A Weak Pakistan is a Threat to Neighbours

and now we come to know that UK and USA anre maintaining contacts with Taliban, an admission that comes when Pakistan has been leaking information on such contacts, and being pressured for contacts itself as such.

And yet there is another strain supported by USA-UK and India fighting inside Pakistan.

Eklevaya,
'So purely in the spirit of making that observation, do you see any basic change in the worldview of Pakistan's External Jihadis?'

In your perception an external Jihadi is one who fights in Afghanistan, Kashmir, Iraq and maybe a few crackers in India.

The Afghan Jihadi was created against the godless communism in pursuit of Brezinski Doctrine. The sunni jihadi was created by them to contain Iran. Inside Pakistan, they became sectarian terrorists.

Kashmiri Freedom Fighter has existed for over 60 years and was a creation of a ficticious intruement of asccesion. At some point in the 80s, some Pakistani Jihadis joined them and many became double agents. So India also joined the recipe.

Iraqi Jihadi is a reaction to the occupation of their land and its a freedom struggle. However, they are beng split on sectarian lines.

Two Jihadis are coming up in India. First the VHP and other rightists playing blood holi in Orissa,Ahmedabad and arsoners of Samjotha Express etc and secondly the fringe Muslims (not sure) blowing crackers created by india itself.
Now if Pakistan weakens, it will be a conduit for export of many of these sentiments to India.

While Zalmay was the special pseudo expert on Afghanistan, India is becoming the advisor on Pakistan affairs which is very dangerous for India itself.

With you ability of drafting theories, I am sure you know all this already and just drawing me in. So have it.

It is not weak or strong Pakistan that matters, it is the de-islaimise (or de-barbarised) Pakistan, that is desirable to both India and US etc...
But can we hope that a country created in the name of Islam and which was housing largest terrorist training centre ( Mosque and Madressah) in it's capital (Red Mosque)....

"Pakistan is too unruly for the world's comfort but not weak enough to invite an intervention. ..."

That makes it even a more compelling reason for dividing Pakistan into 5 pieces.

A nuclear undivided Pakistan provides nuclear shelter for it's Jehadis. Indians realized that afte kargil. Now Americans are realizing this.

We need to isolate the nukes and let it be controlled by secular regions like Sindh Desh and isolate it as a buffer between the Lallu-Punju ullu land of PAki Punjab.
We let Baloch take out the steam off Al Qaeda and Talibans.

Now, the Talibs are isolated and without any where near the nuke trigger.

Then we go for the kill and eliminate all the Talibs and Jehadi mullahs.

In this way we can eliminate Jehadism fom Pakistani land- there is no other way.

In reality a stronger pakistan will be a constant headache for India and a weaker, fragmented Pakistan will be a nightmare for US and rest of the world. We will prefer something in between ..the way it is ....Go Army!! Go Jihadis!!

First Eid greetings to all on this forum.
I think a weaker Pakistan is more dangerous. We must not forget the present Pakistan is plagued with so called jihadis, who has given tough time to one of the most powerful nation of the world USSR and could possibly be one of the reasons which led to the decline of USSR, and those who celebrated their victory, now facing consequences. The mujahadin were born, under the joint sponsorship of the Saudis ,Americans and Pakistan.
We must see that the democratic institution in Pakistan is strengthened and more liberal forces in Pakistan get the voice.  Domestic violence, a troubled North West Frontier Province and a nuclear weapon that could fall into the wrong hands, is enough to make any one see red. A weak Pakistan could turn into a nightmare for the world , unless and until there is a stable, efficient and strong government which can take a stand against terrorism,  ignorance, poverty, corruption and religious fanaticism. Extremists tend to thrive in an environment where the state has retreated and has no program for improvement. A more moderate populace normally might not be sympathetic to radical voices, but, at a loss in times of distress, will listen to their message. Through offering free education and aid distributed through clean schools, compared to the limited contact most have with sub-par government institutions, the leaders of these organizations gain both a receptive audience and evidence of their own superior credentials to lead .
The situation of basic education and healthcare ranges from weak to nonexistent in some parts of the country. This state of affairs has assisted in the process of Islamization as poor people turn to the private education system (madrassas) to provide their children with education, and more importantly, food and clothing. The madrassas, which played a major role in providing willing fighters during the Soviet-Afghan War, have continued to operate and arguably grow.  Poor parents send their children to Islamic schools so that they at least receive some education, it’s the responsibility of any Govt in the World to provide education to its children but in Pakistan ELITE never cared about it. If there is one country with a tragic political tradition, it is Pakistan with its millions of inhabitants. None of its leaders has ever left power voluntarily.
According to voice of America latest news, Analysts and U.S. officials say American pressure on Pakistan over counterterrorism policy has strained the relationship between that country's government and its military. The honeymoon between Pakistan's powerful military establishment and the newly elected civilian government appears to be short-lived. ISI officers who created the Taliban are retired and gone from headquarters, but that Taliban sympathizers are probably still on the payroll as contractors in the field. Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani has promised to keep the army out of politics. But that pledge has been made and broken before in Pakistan. Another breaking and disturbing news is suicide attack on ANP leader Asfand Wali Khan today, although he is not hurt but is enough challenge for present Govt. Pakistan is at the center of a gathering firestorm engulfing south and central Asia in the most volatile confrontation since 9/11. Pakistan, Afghanistan , the US and NATO all bear heavy responsibility for the crisis. The army's policies over the past fateful seven years have led to Pakistan losing much of its territorial sovereignty. Heavily armed militant groups run wild, crime is rampant, paramilitary and police morale has plummeted with a stream of desertions. The country is in the throes of an economic meltdown. Foreign exchange reserves have halved in the past three months to less than $8 billion, inflation runs at 25 percent, power shortages cripple industry and agriculture, and mass unemployment fuels popular resentment. Zardari needs to develop a partnership with the army to fight the terrorists, but so far the army lacks strategy or coherence, one day bombing villages in FATA, the next day announcing cease-fires and offering compensation to militants. It has failed to protect the people of FATA, some 800,000 out of a population of just 3.5 million have fled the region since 2006 - terrified of both the army and the Taliban. Pakistan is too unruly for the world's comfort but not weak enough to invite an intervention. Its people are proud, fiercely resentful of slights and quick to take offence. The best the West can do is tread cautiously, bet nothing on Pakistani democracy and deal with whatever its heated political culture throws up. The solution must be for the West to do what it can to promote stable rule. That means aiding civilian rulers to help tackle the food and fuel crisis, and the poverty that provides a fertile ground for the politics of terrorism. It means convincing them they have as much to gain by the defeat of extremists as the West does. It does not mean finding another military strongman to back in the hope that he can deliver what Mr Musharraf could not.

