A Road To Siachen

These are some of the defense related projects presently being undertaken by Genesis Real Time, a software company in Pakistan, for Pak armed forces.

AIR COMBAT MANEUVERING INSTRUMENTION SYSTEM

The Air Combat Maneuvering Instrumentation (ACMI) System was a joint effort between the Air Weapons Complex and Genesis Real Time. The software of this system was developed by Genesis Real Time and the airborne and ground based hardware by the AWC.

The purpose of the ACMI system is to aid the debriefing of PAF pilots after an air to air combat training mission. The ACMI system consists of airborne data recorders installed on all aircrafts taking part in a training mission. These recorders record the aircraft`s flight parameters. After the completion of a mission, the ground based debrief system assimilates all the aircrafts data and recreates the whole mission in 3D computer generated graphics for the pilots debriefing.

In this system, the mission can be played at various speeds. The users have several viewing options. They can select the pilots view and view the mission from the cockpit of any selected aircraft. Or they can select the perspective view to view the maneuvers from any point of the exercise space outside the aircraft by controlling the viewing angle and distance.

The system can display a single view on the monitor screen or split the viewscreen to show 2 or 4 independent views on the same monitor. The user can configure each split section independently to provide several different perspectives of the same scenario.


PROJECTS FOR CELSIUSTECH NAVAL SYSTEMS AB (Sweden)

Software Consultancy and Development Services

Genesis Real Time had signed a contract with CelsiusTech to provide various software consultancy and development services in 1997. This contract was renewed for another year in 1998.

Logistics Database

Designed and developed a Logistics Database software for one of CelsiusTech`s customers. Genesis was also responsible for carrying out front-end analysis and generation of a format requirement specification.

Visit CelsiusTech [http://www.celsiustech.se]


SKY TRACKER & SKY NAVIGATOR

Sky Tracker and Sky Navigator constitute a suite of software for the ground-based tracking of remotely piloted vehicles (RPV`s)/unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV`s). This software suite was developed for the Air Weapons Complex when it embarked on a project for the indigenous development of UAV`s in the middle of 1998. The software gets the UAV`s GPS positional data from a radio data link. This data is used to show the position of the UAV as a 2D plot along with essential UAV data like, speed, altitude, heading etc. This plot can be overlaid onto area maps also. This information is used by the pilot for flying the UAV beyond visual range.

The software has mission planners with way-points and labels for landmarks and mission timers. It can log the mission data and then later play it back for evaluation. The software also controls the main video link directional antenna to ensure clear reception of the Video Data from the UAV.

Sky Tracker is optimized for the use of the UAV`s pilot, feeding him critical data required for control of the vehicle beyond visual range. Sky Navigator is optimized for the use of the video / intelligence operator who controls the video data from the UAV.

These software have been developed keeping in mind the requirements of local as well as international customers.


CBT ON THE STARTING FUEL SYSTEM OF AN AIRCRAFT FOR PAF

Developed an interactive multimedia CBT application on the Starting Fuel System of an aircraft whose duration is 30 CBT minutes. The work on the application involved complete design (outlines, flows, storyboards, scripting, etc.), and development. The CBT was fully interactive and was based on audio narratives, text, custom graphics, custom animation, pictures and video (with custom narration) for just in time concept reinforcement. Hyperlinking was also used to allow the student to jump to related areas instantly. In addition to the basic lesson, it consisted of a virtual laboratory where the student could see the working of an aircraft`s starting fuel system by trying out different controls. The CBT application also allowed the student to take timed quizzes. All information generated from the quiz such as student`s name, time & date of quiz, score, time taken, etc. was stored in a database. This data can be acccessed later by the instructor or by the student.

ERICCSON GIRAFFE AIR SURVEILLANCE RADAR SIMULATOR

The purpose of this simulator is to make a new radar operator familiar with an Ericsson Giraffe Air Surveillance radar. The system simulates full functionality of the radar. The instructor can train the operators with various target profiles and numbers. The simulator software is under development for the Pakistan Army`s School of Army Air Defence. It runs on a custom built console (also under development) which is based on the actual radars operator console.

