A Road To Siachen

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Excellent analysis.

One thing I would like to ask. Does your information come from specific sources, or have you based this on common sense?

Also, do you think India will be vulnerable to repeated incidences like Kargil?

Finally, how much of the Kashmiri civilian population (apart from the freedom fighters) do you think actually opposes India, and supports independence? I think this will be the deciding factor, in any battle involving Kashmir.

I find your analysis very plausible, to some extend it puts in context various statements by the pak politicians.

One thing i cannot understand is what is the importance of siachen glacier, is it of strategic importance, why cant the paks walk away, now that indians are there.

Some comments indicated that pak wants a time frame for the kashmir `issue`, and kargill was supposed to deliver it.

As it turned out, by india refusing to cross the LOC, the paks find themselves totally isolated. The PM of a country at war running around the world for peace creates a comic situation, where the public opinion at large seem to tell the PM that the tensions will be over when the pak support for the infiltrators are withdrawn.

I enjoy your perceptive analysis and look forward to the post kargil analysis hopefully in a months time.

events have moved so fast and have overtaken the chowk. Kargil is over and i look forward to your rejoinder, may be explaining the following report from Dawn

PM`s dash to Washington surprises envoy

By Masood Haider

NEW YORK, July 4: Pakistan embassy officials in Washington and New York were taken aback on Saturday afternoon over the announcement of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif`s unscheduled meeting with President Clinton on Sunday at Blair House over the deteriorating situation in Kashmir.

Ambassador Riaz Khokhar was not aware of the secretive developments resulting in Mr Sharif`s visit as he was in New Orleans, attending the meeting of the Association of Pakistani Physicians.

Officials at Pakistan Mission to the United Nations and the Consulate General in New York had also no knowledge of it.

Compounding the confusion was the fact that the prime minister took a normal New York-bound PIA flight from Islamabad and was supposed to take a connecting flight to Washington from New York with his entourage of 20 or more officials.

The PIA officials in New York working in conjunction with the Pakistan Mission officials, however, convinced the Federal Aviation Authority to allow the plane to divert to Washington to enable the prime minister`s party to disembark and then fly back to New York with its normal load of passengers.

But, there was confusion as to which one of the two Washington`s airports would be used for landing until the last minute.

The Pakistani press party was first told by the Pakistan International Airlines that the plane would land at National airport while the officials at the embassy kept guessing that it would be Dulles international airport, which is far from the city.

At the last minute, the embassy officials told Dawn that the Prime Minister`s plane would be landing at Dulles airport. The journalists who were shuttling between the two airports managed to get there in the nick of time as the plane landed before noon.

But Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his party were whisked away by the US secret service officials to Blair House without meeting the press.

Feroz:

Congradulations. You have finally made it to the ECL!

For the un-initiated, ECL stands for 1: Exit Control List (Sort of Who`s Who of Amir ul Momaneen`s real or perceived detractors) and
Entry Control List (which is self explanatory).

You are on the Entry Control List. Please inform the US Postal Services to forward your mail care of ISI anytime you chose to visit Pakistan. Do not forget to pack some extra toilet rolls, you do not appear to be the lota kind. Also inform Amnesty Int`l of your intentions. We will try and get you released unharmed. (Sorry, no 30 days warrantee with this advice).

regards

Why is India seeking so much help from America to solve this problem, when India completely denounced the USA for opposing its nuclear tests?

These 600 freedom fighters have really proven too much for the whole Indian army and air force. How have they been so successful?

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A very good analysis of the current situation. Keep it up Feroz.

Asfand Yar Siddiqui

Sacramento CA

This is one of the most ridiculous analyses I have ever come across! Mr Khan is merely trying to piece together an essay aimed at misinforming and ill-informing the readers. Many of the ``facts`` mentioned by him are nonsensical gibberish of drunk Pak generals at hush-hush cocktail parties.

For example, he says that at one time the Indian Army could not pay its officers! From where did he get this crap? What do you think our Army is? The Pak federal government? For the record, yes, it is true that India (unlike rogue states like China or Pakistan) has been continuously cutting down defence spending and allocating those resources to more productive purposes. This is in keeping with our peaceful motives and intent. But our soldiers are well taken care of. The defence budget cuts certainly have made things harder, but on a relative basis, we can still kick China`s pants off! Pakistan is not even a concern. It is just a nuisance, promoting terrorism.

In one breath, he says India overwhelmingly out-matches the Pak Navy just in numbers and ships etc. Yet, he also says that the Pakis have `parity` with Indian Navy, just beacuse some Pak admirals have cooked up an `apparently` infallible `strategy`! Come on, has he completely forgotten the immense damage that our aircraft carrier INS Vikrant inflicted on Pak?

Amazingly, Mr Khan contends that the Pakis have military parity (even superiority) with India. FALSE! The Pak army decided not to intervene directly and fight a proxy war instead (by using terrorists who shamelessly use Islam to justify their misdeeds). This was based on just one conclusion: Fghting a war against India would lead to yet another humiliation for the Pak army.

India has a superiority over the Pakis in ALL fields. This should not be seen by Pakistanis as a discomforting fact. The basic problem with Pakistanis is that they are keen on `competing` with a country 10 times bigger. Something like Nepal trying to compete with China! The result? Pakistan spends 85% of its resources on just two things: servicing foreign loans and spending on its military (the corrupt generals like that!).

When will Pakistan learn? It is now only HALF its original size and has lost three wars since its inception. It should pay more attention to the mis-treatment of Mohajirs and Ahmadiyas, and the possible creation of Sindhudesh.

Najib:

F.R. Khan`s article (assuming his sources of information are genuine) makes a lot more sense than your comments.

I was a member of the Pakistan military for 13 years, and have a pretty good understanding of the military strengths of both India and Pakistan. In my current profession, most the people I work with are Indian expats, so I have developed a some understanding of the Indian civilian infrastructure, as well.

India has a gigantic army, a huge air force, and a big navy. The Indian army is nearly three times the size of the US army. Paksitan has a very big army, a medium sized air force, and a small navy. Assuming the capabilities of the soldiers on both sides to be equal, one could naively deduce that India should be able to run all over Pakistan. However, that has not happened. The only major success India has achieved is the independence of Bangladesh. However that was mainly due to the civilian uprisings in East Pakistan, against West Pakistan.

It is much more difficult in war to attack than it is to defend. You need at the very least, a 3 to 1 superiority in numbers, and equipment. India has never had that kind of a superiority against Pakistan. In fact the numbers game seems to be favoring Pakistan more and more. Currently, nearly half of the Indian army is occupied in Kashmir. Another portion of the Indian army has traditionally been utilized as a defence against China. This means that the actual size of the Indian army facing Pakistan (outside Kashmir) is relatively close to the size of the Pakistan army. The Indian army has to defend a much larger border than does the Pakistan Army. This makes it impossible for India to score any major gains against Pakistan.

It is of course a given, that Pakistan cannot score any major gains against India, because the Pakistani military is just not big enough. That is why the Pakistani military has always been designed for a defensive role. However, India is vulnerable to internal strife. Currently, there are over ten freedom movements going on in India. A few of these like the Kashmiris and the Sikhs have gained a lot of momentum. In an all out war, the movements could really get out of control, and occupy a major poriton of the Indian military resources.

The other aspects are too detailed to get into here. With the advent of nuclear weapons, and the reasons I mentioned above, India and Pakistan are in a virtual stalemate. This the strongest position Pakistan has had against India, since indpendence. Any country that now initiates a full-fledged war will end up destroying both India and Pakistan.

It has been India`s good luck, that Pakistan has been ruled by corrupt and incompotent politicians. That is the main reason that Pakistan has not been able to act as an able spokesperson for the Kashmir cause. That is why I say, the Kashmiris will eventually have to win their independence on their own. Even though the common man in Pakistan is genuinely dedicated to the Kashmiri cause, the politicians will continue to make a mess of it.

Re: Najib # 9

It is always wrong and a mistake to review military matters through a Freudian prism. Like everything else in life, it is not the size of the military that matters, but how it is used!

My information about the inability of the Indian Army to pay its officer corps came from a varity of Indian newspaper accounts and from e-mails with a host of Indian friends, who confirmed those reports by their own observations. This fact was widely reported in the Indian media, which unlike its Pakistani counter-part is not shy about about demanding answers from its officals.

Whether the Indians are curtailing their defensive costs for more productive uses maybe true, but it does not distract from the truth that the Indian military has severed a serious degradation in terms of weapons procurement, deployment and in its ability to maintain an operational posture. In real terms, Indian armed forces` advantage over Pakistan is only in numbers and Pakistanis know that there is a `` window of opportunity`` to re-equate the balance of forces in the next few years.

It is true that India is buying advanced weapons platforms, but it takes, on an average five-seven years for those weapons to be fully intergrated and deployed. Lets take the example of Pakistan`s Agosta 90B submarines. From the moment Pakistan placed its order, in the early 1990s, to the time they will be fully operational with the Pakistani Navy, in 2003 hopefully, a decade would have passed. Pakistan just signed with China to co-produce FC-1 aircraft(Fighter China)and seeks to begin its serial production and its induction into Pakistan Air Force squandrons some time in 2005.

