Afghanistan - A Strategic Analysis

interesting discussion .keep it up sir.

Ijaz sahib,

Re: 375

Can't think of anything else. But I am really intrigued. If you cant share it in the open you can PM it to me.

Regards

Amin sahib,

(Without US help there would be no Pakistan.)

I dont quite agree here. With nukes in place, Pakistan is absolutely safe from its only EXTERNAL enemy, India. The only immediate threat are non-state actors ie the Pakistani Talibs (PTs) but I dont see them strong enuff to seriously threaten the Pak state.

Yes, there is a real long danger if Pakistan continues to neglect nation-building and development of institutions and failing to address the aspirations of its people.'

Regards

Re: # 374
No majumdar. This is impossible and even a rougue country would not do it. Think more?

Ijaz,

Thanks. I thot all of that post was your views.

(As for active nuclear deterrence, I do not have to write everything. Think? )

I presume you are suggesting smuggling nukes to the Talibs, right?

Ahmedmadani sahib,

(Pak us is like man and his wife )

Yes, US is the man, Pak is his wife. And unfortunately they are always in the missionary position.

(Indian army must be having night mares)

Paks wud lick Injuns even without nukes, sir. As we know one Momin = ten bhindis. It is a matter of time b4 Injun Army quits Kashmir, Arjun mian will give you the timetable.

Regards

Re: # 366 pakistan cannot survive without USA at least in the present set up.

USA is just like English East India Company.Without US help there would be no Pakistan.Balkanisation is a reality , no conspiracy theory.Bangladesh was a liability for pakistan but without sindh balochistan and the pashtun areas pakistan to india will be what bhutan is to india.these are hard facts.

Re: # 370
Are high dams like Mangla or Tarbela allowed to be attacked by nukes in Modern Warfare? Can they break them or it will be wastefull blast. Sui Gas fileds can be atomic targets ?
Somebody in war law can answer

Re: # 368 i wish that we can discuss this by e mail. you know that i respect you personally and intellectually.

Re: # 365
Generally india/ PK is always short affair. Bungla desh was even did not go too long. Now it will can be even shorter as use of nuclear attack on india can be over in 15 minutes.
Can now american army going to give more airgun ships/ great mobility will breakk back of antipakistani people?

Re: # 366 Nukes are for India, not for A.stan or America or Pakistani Talibs.They are meant to kill indinas not americans , america and china are best friends. Pak us is like man and his wife , they quarrel but always live together as both sides can atlest blame each other for failures.
Rockets are already designed to destroy indian cities , as they are city bursters and thermonuclear bombs with eash capacity in Mega Tons , indian bombs are in kilo tons. And Pakistan is in envyable position as both China and usa depend on pakistan and not other way.
With coming age of Joint Fighter -JF-17 Pk air superiority is now well established and now fleets of F-16 coming usa. nO AIR SUPERIORITY IS WITH paf AS WAS HISTORICALLY.Also PK missiles are on good trains and they run on tracks atlest 12 hours so mobile. Indian army must be having night mares

As for active nuclear deterrence, I do not have to write everything. Think?

Re: # 366
Most of my post is analysis.
The last line in parenthess is my view.
The army still feels it can deliver. They do not percieve the threat the way you or most of us do. Nonetheless, their peace overtures in North Waziristan do indicate that there is some thought going on.

Ijaz sahib,

(Pakistan has an active nuclear deterrence and any strike would be foolhardy. )

A deterrence against whom? Paki missiles can hit only India, A'stan or Iran and I dont see why Pakis wud want to retaliate against either for an American invasion and even if that is their response I dont see the Yanks losing sleep over a few million Injuns, Afghans and Iranians getting fried.

(The most important precursor to these chain of events is to disgrace the Army.)

The Army has done enuff to disgrace itself, it does not require American intervention.