Re: OMAR1974

I think you finally caught the gist of my article. The financial drain of conducting ops in Siachen is preventing the periodic modernization of our armed forces and we can keep up the effort, but soon the law of diminishing returns will start to apply. Siachen is akin to an anchor being tied around our legs and unless we cut it off, it will take us to the bottom with it.

Since you have such an ardent interest in military aviation, let me say this. If you are flying a fighter and it has been structurally damaged, in a combat sorte, you can to an extent ``dead stick`` the injured fighter, but soon you will be faced with a choice of ejecting out of the crippled aircraft or riding it into the ground by ``augering it``. Around this time, in the back of your head there will be echo of what every cadet pilot is taught: the aircraft can be replaced, but you can not!

What are you going do? Remember, your country has more invested in your training, skills, and experince as fighter pilot than it has in the aircraft you`re flying. It takes, on an average 4 years to graduate from an air force academy plus 2 years of flight training and then another 1-2 years of conversion training to become accustomed to the aircraft type you would be flying. This does not include the years of ``on hand`` training learning the flight performance envelope of the aircraft and fully learning how to operate its avionics suite to its fullest potential.

On the other hand, it takes approximately two months to produce a fighter aircraft. If Siachen is the aircraft, the finances are the pilot and the cost does not justify the expenditure.

On a different note; never ever under any condition underestimate your adversary!

Your comment that if it had not been for Siachen, the fighting would be in the environs of Gilit is an apt point. The LoC is a political problem personified within a military facade and its final solution will rest with a political settlement, not a military one. In a strategic sense, Kargil will force the Indians to be more deeply committed to LoC militarily, but will not offer the Indians any sense of long term security in the region either.

Re: Omar1974 #31

While you are ranting and raving against Indians, can you care to explain the Pakistani government`s policies in this calendar year ? First, Nawaz invites Vajpayee to Lahore. The India visit is celebrated with pomp and festivities. People start getting visas to Pakistan and celebraties start shuttling between Delhi and Lahore. The two PMs decide to move from their stated positions and negotiate on Kashmir and Vajpayee pays his tributes at the Minar. Then, all of a sudden, Pakistan sends hundreds of mujahedin to Kargil and carries out a war like situation for the last few weeks. The mujahedins are trained to fight high altitude warfare and possess Stinger missiles etc. Thirdly, when things are heating up, Nawaz goes to Washington D.C., agrees to withdraw the Mujahedin and work towards peace.

Can you explain the rationale behind this series of schizophrenic actions ? Pakistan talks about internationalizing the Kashmir issue, as if this would make a big difference. The reality is that Pakistan has just suffered a massive defeat in its Kashmir policy. The defeat is not just militarily but from a strategic point of view. It can never again violate the LOC, as it has officially accepted the sanctity of the LOC. India is going to beef up the LOC patrolling to unprecedented levels. Moreover, this conflict proves that nuclear weapons have not provided Pakistan with any major advantage. When push came to shove, it had to back off. Finally, this episode has strongly united Indian society. Note that there were no communal riots in India and even the Kashmiris did not create any major internal problems.

The fact of the matter is that your country is led by third class people who do not have any idea about how to build a strong, powerful nation. While you can give gaalis to Indians, you should realize that your nation is going to the dogs. Just look at the ethnic, sectrian violence, complete breakdown in law and order, pervasive corruption, rock bottom literacy levels, massive overpopulation, violent fanaticism and the myriad number of problems in Pakistan. Yet it wants to play games with India and waste its resources. The subcontinent has seen a number of muslim administrations in the past such as Afghans, Mughals, Nizam etc. If you compare all of them based on socio-economic conditions, Pakistan will rank at the bottom.

Re: Omar1947

U should know better about how a freedom fighter is more capable than an army wala. Ha..Ha..Ha

I for one don`t care about Kashmir being a part of India or not. All i am bothered about is how to keep my country from becoming a Hindu Pakistan.

