A Road To Siachen

Clarification on previous post

When I said 300-400 dead I meant on an average monthly basis from here on in. Now consider the following, Kargil only cost India about 323 dead (offically doctored Indian govt stats), add to that at least another 200 dead they won`t admit to publically. Well, all that effort and it only got us about 500 Indian casulaties, after all that planning. And did it hurt India? Yes. Now what can we do to hurt India more, and raise casualties. Well, 1 SA-7 handheld SAM is not too expensive, nor is an operation requiring at most a dozen operatives in India to secure a location/residence, establish a cover, near either an IAF base or a major civilian airport and shoot down either IAF fighters or transport aircraft, or a large civilian airliner right in the heart of their country from a rooftop location. The objective must be to make them feel vulnerable. For that reason one must strike indiscriminately, relentlessly, and at virtually any target. In fact the target list neeeds to be expanded by the mujahids if we are gonna get Indians to really sit up and take notice and realize Kashmir is a no-win proposition and they are not willing to pay the cost in human/financial terms that will be imposed on India. This needs to be made personal. Yeah, it could be YOU (if you`re Indian) on that plane buddy, reading this right now. So tell me, is it worth YOUR dying so that India can continue to oppress and occupy Kashmir and Kashmiris against their wishes? And steal Pakistani land? Why is India so afraid to hold an Impartial plebescite? Supposedly as they never tire of telling us and the world, its the world`s largest democracy! So arranging one should be too difficult to manage for them IF they want to. And they don`t want to YET. So they must forced into it. Its useless talking to them. They (the Indians) should all become targets. Tell me, O` Indians, how does it feel to become a target? The only good Indian? A dead one. India GET OUT OF Kashmir!

Omar

India; Applying Pakistan`s historical lessons

The lesson from history which Pakistan must learn is that India cannot be trusted. First J.P.K Nehru lied in promising to settle the dispute amicably, and in 1962 when India was being whipped soundly by China, India got the U.S to make Pakistan to forswear any move on Kashmir in return for a promise to settle the dispute after the Indo-Chinese war. Ayub Khan, a simple soldier took their word. Once the crisis was over, the Indians became tone-deaf to the word Kashmir again. Pakistan should have seized this golden opportunity in 1962, when it was at the height of its military power and soundly whipped Indians like the common horse theives they are. For they as a country and people are no better. History has taught us that the only language that gets through to their thick skulls is when you knock their teeth out. Then one can `talk` to them. India get out of Kashmir, or the only way your soldiers will leave will be in bodybags. And if Indians wanna play games with the dead bodies of Pakistani soldiers KIA (See Dawn today), well, just remember that 2 can play this game. We can send your soldiers arthiees (cremated) back, not the bodies next time. See how you guys like that. Aglee baar hum un ka achii tarha Antim Sanskar jaisay Indian movies may dikhaatay hein, KAR KE aap ko wapaas karein gay. See how their near and dear react to that. I think it may now be well past due for some Indian embassies to be bombed around the world. I`m surprised the mujahideen have not already begun a systematic campaign worldwide. Its really the only way to force a settlement in the long term. 300-400 Indian dead every month in Kashmir/Siachin/LOC/Worldwide is an acheivable/imposeable cost. Over a period of a few years the Indian army can be thoroughly demoralized in Kashmir. Funding should be trebled. The mujahids have already started taking on the nest of vipers in their own dens (ex.recent attack on BSF camp inside Kashmir), and the IAF and the Indian army head on directly, as in Kargil. This is a good begining. Let us have more!

Omar

Re: Anarayan

My dear An, do you really think Kashmiris if given the choice, with a free, fair and transparent plebiscite would vote to remain part of India? I seriously doubt that India would get more than 10% of the Kashmiri vote. The formula for self-determination called for by U.N resolution in 1949 is really a face saving way for India to end its illegal occupation of J&K. In fact its a decent way of telling a thief (India) that we`ll, VOTE U OUT, rather than merely kick you out, which in all justice India deserves fully. You people are lucky to be treated so well, you should be treated the way India has treated its own neighbors. Get out of Kashmir while you can with some pride left.

