even the Thailand of today!
Here is a simplest definition of Praetorian state and you can stretch it to any length.

“A modern Praetorian state is one in which the army tends to intervene and potentially could dominate the political system”

Every country has its own characteristics and when we use a model, we need to make necessary adjustments based on the local situations. The Pak army is a classical example in just the way it operates. Its coterie may have different characteristic than Syrian and the Egyptian armies which drive their smugness from the Baathist brand of Arab Nationalism.

In Egypt and Syria they use nationalism for pulling their bandwagon. In Pakistan the generals had attempted to use the Muslim and the Islamic ideology. They may not be close to the Islamic lifestyle in person, but they certainly make use of it when needed. Pay attention to when Musharaf calls Suicide Bombers as not Muslim and avoids calling them inhuman or criminals!

The army’s interests bind them together and since the benefit of a collective army interests are passed on to the lower officers’ cadre, they too hook up with the top Generals in supporting the structure that the army in Pakistan has created over the last fifty years. The Officers that retire from the junior ranks such as Major, Captain or even Lt. Cols look for future employment in the army supported organizations or use their army connections to get to the other civilian outfits. I am not saying that the army officers don’t deserve a job or other money benefits after retirement, but they look to the army to create situations for them.
So their interests are heavily tied with what the generals do.

Try radically changing the Pak army and you will see where most of the resistance would come from. Instead of radical actions, if you just attempt to reform the system, the army general and all officers would be up in arms. This army takes it personally when a PM dismisses the COAS legitimately. Did you hear a peep from any army officer against the 1999 coup even privately?

How do you change an army where every officer would be ready to protect his privileges?

“Coming to the reference of my post, would soldiers die in an ambush because they want to protect MilInc.?”

The answer is a resounding Yes! They have done it in the past. In your zest to find some redemption for the army officers you are ignoring the Pak army’s history. The conscripts have on more than one occasion, fired on people to protect the Army interests.

Do you really think that the army leaves any room in the conscript training to become a conscientious objector?
Thousands of Pakistan (and Indian) army conscripts deserted during both 1965 and 71 wars and those deserters were not conscience motivated!

Pardesi ji, all that's happening is that a new managerial paradigm is being put in place. It took time to 'perfect' single-location assembly plant, then to manage single-country multi-location plants, etc.

Additionally, the thing about leveraging 'other' people's resources is that it is only better utilization of ONE'S OWN resources, be they be military (as in medievalistic times), mercantile, or simple intellectual. Only mentioning this so people (not you, of course) don't immediately conclude cruel/unjustified 'exploitation of others'.

Re: # 133 Arjun

Example is fine to illustrate multiple sources and that was the intent of the post.

Not a good example in project management. BTW, they have the new manager now.

#131 Posted by Pardesi on December 26, 2007 9:12:28 am


You must have seen an article in WSJ couple of weeks back on Boeing’s Dreamliner and how parts from about 15-20 countries are sourced to build the plane.


I read that article. The delay in the dreamliner was attributed to troubles with sourcing parts from 15-20 countries..not the best example..


Boeing Scrambles to Repair Problems With New Plane
By J. Lynn Lunsford
Word Count: 2,190 | Companies Featured in This Article: Boeing, European Aeronautic Defence & Space, Finmeccanica, Onex, All Nippon Airways

EVERETT, Wash. -- On Tuesday, Boeing Co. will give Wall Street a progress report on its 787 Dreamliner, as it scrambles to overcome a six-month delay in producing the new jet. A look inside the project reveals that the mess stems from one of its main selling points to investors -- global outsourcing.