Iconoclast

Re: ``By the way, a lot of Mohajirs and Balochis, Ahmadiyas and Sindhis also rejoice the death of Paki soldiers (the Paki military is dominated by arrogant Panjabis).``

Well Well Well!! Why do all Indians talk crap all the time?? I am a decent of people who migrated from India, and many people like me rejoice only when we (the gallant Pak Army) knock down Indian Migs and Indian butts! like we did at Pathankot in `65!

Siachin`s value: Feroz, if Pakistan hadn`t stopped India at Siachin the skirmishes would now be going on around Gilgit, Chitral, Skardu, Hunza valley etc. So, we had to draw a line in the ice to prevent the Indians coming down on our side of the Loc. The Siachin dispute shows the true face of India. Pakistan has been aclling for the area to be demilatrized by both sides, without either giving up its claims, and with 3rd party verification (U.S sattelites) this would be a simple matter to implement thus ending a useless military confrontation that is costly to both countries in lives and finances, and benefits neither in any tangible way, unless Indian military planners see it as a useful drain on Pakistani finances and are using it to constrain Pakistan`s ability to finance new weapon systems. That is really the only thing that makes sense. Just goes to show how miserable India is as a country which suffers from widespread poverty yet, it prefers to spend hundreds of millions of dollars annually on a useless conflict, resources which is both countries mutually set aside could help eradicate illiteracy for starters in the subcontinent. Indians are generally useless people. The only language them seem to understand is when you knock out their teeth first, before talking to them. Talking is useless anyway, waste of time/money if we look at the `results` of past talks. Thick headed, illiterate, lungi clad, half starving, pagan idol worshipping fools piloting

Su-31s! (grin)

Btw, difference between U.S and Indian citizenship, since both are ethnically/religiously diverse. In India, there is a lack of opportunity for the masses. Economics is a great leveler in the U.S.

Re: Omar and Najib

Gentlemen, lets keep this interact civil and lets refrain from nationalistic bravados in these posts. Lets not forget, regardless of which side of the border we hail from, that men are dying daily and a whole new generation will grow up with a sense of animosity towards each other; what have we really gained as nation from this mess?

Najib # 22

I hope this does not offend you, but your defense of India at times sounds too shrill. I respect your sense of civic patriotism and responsibility towards India, but your repeated cries of indignation only cause to raise questions about your own sense of patriotism. Remember what Winston Churchill once said: patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

As to the Pakistani reinforcements, you have to remember that what Sharif-Clinton agreed to was for a political settlement, not a military one, to the crisis. There is still a state of war going on and the tactical situation is still fluid. Until the Indian ops are done and the Indian military goes into a down cycle, prudence demands, just like your naval buildup, that Pakistani units stay there too in the interests of reciprocity.

I am not going get into the details of trying to convince you one way or another and you are entitled to your own believes, but let ask you these questions. Do you really think this op was ad hoc? What has India won? Can India effectivily prevent the ingresses along the LoC now and if not, do you think that the Indian military situation has improved overall as result of Kargil?

Re: Omar # 21

Welcome back ol` buddy!

In the present day and age, a nation`s military power is simply an extension of its economic viability. It is a symbiotic relationship and in the case of Siachen, the value of Siachen is in political terms, and its has no military utility. Why do you think Zia`s initial reaction was to ignore it and he only ordered Pakistani units to deploy there to mollify the pro-Kashmiri lobby.

The final control of Siachen, by either side, will not greatly effect the final disposition of the LoC and Siachen is simply an irritant, not a solution to the final political settlement of Kashmir. Does Siachen justify the opportunity costs being suffered by Pakistan`s military?

On a tangent, the high rate of accidents which have plaqued the IAF can to an extent be blamed on the three conditions you listed, but the real reason is the IAF has no modern jet trainer for converting its pilots to its advanced fighters. Presently, the IAF is talking about procuring an advanced trainer and is thinking about the German Alpha jet and BAe Hawker, but the nature of Indian bureaucracy is delaying a final choice in the matter.