Basically, I guess I need to teach you a history lesson, not the crap they taught you in school growing up which you evidently swallowed hook, line and sinker.

British India had a number of princely states, these states were to be given the free choice to join either Pakistan or India, no other choice was offered. Now that was the first principle. Even Indian historiofabricators should have no problems with this. Now, what India did in fact do was to deprive Munawadar, Hyderabad and Junadgah of this free choice and used force to insure they joined the Indian Union. Sardar Patel is still eulogised for this act. When this occured, the rules of the game changed. India had come out and set the precedent for breaking the basic principle on which the partition of the subcontinent was based in 1947. What this meant was that India has defacto stated that all Hindu majority states were going to be forced to join India, no ifs, ands or buts about. Now, the contrapositive of this principle is also equally simple, i.e Muslim majority areas should thus join Pakistan. You see it was India that abrogated the basic principle of partition, not Pakistan. Therefore, based on logic and fair play alone, the Maharaja`s signiture on the instrument of accession to India, AFTER he had lost control of the state was tantamount to signing a ratti ka kagaz (worthless piece of paper), which had no significance and cannot be used to legitimise Indian occupation of J&K. The U.N General Assembly decided that hey, lets ask the people of Kashmir which state they want to join. This populist principle was not the principle on which British India had been partitioned, neverthless, there is probably no doubt that the other 3 Indian princely states that were annexed would probably have, if they had held a majority vote, voted to join the Indian Union. Similarly, there is little doubt that the Kashmiri people if consulted in 1947, would also have voted to join Kashmir. It is India ironically that introduced this new principle into the partition process. The U.N General Assembly merely gave it sanction in International law. The process of partition is still unfinished today as a result of Indian-Hindu duplicity, typical of the Hindu-bunya mentality of wanting it all (the cake and eating it as well), willing to squeeze every last drop from the poor peasants given the opportunity-chance, without a care (this is an excellent characterization of India`s International behavior). Now, no where was it ever stated that the Kashmiris had the right to independence, as opposed to accession to either India or Pakistan if that is what your comments are implying.

It is only the norms of democracy, and the seemingly intractable nature of the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan that have given birth to this new notion of a third way.

Any questions? I just call a spade, a spade. No need to mince words.

Omar

Re: zeemax

Okay, to answer your question about an Indian blocade of Pakistan`s shipping lanes, the answer is that it can be effected with varing results.

On the computer sim, what became clear was that Indian Navy has the means to chortle Pakistan shipping lanes, but it will have to operate around 250-500kms from the Pakistani coast, within Pakistan`s exclusive economic zone and it will need to deploy its surface assets through the entire lenght of Pakistan`s coastline. This type of a deployment is ideal if the intention is to stop smuggling, but it limits Indian tactical options in a war. Such a deployment would put the Indian Navy`s surface assets within the combat radius of PAF`s fleet of Mirage Vs, which are armed with Exocet AIM-39 (range 45kms)and Harpoon ASM (range 85+kms)missiles. The effective range of Mirage Vs is about 1500+ kms and given the relativily short distance to the Indian ships, their capacity to loiter over the target area would be around 30-45 minutes. Thus, to avoid this threat, the Indian can only move east, because if they move west and north they will heading towards the Arabian peninsula, which raises a whole set of other problems.

Another fact to be considered is that since the Indians are without a carrier, since Vikrant is being consigned to scrap, the Indian Navy would find itself without any early warning and effective fighter cover in case if Pakistan launches an ``vampire`` - air attack. Yes, the Indians out number the Pakistani Navy in total maritime surveillance aircraft (4:1), they can warn the Indian Navy, but they can not provide an effective CAP over Indian assets, which would limit Indian Navy`s overall operational intent in interdicting Pakistani shipping lanes.

This does not mean that Pakistani shipping will have an easy time, and if the Indians deploy their assets, tactically, outside of the Straits of Hormuz, they can easily intercept Pakistan bound ships. The question then is how to identify ships bound for Karachi and the Indians can not board any vessel they like, because that would be a violtion of the admirality laws on commerce on the open seas and the biggest patron of this international law priniciple is America. I highly doubt the Indian Navy wants the American naval assets in the Arabian Gulf to moniter its movements.

