Obama's Regional Strategy and India

CoolAL:

The bilateral relations with Canada wrt nuclear program were suspended following the Pokhran test in 1974 but negotiations are on now to revive those relations.

Pew:

Yes, the Indo-US relations are now on an independent trajectory, especially as far as the economy is concerned. The only difference would be a tilt towards Pakistan. The Pakistan army is now doing what the US wants it to do and if there is a significant blowback to the army action, the US would feel obligated to come to Pakistan's rescue.

jang#15:

Yes, the US would want India to "do something" about the Kashmir issue but really has no leverage. India withstood the entire western block's pressure on Kashmir during the non-alignment era and would be able to do so even now. This is not to say that India should not try to resolve the problem in her own self interest.

Riaz:

I am not sure if Obama administration views China as a potential rival, as Bush administration did. There are some pointers that the US is increasingly viewing China as a potential partner in solving not only economic but also political problems, such as in Korea, Iran and Sudan. This is an area where significant changes are taking place. In the developing scenario, the US may not see the need to contain a rising China or the need to seek India's cooperation towards that objective.

pmishra#10:

As others have pointed out, the US OAG's office is asking a lot or questions about accountability of funds approved for Pakistan. But, all said and done, Pakistan is a sovereign country and there is a limit to what a foreign agency can do to monitor how the funds, once provided, are spent. At the end of the day, the US has no choice but to accept what Pakistan does with the funds or stop them altogether and face the consequences.

dude40000#9:

That is quite an insightful speech. The only think that I would add is that Shyam Saran perhaps underestimates China's ability to meet a challenge, such as that of reducing dependence on exports, once its leadership recognizes it and turns its attention to solving it, as the Chinese leadership is doing now. As an example, a few years ago, everyone was predicting catastrophe in China because its banks were weak and burdened with bad loans. However, today the Chinese banks are considered to be among the strongest in the world.

pardesi#8:

"Pakistan will always be loved (although they have recently upped their price) and Indians will be just liked and hopefully respected :)"

I am not sure if Pakistanis are loved or their leaders have mastered the art of blackmailing the US, "Give us what we want or face the doomsday scenario."

DM-ji, I am sure that Obama will be leaving his office a wiser man that going in. I am equally sure the Indians will do their part in educating him and his entourage. Enjoy Mr. Haq.

He also agrees with the Pakistani elite that the support of Taleban in Afghanistan is exacerbating Islamic extremism in Pakistan and the primary cause of this extremism is the Pakistani agencies’ sponsorship of jehadi elements whose activities were directed against India.

dm saab,
r u putting words in the mouth of the pakistani elite?

One comment regarding the US-India nuclear deal.

The US nuke industry will put enormous pressure on the US administration. The fact is, India's current nuclear power generation capacity is around 3000 MWe. It will double to 6000 MWe when Kaiga 4 (202 MWe), Rawatbhata 5&6 (200 MWe each), Koodankulam (1 & 2 950 MWe each) and Kalpakkam PWBR (450 Mwe) come on line in the next year. It is now set to get to 21,000 MWe by 2020.

This is a huge pie and if Obama and congress drag their feet, then the French, the Russians, the Germans and the Canadians will make out like gangbusters. Westinghouse and GE stand to lose out Big time. They will not site quietly by and see that happen.

India on the other hand, has long established relationships with the Russians and the Canadians. The US has no special leverage after the sanctions have been lifted in the NSG. Also, India recently signed a Uranium supply deal with Kazakhstan so it is all falling into place nicely.

Re: # 16
In US and Europe, India is widely blamed for the collapse of Doha, with Wall Street Journal calling Kamal Nath as "The Villain".

Backing India's demands, including right to impose food import tariffs and end to agriculture subsidies in US and Europe, were Brazil, China and other developing nations in Asia. But Africans were angry that their trade issues, particularly cotton, were not even discussed as the negotiators from developing giants fought pitched battles with their counterparts in developed nations in Geneva last year.

Before hitting the food import tariff deal-breaker, there was a weeklong meeting of 35 trade ministers of leading countries, including Pakistan, which produced significant agreements. Dr. Manzoor Ahmed, Pakistan’s Ambassador to WTO, told Dawn that it has been agreed that the US would cut its allowable subsidies by 70 per cent from $48 billion to $14.7 billion while EU has agreed to cut them by 80 per cent.It had also been agreed that developed countries could cut their agricultural tariffs by an average of 60 per cent.

But all of that work was scuttled in the end.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Re: # 18
Executive may not be as powerful or material in India, but it does matter a lot in foreign and security policy in the US. There is clear separation of powers between executive and legislature in the US constitution, and Bush asserted executive authority over all sorts of issues repeatedly in the last 8 years.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Dost-Mittar

Relations between India and US matter less than ever before on who happens to live in the White House or 10 Safdarjang Road. Relations are driven much more by the active lobbies in both countries and the US Congress. I don't think that there is a critical item on an Indian 'wishlist' that Obama is ignoring.

nexusa, i said partnering and DEALING..it does mean at times standing firm..the west and developing world (with india and brazil leading) stood their respective ground..in other words the parties did not see any benefit in multilateral pact..they were happy to pursue bilateral deals and will continue to do so.

Re: # 15
Actually, the Doha round of World Trade talks have been in a deadlock since 2001 mainly because the developing world, led by India and Brazil among others, has refused to concede the demands made by the EU and the United States. This is despite the immense pressure from the erstwhile Bush administration brought upon India. So there is really no partnering between India and US in that regard as you suggested.

Kashmir remains a "no go" area for the Obama administration. They can support and facilitate a dialog between the two countries, they may even act as a messenger between the two, but that is just as far as they will go and no farther. The US knows that there is a strong streak of nationalism on the Indian side and instigating that will be counterproductive.

india is confident of partnering and dealing with the US in most areas like trade-commerce (WTO), and even afganistan-pakistan, general level of paki-jihadi terrorism. the only ungal that US can do, the big push button, is kashmir vis-a-vis pakistan. this is one issue where india is likely to be emotional, and intransigent and US is likely to try leverage...

offcourse this one too has limited shelf life but this is one issue where US can play the hindoo like a kathputli. hindoo will have to be really mature to play this one.