Afghanistan - A Strategic Analysis

#437 Posted by ijaz_gul

"Both Napoleon's Army and Geraman Armies were decimated because they operated on Exterior Lines and also the harsh Russian winter."

Yes, there are many angles and people have written volumes about this. We obviously can only cover the basics in our posts.
I don't read military histories any more but I would say to you that don't apply the winter theory so casually. It might have been the case with the Napolean's army but the Germany fought more than one winter in Russia.

German's suffered from indecisions, poor communications and infighting between the army commanders in Berlin. There were many factors and as I said the tide turned in the Soviet favor after the US suplies and the German's suffered from their own supply and gas shortages issues.

This subject is so vast that a few posts are not enough to justify any claim.

Re: # 431
Mr T... Please do not say mr. Cavalry as ignorant. He is absolutely correct if he said the north african campaign or D day business or battles in southern Europe were minor importance compared to eastern front.
As said victors write history and make movies, systematically the earstern front war was not projected as as important compared to little actions on anglo american side.
Never has in history was such number assembled on easternfront, 3 million men , battle hardened german army and airforce.Even Hitler himself told his generals "when Borborossa begins world will hold breathe". He lined up his three million men along eastern border and expected to deafeat russia in 6 weeks but after 3 years of devastating battles his forces met final defeat in freezing streets of Leningrad, stanlingrad and Moscow. Initially advanc was so swift and fast when Russians called their more experienced generals from namely timoshenko and Zukov , they could not believe when they looked at maps where they will stand up and fight. All german armies were sriking distance in north towards leningrad, they were advancing towards moscow, German have moved swiftly through Ukrane and towards south russian and looking at possible advances on Baku. At same time russian forces were facing Imperial Japanese forces on their far east front. ( fortunately for russia they had devasted japanese army when incursion occured on soviet terrotary). So their siberian troops were pinned in east due fear of japanese army stationed and watching russian moves.
Purposely AngloAmericans were engaged on minor fronts away from france but in North Africa. Russians were asking allies to open some front in Europe to relieve some pressure on them , even supplies were token sybolic than of any use.
Russians fought single handedly nazi and stop them front of moscow, stanlingrad, Leningrad.
From there on Russian started directing war as they wanted and German in reactive mode. The final offensive on easterfront by german was at Krusk salient, biggest tank battle in world history and German lost and they lost initiyuve once for all.Last german winter offensive matched by red armies counter offensive and and it was stalemate with advantage on russian side.
Now the final outcome was already clear and Russians were going to kill german army without help from angloamericans.
Then it was just hard time advancing.
But Final outcome was clear then only angloamericans started their moves. Honestly they started to move as they wanted to have "western Europe" otherwise without any efforts of anglo americans they red army will have come to france.
Ten 10% of russian population about 22million people died but not in vain,the country was devastated. Not only russian army but russian people fought hard every way. Let us not diminish the sacrafice done by russians.
You may read book by Alexzander worth "Russia at war" or by German side which gives quite operational details by german side by German army man "Paul Elrich" Operation Barborossa.
Surprisingly most german writers condier major battles/ war as Easternfront, even german officer who wrote later give full credit to red army for defeating them show great respect for their skills and sacrafices.

It is not necessary to demean the greatest contribution made towards liberation from nazi forces by russians. Being american does not mean one has to follow "party line". You need to read and what Mr. Masadi is angry towards you as he does not like you "Partyline".

( so it was laughable when ZAB bragged about Dakka will defended as Stalingrad. Over exggration has limits )

Mr.Masadi and Mr. Cavalary both right in this matter.
Generally I have no good knowledge about most things, but I felt you are wrong so I wrote.
Have good day

It was aqreed strategy of allies that Germany was the main threat.Japan was a secondary player.

Allied strategy against Germany was to aid the USSR to tie down maximum German forces.True that the USSR was armed by US aid but also true that the USSR did maximum fighting.The allies once they attacked France were just confronting a very small portion of German forces while bulk of German forces were committed against Russia.Only 10 out of 100 killed in allies were British or German.

