A Weak Pakistan is a Threat to Neighbours

WAR FOR TERROR MOTIVES by FM Shah

“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things.�
NICCOLO MACHIAVELLI

US initial official motive of WAR FOR TERROR was bringing evil forces like Al-Qaeada and master minds of 9/11 to justice. This motive was later on changed to fight for democracy and liberty against dark forces of Taliban and extremism. USA critics have stated various motives of WAR FOR TERROR which vary from Iraq/Afghanistan occupation, sectarian/regional violence, oil monopoly, denuclearization of Pakistan, map redrawing of Pakistan and clash of civilization. However WAR FOR TERROR architects will try their best to conceal the real motives till final conclusion and achievements of their objectives. At the same time, Pakistan state and its establishment has tailored US official version WAR FOR TERROR for its own interests. These interests vary from economic aid, military hardware, legitimacy and opportunities for corruption loot/plunder, dealing with iron hand to any political, economic issues, crisis or rival.
US banks and financial markets during last century have been designed and structured around cycles of wars, chaos and violence across the globe away from US mainland. Starting with WW I (initiated by Non-state agents), each US recession/depression alternate with some war in some other part of the world away from US main land. USA during last century planned thoroughly and laid the necessary groundwork for the growth of the most powerful defense/aerospace industry worth trillion dollars. As a result if we sum up today technological might of US, it includes only Banking/Finance, IT and Defense/Aerospace Industry. In these industries US firms have monopoly and do not have ant parallel/equal competitor in whole world (including G8 countries). Each war, conflict or crisis creates direct consumption for US defense/aerospace industry. Each war/crisis is followed by construction and public work, which is mostly done by US firms/cartels. Examples are Europe (after WW II) and Iraq reconstruction recently. Each war, conflict and map redrawing has created new US dependant states. Examples are Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Saudi Arabia is depended on USA for last seven decades for all external and internal threats. Pakistan during its existence for last six decades is dependant on USA for military hardware and financial aid due to similar on going wars, crisis and breeding violence across its Western and Eastern borders. Wars, crisis and violence also create favorable and monopolistic business/trade conditions for most of US firms and MNCs. Similarly wars, violence and crisis also result flow of capital from whole globe to US main land, which has remained safe from any war, violence and crisis during last century. Whereas US has been remained direct/indirect sponsor and actor in each war, violence and crisis during last one century. Therefore wars act as agents for pulling US economy out of recession due to enhanced public spending, reconstruction work after war and preferential monopolies over trade/resource. Transparency international Bribe payers index 2002, ranks defence industry as the 2nd most corrupt business sector- just ahead of oil and gas sector but behind the public works and construction sectors. On domestic front, wars also divert attention from structural flaws in US economic/financial system. Unemployment and inflation in US reached record heights during great depression of 1930s. Great depression was followed by World War II (in 1940s). Similarly in economic recession, US embarked wars and adventures away from main land like Korean, Vietnam and Kuwait Wars. (For relationship between US economic depression and Wars, kindly refer to Fig 4.4 Page 73 & Fig 6.6 Page 116. The Economy Today-8th Edition by Professor Bradley Schiller).
Oil is traded in dollars and most of the Arab oil dollars are saved in US banks considered to be safe havens. WAR FOR TERROR resulted turmoil and chaos in Arab countries, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. This turmoil escalated oil and commodities prices exponentially during last several years. Hence WAR FOR TERROR was indispensable and crucial bailout package for US Banks and Financial Markets. As an example Pakistan oil import bill was US $ 2 Billion in 2000 whereas in 2007 Pakistan oil import bill shoot upto US $ 12 Billion. So in this way additional US $ 10 Billion were diverted to US Banks and financial markets through Arabs from Pakistan economy. Just consider oil import for whole world and billions/trillions US $ directed from the whole globe toward US banks due to escalating oil prices. Without WAR FOR TERROR and oil price escalation US Banks and Financial Markets would have been failed much earlier than 2008. Moreover required bailout package would have been much greater than US $ 700 Billion. Recent decline in oil prices after US bank bailout package also give an idea about structural flaw in US banking/financial markets and its dependency on oil dollars. At domestic front, fear environment of WAR FOR TERROR also made US $ 700 billion unobjectionable to US Taxpayers. Similarly after Arab-Isreal 1973 and Kuwait War oil prices escalated, which helped US banking systems and financial markets. WAR FOR TERROR regional turmoil had also resulted drag on US rival economies of China, Russia, India, Arab and Iran. These countries are almost half of the globe. As US economy was unable to remain competitive and correct its own structural gaps. Therefore WAR FOR TERROR was initiated for restricting and limiting US rival economies growth. Hence the basic motivation of WAR FOR TERROR is chaos and anarchy in the whole globe through Islam and Muslim regions which are safest, vulnerable and easiest targets for US. Other various factors ranging from Al-Qaeada, Taliban, extremism, violence, oil monopoly, denuclearization of Pakistan, map redrawing of Pakistan and civilization clash are not root causes of WAR FOR TERROR rather these all are natural outcome/effects of the WAR FOR TERROR. Therefore these are secondary in nature and mostly misleading. As an example if there is car accident due to brake failure. After accident wind screen, complete body and wheel steering system are damaged. Now in this case wheel steering system is not the root cause rather it is affect of the occurrence.
Pakistan political, defense decision makers’ and military commanders committed suicide by joining US WAR FOR TERROR for saving Pakistan from direct US confrontation and carpet bombing. PPP political leadership in Islamabad is claiming that during last seven years, WAR FOR TERROR has become Pakistan war for state survival. These claims, doubts, fears, conspiracies and assertions have been debated at multiple levels in Media, parliament and mass level. Various explanations, justifications, motives and reasons are presented for WAR FOR TERROR. Disinformation/disorientation campaigns for local/international establishment agenda has increased exponentially during recent times. Such disinformation/disorientation campaigns are paid, sponsored and engineered by local/international establishment for creating justification of ethnic cleansing of Tribal Pathans on one hand by Army and other side by US Drones. Pakistani press/electronic media like establishment considers/present themselves as CHAMPIONS OF TRUTH, DEMOCRASY, and JUSTICE. Various anchors pretend asking tough/hard questions and saving Pakistan from Western/India. However media at best are manipulating and comprising the truth by showing half picture of crisis. Most of the time media avoid context and conceal motives of the ongoing crisis and chaos in Pakistan. Media can never tip-toe out of the false perception minefield that they have allowed themselves to be lured into by the CIA, Pakistani ruling establishment and architects of WAR FOR TERROR. TV Anchors most of the times are bounded by policy, life threats, job fears, temptations, easy going attitude, incompetence and lack of quality research on social science. Any TV channel prime motivation is money, revenue, coverage, ads and sponsors not truth. As an example, Media have never been able to ask simple questions about worst case scenario if Pakistan is invaded by US just like Iraq/Afghanistan. Are there any war plans for such worst case scenario? Will Pakistanis suffer same fate of Abu Gharaib and Bagram Jail? Avoiding confrontation with US is understood, however it does not exempt Pakistan State and Armed Forces from preparing War Plans for emerging war threat similar to Iraq/Afghan. In 1990s, none in whole Islamic world could imagine about possible US occupation of Afghanistan. However it is almost impossible to fight two wars simultaneously, thousands miles away from mainland, without military and strategic planning spanning over decades. One of best known example is 1967 Arab-Israel War. Israel Air Forces were practicing offensive air operation against Arab since 1957 for almost 12 years. Whereas Arab Media and their puppet leadership were sleeping like prostitutes.
Now question arise will dramas similar to so called terrorism 9/11 and weapon of mass destruction be staged for invading other countries. Will US invade Pakistan or sponsor civil war in Pakistan. Has India committed suicidal mistake like Pakistan (in September 2001) by joining WAR FOR TERROR for settling scores against Pakistan? Will India be able to pull out itself toward safe/straight policy of Iran or Turkey by not sponsoring civil war along its 1800 KMs long border alongwith Pakistan? These are hard and tough question. It is not possible to precisely answers in white and black. Nonetheless temporary failures/setbacks in Afghanistan or Iraq may only delay US aggressive plans against Pakistan. Pakistan and whole regional actors overall interests should provide the framework for rethinking about evolving philosophy of war and changing enemy/threat perception. Pakistan should prevent conflict/war with US or India as a strategic priority since this would allow concentrating more on socio-economic development.