The only trick to circumvent the Indian blocade, and it worked in the sim, would require the cooperation of the Iranians. If the Iranians would give safe passage, the ships bound for Pakistan can sail within Iranian territorial waters, upon reaching the western end of Hormuz, near Bahrain, and thus, simply pass into Pakistani territorial waters. Iranians might be convinced to do this, but then in return they would surely ask Pakistan to do something about the violence between sunnis and shias in Pakistan.

Hence, the whole enterprise devolves into a series of trade-offs. What is the final cost and how bad does one want to pay for it!

Hope this helps.....

Re: anarayan # 23

This belated reply is in response to your question of where I got the information on the high accident rate of the Indian Air Force. That information came from an article in The Times of India, June 13, 1998, which reported the 1998 Report of the Comptoller and Auditor-General of India. According to that report, IAF lost 187 aircraft and 63 pilots killed between 1991-97. Of the 187 aircraft, which crashed 147 were totally destroyed and beyond repair.

In a similar period PAF lost 35 aircraft.

This fact was further complimented by the Military Balance 1998/1999 of the Insitute for Strategic Studies, published by the Oxford University Press. MB`s report said that the high rate of IAF accidents was due to the fact that IAF was still using Kiran Mark II and Polish Iskra basic trainers and it was using the MiG 21UB as an advanced trainer for conversion purposes. The IAF students could not handle the MiG 21UB, because while they were accustomed to react within minutes on the Kiran, the MiG was forcing them to react within seconds. The IAF pilots were having spatial problems of reacting and antcipating situations ahead of time and this was severely impacting their sense of situtional awareness.

Situational Awarness is a term, which means that the pilot must be aware of his immediate surroundings and he must have at all times a 3D mental picture, based on the data available to him. Also, he must at all times know the orientation of his aircraft to the ground, while being mindful of his vector, altitude, speed and the energy ``bleed`` of his aircraft; thrust to weight ratios and how to continually maximize aircraft performance rates while in flight.

I think that it was Najib who mentioned that IAF suffers a high accident rate than IAF, because it pilots fly more sorties and thus log more flight hours.

This is not true either. According MB, the most hours logged per year was by the United States Air Force, which averaged about 230 hrs per year for its pilots; PAF was second with its pilots arveraging 220 hrs per year. Israeli Air Force came in at 180 hrs per year and the IAF average was 130 hrs per year.

Hope this answers your questions about the source of my infomation.

Interesting article Mr. Khan (though

I do not share many of your analysis

and conclusions).

Here is a link to an article by Eric Arnett

that deals partly with the air thinking on the part of India and Pakistan (with a relevant reference to retired Air Marshal Ayaz Ahmed Khan`s article ``Challenge of the Indian Air Threat`` in The Nation in 1997). The article

itself is larger in scope (title: ``Nuclear

Stability and Arms Sales to India: Implications for U.S. Policy).

http://www.armscontrol.org/ACT/august/arnett.html

Ilanjetchenni

Re: OMAR1974 Reply #: 37

``... but until all of Kashmir is part of Pakistan, and India ends its illegal occupation of Kashmir,India and Indians shall remain orgre(s)#1 for almost all Pakistanis``.

We HAVE (unwittingly) admitted it, have we !

At least spare us the rhetoric on ``self-determination of kashmiris`` and ``freedom struggle``. If you (ever) thought that India did`nt see through your BS, think again.

Amit #33 or 31? Anyway, Sure there are a ton of problems in Pakistan (I never said there weren`t), but until all of Kashmir is part of Pakistan, and India ends its illegal occupation of Kashmir, India and Indians shall remain orgre(s)#1 for almost all Pakistanis.

Omar

Here is a list of some more weapons projects and weapons being made by Pakistani defense industries.