#15 Posted by Eklavya

(Would you and I take George Bush and American officials at their word and accept their compelling theories? Can outsiders take Zardari and Pakistani officials at their word and accept their theories? Neither would be right.)

“So purely in the spirit of making that observation, do you see any basic change in the worldview of Pakistan's External Jihadis?�

Kaal gone nuts again! How would Ijaz know? Outsiders can’t accept Zardari’s theories and Kaal can’t accept Bush’s theories. Ijaz would have to be insider of the “Pakistan’s external Jihadi� to accept their theories. Otherwise, he too is an outsider for Jihadis.

Unless Kaal in his infinite non-wisdom is implying that Ijaz has inside track!

Ijaz, don't know the answer to your question!

Ijaz, your theories may well be true, and of course, are always intellectually very interesting. But realistically, the only option for outsiders is to make their own observations. (Would you and I take George Bush and American officials at their word and accept their compelling theories? Can outsiders take Zardari and Pakistani officials at their word and accept their theories? Neither would be right.)

So purely in the spirit of making that observation, do you see any basic change in the worldview of Pakistan's External Jihadis? And by External Jihadis one simply means people who have been supporting one or more of Pakistan's various External Jihads, before they felt the threat at home - people like HP. Is there anything to assure the world that they intend actually stopping their Jihads, in one form or another, after they make sure their own homes are safe?

Yaar, don't take this amiss. I am not doing anything that I would not expect you to do, fully, with regard to the regular pronouncements and policies of Indians or Americans in their dealings with Pakistanis!

Eklaveya,
You appear obsessed. Tell me when this mock stuff begin and whp was the prophet?

And you have evaded my question.

To me, it all seems like Pakistan's External Jihadis going back home to furnish some supplies and cook some food which ran out in their war with the outside world. They will be back as soon as they have filled their stomachs and replenished their supplies.

Is their any basis for outsiders to believe that isn't true (other than the words of the same Pakistanis)? :(

ijaz_gul, please help us get some idea of Pakistani thinking.

See, people like tahmedji never supported Jihad outside of Pakistan. They will continue to not support it.

Do you know any Pakistani who was an External Jihadi (a person who supported Jihad outside of Pakistan) earlier but would not return to supporting External Jihad once Pakistan's current political-economic-social difficulties and instabiities have been resolved? Any Pakistani who has MORALLY and publicly renounced Jihad in such unjust places as in Kashmir?

Seriously, what change in Pakistani mindset do you see, other than 'first let's get strong' and 'in-the-meanwhile-let-Muslims-oppressed-by-Hindus-and-others-switch-to-"Gan dhian-struggle"?'

Beena,

The title of your essay is: "A weak, Pakistan is a threat to neighbours". Yet, your article does not tell us why! In the second last paragraph you assert: "A weak, fragmented Pakistan will pose a threat to all its neighbours." Thats it. You give no reason what-so-ever. Your title could well have been "zardari goes to UN".

Eklaveya,
Dont be so Naive.

Unfortunately, Pakistan has always played according to US script and now Pakistan realsies how dangerous it can turn.

How are the Taliban contacts suddenly openeing up?
Do you think USA or UK ever broke contacts. The only difference is that this time, they want to keep Pakistan out and use Saudi Arabia instead. But even this would not succeed, unless Pakistan is co-opted. Note it somewhere.

In my honest opinion politically Pakistan as a whole has much to gain by delimiting it's constituent parts into independent ethnic entities.
We can have a loose confederation of 5 parts of Pakistan which may be called the "Greater Pakistan" and each may decide it's political , cultural and ethnic identity.

This would end the ideology of pan-Islamist terrorism forever in this region.

That is the only way we can have peace in this region and ensure that Islamism dies its natural death in the 21st century.

Simultaneously Pakistan must undertake a major review of its intelligence agencies and them rein in. The bomb attack on Marriott Hotel in Islamabad on September 20 underlined the urgency of a holistic plan for dealing with terrorism. This includes ‘home grown’ terrorism stemming from the ‘jihadi’ groups that Pakistan has long cultivated in the hopes of bleeding India in Kashmir.


Sorry Beena...pipe dream if ever there was one..

Giani ji, I have no stand on Pakistan's being strong or weak. As individuals, Pakistanis are my friends, and I wish them a strong nation, and much happiness.

I just don't expect even the slightest change with respect to outsiders. It is a purely internal fight.

Those who think that tomorrow, or outside of this conflict, Pakistanis would think and argue differently than they have in the past are fooling themselves.