The Battle For Kosovo

Re: OMAR1974

Let me know if you agree with this assesment of the military situation in Yugoslavia after 27 days of air strikes.

It would seem, by looking at a map, that NATO is targeting specific ``choke points``. On the surface, NATO air attacks do not make any sense, but once a detailed analysis is done on the targets attacked, there is a distinct pattern. NATO is using its air assets to cut off the Yugoslavian military forces and isolate them, from reinforcements, in the Kosovo region. Contary to the press reports, NATO is not interested in de-grading them as much as it is in immobilizing them. Once it succeds in isolating them in the ``Kosovo Pocket``, the next phase of operations would be to use the AH-64 Apaches and A-10 Warthogs to eye-ball them and destroy in place and once this is done, it would create ``the permissive environment`` for the ingressing of ground troops into the region.

Those ground troops, already assembling, will not be deployed till early summer. There has been a report, unconfirmed, that NATO is planning for the use of ground troops by the end of May. There is some common sense, as to the the time frame for a ground action, in that report. Right now, the ground in Kosovo is still muddy and wet from the spring thaw and NATO will wait it hardens to support heavy armored formations. This would also suggest that NATO does not want to limit its force to the roads, believed to be mined, which can cause a log-jam of traffic and thus, make it difficult to adhere to a schedule of operations. That suggests, to extrapolate, that major cities and villages with Serb military forces will be by-passed to ``wither and die on the vine`` as NATO forces employ a blitzkreig to quickly consolidate their gains. In such an operation, the use of mechanized forces with airborne and heliborne infantry would be indicative of rapid ``drop and sieze`` tactics to control key lines of communications to aid NATO forces advancing into Kosovo proper.

A clearer picture will emerge in about 2-3 weeks, but this is what the situation seems to shaping up as. Furthermore, as the weather over the Balkans clears, the rate of air sorties will increase as NATO works through its ``target list``. I think your comment about Clinton being the reluctent bride was apt. Already public opinion seems to leaning towards the use of ground troops and sooner or later, Clinton will bow to the ``public pressure and congressional advice`` and send in the troops. Right now the administration seems to working through its own list:

1) Is my ass covered?
2) Do I need to cover it some more?
3) If all fails, is there a scapegoat?
4) Can I spin a claim of possible denability?


Presently, we are at #2, because it seems that the option to use ground forces, though denied, is no longer rejected, but hinted as still being a viable option.

It is going to be an interesting summer!

FerozK: I whole heartedly agree with your analysis of NATOs strategy in dealing with Serb forces in Kosovo. I think the tank killing phase is going to start this week as AH-64s and A-10s plus F-16s start to get near the ground and strike tanks and Apc`s. The KLA, U.S Special forces and British SAS plus Sattelite photography,

air recon missions and UAVs will be used more aggressively to point point Serb ground assets and the choppers and ground attack planes will go in for the kill. Once the bulk of the tanks and Apc`s and a significant percentage of the artillery are knocked out, the KLA will up the ante in Kosovo. The strategy of cutting off Serb forces frpom reinforcements and resupply makes perfect sense as far as NATOs target list goes thus far (April 19th).

NATO troops may indeed invade over the summer.

Clinton is doing what he is best at, allowing public opinion to come into his favor. By Summer it should be at around 60% in his favor. I think NATO would want a 10 day war. In order for that to happen they must cut off the fuel/mun supplies to the Serb forces now. Their campaign thus far makes perfect sense if this is their presumed developing strategy. Also, a slow buildup of NATO troops has been occuring. They are projected to be upto at least 20,000 NATO troops in Macedonia, and more NATO troops are arriving in Albania to help with the refugee crisis ... and to protect the Apache`s. I think NATO exaggerates the time frame it would take to deploy a large army in the region by stating 1-2 months minimum. Lets not forget that this conflict is on NATO`s doorstep. Even if Greece and Bulgaria won`t cooperate and Albanian harbours and airfields are woefully inadequate, i think 1 month is the very maximum NATO needs once a political decision has been made to invade Kosovo, considering the assets it already has on the ground in the region, including i`m sure now, the start of the buildup of an infrastructure to support a much larger number of troops.

Albania and Macedonia seem to be the most likely invasion routes. The choice of Hungary would be more politically problematic, even though the capture of Belgrade/Milosevic would acheive NATO`s political objectives much more simply than a ground war in Kosovo and a long term presence in the region to safeguard the territory`s boundaries and people with an undefined time frame. Its obviously much better and more cost effective to arm the KLA, and let it defend Kosovo itself in the long term to deter Serb aggression in the future. Long term problem of the 10% Serbs in Kosovo might make the West uneasy about arming the Albanians though.

Re:OMAR1974

NATO strategy seems to headed that way. Here is a hint; instead of watching CNN and other talk show primadonnas, watch or surf websites which discuss the types of weapons platforms deployed in the area, because that will be a better insight to the nature of any NATO operation in the region. Without going into much detail, just remember the war in the Gulf and the ``Hail Mary`` tactic used to fool Saddam Hussein`s forces! According to the reports, in NATO press briefings, the Serbs are still reinforcing their troop levels in Kosovo. If the intention is to create a pocket, the trickle would explain the lack of effort to close the gaps.

I think the F-16CJs are being used as you said in the role of forward air controllers and the AH-64s and A-10s should be in action as you suggested. The spec-ops will be used for recon, search and destroy missions and are likely to be used to create corridors into Kosovo for the ground forces to move in. Just read that elements of the 82nd Airborne are in Albania and that Blackhawks are being moved into the region!

There is an errie simlarity with Vietnam in the type of tactics which might be used. As Vietnam was intersected with rivers, Kosovo is intersected with mountains; hence the use of helicopters to move troops rapidily by overcoming natural obstacles. Incidently, this is off tangent, but the Indian Army, in 1971 war, brilliantly employed helicopters to leap-frog Pakistani river defences which our generals thought would be impregneable! We were fighting a static war and the Indian were fighting a mobile war! Using mobile tactics, the Indians merely rendered our defences useless. Study the disposition of Serb forces and you`ll see a linear pattern to their deployment. I am thinking that a NATO attack will come out of Bosnia; not from the southeast of Macedonia.

Also, those NATO troops helping the refugees are multi-tasked - they can be easily turned into combat troops! Right now, it is like a chess game. The pieces are slowly being moved and I think the use of Bulgarian, Hungarian and now Romanian airspace is a ruse to distract the Serbs from Kosovo and force them to look else where. NATO troops out of Macedonia might feint towards Kosovo and you`re right, NATO time table is intended to create uncertanity. NATO already has heavy armor in Bosnia, with IFOR, and the terrain is pretty level east of Bosnia; ideal for fast moving armor! In this case, there seems to more than one way to skin the cat!