Also, if memory serves me right, the IAF was forced to trade its combat readiness for a high rate of maintaince in its aircraft; a cruel choice for any air force. I tend to agree with your overall analysis, but where I disagree with you is on the committment of the IAF pilots. It takes an exceptionally brave man to put his life on the line in a hurtling piece of machinery, specially when he knows that the odds are against him from coming back alive. In this case, the Indian bureaucracy seems to have done what PAF had always hoped for, because it has effectivily grounded the IAF.

Air combat ops are exteremely unforgiving. This applies to both PAF and IAF pilots. There is 1/3 that the aircraft will ``flame out`` on takeoff; then there is 1/3 chance it will suffer a malfunction in-flight and crash and then there is 1/3 chance that it will crash on landing. Every time time a pilot goes up, the odds increase against him and sooner or later he will have to pay the piper and if he is lucky, he will live to tell about it.

Re: Zeemax # 24

In short, Pakistan would strave from a lack of critical imports, i.e. oil! :)

I will get back to you on this, because I will have to input the factors into my computer sim and ``create`` such a scenerio to know what might happen. On a prima facie level, given the fact that the Indians are presently without a carrier in the region, Indian interdiction would seem to be high risk, because their surface assets would be vunerable. Mind you it can be done, but the question is just what costs are the Indians willing to pay for it.

Pakistan Navy is operating 24hr maritime patrols and it is keeping a sharp eye over sea lanes into Karachi, so the element of suprise is not with the Indians. A naval blocade is traditionally an act of war and that is a political decision and that would depend more on political imperatives than a militarily rationale.

Re: anarayan # 23

``Dear Feroz`` !!!! When did you get so formal?

That info on the T-80UD came from an article in the Washington Post about a month ago; search the e-archives of the WP and you should find the article in question. The comment on the pay of Indian forces came from India Today and so did the middle class comment on its officer corps. IAF`s lack of spare parts came from a variety of aviation journals; notably Jane`Defence Weekly, which brought up the issue of a lack of a trainer for the IAF.

Glad to keep you amused!

Najib: All figures are corroborated from INDIAN sources. As for HAL, i really wouldn`t boast too much about its abilities, the proof is in the pudding/crash rates of al locally assembled aircraft. If Sweden had a rough time even in partnership with Bae in developing the flight control fly by wire system of the Grippen with crashes of prototypes, i seriously doubt India can master the technology, even with imported Russian and U.S technology with which its aircraft are to be built from supplied kits for the most part. Indians bend with the wind, thats why they survived, they compromised and adapted to the ways of those that invaded them for thousands of years. In doing so, they compromised their identity for survival on a regular basis. Indians therefore are a malleable people w/o a real identity. This is the basic reason why they feel they cannot lose Kashmir, because Assam, West Bengal etc will be next. This small crisis alone showed how thin India`s resources are spread. And this is just the begining. Brace up for more. India get out of Kashmir! And take all quisling `muslims` of the Chief minister-collaborator of Kashmir`s ilk with you. They wouldn`t be alive for 24 hours w/o your security protection.

This is in response to OMAR1974 (re#26).

You really are ffrustrated, aren`t you? You simply are unable to hide your racial/religious hatred (that is why you refer to Indian women having the `saffron` mark, forgetting that there are more Muslims, Christians, and others in India than Pakistan).

Now, let me briefly comment on the points you make.

First, you say India is all about poor quality. Look who is talking! The Pakis cannot even make needles and pins without Chinese or other assistance.

May be we have had more aircraft losses than the (non)Islamic PAF. That is because our pilots fly more training missions than yours, and also, it is only the older aircraft that have problems. Indeed, over the next few years, we plan to phase out the older planes as new ones are inducted.