The following systems are being made by Dr. A.Q. Khan Labs, at Kahuta

Surface to Air guided missiles (Anza Mk I and II);
Anti Tank Guided missile Weapons System; Anti Tank Mine Clearing Charges; Remote Control Mine Exploders; MBRLS (Multi Barrel Rocket Launcher);
Laser Range Finders; Laser Threat Senors; Laser
Actuated Target; Laser Aiming Device; Digital Goniometers; TOW Missiles Modules; Add-on Reactive Armor kits.

Also, the following systems and sub-systems are in R&D status or in prouction with the following firms:

ATCOP Drivers Night Sight for T-Series Tanks
ATCOP Intergrated Fire Control Systems
ATCOP Laser Range Finders for T-Series Tanks
(Al Technique Corp. Pakistan)

DNVP-1A Drivers Night Viewers
AN/PVS-5A Night Vision Goggles Third Generation
(Insitute of Optronics)

100mm APFSDS Tank Barrels
(Machinecrafts, Pvt. Lahore)

155mm; 130mm, 125mm, HEAT SABOT, FE, projectiles plus 125mm; 81mm, 75mm mortar rounds and small arms munitions
(Pakistan Ordnance Factories)

Below is a list of other defense related firms in Pakistan:

Insitute of Optronics
Pakistan Ordnance Factories
Dr. A.Q. Khan Labs
Al-Technique Corp.
Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (Aircraft Manufacturing Complex; Mirage and Chinese aircrafts)
Heavy Industries (production M113 APCs and Khalid MBT)
Machinecrafts
Alsons Industries
Military Vehicile Research and Development Establishment.

These are some of the defense related projects presently being undertaken by Genesis Real Time, a software company in Pakistan, for Pak armed forces.

AIR COMBAT MANEUVERING INSTRUMENTION SYSTEM

The Air Combat Maneuvering Instrumentation (ACMI) System was a joint effort between the Air Weapons Complex and Genesis Real Time. The software of this system was developed by Genesis Real Time and the airborne and ground based hardware by the AWC.

The purpose of the ACMI system is to aid the debriefing of PAF pilots after an air to air combat training mission. The ACMI system consists of airborne data recorders installed on all aircrafts taking part in a training mission. These recorders record the aircraft`s flight parameters. After the completion of a mission, the ground based debrief system assimilates all the aircrafts data and recreates the whole mission in 3D computer generated graphics for the pilots debriefing.

In this system, the mission can be played at various speeds. The users have several viewing options. They can select the pilots view and view the mission from the cockpit of any selected aircraft. Or they can select the perspective view to view the maneuvers from any point of the exercise space outside the aircraft by controlling the viewing angle and distance.

The system can display a single view on the monitor screen or split the viewscreen to show 2 or 4 independent views on the same monitor. The user can configure each split section independently to provide several different perspectives of the same scenario.


PROJECTS FOR CELSIUSTECH NAVAL SYSTEMS AB (Sweden)

Software Consultancy and Development Services

Genesis Real Time had signed a contract with CelsiusTech to provide various software consultancy and development services in 1997. This contract was renewed for another year in 1998.

Logistics Database

Designed and developed a Logistics Database software for one of CelsiusTech`s customers. Genesis was also responsible for carrying out front-end analysis and generation of a format requirement specification.

Visit CelsiusTech [http://www.celsiustech.se]


SKY TRACKER & SKY NAVIGATOR

Sky Tracker and Sky Navigator constitute a suite of software for the ground-based tracking of remotely piloted vehicles (RPV`s)/unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV`s). This software suite was developed for the Air Weapons Complex when it embarked on a project for the indigenous development of UAV`s in the middle of 1998. The software gets the UAV`s GPS positional data from a radio data link. This data is used to show the position of the UAV as a 2D plot along with essential UAV data like, speed, altitude, heading etc. This plot can be overlaid onto area maps also. This information is used by the pilot for flying the UAV beyond visual range.

The software has mission planners with way-points and labels for landmarks and mission timers. It can log the mission data and then later play it back for evaluation. The software also controls the main video link directional antenna to ensure clear reception of the Video Data from the UAV.

Sky Tracker is optimized for the use of the UAV`s pilot, feeding him critical data required for control of the vehicle beyond visual range. Sky Navigator is optimized for the use of the video / intelligence operator who controls the video data from the UAV.

