An Agenda for the New Government

I have posted a new ilog, your contribution in the form of e-mail or other addresses of relevant figures would be appreciated...

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Re: # 66

lead,

The PM is simply insane, he is anti everything that pakistan has been doing, and another military coup is not far away.

Re: # 67

Ladduji,

Just a trivial question. Your vanavasam came to an abrupt end?

I think an as an idolator the agenda has been set for me by the new government.

1. They would deal wiht terror so that momeen casualities are down and momeens do not kill momeens!!

2. They would now try and push these frustrated jehadis to idolator and kafir lands so that they do not kill momeens in Palistan.

3. To avoid implosion of Pakistan the PAki momeen leaders are trying to explode and give way to the jehadis to kill kafirs by helping them fulfil the aspirations of kashmiris and other momeens.

So, I see more support to jehadis. An this is going to create a deadly situation of implosion and explosion!!!


I hope Paki momeens have learnt a lesson by playing with jehadi fire or by "supporting" the jahadis are ready to play again with fire and they have a death wish!

As it is said - Visnashkaale Vipareet Buddhi!! (when the end approaches of a man his wisdom flees on its own.)

Democracy poses a threat vicariously to the military, them being the sum total of what constitutes of Pakistan to date, as democracy is actually the undoing of Pakistan, if not all Third World nations. Previously the military have bailed out Pakistan following its democratic misadventures, but I have a feeling that this instance may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Taking into consideration the global and regional situation, the current political and economic climate along with the fact that the Pakistani civilian leadership consists essentially of criminals, it is fair to say Pakistan is not very likely to survive this democracy.

Future of pakistan

Nawaz will align more with the jihadis

More targeted killings of PPP workers and leaders

Nawaz will withdraw support to govt once mushy leaves

In the re-election Nawaz will align with PML- Q and the jihadis

A military coup following Nawaz victory, instigated by the yanks.

Ferozk,

Surrendering FATA to the jihadis is the easy part. Already most of the predators attacks have been interpreted as explosion of ammunition stored in such houses. The problem is that the FATA jihadis are supported by a steady stream of support from teh rest of pakistan, partly in the form of haven for the stolen cars, and progressively as an operating base for the bank robers.

The recent suicide attacks and the killing of the genrals and the military men have shown that teh FATA based guys can create havoc through out pakistan.

There is no doubt that the new govt has no options, nor the military has.
The situation is similar to kargill, the military started the process and found teh situation unmanageable, called in the politicians to spell out the surrender terms.

Unconditional military withdrawal from FATA. The problem will be if there are predator attacks, the jihadis will blame it on the pak military, and they will become the targets. It is a total loss situation for the pak govt and the army.

re: majumdar

Article 6 of the 1973 Pakistan constitution states that anyone held responsible and found guilty for subverting the constitution, will face a death penalty. There is no stated constitutional provision for converting such a penalty (that I am aware of) into a life sentence, though such could be amended if so desired by the executive and the legislative branches. This, at least, is the theory and we all know, in Pakistan, theory hardly ever materializes into reality.

As to Musharraf being tried to discourage future Bonpartists, that would depend if you have the means to carry this process to its logical terminal end. Chest beating and sounding brave on the air waves is one thing, taming the army to allow this process; the process of putting one of it's former chiefs on trial, is the real challenge. Musharraf may have shed his uniform and Kiyani may have been distancing the army from the presidency, but will the army still remain committed to the so-called democracy, when that democracy poses an institutional threat to the military itself?

At this stage of the analysis, I must fully concur with Masadi. There are external based interests, which may not allow this possibility and yes; I am talking about the United States' strategic foreign policy goals, or what Masadi calls as the "US elites". The United States, historically speaking, has favored working with the bureaucratic-military complex in Pakistan (to borrow a phrase from Dwight Eisenhower) than it has with a civilian government and there is no emperhical evidence to suggest a paradigm shift in that assessment based on past historic experience.

There is a papable fear in Pakistan from speaking out against Al Qaeda and there is a very strong indication that this goverment may well appease Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban by ceding FATA to them in exhange of "peace" in Pakistan itself. Pakistani civilian politicans are afraid of speaking the truth about the presence of Al Qaeda in Pakistan and to divert attention, they espouse popularism.

However, there is no written gurantee that terrorism in Pakistan will stop if this government gives up FATA but the United States' fear, and for which they came to apprise themselves, was that the present Pakistani government seems to be headed towards a "Munich Agreement" with the militants. The fact that such an agreement might well be the final death knell of Pakistan is immaterial to the United States, but what is of concern to them is their interests inside Afghanistan and their ability to protect those interests - read military logistics, which need Pakistani cooperation in order to be sustained.

Thus, the question. Will the United States allow the democratic process in Pakistan to undermine its regional intrests?

