India’s Failure of Imagination

Anil:

I think you are giving the Islamic ``fundamentalists`` in Pakistan too much importance. They have always had a certain nuisance value, and are very vocal, but the common man has never voted for them. Look at the Pakistani parliment, and you will notice there are only a couple of members who represent religious parties of any kind. Compare this to India, where the party in power is a Hindu fundamentalist religious party.

Kashmir to Pakistani common person is not a religious battle to bring a piece of land under Pakistani Muslim rule. If that were the case, Pakistan would also attempt to bring the other Muslim dominated parts of India under Pakistani rule. This would be immoral and against Islam as far as I am concerned.

Kashmir is a struggle of oppressed people against an oppressor. That is why the Kashmiris have been fighting for ten years, against a giant Indian army. That is also why India does not allow human rights organizations, like Amnesty International into Kashmir. What is there to hide? And most of all that is why India does not hold a vote in Kashmir, letting the people decide their own future.

Obviously, India is afraid if the Kashmiris are allowed to vote, they will definitely want independence, or side with Pakistan. This could turn into a domino effect for India. Currently there are other minor independence movements, i.e. Sikhs etc. going on in India.

When freedom movements get this far along, they usually succeed. That is why despite all the efforts of the Indian soldiers in Kashmir, the Kashmiris keep getting stronger and stronger.

Eventually the Indians will remove the fighters from Kargil and the other hills. 600 fighters have held of the whole Indian army and air force for this long. Obviously they cannot do it forever. But things like this will keep occuring. Afghanistan, and Viet Nam are examples that show how the big military powers have been unable to conquer a civilian population.

Pakistan should not turn this into a war between India and Pakistan. Nor should Paksitan try to get any political advantages out of this. Pakistan should just ask India to allow human rights groups into Kashmir, and a vote by the Kashmiris for their independence.

This is what will eventually solve this problem. Otherwise, India has a long drawn out bleeding wound on its hands.

A very well thought through article. However, I must say that a lot of the responses have only confirmed your initial statement

Re: anaryan

``India has correctly identified the problem. It is not Kashmir, it is Pakistan``

Whether you like it or not, there is genuine intrinsic unrest in Kashmir. I doubt you would be willing to give the Pakistani military credit for necessitating 2/3 million troops remaining in Kashmir around the year. I can tell you that if that is the average Indian`s point of view; that Kashmir is just incidental and it is the Pakistani mindset that is the problem, this problem will not be resolved. As far as the Pakistan identity is concerned, rest assured there is one. It does discourage me from thinking about a viable peace if Indians still cannot accept that FACT.

Re: Rana

Pakistanis tend to be just as cynical and given to conspiracy theories as anyone else, but most people in Pakistan (even diehard anti-Nawaz types) are not putting much stock in there being a power struggle; or Sharif being duped by the military.

Re: the actual state of affairs in Kargil

Judging from reports in western, Indian and Pakistani media it is clear that:

1. India is having a much tougher time than they originally thought they would. Everyday I read in Indian papers of several militants killed, yet the number remaining seems to stay constant at 700; this despite assurances from the Indian military that they have stopped new infiltrations. Where are these replacement militants coming from.

2. The ball is clearly in India`s court; if they cross the line (and it is a line people not a border) than there will be war. Otherwise not. lets hope for the latter.

Faraz

Rohan:

You gave an excellent bean-counters account, with a nominal strategic value. I contrast your article to an earlier one written in Chowk by FerozK, which showed strategic vision, that would require bold initiatives to implement.

Allow me explain the difference this way, if one side can obliterate the other and proclaim ``no-prisoners hold`` complete victory in Kashmir then it makes eminent sense to consider points made in the article. Otherwise, these facts are only good for applogists and romantics game of jeopardy, because this case would not close and LOOSING side would unleash such a blood bath that would put partition to shame.

The strategic thinkers in New Delhi, Islamabad, London and Washington now realize this oddity as truth. When a war cannot be conclusive, then talking (sooner or later) is the only way out.