When was the last time Indian Air Force`s fighters were fitted with MLUs?

My friend, Indians are, as UR suggested, in a parity with Pakistan`s armed forces in actual combat ratios and given the lack of their force modernizations, they are having serious problems in maintaining their operational ``organizational order of battle``. Indian Air Force currently has nerarly 900 aircraft, most of them old Soviet MiG 21s, 25s, 27s, and 29s. Aside from the MiG 29, and some of its MiG 27s, its fleet of MiG 21s and 25s are nearly thirity years old and are based on designs, which are nearly forty and fifty years old. It is collection of British Sea Harriers and Speecat Jaguars are twenty plus years old.

The IAFs most modern and able weapons systems are its Mirage 2000s, and Sukhoi 30s fighter aircrafts. These aircraft, with the MiG 27s and 29s, consitute only about 250-300 of the IAFs total frontline aircrafts. Coupled with the Jaguars and some MiG 25s with MLUs, that total comes to nearly 400 aircrafts. In contrast Pakistan has 38 F-16s and nearly 200 Mirage aircraft. Even when the Chinese made fighters of PAF are discounted, that still gives the Indians a three to one parity over Pakistan and the PAF has traditionally trained with those odds in mind.

If you still think that IAF is so superior to Pakistan, then why are the Indians thinking of cutting their aircraft strenght from 900 to nearly 450 planes? The answer is that with the collapse of the Soviet Union, India does not have a cheap and easy access to Soviet spare parts to keep its planes flying and the Russians are no longer interested in being paid in ``soft money``, that is Indian rupees, for their weapons. Also, the lack of financial support has made it impossible for the Indians to maintain a 900 plane airforce.

Lets turn our attentions to the naval parity. Again, the size of the force does not matter, but the war doctrines the two forces does. Your statement, about size of the Indian Navy superiority, was flawed, because it was like comparing two software programs without understanding their applications!

Pakistan Navy does not intend to engage the Indians on open seas, but interdict their vital sea lanes and supply lines. Your carrier forces will have to come closer to Pakistan`s coastline to fight the Pakistan Navy and that will put them under our ``missile belt`` and within the range of our anti-shipping aircrafts. All of this is designed to force the Indians to adopt a defensive posture and more importantly, take away the advantage from them and make them operate their forces to the tempo of Pakistani Navy`s war aims.

Before you re-state your original cliams, I would suggest that you do a little reading and find out what is the difference between the Indians` ``carrier bubble`` and Pakistan Navy`s forward defensive tactics.

Why do you think your admirals were so concerned about the deployment of Pakistan`s Navy to their war patrols that they alreted the entire Indian western fleet? If the Indians are so powerful on the seas as you claim, then what are they afraid of vis a vis Pakistan?

My friend, military strategy depends more on intentions, force multipliers, and capabilities than it depends on a numbers game!

Re: UR

My information came from browsing through newspapers, both Indian and Pakistani, and through reading specialized defense journals like Jane`s. Also, most of the analysis came from talks, and e-mails with friends who are in the Pakistani military; in junior to middle level rannks (majors to colonels).

Some of the information/ situational analysis came from friends who are in the American militry; a few had rotated out of Pakistan on special training assignments with Special Services Group and had served with Pakistani military advisors in Saudi Arabia in the pre-Gulf War period.

The naval parity analysis was done over a weekend playing a simulated war game pitting the Indian and Pakistani navies in a war situation and finding out what the optimal performance, the battle utility and combat risk minimization would be for both navies.

Hope this helps!

Nobody can deny that in sum Kargil has been a major setback of disastrous proportions. The tragedy is that not only we were in the right but what was won on the snowy

heights with the blood of our youth has again been lost on

the slippery slopes of the negotiating table. For the sake of

national unity and the morale of the Armed Forces this is no

time to indulge in finger-pointing and recriminations but to

close ranks lest divided we fall.

Let us first count the losses viz (1) we have never been so

politically and diplomatically isolated in the full 52 years of

our existence, even when counting 1971 (2) in accepting

the ``Mujahideen were across the Line of Control (LOC)``

when in fact they were in no-man`s land, we were stupid

enough to tacitly accept ``intrusion`` (3) by insisting that we

were not aiding the Mujahideen when every child knows

that we do (as we must) we shot our credibility into oblivion

(4) we exposed our ``China Card`` needlessly and lost

psychologically on that count when they remained mostly

neutral (5) militarily we have unnecessarily jeopardized the

morale of the Armed Forces when in fact they performed

``above and beyond the call of duty`` and (6) we have lost

the media battle across the globe in a manner that could be

devastating in the future.

Ikram Sehgal

Feroz,

I must admit that my knowledge about the military hardware and srtategies is rather limited, and, hence, I will not touch them with a ten foot gun, I mean, pole. As such, I will, for the sake of argument, accept your premise as it is.

A major flaw in your anlysis, however, is the sole emphasis that if you have the most modern weapons and fire-power, bingo! IMO, three things are crucial and very critical in attaining either a military victory or superiority. You have, for obvious reasons, completely ignored them. Let`s talk about them.

1. INFRASTRUCTURE: For a country to mount an effective attack, or defense against an attack, you need to have the infrastructure, logistic, industrial, manufacturing base, technical & technological, etc. You can mount skirmishes here and there in its absence, but cannot sustain your efforts, attack or defense, with a weak infrastructure. Pakistan, I am afraid, is woefully lacking in this respect, and, most certainly compares unfavorably with its neighbor India.

2. PERSONNEL, the HUMAN factor: The Friday Times reports that ex-chief of ISI, Gen, Gul said that India is trapped in Kashmir, that its forces will die of hunger, that in six weeks India will climb down and leave Siachin. The calibre you stupid! This person once headed a very important military arm of the country. Gen. Beg said the other day that Indian Army is frustrated and demoralized, and, hence, US and the West has hatched a conspracy to bail India out. This person was once the highest military brain. Add to this the odd collection from a short history of the nation, such military geniuses as, Yahayya Khan, Tikka Khan, Niazi, one R. Khan,etc. These were not just ordinary soldiers, they controlled the destiny, at least militarily, of the nation. We know their competency through their actions and the results generated by their commands. So, the question raised is how an army comandeered by such a motely crew bordering on a lunatic fringe will be able to utilize all that highly technologically superior hardware effectively. You may think the new generation personnel are better, but then who were their mentors and teachers? The same fringe, nay?

Another problem with the Pakistani rank and file is the religion and bigotry as the driving force, negates professionalism.

3. RESOURCES: The most important aspect of a nation`s military might is obviously resources. By resources I mean hard cash, foreign reserves, self sufficiency and continuous and consistent earning power. Pakistan in comparison to its arch rival fares extremely bad in this respect. With all that expensive and modern hardware, Pakistan cannot sustain a full-fledged military operation for more than, IMO, four months. This I believe is a very optimistic estimate. When you are at war you cannot rely on the Arabs nor on the Western agencies to bail you out financially. On the other hand, you have to replenish continuously the military supplies. Pakistan does not have a defense industry to fall back on.( This was a rush job, please excuse me for the typos.)

Re: Kant Patel # 14

You are two steps ahead of me, as usual!

The issues you have astutely refered to were to be a subject of another article, presently under work, that would have dealt with the political-strategic imperatives of the Pakistani actions. This article was the second installment in a series, which would seek to analyze the Pakistan`s motives in the present crisis. The nature of this article was to highlight the thought process of the Pakistani military leading up to the present crisis.

The next article would have addressed the issues you have raised. The intent of this article was to suggest that this operation was carefully thought out and it was not staged ad hoc, in the aftermath of Lahore, as the prima facie evidence seems to suggest.

To directly answer your points, I am in agreement with what you seem to suggest. The critical unknown in this equation is the calibre of Pak army`s leadership. Yes, the higher elechon`s leadership seems to be a matter of concern, but please try to remember this point; they planned the operation and they are not fighting it. The fighting is being mostly done by lieutants, captains, majors, colonels and NCOs, who are responsible for the tactical decisions.

Contary to what the Indian media might claim, the real Pakistani intention seems to be to internationalize the issue rather than seek to militarily deny the Indians the heights around Kargil. In this respect, the plan worked given the Clinton-Sharif joint statement on the issue.

As to the resources-infrastructure aspect, Pakistani defense industry, which is primarily a small arms industry is well suited for such a low intensity warfare. Concerning the duration of the conflict, I agree four months is too optimistic. In real terms, like I said before, the intention was not to fight the Indians, but to use the crisis as an excuse to bring it into the world`s forums and force the Indians to deal with it against their historic wishes; no third party mediations.

Once my article is posted, hopefully, you will see all your comments addressed in some detail, but the questions you have raised are very apt and important ones.

All I ask from you is for a little patience in this matter.

Ha! That was an amusing article. Thank you!

I also read some of the responses. And noticed that the author (of the article) mentions ``a variety of Indian newspapers`` and ``email from Indian friends`` as his sources on the ineptitude of the Indian military.

If his sources are genuine, why doesn`t the author post, say, 5 of those articles/email messages? Come to think of it, it always bothers me when I read in newspapers about ``reliable sources`` or ``credible sources.`` I wonder about such sources.