If you know the enemy and know your self, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself you will succumb in every battle. SUN TZU
Pakistan war plans, threat perception, security policy and defense doctrine have been revolving around India as traditional enemy during last fifty years. It was based on two pronged policy of conventional military buildup and nuclear deterrence. However past fifty years Pakistan conventional threat perception is incompatible with evolving war philosophy and battle planning after 9/11. Iraq and Afghanistan have totally changed war initiation patterns and rules of engagements between various states and non-state actors. Therefore in short term, Pakistan as deterrence should adopt a simple war strategy of Guerilla Warfare for responding to any US design for expanding WAR FOR TERROR into Pakistan. Pakistan have to revamp all its war games/plans accordingly. In long term Pakistan has to gear up its defense policies and boost air power as future wars initiated by hypothetical non state actors will be exclusively between asymmetrical adversaries. This fear of facing US will not only boost our national integrity but in long term it will also add new dimensions and life to our defense industry in private sector and self indigenization. Perception of strong enemy means strong commitments for nation survival and history is full of example where nations excelled only due to fear of some strong enemies just. Further it will send a new form of message to super powers and their policy makers while planning invasion on Pakistan. It will delay any possible aggressive plans against Pakistan. Germans after humiliating defeat and strict restrictions on Defence/Aviation industry as result of WWW I were able to raise quite effective/capable Defence/air power during WWW II supported by its aviation industry based in private sector within short span of 5 to 7 years only. The same engineering and technological base is still helping German industries, which are best in the world. By capturing of only 2 % of world aircraft/Defence market, Pakistan will have foreign exchange worth billions, create thousands jobs and make us self reliant in Arms Power capabilities. After capturing 2 % of the Defence world market, we will not need IMF, World Bank or conquering music, dance and film industry.

