Lessons From Another Lahore Tragedy

arjun,

The mullah-military nexus is a distinct possibility. Perhaps they strengthened each other for a while and are now fighting each other to extinction.

... but trust me, we pakis have nothing to fear … prophetboy tahmed is watching over us … very diligently … armed with a google connection. Boo!

Another 'delightful' item from the New York Times magazine article titled, 'Can Pakistan be Saved?':

"David Kilcullen, a key adviser to Gen. David Petraeus, the Centcom commander, recently asserted that “within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state� "

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/05/magazine/05zardari-t.html?ref=ma gazine&pagewanted=all

So, by October 2009, we could see the collapse of Pakistan? Anyone willing to place a bet that it won't happen?

Pakistan Paindubad! Jinnah Zindabad!

More 'refreshing' news from Pakistan today:

"MINGORA, Pakistan (Reuters) – Pakistani Taliban have moved into a new area in Pakistan, clashing with villagers and police in a mountain valley about 100 km (60 miles) from the capital, police and district officials said on Wednesday."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090408/wl_nm/us_pakistan_taliba n_ 1

When is Islamabad going to fall?

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#360 Posted by sattar2 on April 7, 2009 2:53:08 pm

dude

First of all, the paki security establishment is actively supporting the jihadis. if they haven't taken the jihadis on, it's not because there's a lack of political will. that's like saying you haven't hit your kids because there's a lack of political will to do so.

secondly, i don't know if you know who're you're discussing things with. bulleya aka romair aka capt clueless has a long and illustrious history. less than a week after 9/11, he was predicting that pakiland would now be back in america's good books. Using this position, it would march to economic prosperity and continue to support the jihadis against India. Kashmir would be free in 5-10 years he told us. He even told us the taliban weren't much of a challenge to the paki security establishment and they could be easily wiped out. So, it's not that he is against he jihadis or anything. He's fine with the whole jihadi thingy as long as they jihadis are working for the paki state and advancing the agenda of the paki security establishment.

Re: # 359

Romair:

"......and then blaming everything on india, for allowing taliban to cross the border, when in fact, it is the job of the usa army to stop the taliban on their side of the border......."

This is a very simplistic analogy you are drawing with India as the example. The admiral and special ambassador have gone to Islamabad with a huge carrot and a smaller stick. They can no longer carry a huge stick because they are not dealing with a dictator who is in power due to their support.

The huge carrot they have taken is big enough if given and accepted by right Pakistanis they can clean their house and throw or incarcerate their rascals out.

America and NATO will make an exist from Afghanistan during Obama administration. This exit can be in one of the two ways, Pakistan cooperates and uses huge carrot to clean out the house and throw the rascals, or this money will go into hands of favored talibanis and tribes to instigate fights and through it a very chaotic buffer, with certain annual budget to finance this chaotic buffer.

It is Pakistan, not the U.S. or NATO, who will decide which
the events turn out. A cleaned Pakistan with institutions built or an unstable Pakistan with a very chaotic buffer at its western borders.

Re: # 359

Romair:

".....and any war will go nuclear......"

I know you mentioned it out of context to make your point. I think you are wrong, and history of Nuclear powers testify to the contrary.

Organized armed parties go to war to WIN. Never to self-destruct or just inflict damage (guerillas do this). Pakistan cannot WIN a nuclear with India. Therefore, first stike option is useless for other than bluffing India.

In the circumstance, hot heads prevail in Pakistan (India has already said no-first strike) to launch first strike; the country that makes the first strike will get wiped, by whatever is left of India, and by the rest of the world.

All future wars between India and Pakistan will be war of attrition, and not nuclear. If Pakistani Army survives the current crisis in its present form, there will be war between India and Pakistan in the future also.

In the most likely scenario, what has begun in Pakistan at the beginning of Obama administration, will end in one of the two very different scenarios. Neither scenario will leave Pakistan to have Nuclear Bomb, even if it means India to not have.

You pakis love drinking your own coolaid. A country that is financially bankrupt cannot opt out of any "war" that it's main donor/benefactor has imposed upon it. If pakistan had the moral clarity to actually fight the good fight in 2001, perhaps they wouldn't be in this position. Even now, they are begging to walkout.....but this time they can't....no money- no honey...honey!

Romair,

You have made a plausible case that IF Pakistani leaders are united and have the will, they can handle taliban/al-qaeda on their terms, without necessarily bowing to exploitive US policies. My foremost apprehension is that the IF above is a big IF …

Most of our political leaders are easily bribed … and we keep electing the same band of crooks. One may argue that USA interference in Pak politics helps sustain this cycle of corruption. It plays to the USA’s advantage by strengthening the elements that further require and validate USA’s interference. This sounds like a conspiracy theory, but I wouldn’t cross it off the list just yet.