Currently Pakistan obviously has an upper-hand, therefore wants talks to start sooner, while India for obvious reasons wants talks to be later.

Kargil would be partially resolved for now (because no solution would guarantee that new Kargil would not happen again). And this partial resolution would be accomplished through talks, to allow both sides to claim victory. That has been the history of all conflict resolutions between India and Pakistan, and current endgame would be no different. India-Pakistan independence was a partial resolution (please do not blame the British, we accepted it too). The 1948, 1965 and 1971 wars were all partial resolutions. I guess, we south asians like partial resolutions over no resolution.

Also, like Ghouri and Gaznavi, the Islamic fundamenatlist intruder (= freedom fighters) are driven by a zeal to bring their religious justice to Kashmir. They would therefore show up more than seventeen times now at India`s door. According to their logic, they have nothing to loose but everything to gain. Historically, India has provided a good testing ground for their ideology, they are not relentessly hunted in India, like in the U.S., Israel; they have significant expansion (conquests and conversions -- voluntary or involuntary)in India. Hence India a has been a very good return on their investment. It is my opinion that the fact times have changed, does not matter to them, because they, like other religious fundamentalists, live in the past religious glory.

I also do not subscribe to the notion that India and Pakistan would live happily ever after, once Kashmir problem is resolved. The fundamentalism of all shades (Hindu / Muslim) can never be simultaneously satisfied, therefore problems will perpetuate. Kashmir is a just manifestation of more deep rooted conflicts in South Asian societies. These conflicts are in the eyes of different beholders, who are unable to see the common good, and have been only seeing uncommon for several hundred years.

Gandhi and Jinnah of previous generation saw common good, but had uncommon solutions. Unfortunately, in our generation who now own the power, has failed to produce leaders who can see common good.

When you look at the map of South Asia, you find that Punjabi Muslims (72 Million) form the single largest cohesive group, right from Iran border to the gates of Red Fort. In modern times of borderless societies, this group could do wonders in this part of the world. Unfortunately, this group has chosen to drown itself into hatreds of opposing thoughts on the frigid heights of Kashmiri mountains, rather than lead this part to its historical glory. Pakistan`s cricket team and hockey team (two peacetime ventures of this group that I am familiar with)provide a sneak preview of what world-class prodcuts can be produced there.

India must develop an effective long term strategy to deal with this situation at its door. A sustainable $100-million a year, annual surgical military operation strategy on the lines of Israel`s South of Lebanon could certainly be one. However, this strategy could lead to a closer alliance between Islamic fundamentalist, drug traders and Pakistan army, which could be more harmful to India and Indian economy, simply because India is not 3-million strong country with the U.S. sugar daddy, but it is a billion poor and well on its way in the region to build a strong market economy.

Alternate strategy would, therefore, be to jump start what Vajpayee and Sharif had started through Lahore Declaration. To jump start Pakistan must immediately withdraw intruders and India must immediately initiate the jump start of Delhi-Lahore Bus, with an even bolder initiative.

In Delhi-Lahore-Kargil trajectory (as someone called it), Indian strategists should not loose the sight of an interesting development while Vajpayee was in Lahore. Sharif, a Mulsim League Prime Minister was able to control Islamic fundamentalist much easily in the civilian set up on the Streets of Lahore. While he may have little control (without Pakistan army) on them on frigid heights of Kargil mountains. India certainly does not want Pakistan`s civilian authority to loose control. Therefore, it is in India`s interest to let a democratic Pakistan control its fundamentalists. India has enough problem of its own problems.

India may need not to invest $100-million per year in an annual surgical operation. It may now have no choice but to spend certain amount to strengthen its defenses. This money would be well spent in Jammu & Kashmir to create prosperous market economy, and to economically integrate it with the rest of India.