The purpose of the article was to discuss the WAR FOR TERROR and options for Pakistan Defence. This discussion is important, most critical, to the future of Pakistan and whole region. It should be reiterated that this is not intended to be a stand-alone study. Rather, these comments and suggestions are meant as a contribution to the continuous work of a doctrine and in particular to respond to evolving philosophy of war and new threat perspective for Pakistan and whole region in terms of economy and security. As such, while the article seeks to highlight issues that were considered to be of the most importance, there is no pretence towards comprehensiveness or detail. However, while it is not possible to get into the nitty gritty of every particular suggestion, attempt were made to define options and solutions at level of detail that underscores the practicality of the suggestion. However, it should be stressed that most important element are the broad directional changes recommended in the article.

In peace prepare for war, in war prepare for peace. The art of war is of vital importance to the state. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. Hence under no circumstances can it be neglected. SUN TZU

Various explanations, justifications, motives and reasons are presented for WAR FOR TERROR. US stated official motive of WAR FOR TERROR is fight against Al-Qaeada, Taliban and extremism. Many corrupt/de-facto colonial third world countries like Pakistan and Indian governments and establishment always tailor US official version WAR FOR TERROR for its own interests. These interests vary from economic aid, military hardware, legitimacy and open liberty for dealing with iron hand to any political, economic issues, crisis or rival.
Al-Qaida is the top secret code name of special covert operations of the U.S. CIA, Israeli Mossad, British SIS, Indian RAW and Pakistani ISI. Al-Qaida is a fake name, an imaginary illusion, a deceptive fraud, a fictitious hoax and a fraudulent scam of the unlawful war for terror, which is still being cunningly and clandestinely supported and promoted by the CIA, Mossad, SIS, RAW, ISI and the Corrupt Mercenary Media (CMM) to frame, blame, defame, harm and kill innocents Pakistanis, Kashmiris, Indians, Afghans, Arabs, Muslims/Hindus and other innocent humans by falsely and maliciously labeling them as the Al-Qaida militants, extremists, or terrorists. Actually, Al-Qaida or Al-CIA-da is the CIA. Al-Qaida is the Mossad. Al-Qaida is the SIS. Al-Qaida is the RAW. Al-Qaida is the ISI. Al-Qaida is the CMM. The CIA, Mossad, SIS, RAW, ISI and the CMM are the real Al-Qaida or 'the Evil 6'. For the sake of international peace, reform or abolish the CIA, Mossad, SIS, RAW and the ISI; oppose and expose the CMM; and end the illegal war of terror now to reduce global terrorism. Indeed, imperialistic military occupation of any country, state, or nation is state terrorism. Civil terror is a natural reaction to government terror."
Al Qaeda and Taliban is an “imaginary force� created by CIA, through which third world countries like Pakistan and Indian governments, ruling elite and establishment interest converge with USA. Pakistan state, military/political ruling elite and establishment have been trapped and addicted to US dollars/support for last fifty seven years. These dollars are shifted to safe havens of same Western Banks, from where these dollars started journey. Hence it’s a zero sum game for Western economic system. It is for the same reason various crises in third world countries are created for commissions and omissions. Third world countries like Pakistan and Indian ruling establishment and state composes of various political, army, economic, business feudal, bureaucratic, metropolis cartels controlling/manipulating various financial and power hubs in like Bombay, Karachi, Lahore and Delhi (all British era colonial metropolis). Rest all masses (99 %) are non state agent and actors. These masses are typical mouse from Mumbai and Karachi. In the local train compartment which has capacity of 100 persons, these mouse travel with 500 more mouse. Mouse at least squeak but they don't even do that.

