Nuclear Tests in Pakistan

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http://www.smh.com.au/news/0105/28/features/features7.html

A rogue with his finger on the nuclear trigger

The influence of Islamic extremists in Musharaf`s Pakistan creates little cause for optimism about peace talks with India, writes Amin Saikal.

The Indian Government has been bold in inviting Pakistan`s military ruler, General Pervez Musharaf, for peace talks. While the move is welcome, it should not raise expectations too high: Musharaf has so far proved no more inspiring than any other military dictator.

While Pakistan continues to suffer from serious domestic and foreign policy problems, he has focused much of his energy on how to engineer the country`s return to a civilian rule in such a way that he can take over the presidency and the military can preserve its central role in the country`s politics.

Musharaf toppled the elected government of Nawaz Sharif in October 1999, promising to restore economic and social stability, and to return Pakistan to a workable democracy. He also hoped to end its international isolation over its nuclear weapons dispute with India and its support of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Initially he refused to put a time limit on military rule, but subsequently accepted a Supreme Court decision to terminate his rule by the end of next year. But halfway through his ``term``, the general has little to boast about.

The economy continues in the doldrums, and all the major indicators show that the threat of national bankruptcy still looms large. If not for IMF bailouts, Pakistan would have already been declared bankrupt. Social divisions and communal and sectarian conflicts, which have cost hundreds of lives over the past 18 months, have persisted with no relief in sight. The port city of Karachi, Pakistan`s industrial base, has born the brunt of the disorder, making it a no-go zone for most foreign investors.

On average, a bomb has exploded every two weeks in some part of the country. Ethnic relations between Pakistan`s main national groups - the Punjabis, Sindhis, Pathans, Baluchis and Mahajirs - have remained as tense as ever. While Musharaf is a Mahajir, Punjabi generals have remained dominant in the military and the bureaucracy.

There has been no noticeable reduction in the corruption which has permeated every layer of the society. The problem is not confined to lower levels but is also rampant at the very top, involving the leaders of the military and military intelligence (ISI).

In addition, drug trafficking and addiction have reached crisis proportions.

Musharaf has likened himself to the founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk: a reformist nationalist. But he has done little to curb the growing influence of Islamic extremists, with links to the Taliban. Islamic radicals have penetrated the armed forces, particularly at lower and middle levels.

As public discontent has grown over Musharaf`s economic, social and law and order failures, he has become increasingly dependent on the support of the military and Islamic groups. He has found it expedient to leave the growing Talibanisation of Pakistan virtually unchecked.

He has been ruthless against his political opponents, clearly trying to destroy the parties of exiled former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.

However, he has let the Islamic extremists campaign freely. He and many of his close associates have publicly confirmed Pakistan`s support in the name of ``national security`` for the Taliban and Kashmiri militants fighting for independence from India. He allowed the Islamic extremists to hold their biggest public gathering ever in April in Peshawar on the border with Afghanistan where Taliban leader Mullah Omer and his protected ``guest``, Saudi dissident and America`s most wanted man, Osama Bin Laden, urged the world`s Muslims to unite behind the Taliban for a wider Jihad (holy war).

Meanwhile, he has done little to reduce tension with India. He has allowed to go on unabated the ISI tutelage of Kashmiri Islamic militants and the Taliban in reinforcing one another. He has responded positively to the invitation for peace talks, but only on the proviso that India meet the independence demand of the Pakistan-backed Kashmiri combatants.

As many Pakistanis begin to question Musharaf`s policies, the US, Britain and the European Union have also stepped up their public criticism. The US Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, recently hinted that Pakistan is a potentially ``rogue state``.

In response, Musharaf has declared that while he may hold a partyless general election before the end of next year, he would want to assume the post of president. Musharaf is poised to prove once again that military dictators generally can`t deliver democracy.

Pakistan constitutes a serious danger to regional stability: it is not only a nuclear power under military rule, but also a failed state.

The world has reason to be deeply concerned.

Amin Saikal is professor of political science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University.

I beleive that the nuclear blasts were the right thing to do. Apart from modest technological gains acheived by these blasts, these blasts also served as a big morale booster for the entire country which was lacking in self confidence and was faced with a grave threat stemming from the Indian nuclear blasts.

I however feel very strongly that the policies pursued after the nuclear blasts were flawed at best and disastrous at worst. The freezing of all dollar accounts has very badly damaged confidence in the Pakistani economy. Remittances from fellow Pakistani`s abroad have shrunk considerably. People aren`t investing in the country and have stopped donating money. Exports are anything but rising, and all this at a time when Pakistan is in desperate need of hard currency.

I think that this was a golden oppurtunity for our politicians to build upon the fervour which the nuclear blasts had created in the country. Had the right policies been pursued, I don`t have an ounce of doubt in my mind that there would have been no limit to the amount of money which the people would have been willing to give for the sake of the country. Instead politicians continue to siphon millions of dollars out of the country while the normal citizens of Pakistan bear the burden of sanctions on their backs.