Indian strategist can take a consolation that Pakistan`s investment in Nuclear program to use it as a threat to gain an upper hand in Kashmir has failed. The speed with which the U.S. sent a General to Islamabad; forceful and decisive intervention by NATO in Kosovo; and quick response of international community to Kargil crisis are strong indicators of a new world order. Therefore, Indians would be right, and may rethink about Pakistan-Kashmir-Nuclear dimension, and re-calculate how it can get maximum peace dividend, bring collective leadership to whole of South Asia. India may not get a permanent security council seat on its own, but South Asia can certainly get one permanent seat in the security council.

Above all India should not confuse a victory in Kargil with a victory in maintaining a status-quo in Kashmir.

Re: Ras Siddiqui #: 7

`` But allow me the benefit of doubt ...to view this work with a suspicious eye.``

I`ll second that.

Rohan,

``Our government was told clearly that hostility between India and Pakistan could not end without some concessions on Kashmir.``

Exactly what ``concessions`` are we talking about here:

(1) Plebiscite ? - after 10 years of actively supporting cross-border terrorism. After having driven out hundreds of thousands of Kashmiri hindus ? After having massacred tens of thousands of moderate muslims ?

(2) Obtaining Kashmir on a platter ? - Let us not insult our intelligence here.

(3) Withdraw from siachen ? - No ground for this since this is literally no-mans-land. In 1984, both sides began a race to occupy this ummarked but militarily useful high ground - the Indians won. Pakistan has had an eye on this for long - as seen by the repeated attempts to dislodge the Indians and occupy it themselves.

I don`t understand at all the author`s meaning of ``concessions``.

``We want good relations with India, but only after the Kashmir problem is solved. Once this is done, we can live like good neighbours,`` said one Lahori, a taxi-driver``

India has correctly identified the problem. It is not Kashmir, it is Pakistan. The ``land of the pure`` was, at its inception, a predominantly feudal system. It is now the land of unmitigated corruption, feudalism and economic chaos. In addition, there is another problem. Pakistanis have always had an identity crisis. What are they ? What are their roots ? Names like Rathod,Rana, Malik, Naik, Chauhan, Bajwa, etc. point to hindu ancestry. They have nothing to call their own - culture, language,religion, history. They cannot even claim to be representative of all Indian muslims since there are more muslims in India now than the whole of pakistan. All this has produced an unrelenting hatred - the ``India-centric`` attitude, that never fails to amaze Indians. Look at the daily news in the pakistani media for example. Small accidents,problems, deaths in remote corners of India are reported (not without a modicum of glee). If the kashmir problem were to be solved, another will take its place - the human mind is adept at creating illusions. India has correctly identified the problem. It is not Kashmir, it is Pakistan.

``While the infiltrators kill Indian attackers ``like dogs`` from the Kargil heights...``



These `dogs of war` have captured the strategic Tiger Hills according to the latest news. The kargil war has brought out the unmatched bravery and daring of the Indian soldier. To capture the heights, rapelling up inch by inch, with little to no cover, against a bunkered enemy. No napalm,asphixation bombs or poison gas was used (one can imagine what the US would have done in such a situation). The pakistan army meanwhile has earned some credentials: Fighting in civvies,Torturing captured Indian soldiers (gouging out eyes and chopping off the genitals)and running away when the Indian soldiers get too close.

A thorough and rational analysis, which reasonable people from both sides can agree with. Question is, are progressive views executable as policy? Maybe when both economies are humming along and there is more to life than bashing the enemy on the battle field or cricket field. But, right now with hawkish, weak governments on both sides, realpolitik is political suicide.

Where can I read more of Jayaprakash Narayan?

Random

UR:

In answer to your questions, Indians generally oppose a

referendum in Kashmir because

a) They have been persuaded that it is part of the sacred

motherland and not even the question of it seceding can be

raised;

b) Most know that Kashmiris would not vote to stay Indian;

c) They are afraid that other states would similarly secede in a

``domino`` effect (this is much like the thoroughly false

``domino theory`` that many US scholars used in Vietnam).