The answer seems to be a "no".

FATA of Pakistan has developed into a linchpin of American military operations inside Afghanistan and that is why, there is a growing realization inside United States' foreign policy decision making circles that critical battles in GWOT that will influence the strenghtening of United States' regional interests, will be fought inside FATA and Pakistan.

The United States' strategic interests will always take precedence over individual choices/policies and likewise, Obama or Clinton or McCain will still target and bomb FATA if that is in American interests regardless of whether there is a Musharraf in power or not or if there is a military or a civilian government in Islamabad.

Presently, the United States is quiety observing the developing political scene inside Pakistan, and suggesting to the new government that a policy, which encourages a lessening of Pakistan's role in GWOT is not necessarily the best solution. One has to remember that Pakistan can ill afford to follow a policy, which basically amounts to one of isolationism from the GWOT, because Pakistan does not have the capacity to sustain such a policy for the long term.

Pakistan's economy is dependent on foreign aid and all of its debts were rescheduled on the promise of its contributions in the GWOT and therefore, Pakistan can be financially squeezed to make it cry "uncle" should the need warrant itself in the future.

At this stage, the crux of the matter is what Masadi said in the past and with which I tend to agree and that is; in the larger scheme of things, Musharraf's fate is immaterial to the final equation and putting him on trial might be pointless unless and until, we can are also capable of removing the United States' influence from Pakistan and being economically and political independent from the United States' and from its global strategic interests.

Therefore, Majumdat sahib, in order to discourage future Bonapartist in Pakistan, you have to discourage the institutions that support them. Punishing people, who act as spokespersons for such institutions, may gain a sense of popular retribution but will achieve nothing in the long run and the words from the Eagles song, it would all have been "a wasted time".

Ciao

Cheema sahib,

I am not an expert in legal matters but my limited understanding is:

Mush's coup was an act of treason.
Pakistan has death penalty (as max) for treason.

But it does not have to come to that. It cud be life imprisonment or maybe whatever punishment is given, Parliament can give a pardon with riders (say a life long exile). Whatever it is due process of law shud be followed and seen to be followed as such.

Regards

Re: # 59; Majumdar bhai,

Sorry can't stay for long. After reading yours and masadi sahib's comments, I think it makes some sense.

I know I did say in No:12 that may be Musharraf should be left alone. I am not in favour of capital punishment but the idea of associating these "off-the-peg military coups", with some repercussions in the future is not a bad one.

I have read some other recent interacts by Masadi Sahib as well; I don't agree with the contents in entirety but a lot of it (as far as my humble understanding goes) makes some sense. I also like the, at times, refreshingly direct approach! A significant proportion of the force of an argument can sometimes be lost in the subtlties of political correctness!

Must dash.

Cheers

Re: # 59; Majumdar bhai,

Sorry can't stay for long. After reading yours and masadi sahib's comments, I think it makes some sense.

I know I did say in No:12 that may be Musharraf should be left alone. I am not in favour of capital punishment but the idea of associating these "off-the-peg military coups", with some repercussions in the future is not a bad one.

I have read some other recent interacts by Masadi Sahib as well; I don't agree with the contents in entirety but a lot of it (as far as my humble understanding goes) makes some sense. I also like the, at times, refreshingly direct approach! A significant proportion of the force of an argument can sometimes be lost in the subtlties of political correctness!

Must dash.

Cheers

Feroze,

For once I disagree with you and agree with Masadi sahib. There has to be a clean break with the past. Mush has to be impeached and put on (a just and fair) trial for treason. To send out a warning to future Bonapartes more than settling scores. Else, future military adventurism cannot be ruled out.

Regards

feroz writes "National reconcilation means forgetting the past and not embarking on another witch hunt! :)"

National reconciliation does not mean that the status quo be enhanced. Musharraf is the Army's excrement (sh**), he needs to go, the new parliment needs to elect a new President and the Army and its sh** needs to get the hell out of political affairs...Any remnant of the military and its influence in the political arena means more of the same and time for that has run out...

#51 ferozk: Rejecting musharraf's convenient assumption that he was above the Constitution is a "witch-hunt"? You have a strange definition of a "witch-hunt", illustrious sir. :-)

#52 by bulleya

americans should have not gone into afghanistan.....

Isn't it amazing how you always seem to get things right..so what if it is way AFTER the event has actually occurred? Remember how you were itching to give up your career in IT and join the invasion of Afghanistan? You might think you're Nostradamus, but a more appropriate name would be Postradamus, given how you predict (or is it post-dict?) things after they have happened.

Re: # 53

Zeemax
Nau Gyara Bahana hai,
Afghanistan Thhikana hai,
Pakistan Nishana hai!

ye ab hamara gana hai
basta naya banana hai
hum nai school jana hai
zeemax aik zanana hai