The Non-Existent Tourist’s Guide To Pakistan

Pracha sahib,

Poke fun at Untidy Satans; why fry your Motherland in the pan? Here's food for thought....

The Fading American Economy:

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy lost 98,000 private sector jobs in March, half of which were in manufacturing. Today 13,643,000 Americans are employed in manufacturing, of which 9,849,000 are production workers.

Government employs 22,387,000 Americans, 8,744,000 more than manufacturing. Even the category leisure and hospitality employs 13,682,000 Americans, slightly more than manufacturing. There are as many waitresses and bartenders as production workers.

Wholesale and retail trade employ 21,467,000 Americans. Professional and business services employ 18,036,000 Americans of which 8,368,000 are in administrative and waste services. Education and health services employ 18,699,000 Americans.

Financial activities employ 8,228,000 Americans. The information sector employs 3,010,000. Transportation and warehousing employ 4,532,000. Construction employs 7,338,000, and natural resources, mining and logging employ 751,000. Other services such as repair, laundry, and membership associations employ 5,516,000 Americans.

This is the portrait of the US economy according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is an economy in which government is the largest employer. Manufacturing employment comprises just under 10% of total employment and about 12% of private sector employment. Everything else is services, and not particularly high level services.

Is this a portrait of a super economy?

To help answer the question, consider that US imports in 2007 were 17% of US GDP, according to the National Income and Product Account tables provided by the Bureau of Economic Affairs. In contrast, the BEA industry tables show that in 2006 (2007 data not yet available) US manufacturing comprised only 11.7% of US GDP.

If US imports actually exceed total US manufacturing output by 5% of GDP, it does not seem possible that the US can close its massive trade deficit. Even if every item manufactured in the US was exported, the US would still have a large trade deficit.

The NIPA and industry tables from which the percentages come are not calculated identically, and I do not know to what extent differences might exaggerate the differences between the percentages. However, it seems unlikely that mere calculation differences would account for US imports exceeding US manufacturing output.

If the US cannot close its trade deficit, it is unlikely that the US dollar can remain the world reserve currency. If the dollar were to lose the reserve currency role, the US government would not be able to finance its annual red ink budget by borrowing from foreigners, as the US saving rate is about zero, and the US would not be able to pay its import bill in its own currency. The rest of the world continues to hold depreciating US currency, because the dollar is the world reserve currency. The dollar is certainly not a good investment having declined dramatically against other traded currencies.

From March 2007 to March 2008 the US economy created 1.5 million new jobs (in services). Legal and illegal immigration and work visas for foreigners exceed US job creation.

During the current school year, 3.3 million high school students are expected to graduate. If we assume that half will go on to college, that leaves 1.6 million entering the work force. College enrollment in 2007 totaled 18 million. If we assume 20% graduate, that makes another 3.6 million job seekers for a total of 5.2 million. Clearly, immigration, work visas, and high school and college graduates exceed the 1.5 million jobs created by the economy. Unless retirements opened up enough jobs for graduates, the unemployment rate has to rise.

The US unemployment rate is creeping up, and according to John Williams, the official unemployment rate greatly understates the real rate of unemployment. Williams has followed the changes that government has made to the official indices over the years in order to spin a more politically palatable picture. Williams uses the original methodology prior to the decades of spin. The original way of measuring unemployment indicates the current rate of unemployment in the US to be 13%, much higher than the 5.1% official number.

Williams also calculates the CPI according to the same way it was officially calculated prior to the recent decades of spin. Williams estimates the current CPI at 12%, three times higher than the official 4% figure.

Williams reports that upward growth biases built into GDP modeling since the early 1980s "have rendered this important series nearly worthless as an indicator of economic activity." Williams estimates that US GDP growth has been in negative territory during almost all of the 21st century. The notion that the US is just now entering a recession is nonsense if we have in fact been in recession for most of the 21st century.

America's post-World War II economic dominance was based on the destruction of other economies by war and socialism. It is a different world now, and Americans have given little thought to the economic challenges of the 21st century.

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Hey greencard-holders, its time to think!