Pakistani and Indian ruling establishment have been using wild cards like Al Qaeda, Taliban, Sectarian, Ethnic Violence to their advantage. Whenever CIA or Pakistani or Indian ruling establishment wants to kill people or target someone, they send in an Al Qaeda or Taliban cut-out to start the cycle of violence. Disinformation/disorientation campaigns for local/international establishment agenda has increased exponentially during recent times. Such disinformation/disorientation campaigns are paid, sponsored and engineered by local/international establishment for creating justification for military actions, extreme brute measure and corrupt practices. the Corrupt Mercenary Media (CMM) present themselves as CHAMPIONS OF TRUTH, DEMOCRASY, and JUSTICE. Various writers and anchors pretend asking tough/hard questions and saving world from war, extremism. However media at best are manipulating and comprising the truth by showing half picture of crisis. Most of the time media avoid context and conceal motives of the ongoing crisis and chaos in India, Pakistan and whole Muslim world. Media will never tip-toe out of the false perception minefield that they have allowed themselves to be lured into by the CIA, various ruling establishment and architects of WAR FOR TERROR. TV Anchors most of the times are bounded by policy, life threats, job fears, temptations, easy going attitude, incompetence and lack of quality research on social science. Any TV channel prime motivation is money, revenue, coverage, ads and sponsors not truth.


Al-Qaeda is a front organization of CIA and MOSSAD : Mumbai based group of intellectuals and human rights activists
India Daily-Jun. 13, 2007

The Mumbai based group alleged that Al-Qaeda is a front organization of CIA and MOSSAD. "There is enough evidence that the Al-Qaeda is a front organization of the CIA and MOSSAD. The Bush junta has used the bogey of terror and of Al Qaeda to justify his unending and ever expanding Global War on Terror, which is only a means of capturing the resources of the world and of establishing the sole hegemony of Israel in West Asia," said the group of activists and intellectuals. The group is holding a press conference in Mumbai on Wednesday to "expose the links between Al-Qaeda and the CIA-MOSSAD".
Holding American-Israeli operation accomplices of the 9/11 attack on the WTC, the spokesman of the group said that this has been widely written about in USA and Europe itself and more than 50% of the American people and far more Europeans, now believe and are convinced about this fact. He said that sections of the Indian ruling political and military elite are importing the same Bush-Olmert formula into India. "The increasing terror attacks only serve the cause of the Indian elite and divide the masses along communal lines. It is only the ordinary Indians who are the victims of terror either in temples, mosques, buses or trains," he said adding that practically no political leader suffers a similar fate, where the terrorists are apprehended and killed in "encounters".
"Every terror attack is meant to push and drag the Indian masses further into the waiting arms of Uncle Sam and the Israeli Goliath. Every terror attack spreads further hatred for Muslims and Islam and weakens the Indian Muslim community," he said.

"Normally, Pakistanis are as well-behaved and united, as a bunch of drunken pirates (who don't require booze). That's UNTIL you push them into a corner. Then they come together and will strike you in the kisser, like an iron fist. It'll be like dealing with 160 Million suicide bombers..."

Will they strike just like in 1948 when they were driven out of the Kashmir valley, or in 1965 when they got a bloody nose after trying Op Gibralter, or may be in 1971 when their country was cut in half and 93000 troops surrendered or in 1998 when they not only lost 4000 men but also had to make a disgraceful withdrawal from the Kargil heights?
Alas! Only if the tribe of drum beaters for Pakistan just faded away.......

Beena,

If you have not seen this yet:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122307507392703831.html

Please do read it over. The last paragraph especially.

Ras

Jayp #33

you are crazy no doubt but don't be cute by half

You did not post this:


"Zardari told WSJ. “I’m looking for temporary relief for my budgetary support and cash for my treasury which does not need to be spent by me."

He clearly misspoke.

He is asking for help temp relief not some permanent investment. So the numbers are mixed up.

Presidents, beggers and zardari


Here is a very powerful argument to provide free money to pakistan, that is 100 billion of it so that the bomb will not fall into alquida hands, that is according to pak president.

What will be the cost of denuking pakistan?? much much less, a few daisy cutters should do it.

The money bribe will prevent the nukes going for only a few years, shortly there will be pictures of paki ISI generals sitting with Osama, as the final black mail for the money

from dawn of today

Zardari expects world to come up with $100bn



By Our Correspondent


NEW YORK, Oct 4: Citing the threat posed by militants along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and the possible economic meltdown, President Asif Ali Zardari has asked the international community to give Pakistan $100 billion in grant to ensure the country’s survival.

“I need your help, if we fall, if we can’t do it, you can’t do it,� Mr Zardari repeatedly said during an interview with Wall Street Journal’s columnist Brent Stephens, published on Saturday.

In the interview, Mr Zardari also called for a broader free trade agreement with India and said: “India has never been a threat to Pakistan.

“I, for one, and our democratic government is not scared of Indian influence abroad.�

Stephens said in his column that Mr Zardari spoke of the militant groups operating in occupied Kashmir as “terrorists�, adding that he had no objection to the India-US nuclear cooperation pact so long as Islamabad was treated “at par� with New Delhi.