Our engineers and facilities are world class. That is why over HALF of all H-1 (hi-tech) work permits granted by the US go to Indians. Now, does that mean that our best and brightest are not opting for defence services? Not really. You see, due to our huge population, even after a large number of individuals joining private sector or going abroad, we do not have any shortage of bright and committed individuals. We are not intellectually bankrupt like the Pakis. By the way, all over the world, militaries are now having to try harder to attract the cream of the cream, and we are no exception.

Regarding your remark that Indians are not willing to die for their motherland, who do you think are responsible for kicking the butts of Paki soldiers in 1965, 1971, and now in Siachen and Kargil? If you read TIME (July 12, 1999), you will see Pakis telling tales of the heroic deeds of Indian soldiers. Remember, we Indians have survived over 7000 years. Inshallah, we will be the victors in every challenge that comes by. You cannot even begin to imagine the patriotic feelings among our men, women, and children irrespective of religion and background (am proud to say).

You wrongly claim that Indians in the state of Kashmir rejoice the shahadat of Indian soldiers. What`s the proof? From where do you get such information? From the `free`(Ha!Ha!) Paki press & media that has to print what the Islamic fundamentalist Paki government wants? By the way, a lot of Mohajirs and Balochis, Ahmadiyas and Sindhis also rejoice the death of Paki soldiers (the Paki military is dominated by arrogant Panjabis).

You refer to us as `kabutars` (pigeons). Pigeons are the symbols of peace. Yes, we are all for peace, but will defend our holy motherland at all costs; make no mistake.

Finally, a comment on how eagerly (unlike us), you Pakis keep coming up with ``numbers`, ``figures`` and ``facts``. This is an old trick to make the gullible believe the trash you dish out. Where do you get all those ``facts``? From your fundamentalist media whose job is to churn out crap (otherwise they will be screwed like Najam Sethi)? Or from your corrupt generals who need to keep your sinking morale up (otherwise the Pakistani people will start asking about what happened to all those billions of rupees)?

Stop hating blindly. Think. Analyze.

Let there be peace and tolerance.

Re: Anarayan`s comments

Hahaha An! Don`t even mention HAL producing MIGs in front of the poor IAF pilots that have to fly them, you`ll hear an earful that would make a

whore blush. India has lost 12 aircraft plus appx 3 probables in the last 4 months (only 2 admitted combat losses 1 Mig, 1 Mi-17), i.e the rest to maintenace problems; they have crashed and IAF pilots have been killed in the Mig21 `deathbed`, (pun on the `fishbed`:) especially. In the 80s and uptil 1995 the IAF was losing 40 aircraft a year (in peacetime!)to crashes alone. So, this can only be accounted for by a combination of 3 factors 1) Poor pilot flying skills, (and each subsequent crash only lowers morale further, and keeps bright, intelligent Indian Individuals away from the Airforce to say nothing of the pay scale) 2) Poor standards of local manufacture by HAL and quality of production 3) Poor maintenace (here also, pay scales determine the quality of individuals that join to serve and this quality is obviously not at a par with the PAF, as in the case of pilots as well).

How else do you explain the fact away that the IAF has had very high `accident` rates over the past 12-15 years. (There was some improvement from 1995 on after a concerted program, but it all seems to be sliding away now). Every crash, every death during peacetime is a dagger piercing the heart of the IAFs Pilots cadres. Will i be next, will my engine fail today/tommorrow ...? is the unspoken thought on most IAF pilots minds, to say nothing of their wives and family`s worries. There are at any given time over 300 pending letters of resignation at IAF HQ from pilots (Source Bharat-Rakshak site I believe from memory). The best simply want out, whats left is garbage just keeping its fingers crossed until the next engine failure (forget about encounters with the PAF being a likely cause of death for right now, when that happens there are gonna be a lot more ladies in India permenantly wearing white, with the saffron wiped off their heads like we see in dramatic moments in Indian flicks). Oh, the tears of the widows, can all be laid at the doorsteps of the 3 above factors. Its a known fact that nowadays only below average people with few other prospects in life join the Indian armed forces. The smart ones for whom the private sector can pay their real value (like the case of the webmaster of the 1965 site on Bharat-Rakshak) get out pretty fast.