These software have been developed keeping in mind the requirements of local as well as international customers.


CBT ON THE STARTING FUEL SYSTEM OF AN AIRCRAFT FOR PAF

Developed an interactive multimedia CBT application on the Starting Fuel System of an aircraft whose duration is 30 CBT minutes. The work on the application involved complete design (outlines, flows, storyboards, scripting, etc.), and development. The CBT was fully interactive and was based on audio narratives, text, custom graphics, custom animation, pictures and video (with custom narration) for just in time concept reinforcement. Hyperlinking was also used to allow the student to jump to related areas instantly. In addition to the basic lesson, it consisted of a virtual laboratory where the student could see the working of an aircraft`s starting fuel system by trying out different controls. The CBT application also allowed the student to take timed quizzes. All information generated from the quiz such as student`s name, time & date of quiz, score, time taken, etc. was stored in a database. This data can be acccessed later by the instructor or by the student.

ERICCSON GIRAFFE AIR SURVEILLANCE RADAR SIMULATOR

The purpose of this simulator is to make a new radar operator familiar with an Ericsson Giraffe Air Surveillance radar. The system simulates full functionality of the radar. The instructor can train the operators with various target profiles and numbers. The simulator software is under development for the Pakistan Army`s School of Army Air Defence. It runs on a custom built console (also under development) which is based on the actual radars operator console.

Re: OMAR1974

I think you finally caught the gist of my article. The financial drain of conducting ops in Siachen is preventing the periodic modernization of our armed forces and we can keep up the effort, but soon the law of diminishing returns will start to apply. Siachen is akin to an anchor being tied around our legs and unless we cut it off, it will take us to the bottom with it.

Since you have such an ardent interest in military aviation, let me say this. If you are flying a fighter and it has been structurally damaged, in a combat sorte, you can to an extent ``dead stick`` the injured fighter, but soon you will be faced with a choice of ejecting out of the crippled aircraft or riding it into the ground by ``augering it``. Around this time, in the back of your head there will be echo of what every cadet pilot is taught: the aircraft can be replaced, but you can not!

What are you going do? Remember, your country has more invested in your training, skills, and experince as fighter pilot than it has in the aircraft you`re flying. It takes, on an average 4 years to graduate from an air force academy plus 2 years of flight training and then another 1-2 years of conversion training to become accustomed to the aircraft type you would be flying. This does not include the years of ``on hand`` training learning the flight performance envelope of the aircraft and fully learning how to operate its avionics suite to its fullest potential.

On the other hand, it takes approximately two months to produce a fighter aircraft. If Siachen is the aircraft, the finances are the pilot and the cost does not justify the expenditure.

On a different note; never ever under any condition underestimate your adversary!

Your comment that if it had not been for Siachen, the fighting would be in the environs of Gilit is an apt point. The LoC is a political problem personified within a military facade and its final solution will rest with a political settlement, not a military one. In a strategic sense, Kargil will force the Indians to be more deeply committed to LoC militarily, but will not offer the Indians any sense of long term security in the region either.

Re: Omar1974 #31

While you are ranting and raving against Indians, can you care to explain the Pakistani government`s policies in this calendar year ? First, Nawaz invites Vajpayee to Lahore. The India visit is celebrated with pomp and festivities. People start getting visas to Pakistan and celebraties start shuttling between Delhi and Lahore. The two PMs decide to move from their stated positions and negotiate on Kashmir and Vajpayee pays his tributes at the Minar. Then, all of a sudden, Pakistan sends hundreds of mujahedin to Kargil and carries out a war like situation for the last few weeks. The mujahedins are trained to fight high altitude warfare and possess Stinger missiles etc. Thirdly, when things are heating up, Nawaz goes to Washington D.C., agrees to withdraw the Mujahedin and work towards peace.

Can you explain the rationale behind this series of schizophrenic actions ? Pakistan talks about internationalizing the Kashmir issue, as if this would make a big difference. The reality is that Pakistan has just suffered a massive defeat in its Kashmir policy. The defeat is not just militarily but from a strategic point of view. It can never again violate the LOC, as it has officially accepted the sanctity of the LOC. India is going to beef up the LOC patrolling to unprecedented levels. Moreover, this conflict proves that nuclear weapons have not provided Pakistan with any major advantage. When push came to shove, it had to back off. Finally, this episode has strongly united Indian society. Note that there were no communal riots in India and even the Kashmiris did not create any major internal problems.