Let the authors set a trend, here on chowk.com, of showing reasonable evidence of veracity when they claim that they are expressing facts. Let all else remain opinions.

Re: jrspringer

I can post the e-mails as you claim and list the name of my sources to verify the information in my article. On the other hand, you are absolutely entitled to discount all of the article`s analysis for a lack of verification. If I had a choice in the matter, I would rather wish you discount this article than compromise my sources just to satisfy your incredulity.

The reason that these people offer me such information is, because I have promised not reveal their true identities. The nature of this communication is a ``back channel`` oriented one and such can not be disclosed. You are correct to imply that background sources can be dubious and open to question.

However, I can tell you, being involved in politics myself, that most newspapers who want access to key information agree to use such classifications to maintain their access to the infomation and the people who give them such information do so only under cases of ``deep background``.

Like the newspapers, if I opted to disclose their names and this precedent becomes known, I will be effectivily out of the information loop. Furthermore, I need these sources for the future intentions and I can not justify buring them for any reasons, even if that means to protect myself from my distractors.

Consequently, I can not disclose them and if this chargrins you, I am trully sorry, but access to information is not free; it has certain limitations, which have to be rigidily observed. There is a gentlemen`s agreement on this issue that I will be given certain information and in return, I have to guard the identity of my sources at all costs.

My friend, I would dearly love to oblige you in this matter, but the practical considerations do not allow me that luxury.

Re: Najib

I will post a reply to you soon.

For your info, the inability of the Indian Army to pay its officiers came from an article in India Today a few months ago.

A detailed reply will soon be posted, which should hopefully answer your post.

FerozK :

I have two points to make.

First, that you should not waste your energy arguing with people regarding facts. Facts cannot be disputed while conjectures can. So pls use your energy to write more intelligent analyses.

Second, the Kashmir dispute is an extremely delicate chess game. It can neither be won by brute force nor by negotiation. It`s a matter of brinkwalking at times and queen`s gambits at others. This is what Pakistan`s strategy was in Kargill and my opinion is that it has been achieved.

Though the exact nature of the agreement reached with Clinton will emerge on Monday during PM`s address to the nation, what`s clear in the meantime in the terminology of the joint communique` is that ``Line of Control will be restored`` in it`s original form. What that means is that India will have to withdraw from Siachin and Pakistan will have to climb down from Kargill. That was the original intended trade-off in which Pakistan appears to have succeeded. Kargill was a pawn threateng the whole queen`s column in the chessboard of Kashmir.

If India does not abide by the agreement and does not vacate Siachin, mind you there are many more cliffs like Kargill to be climbed along the LOC.

FerozK your comments pls. ?

Zeemax

Absolutely Brilliant Analysis Feroz! Masterful. The only thing i don`t agree with is that this was done to forestall a military collapse at Siachin. If you mean financially, perhaps yes I agree with your reasoning, but not military. Pakistan has repeatedly allowed International media access to its side of the LOC, India has rarely done the same. I suspect because Indian troops are faring much worse than Pakistani troops at Siachin. I commend you on writing an absolute gem of an article. Nice to read your work after such a long time old buddy.

OMAR

Re: Zeemax # 19

I am in agreement with what you have said. I think that the real intention of Kargil was to internationalize the issue. Kargil was a cold calculated move by Pakistan to force India`s hand in the matter and contary to what the Indians might claim, this military operation had all the earmarks of a ``hold and drop`` operation. That is to say, it was not designed to wrest the heights from the Indians, but to force them into a situation, which would cause the world to take notice of the crisis.

Your other comment seems to be a distinct possibility. Remember, Indian ingresses on the LoC have effectivily created salients, which are like peninsulas inside Pakistani side of the LoC. In these cases, Indians are surrounded on three sides by Pakistan and these salients can easily be pinched off; hence, this issue will likely flare up again in the future.

On the topic of LoC itself, there seems to be two differing opinions. One is that LoC will revert to as delineated in the Simla agreement and second is that it will only apply to the Kargil situation. The Indians naturally would oft for the second option, because for them it is a losing situation, because of their ingresses in Qumar, Chorbalat and Neelum and Siachen. They would have to vacate all these under the Simla terms and the hawks in India would balk at such a prospect.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, its gambit worked, because the Indians, despite their military gains, are now being presented by a fait accompli: accept Simla or outside mediation. This is the critical ingredient in the whole thing. If the Indians accept Simla, and work though its auxillary the Lahore treaty, the west will not intervene, but if it does not, it will intervene to settle the issue as means to prevent another war.

The other interesting feature of this whole episode is that Pakistan also succeded in keeping this issue localized in the Kargil and managed to prevent a war. Pakistan never wanted a war with India for obvivious reasons, because it would have lost what it had gained in two months fighting in Kargil. Nawaz Sharif`s trip to Washington, and its real intentions, was to freeze the ground realities as they existed in Kargil and set the framework for a discussion on Kashmir and was not intended with the aim to withdraw the forces.

This explains the hue and cry raised by retired Pakistani generals a la Hamid Gul and Mirza Aslam Beg. The initial Pakistani ingress into Kargil was thought to be around 1-5 kms, but it ended up being in the neighborhood of 20-25 kms. Gul and Beg et al wanted a military victory in Kashmir by choking the Indian held Drass-Leh-Siachen road, and do not seem to understand that the real aim of Pakistani intentions was a political end and not a military one. Consequently, it is in Pakistani interests to freeze the situation before it turns against it; Sharif`s trip to Washington is good indicator of this.

All in all, this was a very carefully thought out operation and in review, it seems to have been planned to the last detail. Whatever the final outcome, the sheer audacity of Pakistani military planners is simply mind boggling in this matter.


Re: Najib # 16

A couple of quick points. First of all, thanks for making my point for me and secondly, it seems that we are reading from the same page after all, but with different interpretations.

Before I attempt to answer your points, please be advised that my aricle was not meant as a comparative analysis of Indian and Pakistani war strenghts and I was mildly suprised to find you acrediting it as such. This article was intended to review the military mind of Pakistan and how it came to the conclusion, which in turn intiated the crisis in Kargil.

You mentioned LCA. For the sake of argument, I will add India`s programe to build its own main battle tank, the Arjun. In both cases, even if India begins serial production of these two weapons system today, it will take, in an optimistic sense, up to 5 years before they can inducted into the Indian inventory, because they still would have to undergo field trials and final field evulations.

My question to you is this, how long have the Indians been trying yo build Arjun and LCAs ?

These programs started in early 1980s and nearly twenty years later, these systems are still not deployed with the Indian forces. The point I was trying to make in my article was that Pakistan was watching all of this and it realized that there was a ``window of vunerablity`` and the Indians were in a relative parity with Pakistan vis a vis their force structures. The Pakistanis understood that this would not last for long and they simply exploited the situation for their own ends, while the sun shone so to speak.

The article was intended to describe the Pakistani military`s situational perceptions of what was happening in India and what lessons, rightly or wrongly, it drew from it.

On the naval issues, I agree with you: no plan ever survives the first contact with the enemy and I am sure that the Indians will have counter-vailing strategies in a sea battle with Pakistan. Do you really think that the Indians want to fight Pakistani Navy under the protection PAF`s air cover and away from its own air cover. Also, please remember, Karachi is no longer the principal port of Pakistani naval operations as it was in 1971; it is Gwader.

Hence, Indians can not effectivily bottle up Pakistani navy as they once did. Let me ask you this, are the Indians really willing to come close to the Pakistani shores and risk their surface assets and if prudence suggests they might be cautious, then Pakistani navy has succeded, because it has forced the Indians think twice before they do anything.

On the issue of valor and training, I have never denied the valor of the Indian troops in Kargil and on the same token, you can not deny the amount of planning and training of Pakistani troops prior to this operation.

Pakistan has learned from its mistakes, on Siachen in 1984, well. Prior to Siachen, it had no mountain warfare school and now it does and its Special Services Groups regularly train at the German Army`s Bergjader (Mountain War School) out side of Munich in the Baravain Alps, with the British SAS on the Scottish highlands and with the Americans in the Rockies. Its forces on the Siachen are using plexi-glass igloos and thermal tents and thermal uniforms and for food, its troops are being supplied by high enegry protein bars rich in calories. Pakistani Army has been quite busy since 1984 and it is not the same army, which fought the Indians on Siachen in 1984. Where do think all that money has gone?

On matters of training, I would say that in the present situation the Indians are in a similar position as the Pakistanis were in 1984 and yes, the learning curve is going be high, but the Indians will get those heights back soon or later.

The IAF had no more losses, because it never ingressed Pakistani side of the LoC and secondly, PAF has a rigid set of RoE (rules of engagement) dealing with LoC violations. Three conditions have to be meet before PAF or Army SAMs will engage the Indians. One; the violation of LoC has to be more than 15 kms; it has to be a combat aircraft and lastly, if engaged the aircraft has to fall within Pakistani side of LoC to confirm Indian violations. All of these conditions have to be meet, before Indian planes can be engaged and destroyed.