I think the Pakistani Prime Minister handled a critical situation in a commendable manner. Pakistan waited patiently for an effective response from the International Community which never came. On top of the blasts we saw Indian troops taking an aggressive posture on the Line Of Control. We took our friends namely China,Iran and Saudi Arabia into confidence and took the step that was a strategic defiance of India`s aggression and misadventure.

Iam pretty fed up with views that we should have not detonated and taken a peaceful step back.When it comes to national security hard choices have to be made even if they hurt after alll is the very existence of the country not more important than anything else? We cant talk peace when a Neo-Nazi govt in India is talking of attacking Azad Kashmir, for god sakes lets see the reality the way it is not the way we want it to be.

Naufal

Thanks for the quote from the various religions and Bertrand Russell. Very interesting and enlightening.

THIS IS AWESOME!!!

now that both india and pakistan have nuclear weapons they can get rid of their troubles at last.

they should nuke their own poor, naked, malnourished and illiterate masses. most of them would die immediately, and the rest from the longer term effects of radiation. the unfortunate ones who will survive will not be able to reproduce. so only the rich, well-clothed, overweight and `literate` people will remain.

in one step both countries will increase their per capita incomes, quality of life and literacy rates. and at the same time get rid of poverty, illiteracy and endless slums.

hallelujah! let`s do it!

I am not really proud of what we did. I can`t really blame the govt. either.

But let`s remember this: we may have ``settled the score`` for now, but the war is far from over. I hope no-one here has delusions of grandeur that our economy is strong enough to exist without external support.

We are pretty badly screwed.

Courses of action IMHO:
1) Sign the CTBT ASAP. Hopefully it will have some effect in leveraging a few sanctions off.

2) Establish closer economic ties with China and especially Iran. We should make a deal with Iran for good rates on Oil in exchange for something or the other that they need (other than N-technology puh-LEASE.)

3) Try and sedate Japan. their economic support is vital.

4) Somehow reduce tensions with India. I have no clue how to do that now- a balance of terror perhaps could be leveraged(?).

Oh, check out the Dawn.com site for an opinion poll on whether or not we should have blown up the bomb. Last time I checked it was 50/50.

I hope some smidgeon of intelligence prevails on the world soon.

Faraz

pakistan has been put under a state of emergency,
the constitution has been suspended, and all
civil rights gone -per AP reports. This is
war time preperations. Anyone else disturbed
by these developments? -altaf

And so it has come to pass, that man can take pride in the ability to annihilate his fellow man. Rejoice, Pakistan, you are able to destroy cities.

The Beginning of the End.

GOP does not have the funds to make next month`s installment on its debt. The IMF is perhaps going to be pressured by the US into freezing the interim facility which keeps the cash flow going. This will result in down grading of the country`s credit rating from the present B minus, to probably EEE. The result is a total freeze on all foreign investment. This means that projects like Koh-i-Noor power, etc, stop dead in their tracts. In the very short term (2 to 10 weeks) the Pakistani currency may actually see a paradoxical boost in value against the US Dollar, but it will surely not last. Shortages and rationing will create crippling unemployment and inflation and the currency will inevitablt tumble. The first major resistence may not come till the rate reaches Rs. 350.00 against one US Dollar. Indonesia`s economic outlook will appear as paradise in comparison.

Hindustan`s eventual break-up is an inevitability, but this irresponsible act has put the dismentaling of Pakistan on the fast tract also and it may even happen sooner than that of Hindustan.

Hyperinflation is a destructive phenomenon, and Pakistan will be at its brink. If hyperinflation does hit Pakistan, it may set in by this coming winter or early next year. By next summer (if hyperinflation were to set in - the chances of which will be high) one simple meal of dal roti at a street side tandoor could cost as much as 500 rupees. We could begin to see bank note of 10 thousand, 50 thousand, and hundred thousand ruppees. The examples of Russia, Poland, Turkey, Argentina etc., are sobering reminders.

Perhaps this IS what the country NEEDS to go through before actual reform and change can begin to set in. The only thing is, it will not be the same country any more. It may take a totally new shape and form. Let`s hope whatever happens, in the end it is better for the PEOPLE of the country who are ultimately the ones to suffer from the deeds of the criminals that run Islamabad.

...SR

I don`t want to comment on whether in the context of the situation that has developed in the last 2 weeks and the world`s response to it, this test was justified or not. Certainly as the world does not appear to be serious about non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, Pakistan`s test looked inevitable at some point. I believe the world is to blame for Pakistan`s test.

Nevertheless it is one more sad day for the people who wish to see peace and prosperity in Pakistan and India (and the world in general). Evil rules : the flames of tribalism, jingoism and false pride now leap high with joy on this side of the border. We must make sure that the voices of those who seek peace drowns those amongst us who preach hatred and evil. This is a very false dawn. India has succeeded in inflicting a great injury on the future of the people of Pakistan leaving aside the damage to their own nation.

Precious resources will be diverted towards nuclear weapons development. We are entering a further period of misery.

Let not those who seek a peaceful resolution of disputes be silenced by the apparent success of the designs of evil men.