On the other hand its also a well known fact that the PAF selects only 1/100 applicants after screening and maintains high quality. And the PAF is also flying old aircraft, but its Falcons (Cheels/eagles) are not just falling out of the sky at the rate the IAFs pigeons (kabutars) are!:) so, pardon my smug hehehe at your attempt to speak highly of HAL manufacturing Migs (now or in the future). The fact is the Indians are just inferior quality material. And will remain such, until they can pay better and motivate better. The fire in their bellies is missing. The willingness to take risks and to die if necessary is missing in this bunch of jokers-mediocres. Dal-roti and lungi plus chappals are their raison d`etre, not a willingness to embrace martyrdom (for what? Possibility of reincarnation as cats/dogs/Cows/etc?) Gimme a break buddy. Ain`t too likely. They have NOTHING worth dying for at stake. Thats India`s problem and that is the difference between them and the mujahideen who continue their stuggle against over half a million soldiers/police in Kashmir even today. The death of every Indian soldier is being celebrated in Indian occupied Kashmir by Indian citizens today. So you open your eyes!

Omar

FerozK :

The naval doctrines analysed by you make a lot of sense i.e. India geared for open sea warfare (air-craft carrier based strategy) while Pakistan geared for coastal warfare (submarines, gunboats)in a defensive mode.

What would be the scenario in the case of a naval blockade of the merchant shipping lanes leading to Karachi in the open sea ? I understand this option was seriously considered by India of being the ONLY viable one to gain bargaining power over Kargill, given it`s disadvantageous position in land and air.

Timeliness of this article is amazing, so much has happened in the two weeks since this article.

The clinton sherif accord is there, indian army is continueing with its campaign. It appears that pak will have to organise the withdrawal of intruders quickly. India has already captured the strategic heights overlooking the highway.

I dia can very well leave the rest of the peaks for better times.

Any pak organised withdrawal should include talks of safe passage, which india will disagree.

It all leads to only one conclusion, the clinton-sheriff accord has faileed to deliver and as such there is no `internationalisation` of kashmir.

The intruders have been driven out by the indian troops, the declaration is redundant. The mujahideen comments of not agreeing is god sent for the indians. Sherif has failed again by not acting and agreeing to withdraw promptly. A categorical statement that mujahideen will not get military support from the pak army would have been a concrete step and such would havebeen in line with the clinton sherif accord.

Dear Feroz,

``On the other side of the coin, its proxy war against the Indians, waged through militant guerrilla movements, seemed to be dying out ...``

Bless you ! Having admitted the truth, I hope now that Pakistanis at Chowk will not ask questions like ``What are 400,000 Indian troops doing in Kashmir`` and will stop using phrases like ``Indian Oppression``.

``The Ukrainian build T-80UD main battle tank, which forms the iron fist of Pakistan Army’s strike corps and is the most technologically advanced and potent tank in the sub-continent ...``

I remember similar words being said about the Patton tank, many years back. The battle of Longewala should remind us not to get carried away. 80 pakistani Patton tanks were stopped in their tracks and decimated by a combination of Indian Centurions (WWII vintage) and Hunter jets. Longewala is still referred to as ``Patton`s graveyard``.

Do you have any proof for these or are you just pandering to the fantasies of your Pakistani readers:

(1) ``The Indian Army was so desperate for financial assistance that it could not even pay its officer corps ...``

(2) ``The Indian middle class, who had traditionally staffed the officer corps of the Indian Army, was leaving it in droves and the army was becoming a hollow shell without any officers to lead it``.

(3) ``The Indian Air Force is so short of spare parts that it had limited its training flights, with the result that its pilots were spending less time in the air.``

Are you aware that Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is producing all the MIGs by a Licensed agreement with Russia.