Except in regard to the north-east (which has many similar

grievances to Kashmir) this domino theory has no basis in

fact, but it is no less powerful a factor in people`s thinking

for that.

As to the exclusion of human rights organisations from the

Valley, that is not really something that most Indians would (I

believe) support, but it is the natural reaction of any South

Asian bureaucratic organisation like the Indian government to

dissenting or potentially dissenting opinions.

Veeresh and ZZ:

I can understand your angry reactions, but certainly not approve

of them. Patriotism means trying to achieve the best for your

country. It certainly does *not * mean blindly supporting it in a

disastrous, expensive and futile policy.

You probably have a (justifiably) bad opinion of the Pakistani

``establishment``. The point that gets lost in international

disputes like this is that our ``establishment`` is not much

better, and is equally capable of acting through greed,

hypocrisy, corruption and arrogance.

If you don`t blindly support our Government`s policies when the

question is Bofors, or Uttarakhand, or the 1984 riots, or the

fodder scam or any other scam -- then how come you blindly

support our Government`s policies in Kashmir?

Do you imagine that the same people who have been acting

stupidly, arrogantly, corruptly, and (most importantly) contrary

to the nation`s best interests when it comes to domestic affairs

have not been making the same mistakes when it comes to relations

with Pakistan or policy in Kashmir?

So, try not to react so vehemently; cool off, think about how the

situation can be made better rather than worse.

One more piece of advice: read up on how the Kashmir problem

became such a headache. I recommend Tavleen Singh`s 1995 book,

``Kashmir: A Tragedy of Errors``, published by Penguin India Pvt

Ltd. She is a prominent journalist who has written for (among

other papers) the Telegraph and the TOI, and has reported

extensively from Kashmir.

Rana Ransher:

I understand your concerns about the Army being independent from

Pakistani public opinion. However (and I invite Pakistanis or

others who know more about this to correct me if necessary) Nawaz

Sharif is perfectly capable of overruling the Army *if he has

public opinion behind him *.

In this case, the Army may well have started the operation, but

Pakistani public opinion supports it. Nawaz Sharif`s

consolidation of power has been unscrupulous and often

repressive, but it has left Pakistan with a somewhat stronger (if

somewhat less democratic) popular government.

I have been arguing this case for a while. I had an earlier

article on Chowk which you may have seen:

``http://chowk.com/CivicCenter//roberoi_feb2299.html``

Many analysts predicted that the bus was

not going anywhere, but since Vajpayee himself says he was

surprised at the Delhi-Lahore-Kargil trajectory of affairs, I do

think these are important points which are totally missing from

the debate at home.

Responses to UR’s questions:-

Q1) What do Indians think about allowing a vote by the Kashmiris to decide the future of Kashmir? This seems like the civilized thing to do. I think most Pakstanis would agree, would most Indians agree?

Ans: By all means, as soon as complete Kashmir is permitted, including what is now with Pakistan. But how do you define “Kashmiri”? And if it were the civilised thing to do, then wouldn’t, say, Long Island be entitled to vote itself to freedom? Or maybe Murree? Kasmiris are voting within India for the past 52 years, which is more than what they have been permitted to do within Pakistan. Also give my parents and grandparents the right to vote the Hindu and Sikh parts of Jhung back to freedom, while you are at it, why only Kashmir? So there is no point saying Pakistanis would agree when Pakistanis have been doing just the opposite all these years! You are welcome to keep Seelampur! And so on and so forth . . .

Q2) If India claims Kashmir to be its integral part, why is hesitant to allow a vote by the Kashmiris?

Ans: The Kashmiris are and have always voted in India. What they have chosen to do with their vote is their decision, very individual. Remember, just one Kashmiri M.P. brought down the Vajpayee government a few months ago, how much more proof do people want?

Q3) Why does India not allow human rights organizations like Amnesty International to enter Kashmir?