My friend this way, you can not deny your ingressions into the Pakistani side of the LoC as you did after your MiGs were downed and then you back tracked once the evidence was shown. There is a reason and rhyme to everything, the Pakistani armed forces does! :)

The rest of your points will addressed in another article, and there is no need to get into the details here.

Hope this explantion suffices!

Refer Ferozk #20

Yeah. The Paki spin has begun. Pakistanis, both in government and out of it, have started explaining away their defeat in Kargil (this defeat is the latest in the series of humiliating defeats Pakistan has suffered). Indeed, now that the Indians have begun capturing point after point (Tiger Hills, Batalik, ...), the Pakis are now trying to tell us how all this was planned. But the way Pak reinforcements are still trying to get into the Indian side and launch new offensives, this certainly was NOT an attempt to `hold and drop`. But then, how can you tell the world that you had your butts kicked! So, tell them that all this was `pre-planned`. Interesting. The spin is on.

Dear Feroz,

``On the other side of the coin, its proxy war against the Indians, waged through militant guerrilla movements, seemed to be dying out ...``

Bless you ! Having admitted the truth, I hope now that Pakistanis at Chowk will not ask questions like ``What are 400,000 Indian troops doing in Kashmir`` and will stop using phrases like ``Indian Oppression``.

``The Ukrainian build T-80UD main battle tank, which forms the iron fist of Pakistan Army’s strike corps and is the most technologically advanced and potent tank in the sub-continent ...``

I remember similar words being said about the Patton tank, many years back. The battle of Longewala should remind us not to get carried away. 80 pakistani Patton tanks were stopped in their tracks and decimated by a combination of Indian Centurions (WWII vintage) and Hunter jets. Longewala is still referred to as ``Patton`s graveyard``.

Do you have any proof for these or are you just pandering to the fantasies of your Pakistani readers:

(1) ``The Indian Army was so desperate for financial assistance that it could not even pay its officer corps ...``

(2) ``The Indian middle class, who had traditionally staffed the officer corps of the Indian Army, was leaving it in droves and the army was becoming a hollow shell without any officers to lead it``.

(3) ``The Indian Air Force is so short of spare parts that it had limited its training flights, with the result that its pilots were spending less time in the air.``

Are you aware that Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is producing all the MIGs by a Licensed agreement with Russia.

(4) ``.. the Indian Air Force attained the highest accident rates in the entire world.``



``Furthermore, this was the only road that connected Siachen with the rest of India’s network of military bases in Kashmir. By cutting Indian access to it, it was hoped to isolate Indian troops on Siachen...``

According the Gen. Malik (Indian), this was no longer a threat after the first few days of the Kargil war. Maybe they had worked out something.

This will keep me amused for some time:

``The Pakistani intentions, as explained above, are quite clear, but they seem to get lost, because this military operation, in Kargil, is absolutely brilliant in its simplicity, which makes it impossible to rationalize Pakistani motives.``

Timeliness of this article is amazing, so much has happened in the two weeks since this article.

The clinton sherif accord is there, indian army is continueing with its campaign. It appears that pak will have to organise the withdrawal of intruders quickly. India has already captured the strategic heights overlooking the highway.

I dia can very well leave the rest of the peaks for better times.

Any pak organised withdrawal should include talks of safe passage, which india will disagree.

It all leads to only one conclusion, the clinton-sheriff accord has faileed to deliver and as such there is no `internationalisation` of kashmir.

The intruders have been driven out by the indian troops, the declaration is redundant. The mujahideen comments of not agreeing is god sent for the indians. Sherif has failed again by not acting and agreeing to withdraw promptly. A categorical statement that mujahideen will not get military support from the pak army would have been a concrete step and such would havebeen in line with the clinton sherif accord.

FerozK :

The naval doctrines analysed by you make a lot of sense i.e. India geared for open sea warfare (air-craft carrier based strategy) while Pakistan geared for coastal warfare (submarines, gunboats)in a defensive mode.

What would be the scenario in the case of a naval blockade of the merchant shipping lanes leading to Karachi in the open sea ? I understand this option was seriously considered by India of being the ONLY viable one to gain bargaining power over Kargill, given it`s disadvantageous position in land and air.

Re: Anarayan`s comments

Hahaha An! Don`t even mention HAL producing MIGs in front of the poor IAF pilots that have to fly them, you`ll hear an earful that would make a

whore blush. India has lost 12 aircraft plus appx 3 probables in the last 4 months (only 2 admitted combat losses 1 Mig, 1 Mi-17), i.e the rest to maintenace problems; they have crashed and IAF pilots have been killed in the Mig21 `deathbed`, (pun on the `fishbed`:) especially. In the 80s and uptil 1995 the IAF was losing 40 aircraft a year (in peacetime!)to crashes alone. So, this can only be accounted for by a combination of 3 factors 1) Poor pilot flying skills, (and each subsequent crash only lowers morale further, and keeps bright, intelligent Indian Individuals away from the Airforce to say nothing of the pay scale) 2) Poor standards of local manufacture by HAL and quality of production 3) Poor maintenace (here also, pay scales determine the quality of individuals that join to serve and this quality is obviously not at a par with the PAF, as in the case of pilots as well).

How else do you explain the fact away that the IAF has had very high `accident` rates over the past 12-15 years. (There was some improvement from 1995 on after a concerted program, but it all seems to be sliding away now). Every crash, every death during peacetime is a dagger piercing the heart of the IAFs Pilots cadres. Will i be next, will my engine fail today/tommorrow ...? is the unspoken thought on most IAF pilots minds, to say nothing of their wives and family`s worries. There are at any given time over 300 pending letters of resignation at IAF HQ from pilots (Source Bharat-Rakshak site I believe from memory). The best simply want out, whats left is garbage just keeping its fingers crossed until the next engine failure (forget about encounters with the PAF being a likely cause of death for right now, when that happens there are gonna be a lot more ladies in India permenantly wearing white, with the saffron wiped off their heads like we see in dramatic moments in Indian flicks). Oh, the tears of the widows, can all be laid at the doorsteps of the 3 above factors. Its a known fact that nowadays only below average people with few other prospects in life join the Indian armed forces. The smart ones for whom the private sector can pay their real value (like the case of the webmaster of the 1965 site on Bharat-Rakshak) get out pretty fast.

On the other hand its also a well known fact that the PAF selects only 1/100 applicants after screening and maintains high quality. And the PAF is also flying old aircraft, but its Falcons (Cheels/eagles) are not just falling out of the sky at the rate the IAFs pigeons (kabutars) are!:) so, pardon my smug hehehe at your attempt to speak highly of HAL manufacturing Migs (now or in the future). The fact is the Indians are just inferior quality material. And will remain such, until they can pay better and motivate better. The fire in their bellies is missing. The willingness to take risks and to die if necessary is missing in this bunch of jokers-mediocres. Dal-roti and lungi plus chappals are their raison d`etre, not a willingness to embrace martyrdom (for what? Possibility of reincarnation as cats/dogs/Cows/etc?) Gimme a break buddy. Ain`t too likely. They have NOTHING worth dying for at stake. Thats India`s problem and that is the difference between them and the mujahideen who continue their stuggle against over half a million soldiers/police in Kashmir even today. The death of every Indian soldier is being celebrated in Indian occupied Kashmir by Indian citizens today. So you open your eyes!

Omar

This is in response to OMAR1974 (re#26).

You really are ffrustrated, aren`t you? You simply are unable to hide your racial/religious hatred (that is why you refer to Indian women having the `saffron` mark, forgetting that there are more Muslims, Christians, and others in India than Pakistan).

Now, let me briefly comment on the points you make.

First, you say India is all about poor quality. Look who is talking! The Pakis cannot even make needles and pins without Chinese or other assistance.

May be we have had more aircraft losses than the (non)Islamic PAF. That is because our pilots fly more training missions than yours, and also, it is only the older aircraft that have problems. Indeed, over the next few years, we plan to phase out the older planes as new ones are inducted.

Our engineers and facilities are world class. That is why over HALF of all H-1 (hi-tech) work permits granted by the US go to Indians. Now, does that mean that our best and brightest are not opting for defence services? Not really. You see, due to our huge population, even after a large number of individuals joining private sector or going abroad, we do not have any shortage of bright and committed individuals. We are not intellectually bankrupt like the Pakis. By the way, all over the world, militaries are now having to try harder to attract the cream of the cream, and we are no exception.

Regarding your remark that Indians are not willing to die for their motherland, who do you think are responsible for kicking the butts of Paki soldiers in 1965, 1971, and now in Siachen and Kargil? If you read TIME (July 12, 1999), you will see Pakis telling tales of the heroic deeds of Indian soldiers. Remember, we Indians have survived over 7000 years. Inshallah, we will be the victors in every challenge that comes by. You cannot even begin to imagine the patriotic feelings among our men, women, and children irrespective of religion and background (am proud to say).

You wrongly claim that Indians in the state of Kashmir rejoice the shahadat of Indian soldiers. What`s the proof? From where do you get such information? From the `free`(Ha!Ha!) Paki press & media that has to print what the Islamic fundamentalist Paki government wants? By the way, a lot of Mohajirs and Balochis, Ahmadiyas and Sindhis also rejoice the death of Paki soldiers (the Paki military is dominated by arrogant Panjabis).