I am sorry for some mistakes. I am re posting.

Re: # 434
HP,
WW-II
I agree with you on the USA/SU point. I would add that as far as USSR is concerened, Terrain and Weather have always been a Blessing for Russians. Both Napoleon's Army and German Armies were decimated because they operated on Exterior Lines and also the harsh Russian winter. In both cases, the armies crossed the Culminating Points well short of objectives and the friction added to their woes. Thereafter, it was survival.
Militancy in NWFP
I would partially agree. In tactics, there is something known as Engagement on a Broad Front. Insurgents can do it much easily through small numbers. This helps them keep the army Dispersed all over from SWS to Swat. What the army loses is the 'Concentration of Force and Effort'.
I do not that agree that the army is fighting on both sides, though I agree someone is. Most probably, these are the intelligence agencies that I call GREY.
Cheerios

Waziristan

www.orbat.com



Normally the article below by Major AH Amin (Pakistan Army, Retired) would be in ANALYSIS. But because of the importance of the topic, we're printing it here. For those unfamiliar with Major Amin: he writes for a Pakistani audience and readers may find some of his references a bit oblique. We've explained best we can. He is very sharp spoken, without dissimulation or politeness. His acerbic characterization of Pakistani intelligence is, alas, all too common among the world's intelligence agencies. As for his attack on Pakistan Army tactics, the same can be said of many armies we need not name.



Waziristan is the testing ground, the acid test of Pakistan Army's worth in the so- called war against terrorism.

What is the Pakistani intelligence ? An intelligence operative stated that they don't have the guts to go out of a fort of FC in Waziristan. They meekly step out of a Qila (fort) and stop some truck drivers and ask what's going on. From what they scramble all the guys from Military Intelligence, the ISI , the Corps Intelligence and the FC Intelligence sit down and make a generally similar report. The guy who compares all reports in GHQ jumps with joy when he sees all these reports and states that all reports can be cross checked and are correct. There is the Sab Accha mentality since Mughal times. Sab Accha means All Correct. So in the final summing it is gleefully concluded that the writ of the Pakistani Government is established in all parts of tribal areas! Glory be to Allah.

I recently met some mid-ranking and major-general level army officers and discussed Waziristan with them. We concluded:

Waziristan is a case of clash of interests among ambitious officers trying to get a good chit (report) and serious regimental officers who see soldiering as a way of life. The fast-track guys want to bash up some villages with artillery fire and do some dog catching for Americans and improve their career index called OEI.

The first major disaster was Lt.-Gen. Safdar, a Punjabi and a careerist. He wanted a fast-track approach for the problem, .His policy was bomb everyone, kill everyone and get the feathers in the cap for being a conqueror. This was counter-productive. The armed forces lost all credibility in this area. Safdar was finally packed off to the post of director logistics in the army Headquarters a post seen as waiting area for dumped generals.

Lieutenant General Hamid Khan, a Pashtun armored corps officer from 11 Cavalry was not effective. During his tenure the army was neither here nor there. He was serving for most of the time when the Waziristan accord had been signed.

The present corps commander Masud Aslam was a Kargil Warrior! (Major Amin is not being complimentary.) He again tried to introduce the Safdar policy with disastrous results.

One Major General level divisional commander stood out. Strangely it was a Shia officer, Major General Mir Haider. Although a Punjabi he understood the Pasthun psyche and did well. His modus operandi was psy war. Healing the tribal eg . Gifting copies of Holy Quran.

Another Major General Sahi was a failure. Again he was using the Safdar approach. Kill , batter , destroy and bomb. Sahi had close links with the Quisling PML (President Musharraf's political party: the writer believes Pakistan has sold out to the Americans) as his brother was a politician from that party. In words of a direct participant officer, he was also a total failure. He was finally packed off as commandant of infantry school. Another resting place of dumped generals. In his dining out he said that he had established writ of Pakistani Government in Waziristan and was corrected there and then by a serving army officer that this was a white lie. He was challenged that he could not drive with his GOC's flag from Miran Shah to Bannu even with an escort! He was infamous in the Frontier Corps Officers for trying to prod them to attack this village or that because he wanted to get a good chit from his bosses.