Ans: Of course they are already there, as is the world’s media. Much more than what Azad Kashmir permits. The United Nations Military Observer Group is there. We would probably allow Pakistani human rights organisations and NGOs into Kashmir but your Pakistani Government itself has shut almost all of them down, so what can we do, shall we Indians form some Pakistani human rights organisations for you, free to operate from here?

Please, UR, let us have a reasonable set of questions, not the usual stuff. Nobody is stopping anybody to fly or drive up to Srinagar, Kargil or Leh, from Delhi, by regular civilian flight or bus/car, to take a look. Come to Delhi and I shall personally drive you up to take a look, which will answer your questions better.

Mjaved: Your brave comments on the PAF notwithstanding, fact remains that your ports are bottled up (three ships with munitions for Pakistan have already been quietly brought into the Gulf of Kutch, remember, a large number of merchant ships are owned, controlled and manned by Indians) and constantly under threat (remember Karachi ’71?), while ours are open and cannot be reached by your people. Your Pakistan Air Force does not have the courage to come near the LOC or border because it is at daggers drawn with your own Pakistani Army, and as for F-16s at Skardu, the Yanks have shut off your maintenance tap. So let the matter rest, and let us not talk of military superiority when it is a subject deeper than you think. The Pakistanis have been unable to control their jihadi-Muslim/Taliban element, so now it is left to us Indians to do so, including Muslims from India. Take it as an example of showing brotherhood that we are cleaning up your slightly messy house for you . . .

IF YOU ARE A INDIAN - YOU HAVE MADE THE POINT VERY WELL?

RE: Vereesh



You are mistaken that PAF is miles away and are unwilling to engage. F-16 planes are there on CAP`s all the time. Rest assured, IAF will be engaged, if it tries to cross the border. For now IAF plays cat and mouse(meaning crosses the LOC for a very insignificant time period); PAF does the same sometime. Lately F-16 are stationed in Skardu for obvious reasons.

javed

Rohan, I agree with just about everything except
the title ``India`s Failure of Imagination``.
Indians that I have come across are extremely imaginative and talented people. About the problem
of Kashmir, they have written some of the best articles possible, some that would make the best writers of fiction in the West blush (with envy?).
Anyway great job here. It appears that
this writing makes too much sense to be popular.
But allow me the benefit of doubt on this one occasion to view this work with a suspicious eye.
These days Pakistanis in general have their guard
up. I will apologize later.

Ras

re: roberoi

Your facts leading upto the situation are all good albeit stale.
However, given the present state of affairs you are neglecting the fact that there has been no clear direction of who, what, when master-minded this war (unofficially or officially). THe WHOLE WORLD (not just India !!) is confused about who is actually in-charge in Pakistan (re: Economist article with the same title).
With regards to the present conflict nobody can explain why this current war will help anything. The power centres in Pakistan making various claims include Lashkar-i-Toiba (read their official statements in any press, this is an anti Shia group and these areas have Shias !), Harkat-ul-flavour-of-the-day (these are the guys who believe infidels must die, doesn`t matter what you and I think or the rest of the world thinks !), International Islamic merceneries, Pakistan Army regulars. It is not clear what invlovement the govt and ISI have. They keep insisting that these are ``Freedom FIghters`` while satellite images of the area in great detail are available to anyone in the world and everybody can see exactly how the ``freedom fighters`` got there and what the Pak army regulars are doing.

Now does this motley crew of warriors represent the average Pakistanis sentiment. Can this possibly solve any problems ? (It can surely cause more and it IS) The Pakistani army has harnessed Islamic fundamentalist passions in floating the Taliban which overan Afghanistan. The same kind of army masterminding is in evidence here. How long is the average Pakistani safe from this ?

Dear Rohan,

(== is what you said==)

==No one in India, it seems, has a clue what people across the border in Pakistan are thinking.==

When you start with a premise like this, which does not respect another view, what do you expect us to have, respect for you?