“Why would we begrudge the largest democracy in the world getting friendly with one of the oldest democracies in the world?�

On Mr Zardari’s request for $100 billion in grant, Stephens says that he “has a simple and powerful argument to make that the world cannot allow his government to fail – not when it’s becoming increasingly plausible that Pakistan itself, with its stockpile of as many as 200 nuclear warheads, could be toppled by Al Qaeda and its allies�.

In asking the international community for infusion of $100 billion into Pakistan’s economy, Stephens said Zardari was keen to insist that it not be described as aid.

http://pkpolitics.com/2008/09/29/live-with-talat-29-september-2008/

that was a great news from bajour tribes.......kill the Talibanis and their educated PAki supporters ....

"...It'll be like dealing with 160 Million suicide bombers... "

Huh!! Islami idiot threatening us with suicide bombers.......we are ready with pig blood .......

abey jaa!!!

#29 Posted by Simon_Templar on October 3, 2008 12:57:30 pm

last month you were telling us how pakiland was right where it wanted to be: in control of things..



20 dead in suspected Pakistan missile strike
Posted: 03:18 PM ET

Military: Suspected missile strike kills at least 20 in Pakistan
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) — A suspected missile strike killed at least 20 people Friday in the Pakistani village of Lund Mohammad Khel, a military source told CNN.

Local television reports put the death toll at 21.

Pakistan’s army, however, would not confirm the missile strike. A spokesman said only that an explosion was heard, but the cause of the incident was not known and under investigation.

Nowhere in this article does the author explain, or expound upon the premise behind the title of this article. In the last para she just repeats the title, as if by doing so, she has somehow proved her assertion.

Today, India, Afghanistan, USA and Israel are all circling Pakistan like hungry vultures, hoping that Pakistan is weakened by their daily shenanigans, so they can swoop down and get their fill.

It's not gonna happen without the connivance of our political leadership with the establishment. That's highly unlikely, since the PPP is universally despised by the latter and for good reason. If the PPP continues to fail the voter, the army will come back, with popular support.

Normally, Pakistanis are as well-behaved and united, as a bunch of drunken pirates (who don't require booze). That's UNTIL you push them into a corner. Then they come together and will strike you in the kisser, like an iron fist. It'll be like dealing with 160 Million suicide bombers...

Hindus should worry about losing India, once again, if it continues to push it's western neighbours.

The trouble is Pakistan always wants to have the cake and eat it too. It wants to play goody goody to the Mricans and demonstrates its loyalty to the anti Al Qaida coalition by conveniently producing some sundry wanted Al Qaida man in Pakistan at regular intervals, while it wants to nurture the Jehadi element to keep the pot boiling in Afghanistan and Kashmir.
Till such time Pakistan's miltry dominated ISI continues to have the decisive say in strategic foreign policy matters, unfortunately, there will be no light in the end of the long dark tunnel that Pakistan has got itself into.

#21 Posted by ijaz_gul

Two Jihadis are coming up in India. First the VHP and other rightists playing blood holi in Orissa,Ahmedabad and arsoners of Samjotha Express etc and secondly the fringe Muslims (not sure) blowing crackers created by india itself.

Wow! The ability of some Pakis to delude themselves into believing that they have nothing to do with terrorist strikes happening inside India is mind-boggling.

Re: # 24
Ijaj...
The source of the trouble is your holy book. Without that nothing would have been possible....CIA etc... had not written verses in Korun....Can you force a jain to fight jihad?- Never....

Re: # 23
Majumder....

"It is quite correct on your part to clubbing the VHP-BD with Taliban. If they are not checked we will have a Hindoo Taliban on our hands. Their modus operandi may not be the same, but the end result will be similar...."

Majumder, you are going too far. BD is very strong in Gujrat. Apart from freak vandalism in Vadodara University, there is nothing common...
Neither BD wants to go to other country to fight Jihad type stuff, neither they are closing down girl schools, neither they are encouraging mob justise for petty crimes.... The list is very long...Mind that, BD is the only people who can terrorise islamists and act as deterrent....

majumdar,
I hope you have a reasonable degree of perception that Taliban was a creation of Pakistan (BB-Babar)-Dick Cheney-Zalmay (USA)Oil Cartel Connect. Who dined Taliban in Alska? Who adopted Jalal Ud Din Haqqani as a Chum? Who scuttled Taliban from moderating themselves? Who brought OBL as guest to Afghanistan?

Ijaz sahib,

USA withdrew from the jihad in 1988 after the Russians were beaten. After 1988, jihad was a Pakistani phenomenon and the Taliban were created in 1995 by a civilian administration (BB's 2nd govt) without any reference to USA or any third party. So to wash Pakistani hands off jihad is unfair.

It is quite correct on your part to clubbing the VHP-BD with Taliban. If they are not checked we will have a Hindoo Taliban on our hands. Their modus operandi may not be the same, but the end result will be similar.

Personally I do not see Pakistan getting any weaker unless there is an outright invasion of Pakistan by US armies.