A serving army officer in that area compared Pakistan Army and the FC in Waziristan to a mouse running from point A to point B while he said that the tribals were the lazy cat watching this despicable mouse.

We further concluded:

The great danger is not Pakistan but the fall-out after its demise.

The great danger to the West is not the hopeless Pakistani state but non-state actors

The more Pakistani Don Quixotes are proved to be spineless clowns in Waziristan, the more dangerous the situation becomes.

Warfare has become cheap. It is easy to rock the boat and non-state actors are good at this.

The front is unclear. The distinction between friend and foe unclear.

My assessment is that if the Americans decide to knock out Pakistan , in strategic terms , there will be no resistance in Punjab and Sindh ,only the Pashtuns will be their adversaries and the settled area Pashtuns will be as hopeless as the Punjabis and Sindhis.

Pakistan's military and political establishment is simply hopeless. This theme is discussed in my article "5 minutes over Islamabad" (the article details how the US forced Pakistan to join it's side in the GWOT.) The Pakistani military junta has already lost all credibility with the Pakistani population and cannot control the situation.

Even the Americans will not achieve much if they enter Waziristan. The terrain is bad and Americans will be a good cause for Jihad. The solution is withdrawal from Waziristan and regime change in Pakistan. The Americans should let the hopeless Paki politicians do the dirty job of all this.

As an officer who served in Pakistan Army I would sum up the situation as following:

The Pakistani High Command a Punjabi-Mohajir (Mohajirs are Pakistans who migrated from India to the new country of Pakistan in/after 1947) team lacks the grey matter or resolve to deal with the tribals.

The troops they are commanding have lost faith in the cause they are fighting for. This is the worst thing for an army.

All said and done the tribals can be dealt politically. Any Pakistani officer who is posted as commander 11 Corps is a job seeker. He is trying to be a Napoleon and a Punjabi cannot be a Napoleon with a tribal!

The present Governor of NWFP Owais Ghani has already miserably failed in Baluchistan. He is regarded as a non-Pashtun as he is the hated Hindko Punjabi (we dont know what Hindko means; Hind generally refers to India) speaking from Peshawar city just like General Kakar, whose first cousin he is.

The whole situation requires a change in command in Pakistan from top to bottom.

Re: # 434
HP,
WW-II
I agree with you on the USA/SU point. I would add that as far as USSR is concerened, Terrain and Weather have always been a Blessing for Russians. Both Napoleon's Army and Geraman Armies were decimated because they operated on Exterior Lines and also the harsh Russian winter. In both cases, the armies fell well short of the culminating points and the friction added to their woes. Thereafter, it was survival.
Militancy in NWFP
I would partially agree. In tactics, there is something known as Engagement on a Broad Front. Insurgents can do it much easily through small numbers. This helps them keep the army Dispersed all over from SWS to Swat. What the army loses is the 'Concentration of Force and Effort'.
I do that agree that the army is fighting on both sides, though I agree someone is. Most probably, these are the intelligence agencies that I call GREY.
Cheerios

Re: # 431 you need to read basic military history.The Japanese aim was not to conquer India but to secure their Western side by denying British air bases.

Again your knowledge of military history is rudimentary.The maximum share of fighting in WW 2 was done by Red Army who suffered some 90 % of all casualties suffered in total by allies.

The allies were able to land in France only after the Soviets had inflicted severe losses on the Germans.

British and American casualties were far smaller than Russians since they did very less part of the fighting.

My sincere advice to you is to read history . See what the facts are and rthen post your views.

No bitter feelings.This is just a friendly advice.

Re: # 420

Harimau,


"Rather than completing high school, Albert decided to apply directly to the ETH Zurich, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland. Without a school certificate, he was required to take an entrance examination, which he did not pass."

"In his early teens, Albert attended the new and progressive Luitpold Gymnasium. His father intended for him to pursue electrical engineering, but Albert clashed with authorities and resented the school regimen. He later wrote that the spirit of learning and creative thought were lost in strict rote learning."