On the other hand the taliban issue continues to unfold, reaching an alarming stage. Fanaticism has been slowly simmering in the background in Pakistan for decades … but has mainly been a minor issue all along, far from the proportions it seems to have recently assumed. Its rise may be linked to USA’s gwot, or Zia’s policies, depending upon how far one goes back in time. The picture gets complicated …

I don’t know the answer … only trying to identify various factors …

"All that the US has to do is announce a huge sale of weapons to India. Watch your brave Generals having kittens."

....usa doesn't need to throw anything towards india.....india's military is already so much bigger than pakistan's and its economy is so much stronger, that the chance of a conventional war between india and pakistan are zero......pakistan's protection is its nuclear deterent.....and any war will go nuclear......

....in addition, i think india is, finally, starting to realize that it is in its interest that the taliban not storm through pakistan......as they will what they historically did....go after somnath.....

......the most sophisticated civilizations in the world were destroyed, eventually, by barbarians......baghdad by the khans......spain by ferdanand......surrounding areas of delhi, repeatedly, by afghans......

"What are the chances of a Libya type coup happening? Some fundo majors & colonels throw out Kayani & the other "peons of the west"?"

when the army carries out a coup, it is always by the coas....however, i think pakistani society has now evolved beyond coups.....

"Nobody else in Pakistan has the "courage" to stand up to the US, or there are more tahmed/hamid types in Pakistan than Romair cares to admit."

tahmad and hamid mian are immaterial to pakistan....they are nothing more than expat pakistanis who cannot get enough attention in michigan, so they try to show their importance, via pakistan........neither here nor there....

.....pakistani people have the courage to stand up to the usa.....but the govt. certainly doesn't.....i think maldives would stand up to the usa better......

can you imagine a usa general flying into india, holding a press conference with the indian foreign minister and telling the indian public that he is not satisfied by the number of attacks us drones are carrying out in india, so he will increase the number.....and then telling the indian army, that even though it is losing far more people than the us army, in fighting a war started by the usa, it needs to do more......

and then blaming everything on india, for allowing taliban to cross the border, when in fact, it is the job of the usa army to stop the taliban on their side of the border.......

and doing so with total disregard to suicide bombs occuring in the length and breadth of india, due to the actions of the usa army.....

i cannot even imagine a usa general doing so in nepal......

i think the americans themselves must be surprised at how bent over the pakistan govts. happen to be......

but i think the tipover point may be about to come......i think public will either reach a point, where the affluent and intellegensia will migrate out....or there will be a mass movement against any govt. that keeps supporitng us hegemony........and eventually, the govt. will have to grow some balls.......and tell the usa to get out of pakistan, where they are neither invited nor liked.....

tahmed "Because that young girl who was whipped by the taliban was the daughter of every Pakistani."

What about the young girls who were killed in a most barbarous manner by US drones, whose daughters were they? Is it only when human life can be linked to greed of the US and its ulterior motive that it becomes of any worth to you, tahmed you spineless immoral buffoon.

TNITC masadi

If, what I'm hearing from the ex military folks on Chowk, the Zia Generation of officers are a lot more conservative and more sympathetic to the ttp; they are also coming of age. Some soldiers are disobeying orders & refusing to take part in this war.

What are the chances of a Libya type coup happening? Some fundo majors & colonels throw out Kayani & the other "peons of the west"?

Nobody else in Pakistan has the "courage" to stand up to the US, or there are more tahmed/hamid types in Pakistan than Romair cares to admit.

Romair,

doesnt take much courage to just propose what youre doing on Chowk.

All that the US has to do is announce a huge sale of weapons to India. Watch your brave Generals having kittens.

...and that MLK jr moron...

TNITC masadi

Tahmed writes "Hasho: So, there was racism in 1944. Welcome to 2009. "

HP sahib this moron tahmed will never get it because he has less morals than a slug. The U.S. "Racial Project" that ensured a 'whites only' victory in WW2 was followed up through state support at home by federal entitlements to whites, the construction of the white category of previously non-whites like the Jews the Italians and the Poles etc, a one way move to the suburbs for them through destruction of ethnic enclaves, while redlining, HOLC practices and the near total exclusion of blacks from the GI bill ensured that they got segregated in the inner cities. The Paris separation was reproduced structurally at home and its legacy continues to this day revealed by all indicators of life chances that are doubly or triply worse off for Blacks, and the rates of arrests by the Criminal (in)Justice System of the US that are 1000% (ten times) higher for blacks than they are for whites. The 1964 Civil Rights Act was a farce designed to coopt the grievance of the colored in the USA and to drive their rebellion underground by co opting its language and that MLK jr.

TNITC masadi