Regards

and now we come to know that UK and USA anre maintaining contacts with Taliban, an admission that comes when Pakistan has been leaking information on such contacts, and being pressured for contacts itself as such.

And yet there is another strain supported by USA-UK and India fighting inside Pakistan.

Eklevaya,
'So purely in the spirit of making that observation, do you see any basic change in the worldview of Pakistan's External Jihadis?'

In your perception an external Jihadi is one who fights in Afghanistan, Kashmir, Iraq and maybe a few crackers in India.

The Afghan Jihadi was created against the godless communism in pursuit of Brezinski Doctrine. The sunni jihadi was created by them to contain Iran. Inside Pakistan, they became sectarian terrorists.

Kashmiri Freedom Fighter has existed for over 60 years and was a creation of a ficticious intruement of asccesion. At some point in the 80s, some Pakistani Jihadis joined them and many became double agents. So India also joined the recipe.

Iraqi Jihadi is a reaction to the occupation of their land and its a freedom struggle. However, they are beng split on sectarian lines.

Two Jihadis are coming up in India. First the VHP and other rightists playing blood holi in Orissa,Ahmedabad and arsoners of Samjotha Express etc and secondly the fringe Muslims (not sure) blowing crackers created by india itself.
Now if Pakistan weakens, it will be a conduit for export of many of these sentiments to India.

While Zalmay was the special pseudo expert on Afghanistan, India is becoming the advisor on Pakistan affairs which is very dangerous for India itself.

With you ability of drafting theories, I am sure you know all this already and just drawing me in. So have it.

It is not weak or strong Pakistan that matters, it is the de-islaimise (or de-barbarised) Pakistan, that is desirable to both India and US etc...
But can we hope that a country created in the name of Islam and which was housing largest terrorist training centre ( Mosque and Madressah) in it's capital (Red Mosque)....

"Pakistan is too unruly for the world's comfort but not weak enough to invite an intervention. ..."

That makes it even a more compelling reason for dividing Pakistan into 5 pieces.

A nuclear undivided Pakistan provides nuclear shelter for it's Jehadis. Indians realized that afte kargil. Now Americans are realizing this.

We need to isolate the nukes and let it be controlled by secular regions like Sindh Desh and isolate it as a buffer between the Lallu-Punju ullu land of PAki Punjab.
We let Baloch take out the steam off Al Qaeda and Talibans.

Now, the Talibs are isolated and without any where near the nuke trigger.

Then we go for the kill and eliminate all the Talibs and Jehadi mullahs.

In this way we can eliminate Jehadism fom Pakistani land- there is no other way.

In reality a stronger pakistan will be a constant headache for India and a weaker, fragmented Pakistan will be a nightmare for US and rest of the world. We will prefer something in between ..the way it is ....Go Army!! Go Jihadis!!