You refer to us as `kabutars` (pigeons). Pigeons are the symbols of peace. Yes, we are all for peace, but will defend our holy motherland at all costs; make no mistake.

Finally, a comment on how eagerly (unlike us), you Pakis keep coming up with ``numbers`, ``figures`` and ``facts``. This is an old trick to make the gullible believe the trash you dish out. Where do you get all those ``facts``? From your fundamentalist media whose job is to churn out crap (otherwise they will be screwed like Najam Sethi)? Or from your corrupt generals who need to keep your sinking morale up (otherwise the Pakistani people will start asking about what happened to all those billions of rupees)?

Stop hating blindly. Think. Analyze.

Let there be peace and tolerance.

Najib: All figures are corroborated from INDIAN sources. As for HAL, i really wouldn`t boast too much about its abilities, the proof is in the pudding/crash rates of al locally assembled aircraft. If Sweden had a rough time even in partnership with Bae in developing the flight control fly by wire system of the Grippen with crashes of prototypes, i seriously doubt India can master the technology, even with imported Russian and U.S technology with which its aircraft are to be built from supplied kits for the most part. Indians bend with the wind, thats why they survived, they compromised and adapted to the ways of those that invaded them for thousands of years. In doing so, they compromised their identity for survival on a regular basis. Indians therefore are a malleable people w/o a real identity. This is the basic reason why they feel they cannot lose Kashmir, because Assam, West Bengal etc will be next. This small crisis alone showed how thin India`s resources are spread. And this is just the begining. Brace up for more. India get out of Kashmir! And take all quisling `muslims` of the Chief minister-collaborator of Kashmir`s ilk with you. They wouldn`t be alive for 24 hours w/o your security protection.

Re: Omar and Najib

Gentlemen, lets keep this interact civil and lets refrain from nationalistic bravados in these posts. Lets not forget, regardless of which side of the border we hail from, that men are dying daily and a whole new generation will grow up with a sense of animosity towards each other; what have we really gained as nation from this mess?

Najib # 22

I hope this does not offend you, but your defense of India at times sounds too shrill. I respect your sense of civic patriotism and responsibility towards India, but your repeated cries of indignation only cause to raise questions about your own sense of patriotism. Remember what Winston Churchill once said: patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

As to the Pakistani reinforcements, you have to remember that what Sharif-Clinton agreed to was for a political settlement, not a military one, to the crisis. There is still a state of war going on and the tactical situation is still fluid. Until the Indian ops are done and the Indian military goes into a down cycle, prudence demands, just like your naval buildup, that Pakistani units stay there too in the interests of reciprocity.

I am not going get into the details of trying to convince you one way or another and you are entitled to your own believes, but let ask you these questions. Do you really think this op was ad hoc? What has India won? Can India effectivily prevent the ingresses along the LoC now and if not, do you think that the Indian military situation has improved overall as result of Kargil?

Re: Omar # 21

Welcome back ol` buddy!

In the present day and age, a nation`s military power is simply an extension of its economic viability. It is a symbiotic relationship and in the case of Siachen, the value of Siachen is in political terms, and its has no military utility. Why do you think Zia`s initial reaction was to ignore it and he only ordered Pakistani units to deploy there to mollify the pro-Kashmiri lobby.

The final control of Siachen, by either side, will not greatly effect the final disposition of the LoC and Siachen is simply an irritant, not a solution to the final political settlement of Kashmir. Does Siachen justify the opportunity costs being suffered by Pakistan`s military?

On a tangent, the high rate of accidents which have plaqued the IAF can to an extent be blamed on the three conditions you listed, but the real reason is the IAF has no modern jet trainer for converting its pilots to its advanced fighters. Presently, the IAF is talking about procuring an advanced trainer and is thinking about the German Alpha jet and BAe Hawker, but the nature of Indian bureaucracy is delaying a final choice in the matter.

Also, if memory serves me right, the IAF was forced to trade its combat readiness for a high rate of maintaince in its aircraft; a cruel choice for any air force. I tend to agree with your overall analysis, but where I disagree with you is on the committment of the IAF pilots. It takes an exceptionally brave man to put his life on the line in a hurtling piece of machinery, specially when he knows that the odds are against him from coming back alive. In this case, the Indian bureaucracy seems to have done what PAF had always hoped for, because it has effectivily grounded the IAF.

Air combat ops are exteremely unforgiving. This applies to both PAF and IAF pilots. There is 1/3 that the aircraft will ``flame out`` on takeoff; then there is 1/3 chance it will suffer a malfunction in-flight and crash and then there is 1/3 chance that it will crash on landing. Every time time a pilot goes up, the odds increase against him and sooner or later he will have to pay the piper and if he is lucky, he will live to tell about it.

Re: Zeemax # 24

In short, Pakistan would strave from a lack of critical imports, i.e. oil! :)

I will get back to you on this, because I will have to input the factors into my computer sim and ``create`` such a scenerio to know what might happen. On a prima facie level, given the fact that the Indians are presently without a carrier in the region, Indian interdiction would seem to be high risk, because their surface assets would be vunerable. Mind you it can be done, but the question is just what costs are the Indians willing to pay for it.

Pakistan Navy is operating 24hr maritime patrols and it is keeping a sharp eye over sea lanes into Karachi, so the element of suprise is not with the Indians. A naval blocade is traditionally an act of war and that is a political decision and that would depend more on political imperatives than a militarily rationale.

Re: anarayan # 23

``Dear Feroz`` !!!! When did you get so formal?

That info on the T-80UD came from an article in the Washington Post about a month ago; search the e-archives of the WP and you should find the article in question. The comment on the pay of Indian forces came from India Today and so did the middle class comment on its officer corps. IAF`s lack of spare parts came from a variety of aviation journals; notably Jane`Defence Weekly, which brought up the issue of a lack of a trainer for the IAF.

Glad to keep you amused!

Siachin`s value: Feroz, if Pakistan hadn`t stopped India at Siachin the skirmishes would now be going on around Gilgit, Chitral, Skardu, Hunza valley etc. So, we had to draw a line in the ice to prevent the Indians coming down on our side of the Loc. The Siachin dispute shows the true face of India. Pakistan has been aclling for the area to be demilatrized by both sides, without either giving up its claims, and with 3rd party verification (U.S sattelites) this would be a simple matter to implement thus ending a useless military confrontation that is costly to both countries in lives and finances, and benefits neither in any tangible way, unless Indian military planners see it as a useful drain on Pakistani finances and are using it to constrain Pakistan`s ability to finance new weapon systems. That is really the only thing that makes sense. Just goes to show how miserable India is as a country which suffers from widespread poverty yet, it prefers to spend hundreds of millions of dollars annually on a useless conflict, resources which is both countries mutually set aside could help eradicate illiteracy for starters in the subcontinent. Indians are generally useless people. The only language them seem to understand is when you knock out their teeth first, before talking to them. Talking is useless anyway, waste of time/money if we look at the `results` of past talks. Thick headed, illiterate, lungi clad, half starving, pagan idol worshipping fools piloting

Su-31s! (grin)

Btw, difference between U.S and Indian citizenship, since both are ethnically/religiously diverse. In India, there is a lack of opportunity for the masses. Economics is a great leveler in the U.S.

Re: ``By the way, a lot of Mohajirs and Balochis, Ahmadiyas and Sindhis also rejoice the death of Paki soldiers (the Paki military is dominated by arrogant Panjabis).``

Well Well Well!! Why do all Indians talk crap all the time?? I am a decent of people who migrated from India, and many people like me rejoice only when we (the gallant Pak Army) knock down Indian Migs and Indian butts! like we did at Pathankot in `65!

Re: Omar1947

U should know better about how a freedom fighter is more capable than an army wala. Ha..Ha..Ha

I for one don`t care about Kashmir being a part of India or not. All i am bothered about is how to keep my country from becoming a Hindu Pakistan.

Iconoclast

Re: Omar1974 #31

While you are ranting and raving against Indians, can you care to explain the Pakistani government`s policies in this calendar year ? First, Nawaz invites Vajpayee to Lahore. The India visit is celebrated with pomp and festivities. People start getting visas to Pakistan and celebraties start shuttling between Delhi and Lahore. The two PMs decide to move from their stated positions and negotiate on Kashmir and Vajpayee pays his tributes at the Minar. Then, all of a sudden, Pakistan sends hundreds of mujahedin to Kargil and carries out a war like situation for the last few weeks. The mujahedins are trained to fight high altitude warfare and possess Stinger missiles etc. Thirdly, when things are heating up, Nawaz goes to Washington D.C., agrees to withdraw the Mujahedin and work towards peace.

Can you explain the rationale behind this series of schizophrenic actions ? Pakistan talks about internationalizing the Kashmir issue, as if this would make a big difference. The reality is that Pakistan has just suffered a massive defeat in its Kashmir policy. The defeat is not just militarily but from a strategic point of view. It can never again violate the LOC, as it has officially accepted the sanctity of the LOC. India is going to beef up the LOC patrolling to unprecedented levels. Moreover, this conflict proves that nuclear weapons have not provided Pakistan with any major advantage. When push came to shove, it had to back off. Finally, this episode has strongly united Indian society. Note that there were no communal riots in India and even the Kashmiris did not create any major internal problems.