==Indians variously attribute this Pakistani hostility to the Army and the ISI, to ``hawks`` in the Government, and to the Pakistani people as a whole. They have devoted much debate to trying to figure out whether the Kargil infiltration was planned by Nawaz Sharif, the Army, or some other shadowy figures in the Pakistani establishment.==

Well, when the Pakistani establishment themselves make `secret` flying visits, begging for cessation of hostilities and spelling out pictures of ``jihadi Muslims/Talibans`` over riding the Pak establishment, what does the government do? It does need to find out who the enemy is, no? Or should they just say, `thank you, have some more?`

==One, they would like peace with India. Two, the Kashmir dispute stands in the way of peace.==

So, believe it or not, would the Indians, what is so new about it?

==We want good relations with India, but only after the Kashmir problem is solved. Once this is done, we can live like good neighbours,`` said one Lahori, a taxi-driver, echoing the views of many.==

Just for the records, would you like to tell us which taxi-driver, when? he has a name, a taxi number? Or is this the favourite media ploy, when in doubt, quote the cab-driver. Sheeeesh! And certainly, I can see Amritsar taxi-drivers saying the same thing!!

==A goal doubly flawed==

In this complete section, Mr. Oberoi, you`ve forgotten one thing: does your thesis want Kashmir to be independent or do you want Kashmir to be part of Pakistan?

==For anyone to cross it is not an invasion, but merely an extension of the state of hostilities that created the Line of Control in the first place.==

Oh! So sorry! You`re not invading me and you`re not lobbing shells on NH-1A, you`re just extending a state of hostility! Thank you, thank you, mi`lord! Do you even read what you`ve written, Rohan? Can you please forgive me, I`m just a truckdriver enroute Kargil, and I don`t know the difference between invasion and extension of hostility!! Supposing somebody were to assault your rear orifice, would it be an invasion or an extension of hostilities, and would it pain less either way???

==This may not be unrelated to the military`s funding crunch, which has become so severe in recent years that Army troops in Kargil are reported to lack basic equipment, like Kevlar vests, night vision equipment, proper helmets and modern rifles, while their counterparts in the Air Force lack even inexpensive naphtha flares to confuse heat-seeking missiles.==

The above is incorrect and wishful thinking on your part, and I do not what it is based on. I, on the other hand, have been there. For all their efforts the Pakistanis have not been able to touch an IAF jet since the first day, and what is more, the PAF is absolutely unwilling and unable to come within miles of the border and/or LOC. As for equipment for soldiers, sorry, Mr. Oberoi, but you would be the last person to see what they have, not because it is secret but because it seems you have your eyes shut.

==The alienation is now so deep and so pervasive``, journalist Tavleen Singh wrote in her 1995 book on Kashmir, ``that it is hard to think of a single section of Kashmiri society that does not, in its way, support the freedom movement, except perhaps the one per cent that depended on tourism as their only source of livelihood.``==

How naive! First you get rid of all the Hindus, the Budhists and most of the middle and upper class Muslims. Then you ensure the poor get dispersed over the rest of the country, too. Left behind are those who benefit from the narco trade and the malcontents. And is Kashmir only the valley?

==People in Kashmir, he said, ``feel very happy when Indian soldiers are dead``.

They said this in Punjab, and they said this in Nagaland. Please visit these two states today. Please also take a look at where the Indian soldiers fighting the best are coming from?

+++

Sorry, Mr. Oberoi. Indians, including those from Kashmir, know very well what the Pakistanis are thinking. But why should we play our hand when they want us to? As the saying goes, watch this space over the next few weeks, and if you don`t get an idea of whether we know what they think of or not, then may I suggest you gt reading glasses?

A very interesting and objective article. I would like to get your view on three questions, i.e.

What do Indians think about allowing a vote by the Kashmiris to decide the future of Kashmir? This seems like the civilized thing to do. I think most Pakstanis would agree, would most Indians agree?

If India claims Kashmir to be its integral part, why is hesitant to allow a vote by the Kashmiris?

Why does India not allow human rights organizations like Amnesty International to enter Kashmir?

Looking forward to objective answers from you.

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