First Eid greetings to all on this forum.
I think a weaker Pakistan is more dangerous. We must not forget the present Pakistan is plagued with so called jihadis, who has given tough time to one of the most powerful nation of the world USSR and could possibly be one of the reasons which led to the decline of USSR, and those who celebrated their victory, now facing consequences. The mujahadin were born, under the joint sponsorship of the Saudis ,Americans and Pakistan.
We must see that the democratic institution in Pakistan is strengthened and more liberal forces in Pakistan get the voice.  Domestic violence, a troubled North West Frontier Province and a nuclear weapon that could fall into the wrong hands, is enough to make any one see red. A weak Pakistan could turn into a nightmare for the world , unless and until there is a stable, efficient and strong government which can take a stand against terrorism,  ignorance, poverty, corruption and religious fanaticism. Extremists tend to thrive in an environment where the state has retreated and has no program for improvement. A more moderate populace normally might not be sympathetic to radical voices, but, at a loss in times of distress, will listen to their message. Through offering free education and aid distributed through clean schools, compared to the limited contact most have with sub-par government institutions, the leaders of these organizations gain both a receptive audience and evidence of their own superior credentials to lead .
The situation of basic education and healthcare ranges from weak to nonexistent in some parts of the country. This state of affairs has assisted in the process of Islamization as poor people turn to the private education system (madrassas) to provide their children with education, and more importantly, food and clothing. The madrassas, which played a major role in providing willing fighters during the Soviet-Afghan War, have continued to operate and arguably grow.  Poor parents send their children to Islamic schools so that they at least receive some education, it’s the responsibility of any Govt in the World to provide education to its children but in Pakistan ELITE never cared about it. If there is one country with a tragic political tradition, it is Pakistan with its millions of inhabitants. None of its leaders has ever left power voluntarily.
According to voice of America latest news, Analysts and U.S. officials say American pressure on Pakistan over counterterrorism policy has strained the relationship between that country's government and its military. The honeymoon between Pakistan's powerful military establishment and the newly elected civilian government appears to be short-lived. ISI officers who created the Taliban are retired and gone from headquarters, but that Taliban sympathizers are probably still on the payroll as contractors in the field. Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani has promised to keep the army out of politics. But that pledge has been made and broken before in Pakistan. Another breaking and disturbing news is suicide attack on ANP leader Asfand Wali Khan today, although he is not hurt but is enough challenge for present Govt. Pakistan is at the center of a gathering firestorm engulfing south and central Asia in the most volatile confrontation since 9/11. Pakistan, Afghanistan , the US and NATO all bear heavy responsibility for the crisis. The army's policies over the past fateful seven years have led to Pakistan losing much of its territorial sovereignty. Heavily armed militant groups run wild, crime is rampant, paramilitary and police morale has plummeted with a stream of desertions. The country is in the throes of an economic meltdown. Foreign exchange reserves have halved in the past three months to less than $8 billion, inflation runs at 25 percent, power shortages cripple industry and agriculture, and mass unemployment fuels popular resentment. Zardari needs to develop a partnership with the army to fight the terrorists, but so far the army lacks strategy or coherence, one day bombing villages in FATA, the next day announcing cease-fires and offering compensation to militants. It has failed to protect the people of FATA, some 800,000 out of a population of just 3.5 million have fled the region since 2006 - terrified of both the army and the Taliban. Pakistan is too unruly for the world's comfort but not weak enough to invite an intervention. Its people are proud, fiercely resentful of slights and quick to take offence. The best the West can do is tread cautiously, bet nothing on Pakistani democracy and deal with whatever its heated political culture throws up. The solution must be for the West to do what it can to promote stable rule. That means aiding civilian rulers to help tackle the food and fuel crisis, and the poverty that provides a fertile ground for the politics of terrorism. It means convincing them they have as much to gain by the defeat of extremists as the West does. It does not mean finding another military strongman to back in the hope that he can deliver what Mr Musharraf could not.

#15 Posted by Eklavya

(Would you and I take George Bush and American officials at their word and accept their compelling theories? Can outsiders take Zardari and Pakistani officials at their word and accept their theories? Neither would be right.)

“So purely in the spirit of making that observation, do you see any basic change in the worldview of Pakistan's External Jihadis?�

Kaal gone nuts again! How would Ijaz know? Outsiders can’t accept Zardari’s theories and Kaal can’t accept Bush’s theories. Ijaz would have to be insider of the “Pakistan’s external Jihadi� to accept their theories. Otherwise, he too is an outsider for Jihadis.

Unless Kaal in his infinite non-wisdom is implying that Ijaz has inside track!

Ijaz, don't know the answer to your question!

Ijaz, your theories may well be true, and of course, are always intellectually very interesting. But realistically, the only option for outsiders is to make their own observations. (Would you and I take George Bush and American officials at their word and accept their compelling theories? Can outsiders take Zardari and Pakistani officials at their word and accept their theories? Neither would be right.)

So purely in the spirit of making that observation, do you see any basic change in the worldview of Pakistan's External Jihadis? And by External Jihadis one simply means people who have been supporting one or more of Pakistan's various External Jihads, before they felt the threat at home - people like HP. Is there anything to assure the world that they intend actually stopping their Jihads, in one form or another, after they make sure their own homes are safe?

Yaar, don't take this amiss. I am not doing anything that I would not expect you to do, fully, with regard to the regular pronouncements and policies of Indians or Americans in their dealings with Pakistanis!

Eklaveya,
You appear obsessed. Tell me when this mock stuff begin and whp was the prophet?

And you have evaded my question.

To me, it all seems like Pakistan's External Jihadis going back home to furnish some supplies and cook some food which ran out in their war with the outside world. They will be back as soon as they have filled their stomachs and replenished their supplies.

Is their any basis for outsiders to believe that isn't true (other than the words of the same Pakistanis)? :(

ijaz_gul, please help us get some idea of Pakistani thinking.

See, people like tahmedji never supported Jihad outside of Pakistan. They will continue to not support it.

Do you know any Pakistani who was an External Jihadi (a person who supported Jihad outside of Pakistan) earlier but would not return to supporting External Jihad once Pakistan's current political-economic-social difficulties and instabiities have been resolved? Any Pakistani who has MORALLY and publicly renounced Jihad in such unjust places as in Kashmir?

Seriously, what change in Pakistani mindset do you see, other than 'first let's get strong' and 'in-the-meanwhile-let-Muslims-oppressed-by-Hindus-and-others-switch-to-"Gan dhian-struggle"?'

Beena,

The title of your essay is: "A weak, Pakistan is a threat to neighbours". Yet, your article does not tell us why! In the second last paragraph you assert: "A weak, fragmented Pakistan will pose a threat to all its neighbours." Thats it. You give no reason what-so-ever. Your title could well have been "zardari goes to UN".

