The Future of Indo Pak Conflict

indians need to understand what paki army means by their "first line of defence" .
that is also their first line of offense. this attack was by their first line of offense . it was very much like the kargil where the second line of army regulars would hide behind the nukes and clap in glee.

Re: # 39 Bulleya

"...i highlighted to an indian colleague, that india should not try to destablize pakistan, as an unstable and destabilized pakistan would have the same impact on india, as an unstable and destabilized afghanistan has had on pakistan."

Bulleya, a destabilized Pakistan is certainly not in anyone's interest, but if Pakistan does not put its own house in order and its territory continues to be used for brazen attacks like the one in Bombay, then all bets are off. India might well conclude that the way to rein in Pakistani militants is to make the state pay a price. I don't think that India has an interest in seeing an ungovernable Pakistan.

Of course, Indians have to do something to stop the terrorism. But just what?

After so many decades of listening to war-mongerers and feminists like Indira Gandhi, we still cry 'war', but fail to do ANYthing in the end, to even do what is really needed - like beefing- up the MEN in the forces, fixing responsibility, negotiating Kashmir, etc.

This is the crux of the problem - the danger of crying 'war' is that in the end, we neither fight a war, NOR do what is really ESSENTIAL!

the whole world is a liar. Only truth speaker is the Pakistani Muslim, whose own Islam actually teaches him that it is perfectly okay to lie as long as the cause of Islam is furthered.

Re: # 40.
it is really sad to see paki junta suffering from delusions about balkanization of india when the Fact is that by doing this operation they have paved way for their own disintegration

bs
straight from let camp by a isi handler
the irony is that paki junta brigade desperately tries to trace tHis as as a part of islamic jehad
on hindus whereas educated civilians waht to see it as a minority issue.
so who is right? first decide amongst yourselves before you write this bs propaganda maquerading as history.

It amuses me to see the over emphasis on the "Kashmir issue". Seriously, aren't there other fish to fry in Pakistani polity?

It would be interesting to go thru the history books a Pakistani kid studies in school and college. Are they available on the internet somewhere?

It appears to me that a deliberate overemphasis on Kashmir has been used to brainwash an entire generation, so that India continues to be percieved as "enemy no 1" in Pakistan.

On 23 August 2003 in Daily Nation (The original newspaper article is on my blog ) titled " THE FUTURE OF INDO PAK CONFLICT" I had given a simlarly unfolding scenario:---

Cynically the best US solution for the Indo Pak problems lies in
making India do the dirty job of reducing Pakistan to size after
Pakistan has been used up as a mid term tactical condom to do the dirty
job of dealing with Islamic militancy and the dirty job of mercenary
soldiering in Iraq and Iran ! In the process India would also be severely exhausted and possibly Balkanised with a strong south block rich in funds and hitech assets and a more conservative north battling secessionists in Indias north east and possibly fighting Bangladesh.

Agha Amin

quite an accurate sequence of events described.....not sure how you came up with the %, however.....

... a few days ago, i highlighted to an indian colleague, that india should not try to destablize pakistan, as an unstable and destabilized pakistan would have the same impact on india, as an unstable and destabilized afghanistan has had on pakistan.....i.e. al-qaeda will link in with militant islamic groups in india, and the terrorism in india will reach a new level......the concept of suicide attacks may end up in india, much like it started in pakistan a few years ago......i.e. the afghan will cross the borders of the punjab and end up in panipat again......

this individuals said there was no chance of this happening.....as the last time it happened was in 1761......i shrugged my shoulders and said maybe i don't understand india, and south asia, as well as i think i do.....

two days later, the mumbai attacks occured, with everyone from the indian govt. to the us govt. is blaming on the al-qaeda/lashkar etc. nexus......(the local indian contribution from its own citizens, is, quitely, understood my most indians; though not mentioned)......

......the only solution india has to its own stability, is a stable pakistan externally, and a socially stable india domestically......if india does anything to destabilize both these cases, it is heading for trouble.....

unfortunately, very few indian's seem to recognize.....much like very few americans, recognized that chasing after ghosts in iraq and afghanistan would bankrupt the usa.....

india's case will be much more complex than mere bankruptcy......it may or may not be bankrupted, but since it borders this volatile region, it will become terrorism target central.......much like afghanistan and pakistan......

in fact, there is an additional vulnerability that india has........that pakistan and afghanistan don't have......india has a huge religious faultline, already, domestically amongst hindus and muslims in india and kashmiris and indian govt. in kashmir......

an al-qaeda attack in pakistan causes damage.....but it cannot lead to local riots.....in india, if al-qaeda inc. links in with local indian groups, massive ethnic violence, is eventually, inevitable; especially with the political power enjoyed by one of hte political parties......

hence such a linkage will be phenomenally terroristic in india.....much more than it can be in pakistan......

so any indian hoping for an end to the peace process, hoping to bomb pakistan, hoping for perpetual military actions in indian kashmir, hoping for mass action against indian muslims (all or any of the above) may want to be careful what they wish for......their wishes may come true......

we live as neighbors.....that cannot be changed......trust me, we will die as neighbors.......

then again, the pathans had not invaded panipat since 1761.....and i was totally, incorrect about them, subjugating taxila and lahore and crossing wagah to enter india......

apparently, (if the indian govt. is to be believed)......they are now sailing from karachi.....

Indian Army saved British position in France in 1914 .....cheap manpower ....the US soldier is 100 times more expensive logistically , financially and militarily...therefore USA wants to use cheap Indian manpower to deal with Pakistan....this is a contunuation of divide and rule and the british policy of hindu muslim divide after 1857.....the USA has all to gain from an Indo Pak conflict ,conventional or unconventional....the greatest beneficiaries of a Pakistan Indian conflict are:--

USA and CHINA
Israel

Agha Amin

Re: # 36 indian forces are far cheaper and ideally located while USA and china would like to remain at high vantage points and do not want to dirty their clothes or hands with the blood and muck of the india pakistan conflict....they know that the indians and pakistanis are stupid and can be manipulated....india is supposed to do the dirty job of USAs sweaper for cleaning the pakistani islamic nuclear mess
Agha Amin

Agha/Pavo,
Very well written and informative.
Can you please elaborate on the following
"6-Various third parties want to use both Pakistan and India against each other or against China , notably this includes both USA and China,so this further complicates the issue."
Best Regards

NGK, mind your separatists please; we know what you and your agencies are up to.

I expect that both the neighbours will not fall for this Western 911-like trap.

We will meet one day over doodh-patti.

PS: Listen to this now:

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=exvlatXpCnI&feature=related

"2- Unless both India and Pakistan are Balkanised or one of them is Balkanised - 50 %.."


There is a nice article my Sir Mark Tuli in BBC...



Russia and NATO (Allied Forces of WWII) were major culprit for the division of Germany...I am not aware of any mass movement of civilian population and genocide carried out by non-state actors (like that of during creation of Pakiland) associated with partition of Germany....it is like looking for similarity between jews of nazi germany and moslas/jihadis of 21st century...

Hotels Taj, Oberoi both insured against terror

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/hotels-taj-oberoi-both-insured-against-terr or/79588-7.html

Re: # 20
tahir...
next week couple of more drone attacks in your country...
condy will not return empty handed....

"Hindus are behind attack..."

try to convince this to the people of Israel, US and Britain, who have lost couple of their citizens...