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Re: # 80

masadi saab
( I'd rather be free and unmarketable than a marketable slave)

you mean you donot have to work saab? that is ok saab but what about people who work hard for living saab and make big things saab like the things you use in office saab and planes saab that you travel saab

if no body worked saab then what world will that be saab

may be idiot's paradise saab

later, gotta go have some chai

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Re: # 78

tahmeedi saab is good man saab, he treats peon like human saab

masadi saab talks from backside saab

hamid writes "..... if only you had pursued a more marketable field of study ..."

Precisely, the market awards those who fit in as peons into the current setup, marketability is determined by those in charge of a socio-economic structure and living in their "dream world" comes at great cost, the cost of your soul, your mind, and the dignity of not only your parents, spouse and children but that of your fellow man as well. I'd rather be free and unmarketable than a marketable slave...

Re: # 76

hamidami saab all the good students donot do sociaology saab, they do other things saab

the leftovers do sociaology saab

what is sociaology saab?

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masadi saab why do you always blame the poor peon saab. i do nothing wrong saab just want to have halal ki kamai saab like all the rest saab but you abuse me so much saab

you are an idiot saab who know nothing saab but peon of the west, peon of the west, peon of the west and when you change record it is the US elite, US elite, US elite saab

that is no theory saab, if you have money saab give it to peon saab and the peon will be your peon saab

Re: # 74

masadi mian,

..... if only you had pursued a more marketable field of study insteady of a pseudo science like sociology, you too would have found a few crumbs off the white man's table and wouldn't be so bitter now .... get over it !

#73 hamidm sage-of-the-boondocks: on my being a "spineless moron":

on "spineless": being a eukaryota of the vertebrate sect, i reject your claim that i am spineless.

on "moron": since a man is known by the company he keeps, and since i can be seen daily in the company of these ..er..God's special children..on chowk like yourself and masadi, I plead guilty to being a moron as charged.

hamid writes "..... freedom of speech is okay, but why do we have to suffer this.... this .... person day in and day out ......."

Like I said these p.o.w's shake in their boots because every post of mine (against which they have no rebuttal except ad hominem and calls for censorship) bust their entire "life-world" built around worshipping the white man who give them a few crumbs in exchange for their souls and the dignity of their parents, spouses and children....tahmed is the "ideal type" peon of the West, these others emulate his kind but never approach his intense worship of those that have saved him from a Pakistani existence...

masadi mian,

.... as much as i hate to agree with you, i think you are right on the money in your assessment of tahmed - the man, to quote you, "is a spineless moron" ....

Chowk staff filtered this post from usa today (not Dawn) that I did regarding the Nazims. You all figure out why censoring and banning in this fashion is not injustice:

WARNING
From: chowkstaffTo: masadiDate: Jul 13, 2008 Sun 11:54 pm
Your following post was filtered for objectionable content. For the next 24 hours all your posts will be reviewed before they appear on Chowk. Failure to follow Interact Guidelines may result in your account being suspended.

regarding the Nazims, here is the process of dictator empowered local governments...

"Local governments. Most of the complaints the Election Commission receive involve the meddling of local government officials, known as nazims, in the campaign. Elections in 2005 empowered nazims loyal to Musharraf and the ruling party. Two years ago, the International Crisis Group, a conflict resolution think tank, reported that Musharraf\'s government "rigged local elections … to dominate forthcoming parliamentary elections."

The nazims are "campaigning for their near and dear ones with all the paraphernalia at their disposal — police, vehicles, development projects," Khosa says.

In this dusty town 35 miles southeast of the capital Islamabad, the son of a powerful nazim is running as the ruling party\'s candidate against a Peoples Party incumbent. "The nazim is throwing up electricity poles and saying there will be power after the election," complains Yamin Qureshi, campaign manager for the Peoples Party candidate. "People say, \'We don\'t have water. We don\'t have roads.\' He says, \'Done.\' "

Last week, workers started widening the main thoroughfare and covering an ugly drainage ditch along the curb in what Qureshi sees as a campaign ploy.

"Of course, they\'re lying," counters Ishiaq Chaudhry, a ruling party supporter and friend of the nazim. The projects have nothing to with the election, he says; they were approved months earlier.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-01-02-pakistan-election_N.ht m

Both of you, supersizeme apparently lives in Inglaind, and we know nothing about her domestic arrangements.