ROTE learning:- Your forte

#427 Posted by iron_mask
If you read my posts, you will realize that I have been saying this all along. The Pak army is fighting on the both sides. Jihadi are just a front of the Pak army.

Something I am paying attention too and trying to figure out is: It appears to me that same groups fight in Swat and then they move to Derra or Waziristan and the other areas. There is never a fight in all those areas simultaneously.

Appears to me that they have assignments to go to Swat one week, Waziristan the other and Derra the next week.

I see a pattern emerging but I will really have to monitor it for couple more weeks to get to some conclusion.

What asadi and Pavo are posting here is the conventional view of the war. Which picks up from the SU propaganda machine.

Tahmed has US centric view. The reality is some where in the middle. I had posted about the SU participation in that war some time ago if I can find it now I will post it again.

As Dada said the SU and Germany had a pact which really was a betrayal of the socialist ideology and of course was the result of the Nationalism on the Russian part than the Socialist ideals that were used to sell that deal. In fact, that deal screwed up many progressives around the world and Indian National congress and the CPI made serious error when they accepted the soviet line for that truce.

Any ways, Though the SU put its people as fodder in that war, things did not change until the USA began its arms shipments to the Russians and eventually those shipments turned the tide in the SU favor. Before that it was a hopeless war for the SU. Now let us not undermine the scarifies that the Russians made during the war but the reality is that Stalin fked up big time and caused so much of human misery when he failed to see Germany's real ambitions and signed a deal for his shortsighted nationalistic ends.
There is no denying that the Russians and others made scarifies but some of them were the results of the foolish political leadership of Stalin and the CPSU.

#416 Posted by tahmed32

true - ... I rest my case.

Yes I think that's a good idea. The conquests, colonization, neo-colonization, and now the globalization is all nothing but "Manifest Destiny".

pavocavalry: True that the eastern front was a vast front. But surely a man of your knowledge cannot be unaware of the rest of the war (in the Atlantic, in North Africa, in western europe after D-Day, not to mention the massive aerial bombardment of german industry).

Also, I do not expect a man of your astute judgement to make such an absurd statement as to claim that the Japanese were going to stop at kohima. Also, I do not expect a military expert like you to think that the Chinese had any presence in the Pacific at all. Unless you tell me that the Battle of Midway was won by communist frogmen while the US got all the credit. Or that the Battle of Leyte Bay was fought by Philipino communist guerillas...

Amin sahib,

Re: 429

Germany cud not have been defeated without all the allies USA, USSR and UK fighting together. No question about that. And if USA chooses to ignore USSR's role, I am sure in the Soviet days, their historians would have glossed over the role of the Western powers.

And as Tahmed sahib rightly points out, Japan was almost single handedly beaten by USA with USSR actually not violating its treaties with Japan till Germany was beaten.

Regards

Re: # 412 The issue is not as simple as this . American money and industry supplied the allies but the 90 % fighting against Nazi Germany was done by the Red Army.More than 300 German formations were committed against Red Army.

In case of Japan it was never the Japanese plan to invade India apart from some local incursions at Kohima which was not part of larger Japanese plan.

Even in Pacific the largest portion of Japanese Army were committed against Chinese Nationalist and Communists , some 80 Japanese division.The main military aim of the Jap attack on Burma was denying the British the air bases to attack Singapore.

Re: # 419 The topping of the cake has come now in the shape of the news that Darra Adam Khel insurgency is manned by the six jihadi outfits that his department and the agencies once used in India, and the six include some who are still “protected” by the intelligence agencies as an “option” against India. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008/01/30/story_30-1-20 08_pg3_1


I see you got here earlier.

Interestingly, there is another interpretation here - that is Dramabazi.....to see how much Musharuff can winkle out of the west. Worked before and should workout even now.

Re: # 425 talking of facts - here is an article on a variation of the wolf story

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008/01/30/story_30-1-200 8_pg3_1

Majumadar bhayya, Mian Masadi Nawabzadeh has all the facts, figures and data at his finger tips. Its a question of when he wants to marshal them. In this case he has a blind-spot.