Eklaveya,
Dont be so Naive.

Unfortunately, Pakistan has always played according to US script and now Pakistan realsies how dangerous it can turn.

How are the Taliban contacts suddenly openeing up?
Do you think USA or UK ever broke contacts. The only difference is that this time, they want to keep Pakistan out and use Saudi Arabia instead. But even this would not succeed, unless Pakistan is co-opted. Note it somewhere.

In my honest opinion politically Pakistan as a whole has much to gain by delimiting it's constituent parts into independent ethnic entities.
We can have a loose confederation of 5 parts of Pakistan which may be called the "Greater Pakistan" and each may decide it's political , cultural and ethnic identity.

This would end the ideology of pan-Islamist terrorism forever in this region.

That is the only way we can have peace in this region and ensure that Islamism dies its natural death in the 21st century.

Simultaneously Pakistan must undertake a major review of its intelligence agencies and them rein in. The bomb attack on Marriott Hotel in Islamabad on September 20 underlined the urgency of a holistic plan for dealing with terrorism. This includes ‘home grown’ terrorism stemming from the ‘jihadi’ groups that Pakistan has long cultivated in the hopes of bleeding India in Kashmir.


Sorry Beena...pipe dream if ever there was one..

Giani ji, I have no stand on Pakistan's being strong or weak. As individuals, Pakistanis are my friends, and I wish them a strong nation, and much happiness.

I just don't expect even the slightest change with respect to outsiders. It is a purely internal fight.

Those who think that tomorrow, or outside of this conflict, Pakistanis would think and argue differently than they have in the past are fooling themselves.

Re: # 4

giani ji,


A broken Pakistan is very much the need of the hour. Politically i might make no difference to the citizens and may prove to be beneficial in the long run. But it would the greatest set back fo Pan-Islamist Al Qaeda and other strains of TNT because it would be a great set back to their dreams of uniting muslims in making an imbecile religious war against non-muslims.

Re: # 3

I agree....we cannot eliminate this TNT virus...but it can be contained........in a violent part of world called Pakistan..........

Dear Ms. Sarwar, I can feel the anguish and fear in your writing. Unfortunately, Jayp and Eklavya have a valid point that a strong Pakistan is neither in India's nor Afganistan's interest. Historically, a feudal mindset, that is still prevelant in Pakistan, have always demonstrated animosity towards its neighbors.

When Ayub felt that Pakistan was strong vis-a-vis India he attaked India. Zia's legacy, established from a position of strength, is playing havoc with Afganistan even today and the "blowback" is having its consequences in Pakistan.

When Musharaf felt that he was strong enough bcos of the nuclear weapons, he unleashed Kargil.

So to say that a weak Pakistan is a threat to its neighbors is a fallacy. A strong Pakistan is a nightmare. A weak Pakistan embroiled in its own soup and contained within its borders is perhaps a more suitable arrangement.

Pakistan, a country created by the demand of the Muslim Feudals has never had any democracy. It has always been run by a Fuedal - be it an "elected" one or an oppointed one (Army). You now have Sindhi Feudals running the country.

I dont think that Pakistan is in any danger of failing completely. Yes, there is a possibility of some cracks in its structure from widening. The US will not allow Pakistan to break-up as it is not in its interests. Strangely enough, I dont think it is in interest of the Indians to break it up any further.

Re: # 2

I agree, there will be no substantial change, the support for the jihadis is intrinsic to the TNt strain of islam that created pakistan, that muslims cannot live with other religions. This over the years have been expanded initially to get rid of the ahmadias, then the shias etc.

But with the US intervention, there could be some reduction in the money flows to the jihadis through the ISI. That at least is something good. The fact is that pakistanis and their ideology cannot be changed, it can only be managed by global intervention.

At last things are moving in that direction, and a weekened economy is the first step towards that..

"India had been telling a long time that the jihadis are supported by the ISI, at last now even the pakistanis are agreeing to it."

You are far too optimistic Jayp. Far far too optimistic. The apparent disagreement between the Taliban and the Pakistani middle class/ISI that created the Taliban is a purely INTERNAL issue.

If you think this represents even the slightest change in any Pakistani's mindset, you will be sorely disappointed, and very soon.

Beena...

"A weak, fragmented Pakistan will pose a threat to all its neighbours. "

It is all a question what that strong pakistan is likely to stand for and support. A pakistan, a strong pakistan strongly supporting the jihadis is bad for the world.

In the past 60 years pakistan has shown beyond doubt what it stands for, and teh world doesnot like it one bit.

India had been telling a long time that the jihadis are supported by the ISI, at last now even the pakistanis are agreeing to it.

Time for teh pakistanis to listen ti India and take any indians words as though it is from the book.