The fact of the matter is that your country is led by third class people who do not have any idea about how to build a strong, powerful nation. While you can give gaalis to Indians, you should realize that your nation is going to the dogs. Just look at the ethnic, sectrian violence, complete breakdown in law and order, pervasive corruption, rock bottom literacy levels, massive overpopulation, violent fanaticism and the myriad number of problems in Pakistan. Yet it wants to play games with India and waste its resources. The subcontinent has seen a number of muslim administrations in the past such as Afghans, Mughals, Nizam etc. If you compare all of them based on socio-economic conditions, Pakistan will rank at the bottom.

Re: OMAR1974

I think you finally caught the gist of my article. The financial drain of conducting ops in Siachen is preventing the periodic modernization of our armed forces and we can keep up the effort, but soon the law of diminishing returns will start to apply. Siachen is akin to an anchor being tied around our legs and unless we cut it off, it will take us to the bottom with it.

Since you have such an ardent interest in military aviation, let me say this. If you are flying a fighter and it has been structurally damaged, in a combat sorte, you can to an extent ``dead stick`` the injured fighter, but soon you will be faced with a choice of ejecting out of the crippled aircraft or riding it into the ground by ``augering it``. Around this time, in the back of your head there will be echo of what every cadet pilot is taught: the aircraft can be replaced, but you can not!

What are you going do? Remember, your country has more invested in your training, skills, and experince as fighter pilot than it has in the aircraft you`re flying. It takes, on an average 4 years to graduate from an air force academy plus 2 years of flight training and then another 1-2 years of conversion training to become accustomed to the aircraft type you would be flying. This does not include the years of ``on hand`` training learning the flight performance envelope of the aircraft and fully learning how to operate its avionics suite to its fullest potential.

On the other hand, it takes approximately two months to produce a fighter aircraft. If Siachen is the aircraft, the finances are the pilot and the cost does not justify the expenditure.

On a different note; never ever under any condition underestimate your adversary!

Your comment that if it had not been for Siachen, the fighting would be in the environs of Gilit is an apt point. The LoC is a political problem personified within a military facade and its final solution will rest with a political settlement, not a military one. In a strategic sense, Kargil will force the Indians to be more deeply committed to LoC militarily, but will not offer the Indians any sense of long term security in the region either.

These are some of the defense related projects presently being undertaken by Genesis Real Time, a software company in Pakistan, for Pak armed forces.

AIR COMBAT MANEUVERING INSTRUMENTION SYSTEM

The Air Combat Maneuvering Instrumentation (ACMI) System was a joint effort between the Air Weapons Complex and Genesis Real Time. The software of this system was developed by Genesis Real Time and the airborne and ground based hardware by the AWC.

The purpose of the ACMI system is to aid the debriefing of PAF pilots after an air to air combat training mission. The ACMI system consists of airborne data recorders installed on all aircrafts taking part in a training mission. These recorders record the aircraft`s flight parameters. After the completion of a mission, the ground based debrief system assimilates all the aircrafts data and recreates the whole mission in 3D computer generated graphics for the pilots debriefing.

In this system, the mission can be played at various speeds. The users have several viewing options. They can select the pilots view and view the mission from the cockpit of any selected aircraft. Or they can select the perspective view to view the maneuvers from any point of the exercise space outside the aircraft by controlling the viewing angle and distance.

The system can display a single view on the monitor screen or split the viewscreen to show 2 or 4 independent views on the same monitor. The user can configure each split section independently to provide several different perspectives of the same scenario.


PROJECTS FOR CELSIUSTECH NAVAL SYSTEMS AB (Sweden)

Software Consultancy and Development Services

Genesis Real Time had signed a contract with CelsiusTech to provide various software consultancy and development services in 1997. This contract was renewed for another year in 1998.

Logistics Database

Designed and developed a Logistics Database software for one of CelsiusTech`s customers. Genesis was also responsible for carrying out front-end analysis and generation of a format requirement specification.

Visit CelsiusTech [http://www.celsiustech.se]


SKY TRACKER & SKY NAVIGATOR

Sky Tracker and Sky Navigator constitute a suite of software for the ground-based tracking of remotely piloted vehicles (RPV`s)/unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV`s). This software suite was developed for the Air Weapons Complex when it embarked on a project for the indigenous development of UAV`s in the middle of 1998. The software gets the UAV`s GPS positional data from a radio data link. This data is used to show the position of the UAV as a 2D plot along with essential UAV data like, speed, altitude, heading etc. This plot can be overlaid onto area maps also. This information is used by the pilot for flying the UAV beyond visual range.

The software has mission planners with way-points and labels for landmarks and mission timers. It can log the mission data and then later play it back for evaluation. The software also controls the main video link directional antenna to ensure clear reception of the Video Data from the UAV.

Sky Tracker is optimized for the use of the UAV`s pilot, feeding him critical data required for control of the vehicle beyond visual range. Sky Navigator is optimized for the use of the video / intelligence operator who controls the video data from the UAV.

These software have been developed keeping in mind the requirements of local as well as international customers.


CBT ON THE STARTING FUEL SYSTEM OF AN AIRCRAFT FOR PAF

Developed an interactive multimedia CBT application on the Starting Fuel System of an aircraft whose duration is 30 CBT minutes. The work on the application involved complete design (outlines, flows, storyboards, scripting, etc.), and development. The CBT was fully interactive and was based on audio narratives, text, custom graphics, custom animation, pictures and video (with custom narration) for just in time concept reinforcement. Hyperlinking was also used to allow the student to jump to related areas instantly. In addition to the basic lesson, it consisted of a virtual laboratory where the student could see the working of an aircraft`s starting fuel system by trying out different controls. The CBT application also allowed the student to take timed quizzes. All information generated from the quiz such as student`s name, time & date of quiz, score, time taken, etc. was stored in a database. This data can be acccessed later by the instructor or by the student.

ERICCSON GIRAFFE AIR SURVEILLANCE RADAR SIMULATOR

The purpose of this simulator is to make a new radar operator familiar with an Ericsson Giraffe Air Surveillance radar. The system simulates full functionality of the radar. The instructor can train the operators with various target profiles and numbers. The simulator software is under development for the Pakistan Army`s School of Army Air Defence. It runs on a custom built console (also under development) which is based on the actual radars operator console.

Here is a list of some more weapons projects and weapons being made by Pakistani defense industries.

The following systems are being made by Dr. A.Q. Khan Labs, at Kahuta

Surface to Air guided missiles (Anza Mk I and II);
Anti Tank Guided missile Weapons System; Anti Tank Mine Clearing Charges; Remote Control Mine Exploders; MBRLS (Multi Barrel Rocket Launcher);
Laser Range Finders; Laser Threat Senors; Laser
Actuated Target; Laser Aiming Device; Digital Goniometers; TOW Missiles Modules; Add-on Reactive Armor kits.

Also, the following systems and sub-systems are in R&D status or in prouction with the following firms:

ATCOP Drivers Night Sight for T-Series Tanks
ATCOP Intergrated Fire Control Systems
ATCOP Laser Range Finders for T-Series Tanks
(Al Technique Corp. Pakistan)

DNVP-1A Drivers Night Viewers
AN/PVS-5A Night Vision Goggles Third Generation
(Insitute of Optronics)

100mm APFSDS Tank Barrels
(Machinecrafts, Pvt. Lahore)

155mm; 130mm, 125mm, HEAT SABOT, FE, projectiles plus 125mm; 81mm, 75mm mortar rounds and small arms munitions
(Pakistan Ordnance Factories)

Below is a list of other defense related firms in Pakistan:

Insitute of Optronics
Pakistan Ordnance Factories
Dr. A.Q. Khan Labs
Al-Technique Corp.
Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (Aircraft Manufacturing Complex; Mirage and Chinese aircrafts)
Heavy Industries (production M113 APCs and Khalid MBT)
Machinecrafts
Alsons Industries
Military Vehicile Research and Development Establishment.

Amit #33 or 31? Anyway, Sure there are a ton of problems in Pakistan (I never said there weren`t), but until all of Kashmir is part of Pakistan, and India ends its illegal occupation of Kashmir, India and Indians shall remain orgre(s)#1 for almost all Pakistanis.

Omar

Re: OMAR1974 Reply #: 37

``... but until all of Kashmir is part of Pakistan, and India ends its illegal occupation of Kashmir,India and Indians shall remain orgre(s)#1 for almost all Pakistanis``.

We HAVE (unwittingly) admitted it, have we !

At least spare us the rhetoric on ``self-determination of kashmiris`` and ``freedom struggle``. If you (ever) thought that India did`nt see through your BS, think again.

Interesting article Mr. Khan (though

I do not share many of your analysis

and conclusions).

Here is a link to an article by Eric Arnett

that deals partly with the air thinking on the part of India and Pakistan (with a relevant reference to retired Air Marshal Ayaz Ahmed Khan`s article ``Challenge of the Indian Air Threat`` in The Nation in 1997). The article

itself is larger in scope (title: ``Nuclear

Stability and Arms Sales to India: Implications for U.S. Policy).

http://www.armscontrol.org/ACT/august/arnett.html

Ilanjetchenni

Re: zeemax

Okay, to answer your question about an Indian blocade of Pakistan`s shipping lanes, the answer is that it can be effected with varing results.