(4) ``.. the Indian Air Force attained the highest accident rates in the entire world.``



``Furthermore, this was the only road that connected Siachen with the rest of India’s network of military bases in Kashmir. By cutting Indian access to it, it was hoped to isolate Indian troops on Siachen...``

According the Gen. Malik (Indian), this was no longer a threat after the first few days of the Kargil war. Maybe they had worked out something.

This will keep me amused for some time:

``The Pakistani intentions, as explained above, are quite clear, but they seem to get lost, because this military operation, in Kargil, is absolutely brilliant in its simplicity, which makes it impossible to rationalize Pakistani motives.``

Refer Ferozk #20

Yeah. The Paki spin has begun. Pakistanis, both in government and out of it, have started explaining away their defeat in Kargil (this defeat is the latest in the series of humiliating defeats Pakistan has suffered). Indeed, now that the Indians have begun capturing point after point (Tiger Hills, Batalik, ...), the Pakis are now trying to tell us how all this was planned. But the way Pak reinforcements are still trying to get into the Indian side and launch new offensives, this certainly was NOT an attempt to `hold and drop`. But then, how can you tell the world that you had your butts kicked! So, tell them that all this was `pre-planned`. Interesting. The spin is on.

Re: Zeemax # 19

I am in agreement with what you have said. I think that the real intention of Kargil was to internationalize the issue. Kargil was a cold calculated move by Pakistan to force India`s hand in the matter and contary to what the Indians might claim, this military operation had all the earmarks of a ``hold and drop`` operation. That is to say, it was not designed to wrest the heights from the Indians, but to force them into a situation, which would cause the world to take notice of the crisis.

Your other comment seems to be a distinct possibility. Remember, Indian ingresses on the LoC have effectivily created salients, which are like peninsulas inside Pakistani side of the LoC. In these cases, Indians are surrounded on three sides by Pakistan and these salients can easily be pinched off; hence, this issue will likely flare up again in the future.

On the topic of LoC itself, there seems to be two differing opinions. One is that LoC will revert to as delineated in the Simla agreement and second is that it will only apply to the Kargil situation. The Indians naturally would oft for the second option, because for them it is a losing situation, because of their ingresses in Qumar, Chorbalat and Neelum and Siachen. They would have to vacate all these under the Simla terms and the hawks in India would balk at such a prospect.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, its gambit worked, because the Indians, despite their military gains, are now being presented by a fait accompli: accept Simla or outside mediation. This is the critical ingredient in the whole thing. If the Indians accept Simla, and work though its auxillary the Lahore treaty, the west will not intervene, but if it does not, it will intervene to settle the issue as means to prevent another war.

The other interesting feature of this whole episode is that Pakistan also succeded in keeping this issue localized in the Kargil and managed to prevent a war. Pakistan never wanted a war with India for obvivious reasons, because it would have lost what it had gained in two months fighting in Kargil. Nawaz Sharif`s trip to Washington, and its real intentions, was to freeze the ground realities as they existed in Kargil and set the framework for a discussion on Kashmir and was not intended with the aim to withdraw the forces.

This explains the hue and cry raised by retired Pakistani generals a la Hamid Gul and Mirza Aslam Beg. The initial Pakistani ingress into Kargil was thought to be around 1-5 kms, but it ended up being in the neighborhood of 20-25 kms. Gul and Beg et al wanted a military victory in Kashmir by choking the Indian held Drass-Leh-Siachen road, and do not seem to understand that the real aim of Pakistani intentions was a political end and not a military one. Consequently, it is in Pakistani interests to freeze the situation before it turns against it; Sharif`s trip to Washington is good indicator of this.

All in all, this was a very carefully thought out operation and in review, it seems to have been planned to the last detail. Whatever the final outcome, the sheer audacity of Pakistani military planners is simply mind boggling in this matter.


Re: Najib # 16

A couple of quick points. First of all, thanks for making my point for me and secondly, it seems that we are reading from the same page after all, but with different interpretations.