Regards

as far as i can assess the pakistani generals it will be an easy affair to denuclearise pakistan.

the main threat to USA and its Atlantic allies is from the non state actors.The stamina or the lack of it of Pakistan Army was well demonstrated in 1971 and in Kargil and now in Waziristan.

I met at least three general officers who agreed with major part of the assertions made in the article.

Any plan to denuclearise pakistan will have surprise as the main element.

if anyone reads General Shazli's book he would understand how Soviet help was crucial in making the egyptians confront israel.although still militarily 1973 war was an Israeli victory.

Vietnam without Soviet help could not have defeated USA.The list is long but i am quite busy with other serious matters.

HP

My friend we will discuss things sometimes.Thanks for all your interacts.They are definitely thought provoking.

5 Minutes over Islamabad.
Threat projected + Threat Perceived = Cognitive Construct
Reaction to this Cognitive Construct is directly proportional to the degree of control in decision making.

Threat Projected.
Since the late 80s, Think Tanks dominated by USA began to raise the bogey of an Islamic Bomb. Pakistan was placed under sanctions but even in those days, the inflation was lower and standard of living better. The CPI was far better than today. Pakistan was called a failed state, likely to be declared as abetting terrorism. US think Tanks coined statements like Ugly Stability. As Pakistan got closer to improve its delivery systems, there were deliberate leaks like an Israeli Threat most likely in concert with India. A scare was created about the two missing Soviet Brief Cases and that Pakistan Nuclear material may fall into the hands of hard-line Islamists, later graduated to Taliban &Al Qaida. At the same time stories of proliferation, some true and most unsubstantiated continued to make rounds in the official dossiers. This clutter of propaganda was reinforced by formal studies and war games in which Pakistan was projected as a grey country mainly because of nuclear/terrorism issues and the swinging emotions of the anti American public. During this entire chatter, US State Department maintained good relations with Pakistan through its defence diplomacy (CENTCOM). Pakistan was lumped with the Centcom while India remained within the sphere of Pacific Command. Then came 9/11.

Threat Perceived
For a long time, Pakistani policy makers remained oblivious to these threats as if they fell on deaf years. The Doctrines of 'Strategic Depth', 'Strategic Defiance' and 'Nexuses of Three Asia' made the Pakistan defence establishment feel very important and secure. These doctrines were reinforced with the misplaced concept of Ummah and its ability to unify. However, there remained a school that saw these threats in tangible terms and advocated moderation of Taliban, a higher political ante rather than militancy in Kashmir. The dominating hawks were un deterred by these threats, evident in the manner that Kargil Operations were launched. They lived in their own bubbled paradigm and then took control of the country. The same elements that fought in Afghanistan and Kashmir were given a free hand inside Pakistan who took on people of rival sects and religions.

9/11 brought a realisation that things had gone too far. The genie was out of the bottle. The U Turn that was taken lacked any transition policy to reign in these elements. In many a cases, their handlers were equally indoctrinated and policy shift became difficult. As a first reaction, many churches were attacked and people massacred. However, the message fell on deaf years in USA, who saw an opportunity to occupy Afghanistan. India was used to mobilise Pakistan Army on the Eastern Front and the fronts effectively reversed. Much of the threat was now becoming real.

The threat now perceived revolves around decapitating Pakistan and redrawing of Borders. Pakistani Security establishment is convinced that Intelligence agencies of USA, Afghanistan, India and perhaps Iran through the Northern Alliance are all involved in the tribal areas. They are suspicious of cooperation with USA. This is what I term as GREY created by agencies.

As to 5 Minutes over Islamabad? It is no Baghdad. Pakistan has an active nuclear deterrence and any strike would be foolhardy. The Americans know it. The only plausible scenario is if these systems are likely to fall into the hands of militants and the government of Pakistan agrees to such an intervention. That is why there is so much international chatter on this scenario meant to un nerve the military establishment. The most important precursor to these chain of events is to disgrace the Army.

"Whether there is a genuine effort to offset this perception is any one’s guess".

Cheerios