On the computer sim, what became clear was that Indian Navy has the means to chortle Pakistan shipping lanes, but it will have to operate around 250-500kms from the Pakistani coast, within Pakistan`s exclusive economic zone and it will need to deploy its surface assets through the entire lenght of Pakistan`s coastline. This type of a deployment is ideal if the intention is to stop smuggling, but it limits Indian tactical options in a war. Such a deployment would put the Indian Navy`s surface assets within the combat radius of PAF`s fleet of Mirage Vs, which are armed with Exocet AIM-39 (range 45kms)and Harpoon ASM (range 85+kms)missiles. The effective range of Mirage Vs is about 1500+ kms and given the relativily short distance to the Indian ships, their capacity to loiter over the target area would be around 30-45 minutes. Thus, to avoid this threat, the Indian can only move east, because if they move west and north they will heading towards the Arabian peninsula, which raises a whole set of other problems.

Another fact to be considered is that since the Indians are without a carrier, since Vikrant is being consigned to scrap, the Indian Navy would find itself without any early warning and effective fighter cover in case if Pakistan launches an ``vampire`` - air attack. Yes, the Indians out number the Pakistani Navy in total maritime surveillance aircraft (4:1), they can warn the Indian Navy, but they can not provide an effective CAP over Indian assets, which would limit Indian Navy`s overall operational intent in interdicting Pakistani shipping lanes.

This does not mean that Pakistani shipping will have an easy time, and if the Indians deploy their assets, tactically, outside of the Straits of Hormuz, they can easily intercept Pakistan bound ships. The question then is how to identify ships bound for Karachi and the Indians can not board any vessel they like, because that would be a violtion of the admirality laws on commerce on the open seas and the biggest patron of this international law priniciple is America. I highly doubt the Indian Navy wants the American naval assets in the Arabian Gulf to moniter its movements.

The only trick to circumvent the Indian blocade, and it worked in the sim, would require the cooperation of the Iranians. If the Iranians would give safe passage, the ships bound for Pakistan can sail within Iranian territorial waters, upon reaching the western end of Hormuz, near Bahrain, and thus, simply pass into Pakistani territorial waters. Iranians might be convinced to do this, but then in return they would surely ask Pakistan to do something about the violence between sunnis and shias in Pakistan.

Hence, the whole enterprise devolves into a series of trade-offs. What is the final cost and how bad does one want to pay for it!

Hope this helps.....

Re: anarayan # 23

This belated reply is in response to your question of where I got the information on the high accident rate of the Indian Air Force. That information came from an article in The Times of India, June 13, 1998, which reported the 1998 Report of the Comptoller and Auditor-General of India. According to that report, IAF lost 187 aircraft and 63 pilots killed between 1991-97. Of the 187 aircraft, which crashed 147 were totally destroyed and beyond repair.

In a similar period PAF lost 35 aircraft.

This fact was further complimented by the Military Balance 1998/1999 of the Insitute for Strategic Studies, published by the Oxford University Press. MB`s report said that the high rate of IAF accidents was due to the fact that IAF was still using Kiran Mark II and Polish Iskra basic trainers and it was using the MiG 21UB as an advanced trainer for conversion purposes. The IAF students could not handle the MiG 21UB, because while they were accustomed to react within minutes on the Kiran, the MiG was forcing them to react within seconds. The IAF pilots were having spatial problems of reacting and antcipating situations ahead of time and this was severely impacting their sense of situtional awareness.

Situational Awarness is a term, which means that the pilot must be aware of his immediate surroundings and he must have at all times a 3D mental picture, based on the data available to him. Also, he must at all times know the orientation of his aircraft to the ground, while being mindful of his vector, altitude, speed and the energy ``bleed`` of his aircraft; thrust to weight ratios and how to continually maximize aircraft performance rates while in flight.

I think that it was Najib who mentioned that IAF suffers a high accident rate than IAF, because it pilots fly more sorties and thus log more flight hours.

This is not true either. According MB, the most hours logged per year was by the United States Air Force, which averaged about 230 hrs per year for its pilots; PAF was second with its pilots arveraging 220 hrs per year. Israeli Air Force came in at 180 hrs per year and the IAF average was 130 hrs per year.

Hope this answers your questions about the source of my infomation.

Re: Anarayan

My dear An, do you really think Kashmiris if given the choice, with a free, fair and transparent plebiscite would vote to remain part of India? I seriously doubt that India would get more than 10% of the Kashmiri vote. The formula for self-determination called for by U.N resolution in 1949 is really a face saving way for India to end its illegal occupation of J&K. In fact its a decent way of telling a thief (India) that we`ll, VOTE U OUT, rather than merely kick you out, which in all justice India deserves fully. You people are lucky to be treated so well, you should be treated the way India has treated its own neighbors. Get out of Kashmir while you can with some pride left.

Basically, I guess I need to teach you a history lesson, not the crap they taught you in school growing up which you evidently swallowed hook, line and sinker.

British India had a number of princely states, these states were to be given the free choice to join either Pakistan or India, no other choice was offered. Now that was the first principle. Even Indian historiofabricators should have no problems with this. Now, what India did in fact do was to deprive Munawadar, Hyderabad and Junadgah of this free choice and used force to insure they joined the Indian Union. Sardar Patel is still eulogised for this act. When this occured, the rules of the game changed. India had come out and set the precedent for breaking the basic principle on which the partition of the subcontinent was based in 1947. What this meant was that India has defacto stated that all Hindu majority states were going to be forced to join India, no ifs, ands or buts about. Now, the contrapositive of this principle is also equally simple, i.e Muslim majority areas should thus join Pakistan. You see it was India that abrogated the basic principle of partition, not Pakistan. Therefore, based on logic and fair play alone, the Maharaja`s signiture on the instrument of accession to India, AFTER he had lost control of the state was tantamount to signing a ratti ka kagaz (worthless piece of paper), which had no significance and cannot be used to legitimise Indian occupation of J&K. The U.N General Assembly decided that hey, lets ask the people of Kashmir which state they want to join. This populist principle was not the principle on which British India had been partitioned, neverthless, there is probably no doubt that the other 3 Indian princely states that were annexed would probably have, if they had held a majority vote, voted to join the Indian Union. Similarly, there is little doubt that the Kashmiri people if consulted in 1947, would also have voted to join Kashmir. It is India ironically that introduced this new principle into the partition process. The U.N General Assembly merely gave it sanction in International law. The process of partition is still unfinished today as a result of Indian-Hindu duplicity, typical of the Hindu-bunya mentality of wanting it all (the cake and eating it as well), willing to squeeze every last drop from the poor peasants given the opportunity-chance, without a care (this is an excellent characterization of India`s International behavior). Now, no where was it ever stated that the Kashmiris had the right to independence, as opposed to accession to either India or Pakistan if that is what your comments are implying.

It is only the norms of democracy, and the seemingly intractable nature of the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan that have given birth to this new notion of a third way.

Any questions? I just call a spade, a spade. No need to mince words.

Omar

India; Applying Pakistan`s historical lessons

The lesson from history which Pakistan must learn is that India cannot be trusted. First J.P.K Nehru lied in promising to settle the dispute amicably, and in 1962 when India was being whipped soundly by China, India got the U.S to make Pakistan to forswear any move on Kashmir in return for a promise to settle the dispute after the Indo-Chinese war. Ayub Khan, a simple soldier took their word. Once the crisis was over, the Indians became tone-deaf to the word Kashmir again. Pakistan should have seized this golden opportunity in 1962, when it was at the height of its military power and soundly whipped Indians like the common horse theives they are. For they as a country and people are no better. History has taught us that the only language that gets through to their thick skulls is when you knock their teeth out. Then one can `talk` to them. India get out of Kashmir, or the only way your soldiers will leave will be in bodybags. And if Indians wanna play games with the dead bodies of Pakistani soldiers KIA (See Dawn today), well, just remember that 2 can play this game. We can send your soldiers arthiees (cremated) back, not the bodies next time. See how you guys like that. Aglee baar hum un ka achii tarha Antim Sanskar jaisay Indian movies may dikhaatay hein, KAR KE aap ko wapaas karein gay. See how their near and dear react to that. I think it may now be well past due for some Indian embassies to be bombed around the world. I`m surprised the mujahideen have not already begun a systematic campaign worldwide. Its really the only way to force a settlement in the long term. 300-400 Indian dead every month in Kashmir/Siachin/LOC/Worldwide is an acheivable/imposeable cost. Over a period of a few years the Indian army can be thoroughly demoralized in Kashmir. Funding should be trebled. The mujahids have already started taking on the nest of vipers in their own dens (ex.recent attack on BSF camp inside Kashmir), and the IAF and the Indian army head on directly, as in Kargil. This is a good begining. Let us have more!