The fact of the matter is that your country is led by third class people who do not have any idea about how to build a strong, powerful nation. While you can give gaalis to Indians, you should realize that your nation is going to the dogs. Just look at the ethnic, sectrian violence, complete breakdown in law and order, pervasive corruption, rock bottom literacy levels, massive overpopulation, violent fanaticism and the myriad number of problems in Pakistan. Yet it wants to play games with India and waste its resources. The subcontinent has seen a number of muslim administrations in the past such as Afghans, Mughals, Nizam etc. If you compare all of them based on socio-economic conditions, Pakistan will rank at the bottom.

Re: Omar1947

U should know better about how a freedom fighter is more capable than an army wala. Ha..Ha..Ha

I for one don`t care about Kashmir being a part of India or not. All i am bothered about is how to keep my country from becoming a Hindu Pakistan.

Iconoclast

Re: ``By the way, a lot of Mohajirs and Balochis, Ahmadiyas and Sindhis also rejoice the death of Paki soldiers (the Paki military is dominated by arrogant Panjabis).``

Well Well Well!! Why do all Indians talk crap all the time?? I am a decent of people who migrated from India, and many people like me rejoice only when we (the gallant Pak Army) knock down Indian Migs and Indian butts! like we did at Pathankot in `65!

Siachin`s value: Feroz, if Pakistan hadn`t stopped India at Siachin the skirmishes would now be going on around Gilgit, Chitral, Skardu, Hunza valley etc. So, we had to draw a line in the ice to prevent the Indians coming down on our side of the Loc. The Siachin dispute shows the true face of India. Pakistan has been aclling for the area to be demilatrized by both sides, without either giving up its claims, and with 3rd party verification (U.S sattelites) this would be a simple matter to implement thus ending a useless military confrontation that is costly to both countries in lives and finances, and benefits neither in any tangible way, unless Indian military planners see it as a useful drain on Pakistani finances and are using it to constrain Pakistan`s ability to finance new weapon systems. That is really the only thing that makes sense. Just goes to show how miserable India is as a country which suffers from widespread poverty yet, it prefers to spend hundreds of millions of dollars annually on a useless conflict, resources which is both countries mutually set aside could help eradicate illiteracy for starters in the subcontinent. Indians are generally useless people. The only language them seem to understand is when you knock out their teeth first, before talking to them. Talking is useless anyway, waste of time/money if we look at the `results` of past talks. Thick headed, illiterate, lungi clad, half starving, pagan idol worshipping fools piloting

Su-31s! (grin)

Btw, difference between U.S and Indian citizenship, since both are ethnically/religiously diverse. In India, there is a lack of opportunity for the masses. Economics is a great leveler in the U.S.

Re: Omar and Najib

Gentlemen, lets keep this interact civil and lets refrain from nationalistic bravados in these posts. Lets not forget, regardless of which side of the border we hail from, that men are dying daily and a whole new generation will grow up with a sense of animosity towards each other; what have we really gained as nation from this mess?

Najib # 22

I hope this does not offend you, but your defense of India at times sounds too shrill. I respect your sense of civic patriotism and responsibility towards India, but your repeated cries of indignation only cause to raise questions about your own sense of patriotism. Remember what Winston Churchill once said: patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

As to the Pakistani reinforcements, you have to remember that what Sharif-Clinton agreed to was for a political settlement, not a military one, to the crisis. There is still a state of war going on and the tactical situation is still fluid. Until the Indian ops are done and the Indian military goes into a down cycle, prudence demands, just like your naval buildup, that Pakistani units stay there too in the interests of reciprocity.

I am not going get into the details of trying to convince you one way or another and you are entitled to your own believes, but let ask you these questions. Do you really think this op was ad hoc? What has India won? Can India effectivily prevent the ingresses along the LoC now and if not, do you think that the Indian military situation has improved overall as result of Kargil?