Before I attempt to answer your points, please be advised that my aricle was not meant as a comparative analysis of Indian and Pakistani war strenghts and I was mildly suprised to find you acrediting it as such. This article was intended to review the military mind of Pakistan and how it came to the conclusion, which in turn intiated the crisis in Kargil.

You mentioned LCA. For the sake of argument, I will add India`s programe to build its own main battle tank, the Arjun. In both cases, even if India begins serial production of these two weapons system today, it will take, in an optimistic sense, up to 5 years before they can inducted into the Indian inventory, because they still would have to undergo field trials and final field evulations.

My question to you is this, how long have the Indians been trying yo build Arjun and LCAs ?

These programs started in early 1980s and nearly twenty years later, these systems are still not deployed with the Indian forces. The point I was trying to make in my article was that Pakistan was watching all of this and it realized that there was a ``window of vunerablity`` and the Indians were in a relative parity with Pakistan vis a vis their force structures. The Pakistanis understood that this would not last for long and they simply exploited the situation for their own ends, while the sun shone so to speak.

The article was intended to describe the Pakistani military`s situational perceptions of what was happening in India and what lessons, rightly or wrongly, it drew from it.

On the naval issues, I agree with you: no plan ever survives the first contact with the enemy and I am sure that the Indians will have counter-vailing strategies in a sea battle with Pakistan. Do you really think that the Indians want to fight Pakistani Navy under the protection PAF`s air cover and away from its own air cover. Also, please remember, Karachi is no longer the principal port of Pakistani naval operations as it was in 1971; it is Gwader.

Hence, Indians can not effectivily bottle up Pakistani navy as they once did. Let me ask you this, are the Indians really willing to come close to the Pakistani shores and risk their surface assets and if prudence suggests they might be cautious, then Pakistani navy has succeded, because it has forced the Indians think twice before they do anything.

On the issue of valor and training, I have never denied the valor of the Indian troops in Kargil and on the same token, you can not deny the amount of planning and training of Pakistani troops prior to this operation.

Pakistan has learned from its mistakes, on Siachen in 1984, well. Prior to Siachen, it had no mountain warfare school and now it does and its Special Services Groups regularly train at the German Army`s Bergjader (Mountain War School) out side of Munich in the Baravain Alps, with the British SAS on the Scottish highlands and with the Americans in the Rockies. Its forces on the Siachen are using plexi-glass igloos and thermal tents and thermal uniforms and for food, its troops are being supplied by high enegry protein bars rich in calories. Pakistani Army has been quite busy since 1984 and it is not the same army, which fought the Indians on Siachen in 1984. Where do think all that money has gone?

On matters of training, I would say that in the present situation the Indians are in a similar position as the Pakistanis were in 1984 and yes, the learning curve is going be high, but the Indians will get those heights back soon or later.

The IAF had no more losses, because it never ingressed Pakistani side of the LoC and secondly, PAF has a rigid set of RoE (rules of engagement) dealing with LoC violations. Three conditions have to be meet before PAF or Army SAMs will engage the Indians. One; the violation of LoC has to be more than 15 kms; it has to be a combat aircraft and lastly, if engaged the aircraft has to fall within Pakistani side of LoC to confirm Indian violations. All of these conditions have to be meet, before Indian planes can be engaged and destroyed.

My friend this way, you can not deny your ingressions into the Pakistani side of the LoC as you did after your MiGs were downed and then you back tracked once the evidence was shown. There is a reason and rhyme to everything, the Pakistani armed forces does! :)

The rest of your points will addressed in another article, and there is no need to get into the details here.

Hope this explantion suffices!

Absolutely Brilliant Analysis Feroz! Masterful. The only thing i don`t agree with is that this was done to forestall a military collapse at Siachin. If you mean financially, perhaps yes I agree with your reasoning, but not military. Pakistan has repeatedly allowed International media access to its side of the LOC, India has rarely done the same. I suspect because Indian troops are faring much worse than Pakistani troops at Siachin. I commend you on writing an absolute gem of an article. Nice to read your work after such a long time old buddy.

OMAR