Omar

Clarification on previous post

When I said 300-400 dead I meant on an average monthly basis from here on in. Now consider the following, Kargil only cost India about 323 dead (offically doctored Indian govt stats), add to that at least another 200 dead they won`t admit to publically. Well, all that effort and it only got us about 500 Indian casulaties, after all that planning. And did it hurt India? Yes. Now what can we do to hurt India more, and raise casualties. Well, 1 SA-7 handheld SAM is not too expensive, nor is an operation requiring at most a dozen operatives in India to secure a location/residence, establish a cover, near either an IAF base or a major civilian airport and shoot down either IAF fighters or transport aircraft, or a large civilian airliner right in the heart of their country from a rooftop location. The objective must be to make them feel vulnerable. For that reason one must strike indiscriminately, relentlessly, and at virtually any target. In fact the target list neeeds to be expanded by the mujahids if we are gonna get Indians to really sit up and take notice and realize Kashmir is a no-win proposition and they are not willing to pay the cost in human/financial terms that will be imposed on India. This needs to be made personal. Yeah, it could be YOU (if you`re Indian) on that plane buddy, reading this right now. So tell me, is it worth YOUR dying so that India can continue to oppress and occupy Kashmir and Kashmiris against their wishes? And steal Pakistani land? Why is India so afraid to hold an Impartial plebescite? Supposedly as they never tire of telling us and the world, its the world`s largest democracy! So arranging one should be too difficult to manage for them IF they want to. And they don`t want to YET. So they must forced into it. Its useless talking to them. They (the Indians) should all become targets. Tell me, O` Indians, how does it feel to become a target? The only good Indian? A dead one. India GET OUT OF Kashmir!

Omar

Re:Omar#41-43

Since you wish to give lessons in history, do you know that Patel had offered Kashmir to Jinnah in exchange for Hyderabad around 1948 ? Jinnah had rejected the offer because he valued Hyderabad more than Kashmir and he felt that he had some chance at getting it. You know quite well that Hyderbad had an overwhelming hindu majority ruled by a muslim ruler. Moreover, Jinnah was also negotiating with the Rajput rulers of Rajasthan although their kingdoms were hindu majority. Jinnah was willing to accept any conditions which would attract them to Pakistan. The reality is that partition was a free for all. Both sides wanted to grab as much territory as possible and they acted in very similar fashion. The only difference is that India managed to get the maximum territory.

As far as Kashmir is concerned, here is a novel suggestion. Why doesn`t Pakistan ask the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) to fight assembly elections in Kashmir ? APHC can continue with its pro Pakistan ideology and demand UN supervisors to ensure no rigging. If APHC can win the elections and form a state government, it would be the clearest signal that Kashmiris want out. It would marginalize Farooq Abdullah and provide a genuine representative to talk to. In 1970, Mujib had fought elections under Pakistani constitution and won it overwhelmingly. As a result, he became the voice of the Bengalis ? Why doesn`t the APHC do the same ? We don`t have to wait till the UN plebiscite to find out what Kashmiris really want.

Finally a thought on your crude, disgusting remarks about Indians and our soldiers. The feelings are mutual on this side. Let me tell you that Pakistan came within inches of getting nuked out of this planet, which made Nawaz run to Washington with his tail between his legs. The mood in India is getting really nasty against Pakistan and people are reaching their limits. If Pakistan keeps this up, India will not be restrained in the future. In a unrestricted nuclear exchange, we may get hurt but you will be vaporized. If you behave like animals, we will do the same and even worse. People like you are a real representative of the Pakistani establishment and their subhuman mindset.

People in India are itching to have an all out war with you and finish it once and for all. However, we will do it with intelligence. First, the government is going to place a three tier security cordon around Kashmir to ensure that Mujahedin cannot enter the heart of Kashmir and all conflict is localized at the borders. I hope that they put in internal fencing within Indian territory to restrict access to most of Kashmir, while extensively landmining the outer areas. Secondly we should set Pakistan on fire. We should send in trained and motivated subversives to carry out mass scale terrorism in Pakistan. We should seek the help of Iranians, Uzbeks and other Central Asians who cannot tolerate Pakistanis and the Taliban to help out. Thirdly we should rope in the Indian muslims to go to Kashmir and lobby them to support India. Fourthly we should do everything possible to crush Pakistan`s residual economy. Wherever, Pakistan has any exports, India should go in and outprice Pakistani goods. If there are any successful businesses, Indian mercenaries should sabotage them. We should contaminate the Indus river waters to ensure that agriculture fails completely in Pakistan. Finally, we should deploy an arsenal of nuclear weapons and a clear plan for the total destruction of Pakistan and Afghanistan, if we need to. It should be a deadly series of strikes that takes out all the urban centers, the military installations and crush these two places once and for all.

Can we keep the discussion civil?

Ilanjetchenni

there is some amount of honesty in your writing. but the problem is that most pakistanis believe kashmir to be some kind of a real estate issue. it is as if getting control over kashmir will solve all the india pakistan problems. the problem between india and pakistan is not the piece of real estate that goes by the name of kashmir. it has a lot to do with the pakistani mindset. after all just 28 years ago, it did have control over east pakistan-what is now known as bangladesh. why did it lose control over this area? the problem pure and simple is that in the first place pakistan has to come to terms with itself. i believe that once the pakistani army its establishment and the people come to terms with themselves, they will stop indulging in such juvenile gimmicks, like the one they tried in kargil. it is true that india did commit a blunder in the sense that it allowed the intruders to settle over such an extended area. and for that we have paid with the lives of our young and valiant soldiers. but it is time that the pakistani establishment realised the fighting the might of the indian army is not like a cricket match. supporting the khalistani militants did not yield any pay off. so supporting the kashmiri militants also is not going to yield dividends. like the punjabis , the kashmiris in india also did not ``rise to the pakistani`` expectations and support such subversive acts. the reason is quite simple. indians unlike the pakistanis are quite at ease with india. and this is true inspite of all the religious and caste divisions. let us face it. there is no substitute for pluralistic society, even though we too have no dearth of fundamentalists who would like to make india a hindu version of pakistan. thank god, they don`t succeed.

In a major diplomatic and political setback to India, the Human Rights Watch on Thursday called on the international community to suspend all military ties with India because of the massive violations of human rights by its military in Kashmir.

``France, Germany, Russia, Britain, United States and India`s other trading partners should suspend all military aid and sales and all programmes of military cooperation with India,`` the Human Rights Watch demanded.

The demand was made in a report titled ``Behind the Conflict in Kashmir`` that includes a scathing indictment of the Indian security forces and details their horrendous rapes, killings and torture of Kashmiri civilians.

The international community, the Human Rights Watch demanded, should also suspend joint military exercises, until India provides greater accountability on cases of disappearances, torture, and summary killings by its forces in Kashmir and disarms all state-sponsored paramilitary groups operating in Kashmir.

``At the annual World Bank-sponsored donors meeting on India, participant countries should publicly state that continued economic support for India should not be seen as support for the Indian government`s human rights policies,`` the organisation demanded.

``In the statement, and in private and public meetings with Indian government officials, members of the donor group should raise concerns about deteriorating conditions in Doda and other border districts and press India to allow greater access to these areas and other parts of Kashmir to international organisations,`` the Human Rights Watch recommended.

``They should press India to invite the UN special rapporteurs and the working groups to visit Kashmir. They should also raise concerns about attacks on human rights defenders in Kashmir.

``The diplomatic staff of India`s allies and trading partners should make a point of visiting areas of the state outside the Kashmir valley, particularly Doda, Rajouri and Punch, and ensure that their reports reflect current human rights conditions in these areas,`` the Human Rights Watch demanded.

The report said the escalation in fighting has made it urgent that the international community put pressure on India to end widespread human rights violations by its security forces in Kashmir, and on Pakistan to end its support for militant groups.

The 44-page report focuses on the border areas in southern Kashmir.

Human Rights Watch demanded the Indian government to probe summary executions, disappearances, rape and other assaults by its security forces in Kashmir.

``The government of India should immediately initiate an impartial investigation into reports that the Eighth Rashtriya Rifles Battalion in Doda has been responsible for summary executions, ``disappearances,`` rape, and other assaults on villagers,`` it said.

``Other army units and security personnel named in other incidents of abuse should also be investigated and members found responsible for abuse prosecuted and punished,`` the Human Rights Watch demanded.

``The government of India should disarm and disband all state-sponsored militias not established and regulated by law and prosecute members of such groups who have been responsible for extra judicial killings, ``disappearances,`` assaults, and other abuses.

``The government of India should establish a civilian review board to oversee any rehabilitation program for surrendered militants.

``This review board should have access to records on surrendered weapons and should review vocational training programs to ensure that the former militants are not compelled to serve in state paramilitary forces not established and regulated by law, or induced to take part in security operations that violate international human rights and humanitarian law.

ôAlthough the government of India has promised since 1993 to establish a centralised register of detainees accessible to lawyers and family members, this has never happened.

Nation Newsgroup: 16 July, 99

Re: Najib

At many places in this forum, you have written that the creation of Pakistan was ``wrong`` and ``illegal``.

If that is the case, then my friend all of India should be ruled by muslims just like the way it was ruled before the British came to India.

On the other hand, the Pakistanis should ask for all