Re: Omar # 21

Welcome back ol` buddy!

In the present day and age, a nation`s military power is simply an extension of its economic viability. It is a symbiotic relationship and in the case of Siachen, the value of Siachen is in political terms, and its has no military utility. Why do you think Zia`s initial reaction was to ignore it and he only ordered Pakistani units to deploy there to mollify the pro-Kashmiri lobby.

The final control of Siachen, by either side, will not greatly effect the final disposition of the LoC and Siachen is simply an irritant, not a solution to the final political settlement of Kashmir. Does Siachen justify the opportunity costs being suffered by Pakistan`s military?

On a tangent, the high rate of accidents which have plaqued the IAF can to an extent be blamed on the three conditions you listed, but the real reason is the IAF has no modern jet trainer for converting its pilots to its advanced fighters. Presently, the IAF is talking about procuring an advanced trainer and is thinking about the German Alpha jet and BAe Hawker, but the nature of Indian bureaucracy is delaying a final choice in the matter.

Also, if memory serves me right, the IAF was forced to trade its combat readiness for a high rate of maintaince in its aircraft; a cruel choice for any air force. I tend to agree with your overall analysis, but where I disagree with you is on the committment of the IAF pilots. It takes an exceptionally brave man to put his life on the line in a hurtling piece of machinery, specially when he knows that the odds are against him from coming back alive. In this case, the Indian bureaucracy seems to have done what PAF had always hoped for, because it has effectivily grounded the IAF.

Air combat ops are exteremely unforgiving. This applies to both PAF and IAF pilots. There is 1/3 that the aircraft will ``flame out`` on takeoff; then there is 1/3 chance it will suffer a malfunction in-flight and crash and then there is 1/3 chance that it will crash on landing. Every time time a pilot goes up, the odds increase against him and sooner or later he will have to pay the piper and if he is lucky, he will live to tell about it.

Re: Zeemax # 24

In short, Pakistan would strave from a lack of critical imports, i.e. oil! :)

I will get back to you on this, because I will have to input the factors into my computer sim and ``create`` such a scenerio to know what might happen. On a prima facie level, given the fact that the Indians are presently without a carrier in the region, Indian interdiction would seem to be high risk, because their surface assets would be vunerable. Mind you it can be done, but the question is just what costs are the Indians willing to pay for it.

Pakistan Navy is operating 24hr maritime patrols and it is keeping a sharp eye over sea lanes into Karachi, so the element of suprise is not with the Indians. A naval blocade is traditionally an act of war and that is a political decision and that would depend more on political imperatives than a militarily rationale.

Re: anarayan # 23

``Dear Feroz`` !!!! When did you get so formal?

That info on the T-80UD came from an article in the Washington Post about a month ago; search the e-archives of the WP and you should find the article in question. The comment on the pay of Indian forces came from India Today and so did the middle class comment on its officer corps. IAF`s lack of spare parts came from a variety of aviation journals; notably Jane`Defence Weekly, which brought up the issue of a lack of a trainer for the IAF.

Glad to keep you amused!

Najib: All figures are corroborated from INDIAN sources. As for HAL, i really wouldn`t boast too much about its abilities, the proof is in the pudding/crash rates of al locally assembled aircraft. If Sweden had a rough time even in partnership with Bae in developing the flight control fly by wire system of the Grippen with crashes of prototypes, i seriously doubt India can master the technology, even with imported Russian and U.S technology with which its aircraft are to be built from supplied kits for the most part. Indians bend with the wind, thats why they survived, they compromised and adapted to the ways of those that invaded them for thousands of years. In doing so, they compromised their identity for survival on a regular basis. Indians therefore are a malleable people w/o a real identity. This is the basic reason why they feel they cannot lose Kashmir, because Assam, West Bengal etc will be next. This small crisis alone showed how thin India`s resources are spread. And this is just the begining. Brace up for more. India get out of Kashmir! And take all quisling `muslims` of the Chief minister-collaborator of Kashmir`s ilk with you. They wouldn`t be alive for 24 hours w/o your security protection.